华尔街巨头警告，美元指数未来一年将跌9%。 周一，美元对一篮子货币走低，美元指数下跌超0.7%，最低触及98.68，似乎也印证了市场对美元前景的谨慎态度。与此同时，欧元升至一个月高位，英镑来 到1.3550，美元/日元跌至142.80附近。 "央行降息+经济放缓"，美元将走软 根据大摩的预测，美联储将在未来实施175个基点的降息，这将对美元构成重大压力。 该行预计，10年期美债收益率将在今年年底达到4%，随后在明年美联储大幅降息的推动下出现更大幅度的下跌。 据报道，摩根士丹利策略师团队在最新报告中预测，美元将在明年年中跌至新冠疫情期间的低位水平。 该行预计，美元指数将在未来一年内下跌约9%，跌至91附近，主要驱动因素是美联储的降息周期和经济放缓。 以Matthew Hornbach为首的策略师团队在5月31日的研究报告中指出： "我们认为利率和货币市场已经开启了可持续的重大趋势——在经历了两年的宽幅区间震荡交易后，美元将大幅走低，收益率曲线将显著变陡。" 大摩还在报告中表示，欧元、日元、瑞郎将成为美元走软的最大受益者。 摩根士丹利策略师则认为，美元走弱的最大受益者将是欧元、日元和瑞士法郎，这些货币被广泛视为与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent court ruling against a network technology company for unfair competition highlights the ongoing rivalry between Baidu and ByteDance, particularly in the context of AI and content ecosystems [1][2][3]. Legal Dispute - The Beijing Haidian Court ruled that the network technology company, Interactive Encyclopedia, engaged in unfair competition by scraping over 600,000 entries from Baidu Encyclopedia without authorization, resulting in a compensation order of 5 million yuan for economic losses and 3 million yuan for reasonable expenses [1][4]. - This case marks the first instance of a legal dispute involving encyclopedia data competition in China, with the court emphasizing the need to protect the interests of platform operators in the competitive landscape [2][4]. Competitive Landscape - The competition between Baidu and ByteDance has been extensive, with at least 234 legal cases since 2016, primarily revolving around unfair competition and copyright disputes [4][5]. - Baidu's core business remains in search, while ByteDance has shifted its focus from search to content platforms, indicating a strategic pivot in their competitive approaches [6][8]. AI Development - Both companies are heavily investing in AI, with Baidu being an early mover in the field, launching its Wenxin model in 2019 and generating significant revenue from AI cloud services [10][11]. - ByteDance has been slower to respond but is now ramping up its AI initiatives, including the launch of its Doubao model family and a focus on AGI research [10][13]. Market Dynamics - The AI cloud computing market is highly competitive, with both companies vying for market share. Baidu's intelligent cloud revenue grew by 42% year-on-year, while ByteDance's Doubao model has seen a dramatic increase in usage [11][12]. - The ongoing price war in the AI model market has intensified competition, with ByteDance offering significantly lower prices for its models, prompting responses from other tech giants [11][12]. Future Outlook - The rivalry between Baidu and ByteDance is expected to continue evolving, particularly as both companies enhance their AI capabilities and seek to establish themselves as leaders in the AI landscape [10][13]. - The competition will not only test their strategic and technological capabilities but also their ability to innovate in a rapidly changing market [10][13].

以下文章来源于见闻历 ，作者李笑寅 见闻历 . 每天多看我一眼，投资赚的多一点。 | 时间 | 地区 | 内容 | 预期 | 同信 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6月2日 | 目一 | | | | | 事件 | 国内 | 中国内地金融市场因端午节假期休市 | | | | | | 港交所推出宁德时代每周期权合约 | | | | | 海外 | 8:00 美联储理事沃勒在2025年韩国央行国际会议上就经 | | | | | | 济前景发表讲话 | | | | 数据 | 泡シ | 22:00 美国5月ISM制造业指数 | 49.2 | 48.7 | | 6月3日 | 周二 | | | | | 数据 | 国内 | 9:45 中国5月财新制造业PMI | | 50.4 | | | 海外 | 22:00 美国4月JOLTS职位空缺(万人) | 710 | 719.2 | | | 国内 | 小米集团2025投资者日 00:45 2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比参 与一场问答活动 | | | | 事件 | | 1:00 美联储主席鲍威尔在一场活动上致开幕词 | | | | ...

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index is approaching the 6000-point mark while the 10-year Treasury yield remains high, prompting warnings from Bank of America’s Chief Investment Officer Michael Hartnett about potential market movements based on three key indicators: broker stocks, bank stocks, and Bitcoin [1][11] - A bearish signal will be indicated if these three assets form a double top pattern, while a clean upward breakout would suggest a bullish outlook [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent performance of the S&P 500 index in May saw a 6% increase, marking its best monthly performance since 1990 [1] - In contrast, the dollar is struggling to gain traction, leading to speculation about a potential bear market for the dollar [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - A weak dollar is seen as a tool to revitalize U.S. manufacturing, which currently accounts for only 8% of U.S. jobs, potentially leading to a bear market for the dollar and boosting gold, emerging markets, and international assets [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are positioning themselves for potential market shifts, with bearish investors favoring defensive sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities, which currently represent only 18% of the S&P 500, the lowest since 2000 [5] - Bullish investors are employing a barbell strategy by going long on the "Tech Seven" and value stocks in other regions to hedge against potential bubbles in the U.S. market and risks from excessive EU fiscal spending [7] Group 4: Fund Flows - Recent fund flow data indicates a divergence in market sentiment, with cryptocurrencies seeing an inflow of $2.6 billion, the largest weekly inflow since January [9] - Other notable fund flows include $1.8 billion into gold, with an annualized inflow reaching a record $75 billion, and $2.8 billion into emerging market bonds, marking the largest inflow since January 2023 [9] Group 5: Valuation Concerns - The Tech Seven stocks have seen a resurgence, with their price-to-earnings ratio returning to 42 times, suggesting a potential 30% upside based on historical bubble patterns [10] - Historically, 12 out of the last 14 asset bubbles were accompanied by rising bond yields, with the current 30-year real yield nearing 3%, the highest since November 2008, indicating the presence of a bubble [11]

在马斯克宣布离职，从白宫中匆忙抽身后，美国媒体迅速聚焦特朗普与马斯克，深挖猛料试图揭开两人短暂又复杂关系中不为人知的内幕。 据《华尔街日报》透露，特朗普曾满腹狐疑地质疑马斯克"削减1万亿美元政府开支"的豪言壮语： "这是不是胡说八道？" 导致承诺落空的因素包括法庭挑战和官僚阻碍，这些问题迅速消耗了特朗普及其幕僚的耐心，白宫内部对马斯克的不满逐渐增加。 在短短四个月的白宫任职期间，马斯克频繁制造冲突，令幕僚和内阁成员颇为困扰。一些白宫官员表示，马斯克多次在未充分沟通的情况下进行大规模裁员及 政策变动。 不过，特朗普并未彻底否定这位富豪，对此的评价也意味深长： "马斯克没有真正离开，他还会经常往返。" 金钱、承诺、"空头支票" 特朗普政府与马斯克的合作始于一个极具诱惑力的承诺： 马斯克声称可通过新设立的政府效率部（DOGE）削减高达1万亿美元的联邦预算。 然而，实际成果与承诺相距甚远。根据DOGE的内部估算，马斯克实际仅削减约1700亿美元，并且这一数字本身也存在争议。 特朗普因此向幕僚发出质疑： "这是不是胡说八道？（Was it all bullshit?）" 马斯克斥资近3亿美元助特朗普重返白宫，获得了空前 ...

全球贸易战硝烟再起之际，华尔街金融圈一个简单的四字缩写—"TACO"（Trump Always Chickens Out，意为"特朗普总是临阵退缩"）刺痛了美国总统的神 经，并可能引发更加剧烈且不可预测的市场波动。 5月以来，贸易政策的不确定性已从4月初的高点大幅下滑，但随着各种关税和限制政策重返头条，不确定性再度回升。 特朗普的贸易政策一直呈现出摇摆不定的特点。仅在过去一周，他就威胁对欧盟实施50%的关税，据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日，美国总统特朗普在社 交媒体上表示，建议自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。而随后又延长了实施期限。 "TACO"为何会点燃特朗普的怒火？不仅是语言，更是面子 "TACO"这个缩写最早由《金融时报》的Robert Armstrong于5月2日提出，用以概括特朗普在关税政策上反复无常的模式——先是抛出天价威胁，随后在市场 压力或谈判妥协下退让。 Armstrong指出，这种模式已成为市场规律：特朗普的关税威胁往往导致股价下挫，但当他政策转向时，市场又会迅速反弹。华尔街很快将其内化，交易员甚 至将"TACO"作为交易策略的一部分，押注总统的"临阵退缩"。 短短几周内，"TAC ...

领导"政府效率部"（DOGE）这个顾问委员会干了四个月，特斯拉CEO马斯克收获了从美国到全世界的 指责、非议、给旗下公司招来了暴力攻击，但至少现在表面看来，他和美国总统特朗普的亲密关系还能 没有太受影响。 特朗普特地为马斯克卸任DOGE开了个"欢送会"，还表示马斯克不会真的离开。马斯克说，他要继续做 政府的顾问，随时愿意效劳。 特朗普：推动DOEG减支永久化 马斯克会"常来常往" 美东时间5月30日周五，特朗普在白宫举行了一场发布会，庆祝马斯克卸下他在DOGE的工作、结束四 个月的"公务员"生涯。 据央视新闻，发布会上，特朗普感谢马斯克在担任"特殊政府雇员"期间的付出。他表示，政府将致力于 推动DOGE削减政府开支政策的永久化。 央视提到，特朗普对马斯克带领下DOGE所达成的成就表示称赞，称DOGE聘用了计算机领域的杰出人 才。他还说，许多DOGE员工将继续留任，马斯克的"几乎所有"员工都会留下。 特朗普现场赠送了马斯克一把金钥匙作为纪念，并表示： "埃隆（·马斯克）其实不会离开。他会常来常往。" 这番话和特朗普之前一条的表态一致。他本周四在社交媒体发帖称，30日周五是马斯克为DOGE工作的 最后一天，"但并 ...

下任美联储主席热门人选沃什发表犀利表态，美联储官员不应该是"被宠坏的王子"，央行本就是为政客 背锅而生，同时他还批评美联储万亿美元负债表助长政府"挥霍"。 周五，加州里根国家经济论坛上，前美联储理事沃什毫不客气地为特朗普批评美联储的论调辩护： 万亿美元负债助长政府"挥霍"，呼吁制定明确缩表计划 如果总统认为美联储表现糟糕，他就应该能够公开批评，央行官员不应成为"被宠坏的王子"。 我在报纸上看到这些政客对央行有多刻薄的报道时很无语，拜托，成熟点，坚强点， 央行的成立不就 是为了给政客找个"替罪羊"嘛！ 而就在周四，特朗普刚刚在白宫与鲍威尔举行了重新上任以来的首次面对面会谈，此前特朗普曾多次在 社交媒体和新闻发布会上抨击鲍威尔维持高利率的政策。考虑到鲍威尔任期将于2026年5月结束，且几 乎没有人预期特朗普会提名他连任，而沃什是下任美联储主席当下"热门人选"。 他还提到了美联储庞大的资产负债表，过去五年大规模财政支出激增的部分原因是央行在为其成本提供 补贴，而这番言论正值美债市场动荡之际。 政策难辞其咎。 值得注意的是，摩根大通董事长兼CEO Jamie Dimon也在同一论坛上发出了更为严厉的警告。他表 示，部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collapse of Builder.ai, once valued at $1.5 billion and backed by major investors like Microsoft and SoftBank, reveals a significant fraud involving the misrepresentation of AI capabilities and financial data, leading to investor losses and a warning for the AI market [2][28]. Group 1: Company Background - Builder.ai was founded in 2016 by Sachin Dev Duggal, who aimed to simplify app development using AI, promoting the idea that creating apps could be as easy as ordering pizza [3][6]. - The company quickly gained traction in the investment community, becoming a prominent player in the no-code and AI space, with a peak valuation of $1.3 to $1.5 billion [9]. Group 2: Misrepresentation of Technology - Despite its claims, Builder.ai's "AI" was largely a marketing facade, with most work performed manually by low-cost Indian engineers, contradicting the company's narrative of automation [11][17]. - The AI project manager, "Natasha," was revealed to be a simple front-end interface, with actual coding done by a team of engineers, undermining the company's technological claims [14][16]. Group 3: Financial Fraud - Builder.ai's financial practices came under scrutiny when it was found to have exaggerated its 2024 revenue projections to $220 million, while actual revenues were only $55 million, leading to investigations by U.S. prosecutors [19][21]. - The company engaged in practices such as inflating sales figures through fake invoices, which ultimately contributed to its financial downfall [20]. Group 4: Leadership and Bankruptcy - In early 2025, Sachin Dev Duggal stepped down as CEO, adopting the title "Chief Wizard," which was seen as an attempt to distance himself from the impending crisis [22]. - Following the discovery of significant financial issues, Builder.ai filed for bankruptcy in multiple countries, freezing global projects and leaving employees unpaid [25][27]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The collapse of Builder.ai highlights a larger trend of "AI washing," where companies falsely claim AI capabilities to attract investment, as seen in other cases like Nate and Joonko [29][30]. - The situation serves as a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the need for thorough due diligence in the rapidly evolving AI sector [34].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production for the third consecutive month, which may lead to further declines in oil prices, with hedge funds aggressively shorting oil ahead of the announcement [1][2]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for July, maintaining the same increase as the previous two months [1]. - Some member countries, including Russia, expressed reservations about the production increase during discussions [1]. - The previous increases in production have already pushed oil prices to four-year lows, with prices dropping below $60 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Hedge Fund Activities - Hedge funds have significantly increased their short positions on Brent crude oil, with net short positions rising by 16,922 contracts to 130,019 contracts, the highest level since October of the previous year [2]. - Data from the U.S. CFTC indicates that WTI crude oil's net short positions have also reached a three-week high [2]. Group 3: Strategic Intentions of OPEC+ - OPEC+ has shifted its strategy from protecting prices to actively lowering them, reflecting Saudi Arabia's dual intentions: punishing overproducing members like Kazakhstan and regaining market share from U.S. shale oil producers [3]. - Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its OPEC+ production targets, which has caused frustration among other member countries [3]. - To effectively impact U.S. shale producers, OPEC+ aims to push oil prices below $60 per barrel, which is just below the breakeven point for new drilling in the U.S. shale oil sector [4]. Group 4: Economic Implications for Saudi Arabia - The drop in oil prices has led to a significant decline in Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index, which has fallen by 6.4% since May, marking the longest four-month losing streak since 2014 [5]. - The budget deficit for Saudi Arabia has reached its highest level since the end of 2021 due to the impact of falling oil prices [5].