全球市场陷入"AI泡沫"争论之际，即便是最成功的英伟达，也正面临着前所未有的审视压力。作为AI基础设施的核心供应商，英伟达的一举一动都被视为整个 行业健康状况的晴雨表。 据Business Insider周五报道，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在周四的内部会议上坦言， 尽管公司交出了"令人难以置信的"成绩单，但"市场并不领情"。 这位芯片巨头掌门人罕见地承认，英伟达如今面临一个无解困境：业绩出色会被指控助推AI泡沫，业绩不佳则被视为泡沫破裂的证据。 黄仁勋在会上表示， 市场对英伟达的预期已经高到令公司陷入某种"无赢局面"。 他直言： "如果我们交出糟糕的季报，哪怕只是差一点点，看起来有一点点不 稳，整个世界就会崩溃。" 黄仁勋在会上开玩笑提到 公司市值曾达5万亿美元的"美好旧时光"。 "历史上没人在几周内损失5000亿美元，"他说，"你得值很多钱才能在几周内损失5000亿 美元。" 这一市值波动反映出投资者对AI投资热潮的信心正在动摇，即便面对强劲的业绩数据，市场仍对持续性存在疑虑。 金融圈"明星"日历，投资快人一步 陷入"无赢困境" 据Business Insider获得的会议录音，黄仁勋在周四的内部会议上详细阐述 ...

昨夜， 英伟达的超预期财报叠加"金发姑娘"式的非农数据（新增就业超预期但失业率上升），双重利好。 美股三大股指集体大幅高开，标普500指数一度超过1.4%，纳斯达克指数更是飙升2.18%。 但到尾盘时全线重挫，标普500指数收跌1.56%，纳斯达克指数更是暴跌2.16%。 这种情况此前只发生过两次：2020年4月7日（新冠疫情冲击后）和2025年4月8日（特朗普关税冲击后）。 英伟达业绩利好昙花一现，同样上演高开后大跳水：盘中涨超5%后，收跌3%。 费城半导体指数从早盘大涨转为收盘暴跌近4.8%。 分析认为当利好消息都无法推动市场上涨时，这本身就成为了一个强烈的看空信号，触发了美股大规模的获利了结和技术性抛售。 美股上演四月关税风暴来最大盘中逆转 乐观情绪风云突变，美股上演"高开低走"大逆转。美股三大股指悉数转跌，并持续扩大跌幅。 最终，标普500指数收跌103.40点，跌幅1.56%，报6538.76点。 道琼斯工业平均指数收跌386.51点，跌幅0.84%，报45752.26点。 纳指收跌486.181点，跌幅2.16%，报22078.048点。 市场质疑英伟达："卖铲人"不会说山里没金子 盘前， 9月非 ...

Core Insights - The Morgan Stanley Corporate Run in Shanghai has become an essential event for the business community, celebrating its 12th year with nearly 200 participating companies [2] - The event promotes a healthy lifestyle, teamwork, and collaboration, allowing participants to run, jog, or walk at their own pace [4] - The event has a charitable aspect, with donations made to the Youcheng Foundation, supporting training and development for over 10,000 rural youth and women [8] Participation and Growth - The event saw participation from various industries, with the top five companies being Eaton China (295 participants), Bosch Investment (150), Shanghai Disney Resort (147), Porsche (114), and Andprhan Human Resources (107) [7] - The total number of participants in the global series reached 234,098, marking a 3% increase from 226,695 in 2024 [11] Future Milestones - The Morgan Stanley Corporate Run will celebrate its 50th anniversary in 2026, originating from Central Park in New York in 1977 [9]

美国总统特朗普在公开场合升级了对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评，直言"我很想炒掉他"，并称其"极度无能"。 周三特朗普在美国华盛顿举行的美国-沙特投资论坛上，敦促美国财政部长贝森特加快寻找鲍威尔继任者的进程 。特朗普对坐在观众席的贝森特说： 你得努力点，贝森特。贝森特唯一搞砸的就是美联储这件事。 鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年5月到期，美联储理事任期则到2028年。特朗普还半开玩笑地对贝森特施压： 利率太高了，贝森特，如果你不快点搞定，我就要炒掉你。 正在牵头物色美联储新主席人选的贝森特近日称， 特朗普将在感恩节11月27日后与三位最终候选人会面，新的人选可能在12月25日圣诞节前宣布。 继任者搜寻进入冲刺阶段 周二据媒体报道，特朗普称美国政府对美联储最高职位已有一些"很好的人选"。 特朗普此前曾多次表示，贝森特将是他对美联储主席职位的首选，但贝森特告诉他更愿意留任美国财政部和国税局负责人。 目前贝森特已确定五位最终候选人名单： 美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特、前美联储理事沃什、现任美联储理事沃勒、负责监管的美联储副主席鲍曼，以及贝莱德高 管Rick Rieder。 特朗普周三的讲话首次暗示了白宫内部对鲍威尔去留问题的分歧。 ...

截至三季度末，H&H International Investment共持有11家公司股票，总市值约1044亿元人民币。苹果依然占据第一大重仓股地位，持仓市值88.69亿美元，占 比60.42%。伯克希尔·哈撒韦以26.1亿美元的持仓市值位列第二，占比17.78%。 | Stock | History | | Shares Held | Market Value | % of | Previous % of | Rank | Change in | 8 | 1/2 | Qtr 1st | Est. Avg | Qtr End | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Sector | or Principal | → | Portfolio | Portfolio | | Shares | Change | Ownership | Owned | Price | Price | Price 1D | | | | | Amt | | | | | | | ...

当地时间周三， 美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics，BLS）表示，将不会发布10月非农就 业报告，而是把相关的就业数据纳入11月报告。 11月非农就业报告将于12月16日发布，比原计划晚了一个多星期，并且是在美联储今年最后一次会议 之后公布。 9月非农就业报告将于本周四发布。 美国非农就业报告由两项调查组成，一项面向家庭，另一项面向企业机构，后者用来统计非农就业人 数。 由于美国创纪录的政府关门，BLS无法收集10月的住户调查数据——这些数据用于计算包括失业率在内 的关键指标 。BLS表示， 这些数据无法事后补采 。BLS还表示， 将延长11月家庭调查和机构调查的收 集周期。 经济学家此前就指出，由于数据收集方式极为依赖人工，家庭调查数据存在被跳过的风险，但他们仍预 期10月的非农就业数据会如期发布。白宫国家经济委员会主任哈赛特上周曾表示，10月就业报告将不会 包含失业率。 虽然许多企业保存记录并以电子方式报告薪酬数据，但要事后通过电话联系居民、并让受访者回忆10月 某一周的就业状况，难度要大得多。家庭调查由BLS与人口普查局联合进行，每月调查约6万户家庭。 BLS还将跳过发 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's recent financial results indicate strong demand for AI infrastructure, with revenue growth exceeding 60%, alleviating concerns about an AI bubble [1][3][15]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 reached $57.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 62%, surpassing analyst expectations of $55.19 billion [4]. - Non-GAAP adjusted EPS for Q3 was $1.30, up 60% year-on-year, exceeding the expected $1.26 [5]. - Adjusted gross margin for Q3 was 73.6%, slightly below the expected 74.0% [6]. - Adjusted operating expenses for Q3 were $4.215 billion, a 38% increase year-on-year [7]. Segment Performance - Data center revenue for Q3 was $51.2 billion, a 66% year-on-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations [8]. - Gaming and AI PC revenue for Q3 was $4.3 billion, a 30% year-on-year increase [9]. - Professional visualization revenue for Q3 was $760 million, a 56% year-on-year increase [10]. - Automotive and robotics revenue for Q3 was $592 million, a 32% year-on-year increase [10]. Guidance and Future Outlook - Q4 revenue is projected to be $65 billion, with a range of $63.7 billion to $66.3 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [12]. - Q4 gross margin is expected to be 75.0%, indicating a potential year-on-year increase [13]. - Q4 adjusted operating expenses are projected to be $5 billion, higher than analyst expectations [14]. Market Position and Strategy - Nvidia holds $60.6 billion in cash and equivalents, indicating strong financial support for AI applications [2]. - The company has secured $500 billion in chip orders for 2025 and 2026, highlighting significant future revenue potential [23][24]. - Major clients like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta account for over 40% of Nvidia's sales, with expected AI spending growth of 34% to $440 billion in the next 12 months [22]. Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's CFO noted that the revenue guidance does not include data center computing revenue from China, indicating potential market challenges [19]. - The company is exploring ways to offer more competitive data center products for the Chinese market amid geopolitical tensions [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the debate surrounding the economic lifespan of GPUs, which is crucial for understanding the profitability of major tech companies and the validity of current AI valuations. Bernstein's report suggests a depreciation period of 6 years for GPUs, arguing that this is economically reasonable, while critics like Michael Burry claim the actual lifespan is only 2-3 years, warning of potential accounting manipulation to inflate profits [1][11]. Group 1: Economic Viability of GPU Depreciation - Bernstein analysts argue that a 6-year depreciation period for GPUs is justified, as the cash costs of operating older GPUs are significantly lower than their rental prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that even 5-year-old NVIDIA A100 chips can still yield "comfortable profits," indicating that the depreciation policies of major cloud service providers are fair and not merely for financial embellishment [2][4]. - The analysis shows that the contribution profit margin for A100 chips can reach up to 70%, with operational costs being substantially lower than rental income, providing strong economic incentives for extending GPU usage [4][5]. Group 2: Market Demand and Old GPUs - The current market environment supports the value of older GPUs, as there is overwhelming demand for computing power, with AI labs willing to pay for any available capacity, even for outdated models [6][7]. - Industry analysts note that the A100's computing capacity remains nearly fully booked, suggesting that as long as demand stays strong, older hardware will continue to hold value [8]. Group 3: Depreciation Policies of Tech Giants - Google has a depreciation period of six years for its servers and network equipment, while Microsoft ranges from two to six years, and Meta plans to extend some assets to 5.5 years starting January 2025 [9][10]. - Notably, Amazon has reduced the expected lifespan of some servers and network equipment from six years to five years, reflecting differing views within the industry on hardware iteration speed [10]. Group 4: Criticism and Concerns - Michael Burry warns that tech giants are artificially inflating profits by extending the effective lifespan of assets, predicting that this accounting practice could lead to a profit inflation of $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 [11][12]. - Burry specifically points out that companies like Oracle and Meta could see their profits overstated by 26.9% and 20.8%, respectively, due to these practices [12]. - Previous warnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley indicate that the market may be underestimating the true scale of AI investments and the potential surge in future depreciation costs, which could reveal a lower actual profitability for tech giants than expected [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in December, with a consensus to halt the balance sheet reduction (QT) [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Many participants believe that further rate cuts may be appropriate as the committee shifts towards a more neutral policy stance, although some express reservations about a 25 basis point cut in December [2][4]. - The minutes indicate that a majority of participants are concerned that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks, especially given the current high inflation data and a cooling labor market [4][6]. - There is a notable hawkish sentiment within the Fed, as evidenced by the discussions around the limited impact of recent tariff increases on overall inflation and the need to manage employment risks [4][5]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - Almost all participants agree that it is appropriate to end the balance sheet reduction on December 1, marking the conclusion of a three-and-a-half-year process that began in June 2022 [7][8]. - The Fed plans to reinvest the principal repayments from agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into short-term U.S. Treasury securities, which will replace maturing MBS holdings [7][10]. - Many participants suggest that a higher proportion of short-term Treasury holdings will provide the Fed with greater flexibility to respond to changes in reserve demand or non-reserve liabilities, thereby maintaining adequate reserve levels [11]. Group 3: Financial Stability Concerns - Some Fed officials express concerns about the high asset valuations in financial markets, particularly the risk of a disorderly decline in stock prices if the market reassesses the prospects of AI technologies [5][6]. - There are also worries related to corporate high debt levels, indicating that the Fed is closely monitoring financial stability alongside inflation and employment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of the "Qijing" brand, a collaboration between GAC Group and Huawei, signifies a strategic shift in the Chinese smart automotive market, emphasizing youthfulness and technology as key differentiators in a competitive landscape [2][4][5]. Group 1: Brand Development - The "Qijing" brand was born from a strategic meeting between GAC Group's chairman and Huawei's founder, where the need for a younger and more tech-oriented brand was emphasized [2]. - The brand aims to leverage Huawei's technological expertise and GAC's manufacturing capabilities to create a new category of high-end smart electric vehicles [4][30]. - The first model of "Qijing" is expected to launch in mid-2026, with significant anticipation surrounding its design and technological integration [20][21]. Group 2: Market Insights - The target demographic for "Qijing" includes young consumers, with 41.5% of internet users aged 20 to 29 already utilizing generative AI products, indicating a strong inclination towards technology [9]. - By 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is projected to exceed 52%, highlighting a significant shift towards smart and electric vehicles among younger consumers [10]. - The increasing popularity of smart vehicles among younger generations is evident, with 48.2% of new users of smart car apps being born in the 1990s and 2000s [10]. Group 3: Strategic Collaboration - The partnership between GAC and Huawei is characterized by a deep integration of their operations, moving beyond traditional client-supplier relationships to a collaborative model that enhances product development and marketing [12][13]. - Huawei's extensive experience in smart technology, combined with GAC's 28 years of automotive manufacturing expertise, positions "Qijing" to potentially disrupt the high-end electric vehicle market [17][30]. - The collaboration includes the implementation of Huawei's integrated product development and marketing services, ensuring that user needs are central to the product development process [13][14]. Group 4: Leadership and Management - Liu Jiaming has been appointed as the CEO of "Qijing," bringing over 25 years of automotive industry experience to lead the brand's strategic direction and market expansion [22][25]. - The leadership team is focused on creating a product that embodies technology, fashion, and sports elements, aiming for a strong market impact upon launch [21][29]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming launch of "Qijing" is anticipated to set a new standard for traditional manufacturing companies transitioning to smart technology, with expectations for it to become a model for future collaborations in the automotive industry [29][31]. - The competitive landscape for smart vehicles is expected to intensify by the time "Qijing" enters the market, but the combination of Huawei's technology and GAC's manufacturing experience may provide a unique advantage [30][31].