Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Bull and Bear Signal Board" by the company, which helps in assessing the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators. The board is updated regularly to provide insights into gold price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - The price of gold is primarily referenced through Shanghai Gold in mainland China and London Gold internationally [6][7]. - Historical data indicates that in July 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 star, with a low valuation of over 4 stars in 2022. The period from 2011 to 2016 saw a prolonged bear market for gold, with significant opportunities for investment during this time [9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to an increase in gold prices, while an increase results in a decline [13][14]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1500 per ounce, which has risen due to inflation and labor costs. If gold prices fall below mining costs, it presents a significant investment opportunity [19]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases during such times [20][21]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Risk - Gold typically exhibits a volatility rate of around 31% and a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, which is comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock position. The risk level of gold is generally lower than that of average stock assets but higher than that of bond assets [24][25]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investment in gold can be approached through: 1. **Gold Funds**: These funds usually yield slightly lower returns than the actual gold price due to management fees and cash reserves. The annualized return for Shanghai Gold is approximately 6.40% [31][32]. 2. **Physical Gold**: This includes gold bars, coins (like the Panda Gold Coin), and jewelry. While physical gold tracks gold prices closely, there are risks of counterfeit products, necessitating reliable dealers [36][40]. Group 5: Current Market Insights - As of July 7, the price of a 30g Panda Gold Coin was 23,767, with a premium rate of 2.71% over Shanghai Gold priced at 771.30. The article suggests that purchasing physical gold from reputable dealers can mitigate risks associated with counterfeits [41].

最近市场又在讨论，啥时候站上3500点。 咱们估值表刚定期更新那会，市场讨论的是什么时候站上2000点。 因为当时市场在5星大熊市，指数几次上攻2000点，又跌回到一千多点，站上2000点很难。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘盘中上涨，到收盘略微下跌，还在4.8星。 大中小盘股微跌。 大盘股波动较小，中小盘下跌略多。 消费、医药等行业微涨。 昨天上涨较多的港股，今天下跌。 港股红利波动较小。港股科技股下跌多一些。 不过因为前段时间港股科技上涨，今天回调后还在正常估值。 暂时还没回到低估。 后来经历了2015年中小盘牛市、2016-2017年价值股牛市后，上证指数站上2000点，就没回到1000多点了。 到了这几年，市场又讨论，上证指数啥时候站上3000点、3100点、3200点、3300点··· 指数点数=估值*盈利。 盈利长期上涨，带动指数点数提升。 可能再过几年，讨论的是什么时候登上4000点、5000点了。 1. 有朋友问，不同星级下，会有什么投资机会？ 该如何投资呢？ 星级可以用来帮助判断市场整体的估值情况。 星级代表的是估值情况。 （1）5点几星 是估值最低的阶段，股票基金投资最好 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【第395期直播回放】 2025年7月初， 月薪宝投顾组合（点击蓝字查看） 连续上涨，创下历史新高。 有朋友问，月薪宝有哪些特点？收益来源是啥？ 近期上涨后，需要对月薪宝调仓吗？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0708 」即可观看直播回放。 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 月薪宝组合收益创新高 2025年7月初， 月薪宝投顾组合 迎来连续6个交易日的上涨，创下历史新高。 如下，是月薪宝组合成立以来的走势。 可以看到，尽管过去几年市场整体处于熊市，但月薪宝组合的表现，还是比较稳定的。 • 相对于组合的业绩基准，有明显的超额收益； • 成立以来，在11个季度中，有9个季度跑赢业绩比较基准，季度胜率81.82%。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 2. 有现金流的投顾组合：月薪宝 月薪宝组合，主要有下面三个特征。 （1）每年发放约6%的定期现金流 假设在2022年10月，月薪宝上线之初，投入10万元。 那么每周或每月，可以发放的现金流金额如下图。 回撤方面，通过40:60的股债配置策略，风险也控制 ...

Group 1 - Many investors start their investment journey with index funds [1] - There is a limited-time free course that introduces investment techniques for index funds [2] - To access the course, individuals can add the "Course Assistant" and reply with "Index Fund" to receive it [3] Group 2 - The course includes notes and mind maps to help learners quickly understand the course structure and learn more efficiently [3] - There is an option to click and read the original text for free learning on large family asset allocation courses [4]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market showed a positive trend with major indices rising, indicating a strong performance in both growth and value styles, particularly in the small and mid-cap sectors [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Market Performance - The CSI All Share Index surpassed 5000 points, nearing the closing levels seen after the last National Day holiday [2]. - All market caps, including large, mid, and small caps, experienced gains, with small-cap indices showing slightly higher increases [3]. - The growth style exhibited strong momentum, while the value style saw modest gains, typically being more resilient during downturns but less aggressive in upward trends [4][6][7]. - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced an overall increase, with technology stocks leading the gains, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 1.8% [8][9]. Investment Advisory Promotions - The company is offering a limited-time 50% discount on advisory fees for its investment portfolios, aimed at reducing costs for investors [10][12][13]. - The promotional period for the advisory fee discount is from July 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, applicable to all shares held during this time [13]. - The fee structure is designed to be investor-friendly, utilizing a "percentage + annual fee cap" model, which automatically selects the most cost-effective option for investors based on their investment amounts [15]. Investment Strategies - The company emphasizes a systematic investment approach, encouraging investors to adopt a "periodic but variable" strategy, investing more when valuations are low [22][33]. - The importance of adhering to a pre-defined investment plan to avoid emotional decision-making during market fluctuations is highlighted [32][33].

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Group 1 - The core concept of fund advisory is to address the issue where "funds make money, but investors do not" [4] - Fund advisory services are designed to help investors achieve better returns through professional guidance [5] - The emergence of fund advisory reflects the need for specialized advice in the investment sector, similar to other professional fields [2][3] Group 2 - Fund advisory is compared to other advisory roles, such as doctors for health issues and lawyers for legal problems, highlighting the importance of expert guidance [7]

Market Overview - The market experienced slight fluctuations with a minor decline, maintaining a rating of 4.9 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks like the CSI 300 saw minor declines, while small-cap stocks experienced slight gains [1] - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but reduced its losses by the close, with the Hang Seng Tech index showing slight gains [1] Monthly Investment Strategy - The "Yuexinbao" investment product has risen for six consecutive trading days, reaching a historical high [2] - A rebalancing of the Yuexinbao portfolio was conducted, reducing the stock allocation from around 40% to below 40% and increasing bond holdings [2][3] - From February last year to June this year, Yuexinbao saw an approximate increase of 15%, with the stock portion rising over 30% during the same period [2] Rebalancing Strategy - The stock allocation in Yuexinbao exceeded 45% after the previous increase, prompting a rebalancing on July 7 to restore the stock ratio to around 40% and bonds to 60% [3] - This rebalancing strategy is automated, allowing for a "buy low, sell high" approach without manual intervention [3][4] Economic Indicators and Valuation Metrics - Current market conditions show high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and low price-to-book (P/B) ratios across various indices, indicating a potential misalignment in valuation metrics [9][10] - For instance, the CSI 300 value index has a P/E ratio at the 69th percentile and a P/B ratio at the 31st percentile over the past decade [14] - The economic cycle has influenced these valuation metrics, with recent years experiencing a downturn in earnings growth, particularly in small-cap stocks [18][19] Investment Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding different valuation metrics during various economic cycles, suggesting that P/E ratios may not be reliable indicators in periods of earnings decline [27][28] - The article also highlights the potential for significant gains in sectors entering a recovery phase, as seen in the Hong Kong tech sector, which has recently experienced substantial earnings growth [25][26] Investment Products and Promotions - The company is offering a limited-time 50% discount on advisory fees for its investment products, aimed at reducing costs for investors [29][32] - The Yuexinbao investment product has adjusted its minimum investment threshold to 200 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [40] - A regular cash flow feature is available for the Yuexinbao product, catering to investors with ongoing cash flow needs [38][41]

Core Viewpoint - The article announces a promotional event offering a 50% discount on advisory fees for the Ding series investment advisory combinations, effective from July 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, benefiting all investors holding these combinations during the promotional period [5][18]. Summary by Sections Promotional Details - The annual fee cap is reduced from 360 yuan/year to 180 yuan/year during the promotional period for larger investments [4]. - For smaller investments, the percentage fee rate is uniformly lowered to 0.2% per year [4]. - The promotional offer applies to all shares held during the promotional period, including those purchased before the promotion [5]. Fee Comparison - A detailed comparison of advisory fees before and during the promotional period is provided, showing significant reductions for various investment combinations [8]. - For example, the Active Selection Index Enhancement combination's fee structure changes from a cap of 360 yuan/year and 0.4% per year to a cap of 360 yuan/year and 0.2% per year during the promotional period [8]. Company Initiatives - The company has been actively working to lower advisory fees, having previously reduced the percentage fee rates in April 2023 [17]. - The combined fee model of "percentage + annual fee cap" is designed to benefit both small and large investors, automatically selecting the more advantageous option for clients [14][15]. Cost Savings - Since the launch of the advisory combinations, the company has saved investors approximately 156 million yuan in fees by implementing lower rates and promotional offers [20]. - The average fee rate after the promotional event is expected to be around 0.05%-0.1% per year, which is among the lowest in the global advisory field [28]. Future Plans - The company intends to continue advocating for further fee reductions and additional promotional activities to benefit investors [22][28].

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