01 中信建投黄文涛：重构增长动能——2026年经济与市场展望【把握2026投资机会】 15:30-16:30 核心看点： 当前A股和港股正迈向"新四牛"上升走廊。在四方面力量的共同推动下，"新四牛"行情 将沿着上升通道逐步展开，中国股市的中枢将逐渐上移，预计2026年市场仍将延续"慢牛"格局。 嘉宾： 黄文涛丨中信建投证券首席经济学家 扫码预约 02 中金固收 | 混合型资产框架：可交债定转——中金固收2025债市宝典 15:30-16:30 核心看点： 固收资产的市场格局变化以及分析框架的最新应用及思考。 嘉宾 ：罗凡丨中金公司研究部固收分析师 扫码预约 03 中金李昭展望2026年全球资产配置：乘势而上【把握2026投资机会】 04 穿越科技周期的力量：用"固收+"思维做成长投资 16:00-17:00 核心看点： 2025年"固收+"市场热度不减，规模延续扩张态势。哪些资产将成为配置核心方向？绩 优基金经理如何管理成长风格的"固收+"产品？不妨以"固收+"为锚，"科技+制造成长"为主线，前 瞻布局高潜力科技赛道，手握穿越周期的稳健力量！ 嘉宾： 陈大烨丨鹏华基金混合资产投资部基金经理、权益投资负责人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core logic for global asset allocation in 2026 is to "follow the direction of credit expansion" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The hidden mainline of the market is that the direction of credit expansion determines the strength of assets and the flow of funds [3] - The past couple of years in the Chinese market have been characterized by "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce return assets," with the recognized scarce assets changing over time [3] - Key factors for future market judgment include whether the liquidity environment has been damaged and whether scarce assets can expand to a broader range [3] Group 2: Credit Expansion and Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 is framed around the "credit cycle," focusing on three main subjects of credit expansion [4] - In the Chinese market, the credit cycle is expected to experience a slowdown, with structural prosperity still present despite challenges [6] - The U.S. market is seeing a gradual recovery in the credit cycle, supported by fiscal and monetary easing, with no significant signs of bubble formation in AI investments [7] Group 3: Structural Opportunities in China - The overall credit cycle in China is expected to face challenges starting from Q4, but structural prosperity remains effective [9] - The correlation between market performance and economic expectations has increased, indicating a need to focus on structural trends for excess returns [9] - Three structural directions for prosperity include AI-driven trends, capacity cycle reversals, and external demand mapping [9] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong market in 2026 suggests limited index space, with potential growth coming from structural changes or unexpected pullbacks rather than pure valuation expansion [11] - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic valuation is currently at 11.4 times, indicating a position above the historical average, suggesting that the market is not "cheap" [11] Group 5: Recommended Investment Directions - It is advisable to maintain a moderate allocation to dividend assets to counter the weakening of the overall credit cycle [13] - Key sectors to focus on include AI software and hardware, electric new energy, chemicals, home furnishings, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with careful consideration of valuation and crowding [13] - A potential rise in China's PPI towards the end of this year could provide an opportunity for market shifts towards cyclical and certain consumer sectors [14]

Group 1 - The Asia-Pacific markets, particularly Japan and South Korea, experienced significant declines, with losses exceeding 3% on November 18 [1] - Gold prices, both spot and futures, fell below the $4000 per ounce mark, indicating a notable downturn in the commodity market [3] - The recent cautious stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts reflects concerns over employment risks and inflation, with a 42.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [7] Group 2 - India's gold imports reached $14.7 billion in October, marking a nearly 200% increase year-on-year, driven by consumer purchases during a five-day festival period [9] - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks will continue to support gold prices, estimating an average monthly purchase of 80 tons of gold from 2025 Q4 to 2026, with a target price of $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [10]

01 华泰张继强：新开局下的叙事与主线【把握2026投资机会】 15:00-16:00 核心看点： AI投资热潮会否迎来关键验证？全球"财政扩张+货币配合"将如何搅动市场？国内新旧 动能转换能否进入"右侧开花结果"？明年我们能否等来企业盈利的实质性改善？ 嘉宾： 张继强丨华泰证券研究所所长，总量研究负责人，固收首席分析师 扫码预约 02 中金陈健恒：中美新老经济分化加剧，债牛趋势更为确定 16:00-17:00 核心看点 ： 聚焦三大核心驱动力：出口放量，核电资本开支加速与技术升级，以及AI数据中心用电 结构变革。 嘉宾： 廖启华丨瑞银大中华区能源转型及新能源行业研究主管 严亦舒丨瑞银证券中国公共事业及新能源行业分析师 利林海丨瑞银证券中国公共事业及新能源行业分析师 徐宾丨瑞银证券中国研究部总监 核心看点： 中美新老经济分化加剧，股牛和债牛并不对立。全球财政政策持续宽松后，面临制约的 情况下，货币政策有望接力放松，且全球货币政策空间依然较为充足。中国今年在贸易顺差和财政 赤字创新高的情况下，经济和股市有支撑，明年这两个因素的同比拉动减弱，债券利率将重新加快 回落速度。在全球贸易和地缘和各国政策摩擦性增加的情况 ...

5、 上海海关透露，今年前10个月，上海市实现进出口3.71万亿元，同比增长5.2%， 增速高于全国整体水平1.6个百分点。其中，出口增长10.5%，进口增 长1.3%，且已连续7个月进口、出口双双增长。 1、 A股弱势震荡，锂矿概念股逆势爆发，福建本地股掀涨停潮，军工股火力全开；医药概念集体下挫，光伏板块调整。 截至收盘，上证指数跌0.46%报 3972.03点，深证成指跌0.11%，创业板指跌0.2%。A股全天成交1.93万亿元。 2、 香港恒生指数收盘跌0.71%报26384.28点；恒生科技指数下跌0.96%，恒生中国企业指数下跌0.74%。 电气设备、医药生物、有色金属、化工、银行板 块跌幅居前。南向资金净买入84.48亿港元，阿里巴巴获净买入近21亿港元。 1、 外交部发言人毛宁在例行记者会上强调，针对日本首相高市早苗涉台错误言论，中方已经并将继续向日方提出严正交涉和强烈抗议，严肃要求日方立 即反思纠错，收回错误言论，停止在涉华问题上制造事端。 另外，在二十国集团领导人峰会期间，李强总理没有会见日方领导人的安排。 1、 国务院副总理何立峰与德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔共同主持第四次中德高级别财金对 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 17, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total amount of 283 billion [1] - On the same day, 119.9 billion in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank continued net injections in the open market, with overnight repurchase rates rising approximately 14 basis points to around 1.51% due to tax periods and year-end bank liabilities [3][5] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.00% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was stable at 1.64% [8] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed increases: 30-year contracts rose by 0.33%, 10-year by 0.09%, 5-year by 0.05%, and 2-year by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Revenue - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.649 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue at 15.3364 trillion, up 1.7%, and non-tax revenue at 3.3126 trillion, down 3.1% [14] - The central government’s budget revenue was 8.1856 trillion, down 0.8%, while local government revenue was 10.4634 trillion, up 2.1% [14] Group 6: Foreign Holdings in Bond Market - As of October 2025, foreign institutions held 3.73 trillion in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.2% of the total custody amount [15] - Foreign institutions held 2.04 trillion in government bonds, 0.78 trillion in interbank certificates of deposit, and 0.75 trillion in policy financial bonds [15] Group 7: Global Macro - Japan's Q3 GDP showed a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.4%, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [17] - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a loose monetary policy stance to achieve a stable inflation target of 2% [17]

// 市场要闻 // 外交部发言人宣布，经中德双方商定，第四次中德高级别财金对话将于11月17日在北京举行。 财政部11月10日至11月19日将发行不超过477.1亿元电子式储蓄国债。其中，3年期最大发行额238.5亿元，票面年 利率为1.63%；5年期最大发行额238.6亿元，票面年利率为1.7%。 美联储将于北京时间11月20日公布货币政策会议纪要 。 这份文件将披露美联储官员对利率、通胀和经济前 景的讨论细节，为市场提供未来政策路径的线索。此外，英伟达将在北京时间11月20日凌晨披露财报。 11 月20日，1年期和5年期以上LPR将公布最新值。 此前公布的10月20日LPR显示，1年期LPR为3%，5年期 以上LPR为3.5%。两大报价均与前值保持一致。 11月21日，华为将发布AI领域的突破性技术，有望解决算力资源利用效率的难题。可将GPU（图形处理器）、 NPU（神经网络处理器）等算力资源的利用率，从行业平均的30%至40%提升至70%，显著释放算力硬件潜能。 2025迪拜航空展将于11月17日至21日举行 ，届时将有2架C919飞机和1架C909公务机"组团"亮相 。这是中国 自主研发的民用客机首 ...

Focus Review - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 6-month reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan to maintain liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan after accounting for maturing operations [3] - The PBOC has established a pattern of monthly liquidity injections, indicating a continued focus on maintaining a loose monetary environment amid increased growth demands [3] Equity Market - CITIC Securities suggests that China's capital market is transitioning from an emerging market to a mature market, with an increasing global business exposure for listed companies, which is foundational for a low-volatility bull market [5] - Huatai Securities predicts that the A-share profit cycle will likely recover in the first half of 2026, driven by positive signals from capacity inventory cycles and overseas expansion [6] - Galaxy Securities warns of a potential decline in market risk appetite as the year-end approaches, suggesting a focus on cyclical sectors and dividend stocks that may benefit from improved Sino-U.S. trade relations [7] Industry Research - HSBC Jintrust Fund highlights the storage industry as a sector with multiple opportunities, driven by policy shifts and increased demand, particularly from AI data centers, suggesting a strategic opportunity for high growth [12] -招商证券 identifies investment potential in sectors experiencing supply clearing, particularly in resources, consumer goods, and traditional machinery, recommending focus on quality leaders and low-inventory industries [13] - 嘉实基金 sees significant long-term growth potential in China's innovative pharmaceutical sector, suggesting that recent corrections are a market adjustment rather than an end to the growth trend [14] Asset Allocation - Guosen Securities indicates that the bull market may be entering its second phase, with economic conditions improving and a broadening market trend, particularly in technology and undervalued sectors like liquor and real estate [22]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 212.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 14, with a net injection of 71.1 billion yuan for the day [1] - A total of 626.2 billion yuan was injected into the market during the week [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains balanced, but overnight repurchase rates have risen by over 5 basis points to around 1.37% as the tax period approaches [3] - The central bank's continuous net injections have effectively stabilized market sentiment, indicating a maintained liquidity stance [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is at 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds showed mixed movements, with specific rates for government bonds and policy bank bonds varying [9] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds rose by 0.03%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts remained unchanged [12] Group 5: Economic Indicators - China's industrial output grew by 4.9% year-on-year in October, down from 6.5% previously, while retail sales increased by 2.9% [13] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year in the first ten months, with private investment down by 4.5% [13] Group 6: Real Estate Market - In October, housing prices in major cities showed a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 0.3% drop in new home prices [14] Group 7: Corporate Actions - Country Garden announced plans for overseas debt restructuring, aiming to reduce over $11 billion in debt with sufficient creditor support [15] Group 8: Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China released new regulations for interbank market brokerage services, effective January 1, 2026, focusing on enhancing internal controls and service agreements [15]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China has issued a warning for tourists to avoid traveling to Japan, urging travelers to pay attention to local security conditions and enhance self-protection awareness [2] - The Central Bank of China conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a continuation of monetary support [3] - The insurance fund utilization balance reached 37.46 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, with a significant increase in stock investments, particularly in banking stocks [4] Group 2 - The number of newly established ETF funds in China has surpassed 300 this year, with a total issuance scale reaching 249.68 billion yuan, marking a record year for the ETF market [6] - The A-share market has seen a rebalancing of investment styles, with institutions focusing on resource price increases and new consumption sectors [5] - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow by 30% in 2026, potentially leading to price surges if demand exceeds forecasts [9] Group 3 - Huawei is set to release a breakthrough AI technology that could significantly improve the utilization efficiency of computing resources [11] - Apple plans to change its product release strategy, introducing iPhone models twice a year starting in 2026, marking a significant shift in its launch schedule [11] - The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust sold 17 million shares of Microsoft, marking one of the largest single-quarter reductions since its establishment [14]