Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that excessive government spending and aggressive quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve have set the stage for a potential collapse of the bond market, indicating that the timing of this crisis is uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Concerns - Dimon believes that the U.S. government's previous large-scale spending and the Federal Reserve's extensive QE policies have created a "ticking time bomb" for the bond market, leading to an inevitable collapse [2]. - He expresses uncertainty about when this crisis will occur, suggesting it could be in six months or six years, and emphasizes the need for a change in the debt trajectory and market-making capabilities [2]. - Dimon acknowledges the return of "bond vigilantes," indicating a growing concern among investors regarding government debt levels [2]. Group 2: Internal Threats to the U.S. - Dimon identifies "internal enemies" as the greatest threat to the U.S., rather than foreign adversaries, highlighting issues such as mismanagement and the need for reform in various sectors including government regulation, immigration, and healthcare [3]. - He calls for improvements in governance and management to enhance the U.S. economy's growth potential, suggesting that addressing these issues could lead to an annual growth rate of 3% [3][4]. Group 3: Tax Policy Recommendations - Dimon supports taxing profits from arbitrage trading, aligning with recent efforts by the Trump administration to close tax loopholes in this area [6][7]. - He proposes using the revenue from this tax to increase income tax credits, potentially benefiting individuals without children, estimating an additional cost of $60 billion for this initiative [7]. - Dimon argues against allowing significant state and local tax (SALT) deductions and urges Congress to pass tax legislation before focusing on other growth issues [8].

美国总统特朗普在匹兹堡兜售25%的钢铁关税，宣称将把进口税提高至50%。 据央视报道，当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普表示， 将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。 美国白宫当天在社交媒体上发布公告称，"为进一步保护美国钢铁行业免受外国和不公平竞争的影响， 从下周起，美国进口钢铁关税将从25%提高至50%。 " 特朗普2月10日签署行政命令，宣布对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%的关税。当地时间3月12 日，特朗普对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税的举措正式生效。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 美国俄亥俄州钢铁公司Cleveland-Cliffs美股盘后大涨26%，纽柯钢铁涨4.24%，Steel Dynamics涨 1.57%。 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing increasing competition in the market, with a need to boost sales after a slow first half of the year, while also aiming for significant revenue growth in the future [1][2][8]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1, the company delivered 92,900 vehicles, with total revenue slightly increasing by 1.1% year-on-year to 25.9 billion [1]. - The net profit for the quarter was 647 million, marking a 9.4% year-on-year growth, making it the only new force car manufacturer to achieve ten consecutive quarters of profitability [1]. - Vehicle revenue reached 24.7 billion, exceeding market expectations of 24.1 billion, attributed to an improved vehicle model mix [1]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The market for range-extended vehicles is becoming increasingly competitive, with the company experiencing only a 3.5% growth in sales compared to the overall market growth of 45% for pure electric and 63% for plug-in hybrid vehicles [3][4]. - The company’s sales guidance for Q2 indicates a decline in average selling price by 13,000, with expected sales of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles, suggesting a weak performance in May and June [2]. Group 3: Product Strategy - The company is focusing on its second growth curve with the pure electric series, showing a significant increase in MEGA orders by over 150%, surpassing internal expectations [5]. - Upcoming releases of the i8 and i6 models are planned for July and September, respectively, with enhancements in range, driving assistance, and smart space capabilities [6]. Group 4: Marketing and Expansion Plans - The company is implementing a "Starry Sky" plan to penetrate lower-tier cities, aiming for over 100,000 total sales from these markets by 2026 [7]. - The company is also targeting international markets, with a goal for overseas sales to account for 30% of total sales in the future [7]. Group 5: Future Revenue Goals - The company aims to achieve an annual revenue of 300 billion, supported by the delivery of range-extended SUVs, pure electric SUVs, and the MEGA model [8]. - To reach this revenue target, the company estimates a need to sell 1.1 million vehicles annually, highlighting the challenges posed by the competitive environment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the weakening of the US dollar, attributed to the erratic trade policies of the Trump administration and growing concerns over the US fiscal situation, leading to a crisis of market confidence [1][5]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index is expected to decline by 0.4% in May, marking the fifth consecutive month of losses [1][10]. - The volatility of the dollar is linked to the inconsistent trade policies, which have caused investors to seek alternatives to US assets [2][5]. Group 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Recent court rulings have created a confusing environment for investors, with a trade court blocking tariffs just as an appeals court reinstated them, indicating ongoing uncertainty [3][4][6]. - The unpredictable nature of these policies is likened to a "ticking time bomb," fostering a cautious market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Recession Concerns - Recent economic data, including a rise in initial jobless claims to 240,000, has heightened fears of a recession, as the first quarter GDP contracted by 0.2% [7]. - The weak demand for long-term bonds from developed economies like the US and Japan reflects broader concerns about fiscal debt levels [8]. Group 4: Emerging Markets - In contrast to the weakening dollar, emerging market currencies have shown strength, with an index tracking these currencies rising by 2.2%, the largest monthly gain since November 2023 [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - Huawei has achieved significant advancements in training large models through its "Ascend + Pangu Ultra MoE" system, demonstrating a fully domestic and GPU-free training process that enhances computational efficiency and model performance [3][4][38]. Group 1: Technical Innovations - Huawei's training system has achieved a model training efficiency with a utilization rate (MFU) of 41% during the pre-training phase using the Ascend Atlas 800T A2 cluster [4][38]. - The Pangu Ultra MoE model consists of 718 billion parameters, featuring a unique architecture with 61 layers, including 58 MoE layers, and is designed for high performance and scalability [38][39]. - The system supports a high throughput of 35K Tokens/s during the reinforcement learning (RL) post-training phase, showcasing its capability to process complex tasks rapidly [39]. Group 2: Challenges Addressed - The report identifies six key challenges in the current MoE pre-training and RL post-training processes, including difficulties in parallel strategy configuration, communication bottlenecks, and uneven system load distribution [7][10][12][13]. - Huawei has developed a comprehensive end-to-end solution to address these challenges, focusing on optimizing training cluster utilization and enhancing communication efficiency [14][16][25]. Group 3: Specific Solutions - The first strategy involves improving training cluster utilization through intelligent parallel strategy selection and global dynamic load balancing, significantly enhancing overall training efficiency [16][23]. - The second strategy focuses on releasing computational power at the single-node level by optimizing training operators and enhancing memory management, achieving a twofold increase in micro-batch size [26][30]. - The third strategy introduces high-performance scalable RL post-training technologies, allowing for flexible deployment modes and doubling the utilization rate of RL post-training clusters [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The global zero-carbon transportation market is experiencing explosive growth, with battery swapping emerging as a strategic entry point for transforming the entire energy ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global energy and transportation landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with heavy-duty trucks being a focal point due to their high energy consumption and emissions [2]. - In 2022, China's new energy heavy truck sales reached approximately 82,000 units, with a market penetration rate surpassing 10% [2]. - In Q1 2023, new energy heavy truck sales surged to 30,000 units, marking a 200% year-on-year increase, indicating a potential penetration rate exceeding 20% for the year [2]. Group 2: Economic and Environmental Drivers - The high fuel costs and urgent decarbonization pressures necessitate the electrification of heavy-duty trucks, which account for about 35% of logistics costs, with fuel costs exceeding 30% of that [3][4]. - Heavy-duty trucks contribute to 47% of road transport CO2 emissions and about 8.1% of total national carbon emissions, making their electrification critical for meeting national carbon reduction targets [4]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The bottom battery swapping technology is emerging as a key solution for the electrification of heavy-duty trucks, enhancing safety, efficiency, and economic viability [12][13]. - The integration of battery packs into the vehicle's chassis maximizes space utilization and lowers the center of gravity, improving stability and safety during operation [13]. Group 4: Industry Initiatives - Companies like CATL are actively promoting battery swapping solutions, with plans to establish a nationwide battery swapping network covering 80% of heavy-duty truck transport capacity by 2030 [15][16]. - The introduction of standardized batteries and swapping stations aims to reduce costs and enhance the operational efficiency of electric heavy-duty trucks [15][16]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The shift towards battery swapping not only addresses the challenges of charging efficiency but also aligns with national energy security goals by reducing reliance on imported oil [7][10]. - The comprehensive approach of integrating transportation and energy sectors through battery swapping solutions positions companies like CATL as pivotal players in the transition to a low-carbon economy [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Trump administration regarding its tariff strategy and the potential implementation of a two-step "Plan B" to navigate legal obstacles and maintain its trade policies [1][2]. Group 1: Plan B Strategy - The Trump administration is considering a two-step "Plan B" involving the use of the 1974 Trade Act's Section 122, which allows for a temporary imposition of tariffs up to 15% for 150 days to address trade imbalances [3]. - During the 150-day period, the administration may tailor individual tariffs for major trading partners using Section 301 of the same law, aimed at countering perceived unfair trade practices [3]. - Senior trade advisor Navarro hinted at the dual-track approach, suggesting the potential use of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act to impose tariffs on countries deemed discriminatory against the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Legal Risks and Challenges - Despite the new strategy appearing well-prepared, legal challenges remain a significant concern, as highlighted by former officials who note that the new plan must provide strong evidence of unfair trade practices to avoid litigation [5][6]. - Legal experts warn that shifting to different legal grounds during ongoing appeals could be interpreted as an acknowledgment of defeat in current cases [6]. Group 3: Impact on Global Trade Relations - The court's ruling against Trump's tariff authority has broader implications, limiting the president's negotiating leverage and complicating ongoing trade discussions with multiple countries [8]. - Contrasting views emerge within the administration, with some officials expressing optimism about trade negotiations, while others acknowledge the uncertainty introduced by the court's decision [9]. - Analysts suggest that if the ruling remains effective post-appeal, it could facilitate a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU by removing a key obstacle in negotiations [11].

一项埋藏在千页预算法案深处的"隐秘条款"，正悄然引发华尔街恐慌—— 这个被称为第899条的模糊税收条款，可能将贸易战升级为资本战，直接威胁外国投 资者持有的数万亿美元美国资产。 这项条款出现在上周美国众议院通过的《大漂亮法案》税收与支出议案中，其标题为"针对不公平外国税收的执法补救措施"。条款提出：对于被美国认定存 在"歧视性"税收政策的国家，将大幅提高该国企业和个人在美投资的税率。 具体而言，这项措施将对目标国家投资者在美国的被动收入（如利息和股息）征收递增式惩罚税， 首先提高5个百分点，然后每年再增加5个百分点，最高可达 法定税率基础上的20个百分点。 第899条款的风险在周三美国法院阻止特朗普对等关税后变得更加紧迫。 关税一直被视为资助特朗普减税计划的重要来源——而减税正是其《大漂亮法案》的 标志性内容。关税收入的不确定性，让政府更迫切地寻找替代资金来源。 这一策略与白宫经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran去年11月提出所谓海湖庄园协议高度吻合。 Miran当时呼吁对美国国债的外国投资者征收"使用费"，以削 弱美元并提高美国制造商竞争力。 如果该立法获得通过，它将有效引入自1984年《赤字削减法 ...

当地时间周四，美联储在一份声明中表示， 美联储主席鲍威尔5月29日周四应美国总统特朗普的邀请， 在白宫与其会面 。双方讨论了美国经济发展情况，包括经济增长、就业和通胀等议题。 这是特朗普开启他的美国总统的第二个任期以来两人首次会晤。 这也是他们自2019年11月以来的首次 会晤。 本月早些时候，鲍威尔表示，除非总统主动要求，否则他不会寻求与特朗普会面。"我从未要求与任何 一位总统会面，也永远不会。我不会这么做。我从来没有理由要求会面。这种情况总是由对方提出 的。" 美联储表示，鲍威尔在会面中没有讨论对货币政策的预期，只是强调政策路径将完全取决于未来的经济 数据以及这些数据对经济前景的影响。 鲍威尔强调，他本人及联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的同事将根据法律规定，制定旨在支持最大就业 和物价稳定的货币政策，并且所有决策都将基于仔细、客观、非政治化的分析。 特朗普和鲍威尔的这次会面正值特朗普宣布的一系列对美国贸易伙伴的关税大多被法院裁定无效后不 久。 鲍威尔则一再强调，美联储官员们在制定政策时采取非政治化的立场，并根据他们对经济最佳利益的判 断做出决策。据美联储表示，鲍威尔在本次会面中再次向特朗普重申了这一立场。 ...

当 美国国际贸易 法院 一纸裁决叫停了"对等关税"，特朗普可能搬出"替代法案 "来继续加征关税。 据央视新闻，当地时间5月28日， 美国国际贸易 法院阻止了美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普越权 ，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征 收全面关税。 据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新的报告中分析表示，美法院叫停只是"Nothingburger"（无关紧要的小事），预计特朗普政府可能动用122条款征税，为后续启 动一系列301条款调查争取时间，338条款以及232条款也在考虑范围内。 "绕开"裁决或赢得上诉可行性几何？ 美法院发布裁决后，白宫迅速强硬回应，称将动用"行政权力的每一杠杆"反击这一"未经选举的法官"的裁决。 "绕开"裁决或赢得上诉可行性几何？ 高盛表示，鉴于美法院要求在10天内停止征收关税，特朗普政府在这么短的期限内赢得上诉的可能性不大。 不过，中泰策略认为， 在美国司法权力受钳制的背景下，特朗普政府可以一定程度"绕开"裁决： 5月22日，特朗普政府推动了"大而美减税法案"，以215票对214票的微弱优势在美国众议院通过。这一法案推出的背后反映的是美国"三权分立"的 宪政体制的受到挑战。在该法 ...