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中泰资管天团 | 程冰:低波“固收+”回撤目标的设定依据与干预机制
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-15 08:32
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that "fixed income +" products do not necessarily have larger drawdowns compared to pure bond products, highlighting the importance of asset allocation and risk management in achieving long-term returns above average fixed income yields [2][3]. Group 1: Product Performance - The Zhongtai Shuangli Bond A share has achieved a net value growth rate of 9.97% since its establishment on September 27, 2022, outperforming the benchmark yield of 5.93% [3]. - The maximum drawdown for the A share of Zhongtai Shuangli Bond is 0.66%, which is significantly better than the maximum drawdowns of the mixed bond secondary index (4.25%), pure bond fund index (1.31%), and short-term bond fund index (0.89%) [3]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategy - The company employs a dynamic management approach for drawdown control, where the underlying fixed income provides a safety cushion, and risk exposure is adjusted based on risk budget assessments [5]. - The strategy includes preemptive interventions, allowing for some tolerance during initial drawdowns, but increasing the weight of risk evaluation once thresholds are triggered [5]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The investment strategy focuses on increasing positions only when market conditions are favorable and maintaining low positions when opportunities are unclear, often keeping high elastic positions at very low levels (0% or 1%) [5][6]. - The company prioritizes protecting clients' risk-return objectives, emphasizing a disciplined approach to investment that considers potential losses before gains [6]. Group 4: New Product Offering - The Zhongtai Shuangxin Six-Month Holding Bond is currently being issued, designed with a six-month holding period to reduce daily redemption impacts and stabilize fund size, allowing for a more focused execution of medium to long-term investment strategies [6].
基本功 | 债基也能买期货?
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-15 08:32
Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds, suggesting that solid basic skills are essential for successful investment in funds [2] Group 2 - Certain bond funds can invest in government bond futures, which are futures contracts based on government bonds, highlighting a diversification opportunity within bond investments [3]
李迅雷专栏 | 这轮中美关税战可能只是中美之争的起始点
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-14 11:23
但自特朗普1月20日再次当选总统后,他就迫不及待对中国加征关税,2月1日,特朗普宣布对华加征关 税,税率为10%。到了3月份,特朗普继续对中国商品征税,税率又追加了10%。到了4月2日,借全面对 等关税之名,又向中国加征34%的关税,即在上任不到三个月内,累计加征了54%关税。 与上一轮贸易纷争不同的是,这次美方完全是在没有与中方事先沟通的情况下连续对中国加征关税,其加 征关税的理由也显得荒唐可笑。在中国迅速反制之后,美国对中国加征的关税又一路飙升,从84%、 125%到145%。 2018年的中美关税之争,官方从未用"贸易战"这一词,而是 用贸易摩擦或贸易纷争 来描述。但在4月25日 的政治局会议上,首次把中美贸易冲突定性为 "国际经贸斗争" ,既然上升到斗争的高度,那就意味着已 经做好最坏打算了。四月末,我国商务部明确表示,若美方希望重新进行谈判,必须首先取消所有单边关 税。 不过,5月2日商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸对话磋商情况答记者问时回答说,"中方注意到美方高层多次 表态,表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时,美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息,希望 与中方谈起来。对此,中方正在进行评估。" ...
基本功 | 养老目标基金有什么不一样?
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-13 09:39
Group 1 - The core concept of the article emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing, particularly in mutual funds, to facilitate easier entry into investment activities [2] - The article introduces pension target funds, which are specifically designed for retirement financial planning and are characterized by the inclusion of "pension target" in their names [3] - Pension target funds operate in a fund-of-funds (FOF) format, with over 80% of their assets invested in other funds, catering to retirement needs [3]
读研报 | 银发经济的“含金量”
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-13 09:39
近期有几个与银发经济相关的数据,引起了小编的关注: 事实上,当我们以产业发展的角度来切入老龄化时代,不难发现相关产业内涵的不断延展和新空间。 国家统计局于2021年公布的《养老产业统计分类(2020)》将养老产业范围确定为:养老照护服务、老年 医疗卫生服务、老年健康促进与社会参与、老年社会保障、养老教育培训和人力资源服务、养老金融服 务、养老科技和智慧养老服务、养老公共管理、其他养老服务、老年用品及相关产品制造、老年用品及相 关产品销售和租赁、养老设施建设等12个大类,并进一步细分成51个中类和79个小类。 没错,讨论、关注以及掘金银发经济的人,越来越多了。 除了老龄人口基数变大这一点,这一年龄段人口的财富积累也是其备受关注的重要原因。中国人民银行发 布的《2019年中国城镇居民家庭资产负债情况调查》显示,如果按户主年龄分类,2019年我国56-64岁和 65岁以上群体家庭总资产分别达到约355.4万元和288.0万元,相较于青年群体拥有更多的财富积累,也为 市场进一步发掘其消费潜力奠定了基石。 一是去哪儿发布的《史上最火五一出游报告》显示,"五一"期间,55岁至60岁用户的酒店预订增幅同比达 到了43%,在 ...
股债双驱,中泰双鑫6个月持有债券如何“金”彩三连?
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-12 00:50
Core Viewpoint - The fund adopts a "fixed income +" strategy with an equity position of 0-20%, aiming for low volatility and long-term stable returns that exceed the benchmark [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Strategy and Structure - The fund focuses on high-quality bonds, primarily credit bonds and long-term government bonds, while also incorporating high-potential equity assets to enhance returns [2][10]. - A six-month holding period is established, allowing for trading on any business day, which balances the advantages of closed operations with liquidity needs [3][4]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The fund's A share net value growth rate is 9.97% since its inception on September 27, 2022, outperforming the benchmark return of 5.93% [5][20]. - The fund has achieved a maximum drawdown of only 0.66%, significantly better than the mixed bond index (4.25%) and pure bond index (1.31%) [5][6]. Group 3: Management Team - The fund employs a dual fund manager approach, emphasizing strict risk control to ensure stability and profitability for investors [10][14]. - The management team has extensive experience in large fund management and absolute return strategies [12][13]. Group 4: Company Background - Founded in 2014, the asset management company has gained recognition from over 10.12 million users by prioritizing the interests of its investors [15].
新基发行,中泰双鑫6个月持有债券基金十问十答
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-12 00:50
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the characteristics, risk-return profile, and management strategies of a mixed secondary bond fund, highlighting its potential as a stable investment option in a low-interest-rate environment [2][3][7]. Group 1: Fund Types and Characteristics - The fund is categorized as a mixed secondary bond fund, investing at least 80% of its assets in bonds and up to 20% in equity and convertible bonds, often referred to as "fixed income plus" products [2]. - The fund's expected return and risk level are lower than equity funds but higher than pure bond and money market funds, aiming to align with the medium to long-term bond index [3]. Group 2: Historical Performance - Over the past 20 years, the secondary bond fund index has increased by 372.10%, significantly outperforming the China Bond Index, which rose by 146.90% during the same period [3]. - In the last ten years, the secondary bond fund index had positive returns in seven years, with two years benefiting from the A-share market, achieving annual gains exceeding 10% [5]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions - With the recent decline in bank deposit rates and a drop in the 10-year government bond yield to around 1.7%, traditional cash management products and pure bond funds are increasingly unable to meet investors' demand for stable returns [7]. - The fund's "fixed income plus" strategy is positioned as a solution for conservative investors seeking to enhance yield [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The fund employs a "fixed income plus" strategy, using bonds as a stable base and equities for potential higher returns, while also utilizing hedging tools to reduce portfolio volatility [8]. - The investment approach focuses on selecting high-quality bonds with a minimum credit rating of AA+ and emphasizes value investing in equities, targeting industry leaders and mature companies [8]. Group 5: Risk Management - The fund aims for low volatility and low drawdown by determining the stock-bond ratio through macro analysis and selecting foundational bonds and equity assets [9]. - Strict stop-loss operations and a focus on hedging are employed to control risks effectively [9]. Group 6: Fund Management Team - The fund will be managed by two experienced fund managers, Cheng Bing and Shang Yuanbo, who have extensive backgrounds in securities investment and management [10][11]. - The fund managers have previously managed similar products, achieving notable performance metrics, including a net value growth rate of 9.97% since inception [11]. Group 7: Market Opportunities - The fund managers recognize the current high volatility in the bond market due to external uncertainties but see potential opportunities in the equity market supported by favorable policies and low-interest rates [12][13]. - They plan to adjust leverage, portfolio duration, and asset distribution in response to market conditions, focusing on undervalued large-cap stocks [13]. Group 8: Fund Fees and Structure - The fund has a minimum holding period of six months, after which investors can redeem without incurring redemption fees, with various fee structures based on investment amounts [14][15]. Group 9: Management Company Overview - Zhongtai Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. was established in 2014 and has grown to manage assets totaling 105.12 billion yuan as of December 31, 2024 [16]. - The company ranks highly among peers in both active stock and bond investment management over the past five years [16].
关于印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》的通知
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-09 07:07
证监发〔2025〕21号 中国证监会各派出机构,各交易所,各下属单位,各协会,会内各司局: 现将《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》印发给你们,请认真贯彻落实。 中国证监会 2025年5月7日 推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案 近年来,我国公募基金行业在服务实体经济与国家战略、促进资本市场改革发展稳定、满足居民财富管理 需求等方面发挥了积极作用,但也暴露出经营理念有偏差、功能发挥不充分、发展结构不均衡、投资者获 得感不强等问题。为推动行业加快实现高质量发展,制定本方案。 一、总体要求 以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,深入贯彻落实党的二十届三中全会、中央经济工作会议、 中央金融工作会议、2024年9月26日中央政治局会议以及新"国九条"关于"稳步推进公募基金改革、推动证 券基金机构高质量发展、支持中长期资金入市"的决策部署,主要体现以下基本原则:坚持党对金融工作 的全面领导,坚定不移走好中国特色金融发展之路,建设符合中国式现代化本质要求的公募基金行业;坚 持以强监管、防风险、促高质量发展为主线,校正行业发展定位,实现功能性和盈利性的有机统一;坚持 问题导向、目标导向,切实回应市场关切,推出一系列投资者可感 ...
好朋友书单上新,6本硬核好书等你选
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-09 07:07
Core Viewpoint - The article presents a book list for 2025, emphasizing the importance of reading classic works across various fields such as investment, history, and medicine, which can enhance cognitive understanding and provide insights during market noise [2]. Book Recommendations - **"Kangxi's Red Ticket"**: This book explores the interactions between Emperor Kangxi and Western missionaries, highlighting the complex relationships between the Qing Dynasty and the West in areas like science and diplomacy [2]. - **"Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!"**: A non-typical autobiography of Richard Feynman, showcasing his curiosity and problem-solving approach through various anecdotes without complex formulas [6][8]. - **"The Little Book of Common Sense Investing"**: This classic guide by Professor Siegel analyzes over 200 years of stock trading in the U.S., comparing various investment products and offering strategic advice [8][10]. - **"Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett"**: This book systematically discusses the theory and practice of value investing, from Graham's foundational theories to Buffett's innovations, helping readers understand value principles and portfolio management [12][14]. - **"The Discovery of Thinking"**: This book delves into human decision-making processes, exploring biases and irrational behaviors that challenge traditional economic assumptions [15][17]. - **"Sorry, I Moved Your Brain"**: A collection of true stories from a neurosurgeon's perspective, discussing medical technology, ethics, and the emotional journey of doctors [19][21].
中泰资管天团 | 王桃:当前时点,回到DDM模型看红利投资
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-08 09:42
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of dividend stocks versus technology stocks in the context of the current investment environment, emphasizing the importance of understanding the long-term investment returns and the factors influencing them [2]. Group 1: Dividend Stocks vs. Technology Stocks - The investment in technology stocks is often seen as seeking high returns, while dividend stocks are viewed as a means of preserving capital. However, the actual investment return is a function of both the win rate and the payout ratio [2]. - Long-term investment in technology stocks may not necessarily yield better returns than accumulating dividends in traditional industries, as the latter can provide more stable income over time [2]. Group 2: Key Variables Influencing Investment Returns - The critical variables affecting investment returns include the longevity of the company, long-term Return on Equity (ROE), long-term dividend levels, and the valuation at the time of purchase [2][4]. - Companies that have reached a stable growth phase and increase their dividend rates can help maintain a reasonable ROE [2]. Group 3: Longevity of Companies - The probability of a company maintaining excellence over the long term is low, and traditional industry leaders have a higher likelihood of long-term survival compared to emerging industries, which are often characterized by rapid changes and intense competition [4]. Group 4: Long-term ROE Expectations - Investors often have conservative expectations regarding long-term ROE and growth rates. Many high-quality companies that are temporarily undervalued can still meet internal return requirements with modest ROE and growth [5]. Group 5: Valuation Considerations - While high ROE and rapid growth are desirable, the valuation must also be reasonable. Emerging industries often receive inflated valuations, which can lead to investment pitfalls [6]. - Low valuation does not guarantee sufficient margin of safety, as it may result from unexpected declines in fundamentals. Investors should consider multiple scenarios when assessing future profitability [7]. Group 6: Investment Strategy in Adverse Conditions - In challenging market conditions for dividend investments, the focus should be on optimizing the portfolio, increasing the margin of safety, and enhancing internal return rates, rather than being overly concerned with stock prices [9]. - Value investing is presented as a principle rather than a strategy, with the emphasis on improving the probability of success under low prior probabilities [9].