Core Viewpoint - The bond market remains strong, but the low interest rate environment poses challenges for achieving expected returns, making investment increasingly difficult [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The bond market has not yet reached a turning point for long-term low interest rates, with no significant breakthroughs in rates observed as of June 2025 [2]. - The market consensus indicates limited further downward movement in interest rates in the short term, despite fluctuations [2]. - The investment strategies for 2023 focus on credit bonds and city investment bonds, while 2024 will see a shift towards long-duration government bonds [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The primary strategy for the second half of the year is to seek stability in a high-probability, low-odds environment, with limited room for further rate declines [5]. - Risk management is crucial, and strategies such as yield curve compression and bond switching can provide stable returns [5]. - Expanding into "fixed income plus" products, including convertible bonds, is recommended for achieving excess returns [5][6]. Group 3: Asset Performance - The convertible bond market has seen a decrease in total issuance, reflecting both improved credit risk and challenges in attracting new capital [6]. - Other fixed income-like assets, such as REITs and high-dividend stocks, have performed well, with the CSI REITs total return index rising by 14.51% and the CITIC Bank index increasing by 15.03% as of June 2025 [6][7]. - Incorporating quantitative strategies and diversifying income sources can enhance returns in the current low-interest environment [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The evolving landscape of the low-interest rate environment requires fixed income managers to adapt and expand their investment strategies to provide stable returns [7]. - The mission for fixed income managers is to continuously broaden their capabilities to meet investor needs in this new era [7].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds, suggesting that solid fundamentals are essential for successful investment in funds [2] - The article introduces bond ETFs, which are funds that track bond indices and can be traded on the market, highlighting that they possess the fundamental characteristics of ETFs [3] Group 2 - The article promotes a special offer for new holders of Zhongtai Asset Management products, encouraging them to participate in a certification process to receive a reward [6]

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is a long-term task that has not kept pace with China's growing economic stature globally. The article explores the potential acceleration of RMB internationalization and analyzes the associated benefits and drawbacks, particularly from the perspective of "liquidity premium" [2][3]. Group 1: Current State of RMB Internationalization - The current level of RMB internationalization does not match China's economic scale, with RMB's share in foreign exchange trading, international payments, trade financing, and reserve currency significantly lower than its economic weight [6][8]. - RMB payment share globally may be underestimated, with actual RMB payment settlement estimated at around 8%, despite SWIFT reporting a lower figure [10][17]. - Historical evidence suggests that accelerating RMB internationalization does not necessarily lead to depreciation; for instance, after the 2005 exchange rate reform, the RMB appreciated against the USD for nine consecutive years [9][27]. Group 2: RMB Valuation and Liquidity - The market exchange rate of the RMB is undervalued compared to its purchasing power parity (PPP) rate, primarily due to insufficient global liquidity, resulting in a high liquidity premium [4][29]. - The high M2 money supply does not equate to significant depreciation pressure, as a large portion of M2 consists of foreign exchange reserves due to trade surpluses [4][34]. - The current excessive liquidity of the USD, which dominates global payments and reserves, contributes to its overvaluation, while the RMB's liquidity needs to be improved to enhance its valuation [4][50]. Group 3: Opportunities for RMB Internationalization - The current environment is favorable for accelerating RMB internationalization, with a declining USD index and increasing demand for RMB in cross-border transactions due to Chinese enterprises expanding overseas [40][50]. - The use of RMB in cross-border payments has significantly increased, with 2023 figures showing RMB cross-border payment amounts for goods and services at 24.8% and 31.9%, respectively [52]. - The low financing costs of RMB, driven by the divergence in interest rates between China and the US, enhance its attractiveness as a financing currency [53]. Group 4: Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - Suggestions include further opening the capital account and providing exchange facilitation for enterprises and residents to enhance RMB's global circulation [56][60]. - The establishment of a legal framework for RMB stablecoins is recommended to improve the currency's liquidity and international standing [63][64]. - The central bank should consider reducing its holdings of USD assets while increasing gold reserves to strengthen RMB's credibility [64][68]. Group 5: Economic Implications of RMB Internationalization - RMB internationalization is expected to support high-quality economic growth, allowing for a potential adjustment of GDP growth targets [71]. - The internationalization of RMB can help Chinese enterprises optimize asset allocation globally, enhancing their competitiveness and market valuation [75][76]. - While RMB appreciation may negatively impact exports, the overall benefits of internationalization are expected to outweigh the drawbacks, particularly as trade quality improves [80].

Core Viewpoint - The recent discussions on "anti-involution" are driven by policy guidance and market expectations, with a focus on promoting product quality and orderly competition while addressing low-price chaos in various industries [2] Group 1: Impacted Industries - The industries most affected by the current "anti-involution" include upstream raw materials related to real estate and infrastructure (such as coal, steel, and cement), equipment manufacturing overlapping with new productive forces (including automotive, electrical machinery, and electronic device manufacturing), and certain downstream consumer goods sectors (such as pharmaceuticals and food manufacturing) [3] - Emerging industries may experience a greater impact from "anti-involution," as recent government reports emphasize the need to cultivate new and future industries while addressing homogeneous competition in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [4] Group 2: Policy Implementation and Observations - The consensus is that the approach to "anti-involution" will be moderate, considering the significant presence of private enterprises in affected industries, with many sectors having a high proportion of private companies [6] - Employment concerns are also crucial, as the new industries most affected by "involution" employ a substantial number of workers, making abrupt capacity reductions potentially harmful to job stability [6] - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding the form and intensity of "anti-involution" policies, with future market movements dependent on clearer policy signals [7] Group 3: Need for Comprehensive Policy Support - High-intensity capacity reduction may require comprehensive policy support, balancing social stability and the specifics of capacity overhang, including timelines for exit and risk mitigation strategies [8] - Observations should not only focus on supply-side changes but also on demand-side updates, as changes in supply structure are necessary but not sufficient for industry recovery [8]

基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 一干题基金 为啥业绩差别有时很大? 同主题不代表投资同质化,掘 金方式不同业绩自然有差异。 首先， 主题定义标准不一,看似同类实则细分行业 差异巨大。同样是医药主题,细分赛道中药、医疗 器械、创新药等今年以来涨幅差异大,细分行业 景气度不同,自然会带来基金业绩差异。 持有人首次认证有礼啦！只要在6月27日前持有中泰资管产品并持有至今且的新朋友，长按识别下方 二维码前往认证，即可获得 影音会员月卡 一份。 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 扫码进入基本功专栏 ...

于是，我认真研读那位朋友的转发链接，并大致厘清了他所谓的"提示黄金风险"。 原来，近期高盛在一份报告提到，鸽派预期与风险缓和（地缘政治风险降温、贸易谈判取得进展）等因 素，将共同创造一个 "金发姑娘"（Goldilocks）式的宏观背景 。而所谓"金发姑娘"式的宏观背景，指的是 经济适度增长（不过热），通胀温和（不过高），足以让央行保持宽松的环境。 这一轮黄金的强势走势，让小编身边多出了好多个黄金资产的真爱粉。然而就在上周，其中的一位突然发 消息给我——"国际投行都在提示黄金风险了，金价是不是要跌了？"。 我还没来得及回复，他又火急火燎地把一则题为 " 高盛、花旗集体押注 ' 金发姑娘 ' ！黄金真正的风险出现 了 " 的报道发给了我。 说实话，我的第一反应是困惑，因为不久前我才读过关于"高盛维持黄金价格预测目标"的报道。 无独有偶，花旗也在近期发布的研报中写道，当前市场行情正呈现典型的"金发姑娘"特征。"金发姑娘"通 胀受抑制的环境意味着黄金失去避险吸引力并表现不佳。同时经济增长环境可能推高实际收益率和期限溢 价，抬升增加黄金的持有成本。此外，数据显示在历史"金发姑娘"时期，黄金的风险回报比（夏普比率） 显 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in bank stock prices are influenced by various factors, including seasonal portfolio adjustments by large funds, rather than fundamental changes in the banking sector [4][6][40]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Several banks have recently reached historical highs in stock prices, attracting significant market attention due to their "high dividend" and "low valuation" characteristics [2]. - The fluctuations in bank stock prices during the quarter-end are often temporary and related to fund reallocation rather than long-term trends [4][6]. Group 2: Bank Valuation Metrics - Banks exhibit high Return on Equity (ROE) but low Price-to-Book (PB) ratios due to their high leverage and concerns about asset quality [6][9]. - The long-term PB of a bank is influenced by its stable ROE and risk-return profile, with market perceptions often affecting valuation [6][9]. Group 3: Key Performance Indicators - The primary indicators for assessing a bank's value include its ability to generate future cash flows, stable ROE, and willingness to return value to shareholders [7][8]. - The stability of ROE can be evaluated through asset quality and the bank's risk management capabilities [10][11]. Group 4: Risk Management and Profitability - High interest margins can be achieved through effective risk management and maintaining a low cost of liabilities [12][28]. - The ability to manage customer relationships and maintain a stable deposit base is crucial for banks to sustain profitability [18][20]. Group 5: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The banking sector is currently experiencing pressure due to declining net interest margins and rising non-performing loans, which may impact future profitability [32][34][40]. - Regulatory measures are being implemented to alleviate pressure on banks, ensuring they maintain their credit creation capabilities [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a macroeconomic perspective in investment strategies, highlighting the need to adapt to changing economic conditions and the role of monetary and credit dynamics in asset allocation [3][6][14]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment approach combines strategic and tactical elements, where strategy is determined by long-term factors and tactics by short-term market conditions [10][15]. - The focus on "currency-credit" dynamics helps in understanding the underlying economic trends and informs asset allocation decisions [7][14]. - The manager has been proactive in asset allocation, notably increasing exposure to gold and convertible bonds ahead of market trends [3][14]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The current market environment is characterized by a lack of inflationary pressure and expectations of further monetary easing, which supports a positive outlook for various asset classes [14][15]. - The analysis indicates that the U.S. government's fiscal policies significantly impact economic conditions, necessitating close monitoring of credit expansion and fiscal deficits [7][14]. - The article discusses the potential for investment opportunities in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by favorable economic conditions and government support for technology and dividend-paying stocks [15][16]. Group 3: Tactical Opportunities - Tactical opportunities arise from market sentiment, where a shift in investor emotions can create favorable conditions for investment [10][11]. - The manager emphasizes the importance of monitoring market indicators, such as financing balances, to gauge retail investor sentiment and adjust strategies accordingly [11][15]. - The integration of various asset classes in a portfolio is guided by risk parity models, ensuring balanced risk contributions from different assets [11][15].

基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 怎么看固收+产品的 "含权量"? "含权量"即产品中权益 类资产的占比,代表权益 的风险暴露程度。 一般从以下几处大致推断"含权量"。一是在 基金合同 中 "投资范围"或"投资比例"中查到 权益仓位的上下限, 锁定范围。二是从过往基金季报、年报等定期报告中, 大手 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 扫码进入基本功专栏 持有人首次认证有礼啦！只要在6月27日前持有中泰资管产品并持有至今且的新朋友，长按识别下方 二维码前往认证，即可获得 影音会员月卡 一份。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of population changes on the economy, emphasizing the relationship between labor force demographics and economic growth, particularly in China [3][4]. Population Dependency Ratio and Economic Growth - China's population dependency ratio decreased from 7 dependents per 10 working-age individuals to 3.4 from 1980 to 2010, coinciding with an average GDP growth rate of around 10% during that period [3]. - Post-2010, the dependency ratio began to rise, with the GDP growth rate declining to 5%, indicating increased financial pressure on families and the state due to a higher number of dependents [4]. Future Population Projections - It is projected that by 2027, China's total population will fall below 1.4 billion, and by 2039, it will drop below 1.3 billion [10]. - Newborn population is expected to decline to below 9 million by 2025 and potentially drop below 7 million by 2035, indicating a significant demographic shift [11]. Birth Rate Trends and Influencing Factors - The article highlights a rapid decline in birth rates, particularly among younger age groups, and compares China's birth rates with those of Japan and several European countries [14]. - Factors contributing to the decline in marriage and birth rates include gender imbalance, educational disparities, and economic pressures faced by young people [17]. Urbanization and Population Movement - Urbanization rates in China are slowing, with a notable decrease in the influx of migrant workers and a trend of population return to central and western provinces [20]. - Major urban centers continue to attract population growth, with cities like Zhejiang and Shanghai experiencing significant net inflows despite overall population declines in many provinces [21]. Employment Trends in Different Sectors - The manufacturing sector's employment is decreasing, while the service sector is expanding, indicating a shift in economic structure [25]. - High-tech manufacturing and service industry growth are key factors attracting population inflows, with cities like Chengdu and Hefei leading in these developments [25].