见闻君 几天前说的事 兑现了，美法院叫停特朗普关税。 据央视新闻，当地时间5月28日， 美国国际贸易 法院阻止了美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普越权 ，对向美国出口多于进口的国家 征收全面关税。 三位分别由里根、奥巴马和特朗普本人任命的法官一致裁定，总统滥用紧急权力，踩踏了宪法红线。若接下来特朗普上诉失败，他发动的贸易战将在10天内戛 然而止。 随后，白宫迅速强硬回应，称将动用"行政权力的每一杠杆"反击这一"未经选举的法官"的裁决。 "对等关税"涉嫌多重非法 美国国际贸易法院在裁决中宣布，特朗普总统上任后不久对多个国家实施的高额关税是非法的。这项裁决涉及两个合并案件——V.O.S. Selections v. United States 和 Oregon v. Department of Homeland Security。 就这一裁决，法院给出了四个重要结论： IEEPA下总统权力有限 宪法要求 "关税、税收在美国各地必须统一" ，因此法院在全国范围内永久禁止了这些关税的实施。 接下来会发生什么？ 上诉争夺战已打响 法院认为1977年《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)不能赋予总统"无 ...

特朗普不仅冻结了哈佛超过26亿美元的联邦研究资金，现在还要求这所常春藤名校将外国学生比例从目 前的31%削减至15%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月28日，美国总统特朗普表示，哈佛大学必须向政府公开其外国学生名 单， 应该对外国学生人数设定15%的上限 。特朗普在白宫明确表态： 我认为他们应该设定大约15%的上限，而不是31%。 我们有想上哈佛和其他学校的人，但因为那里有 外国学生，他们进不去。 特朗普的最新表态并非心血来潮。上周，他曾试图完全禁止哈佛招收国际学生，而此次提出的15%上 限，则是将目标具体化。根据哈佛大学数据，目前国际学生占学生总数的27%，约6800人，远高于 2006年的20%。 外国学生对美国大学而言不仅是国际化象征，更是重要收入来源——他们大多支付全额学费。特朗普周 三表示： 我想确保外国学生是能够热爱我们国家的人。 面对特朗普的步步紧逼，哈佛并未坐以待毙。 这所位于马萨诸塞州剑桥的学府已就联邦资金削减提起诉讼，并成功获得临时法院命令，阻止政府执行 国际学生禁令。 然而据媒体报道，特朗普的态度依然强硬，他直言： 哈佛想斗，想证明自己多聪明，结果被打得落花流水。 他还拿另一所常春藤名校 ...

Core Viewpoint - DeepSeek has released an updated version of its R1 model, enhancing its capabilities in semantic understanding, complex logical reasoning, and long text processing stability, amidst escalating competition in the AI sector [1][2]. Group 1: Model Enhancements - The R1 model has significantly improved its understanding capabilities, with user feedback indicating a notable increase in performance, particularly in activating parameters and presenting key information logically [3]. - Programming capabilities have also seen a substantial upgrade, with users reporting the ability to generate over 1000 lines of code without bugs [4]. - The R1 model is now considered competitive with Claude 4, a leading programming model [5]. Group 2: Previous Model Performance - Earlier this year, DeepSeek released the DeepSeek-V3-0324 model, which outperformed Claude-3.7-Sonnet in various assessments, particularly in mathematics and coding tasks, and was noted for its strong performance in reasoning tasks despite being a non-reasoning model [6]. - The cost-effectiveness of the R1 model is highlighted, being priced at only 1/11 of Claude-3.7-Sonnet and 1/277 of GPT-4.5, while also being open-source and free for commercial use [7]. Group 3: Market Impact - The emergence of the R1 model has led to a decline in global tech stocks, as investors question the necessity of significant investments by companies like Microsoft in developing advanced AI models and services [8]. Group 4: Future Developments - There is ongoing speculation regarding the release of the R2 model, which is expected to enhance code generation capabilities and reasoning in multiple languages. Initial plans for its release were set for early May [9]. - The R2 model is anticipated to utilize a more advanced mixture of experts model, with a total parameter count projected to reach 1.2 trillion, significantly reducing reasoning costs compared to GPT-4 [10]. - Despite the speculation, DeepSeek has not officially confirmed any details regarding the R2 model's release timeline [11].

法院重挫特朗普关税大棋，IEEPA权力边界首次遭遇司法挑战。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月28日， 美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普越权 ，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征 收全面关税。 消息传出后，美股三大指数期货迅速拉涨，集体涨超1%。 现货黄金短线走低30美元，日内跌幅达0.9%，现报3259美元/盎司。 美元指数涨超0.5%。 几天后，这"少有人提及"的利好兑现了。 被忽视的重大利好浮出水面 华尔街见闻此前 就曾指出，当所有人将注意力集中在6月1日的关税大限、特朗普与欧盟的"贸易摊牌"时，美国国际贸易法院的这一裁决可能是市场普遍忽视的 潜在利好。 据媒体报道， 位于曼哈顿的美国国际贸易法院在周三的裁决中明确指出，特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)宣布贸易逆差为"国家紧急状态"并加征 关税的做法，超出了法律授权范围。 法院强调， 宪法明确赋予国会监管对外贸易的专属权力，而总统的紧急权力并不能凌驾于此。 这一裁决源于两起诉讼：一是由无党派组织Liberty Justice Center代表五家小型美国企业提起的诉讼，另一则由包括俄勒冈州在内的13个州联合发起 ...

Core Insights - The emergence of the Mixture of Grouped Experts (MoGE) model by Huawei's Pangu team addresses the inefficiencies of traditional Mixture of Experts (MoE) models, ensuring balanced computational load across devices while maintaining high performance [1][7][27] - The Pangu Pro MoE model, with 72 billion total parameters and 16 billion active parameters, achieves competitive performance in the industry, ranking first among models with less than 100 billion parameters in China [2][22] Group 1: Model Architecture and Efficiency - The MoGE architecture introduces a grouping mechanism that ensures balanced expert activation, significantly improving computational efficiency and reducing system bottlenecks [1][6][12] - The model demonstrates superior throughput, achieving 321 tokens/s on the Ascend 300I Duo platform and 1528 tokens/s on the Ascend 800I A2 platform, outperforming similar-sized dense models [18][26] Group 2: Performance Metrics - In the latest SuperCLUE ranking, Pangu Pro MoE scored 58.75, showcasing its strong capabilities in various reasoning tasks and outperforming other models in complex reasoning scenarios [3][22] - The model exhibits excellent performance across multiple benchmarks, including English and Chinese language tasks, demonstrating its versatility and adaptability in complex cognitive tasks [22][23][24] Group 3: Industry Impact - The introduction of Pangu Pro MoE signifies a shift in the AI industry from a focus on parameter quantity to practical application, enabling efficient cloud inference and supporting high-concurrency real-time scenarios [27] - Huawei's innovations in the MoE architecture redefine the value of large models, providing a robust foundation for AI applications across various industries [27]

会议纪要显示，本月稍早的会议上，美联储决策者普遍认为，经济面临的不确定性比之前更高，对待降息适合保持谨慎，等待特朗普政府关税等政策的影响更 明朗，再考虑行动。 与会者一致认为， 经济前景的不确定性进一步增加，因此，在一系列政府政策调整的净经济效应更加明朗之前，采取谨慎态度是恰当的 。 而且，此次纪要中，联储决策者几乎全都表达了对关税长期推升通胀的担忧。继4月的上次会议纪要后，本次纪要中，联储官员再度警惕，联储货币政策委员 会FOMC可能不得不在抗通胀和保就业之间做出"艰难的取舍"。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的记者Nick Timiraos指出，本次会议纪要中，美联储决策者暗示，他们担心关税大幅上调会推升价格，可能刺激通胀上行。鉴于关税 政策的不确定性加剧，联储官员重申需要采取"谨慎态度"。 Timiraos称，纪要显示，联储决策者基本都认为，经济的不确定性增加，失业和通胀双双上行的风险也增加。这让他们不会改变观望的政策立场。 重申完全有能力等经济和通胀前景更明朗再行动 三周前召开的货币政策会议上，美联储决定继续暂停降息，示警滞胀风险，声明新增失业率和通胀均上升的风险已增加这一表述，并重申经济前景的"不确定 性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in capital flows from Asia to the U.S., driven by systemic risks exposed by the Asian insurance sector's losses, leading to a $7.5 trillion "great retreat" from U.S. assets as Asian capital seeks local alternatives [1][6]. Group 1: Systemic Risks in Asian Insurance - The Asian insurance crisis has revealed systemic risks associated with dollar asset maturity mismatches, particularly highlighted by the recent surge in the Taiwanese dollar [3][4]. - The Taiwanese insurance sector, heavily invested in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, faced substantial unrealized losses due to currency fluctuations, with estimates suggesting a potential loss of $18 billion from a 10% appreciation of the Taiwanese dollar [4]. - Japanese insurance companies also reported significant losses, with Meiji Yasuda Life's bond losses skyrocketing over eightfold to approximately ¥1.386 trillion [4][5]. Group 2: Shift in Investment Strategies - Historically, Asian economies have followed a model of selling goods to the U.S. and reinvesting the proceeds in U.S. assets, accumulating $7.5 trillion in investments since the 1997 Asian financial crisis [6]. - This trend has reversed, with capital inflows to the U.S. dropping to $68 billion by 2024, only 11% of the trade surplus with the U.S. [6]. - Major Japanese insurers are now seeking alternatives to U.S. bonds, indicating a strategic pivot in investment approaches [7]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Opportunities - Analysts predict a "triple benefit scenario" where underperforming Asian currencies appreciate, attracting foreign investment, lowering real interest rates, and boosting local asset prices [1][10]. - The strong current account surplus of over $900 billion among Asia's largest economies provides a solid foundation for this capital reallocation [2][11]. - Foreign investors have shown renewed interest in Japanese bonds and stocks, with net purchases reaching a record ¥8.2 trillion ($570 billion) in April [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), which refers to President Trump's tendency to backtrack on previously announced policies, particularly regarding tariffs and trade, leading to significant market fluctuations [4][11][22]. Group 1: TACO Concept and Market Reactions - "TACO" was coined by Robert Armstrong from the Financial Times, highlighting the market's realization that the U.S. government is quick to retreat from economic pressures when tariffs cause pain [4]. - The "TACO trade" has been observed multiple times, notably in early April when Trump announced and then postponed tariffs, causing market volatility [6][11]. - A recent instance occurred when Trump suggested imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. markets, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.6% [9][12]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Economic Implications - Following the initial announcement of tariffs, Trump delayed their implementation, resulting in a market rebound, with the Dow rising 1.78% and the Nasdaq increasing by 2.47% [12]. - Economic experts, including Justin Wolfer, noted the confusion caused by Trump's inconsistent policy statements, which differ significantly from past presidential behaviors [16][17]. - Goldman Sachs has repeatedly changed its stance on the impact of tariffs, initially predicting sustained inflation but later suggesting that the inflationary impact would be temporary, with a projected core PCE inflation rate of 3.6% later this year [19][20][22]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Future Predictions - Goldman Sachs' revised outlook indicates a less concerning economic situation, with expectations of GDP growth at only 1% and a mild increase in unemployment to 4.5% [22]. - The firm believes that the current inflation threat is lower than in 2021-2022 due to a relaxed labor market and declining wage indicators [23]. - As tariff effects diminish and inflation slows, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, with the first cut expected in December [24].

Core Viewpoint - BYD responded to the recent dealer financial crisis, emphasizing that the issues stem from the dealer's reckless expansion and leveraged operations rather than company policy changes [2]. Group 1: Dealer Financial Crisis - The financial crisis of Jinan Qiancheng, a BYD dealer, was attributed to blind expansion and high leverage, leading to a cash flow crisis [2]. - BYD is providing support to the affected dealer group to help manage customer and employee issues [2]. - The dealer's financial troubles have resulted in customers being unable to use prepaid service packages and difficulties in vehicle registration due to the dealer's financial mismanagement [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The automotive market has seen multiple dealer failures due to intense price competition, leading to deteriorating survival conditions for many dealers [3]. - High inventory levels and the resulting need for low-price sales have contributed to the financial strain on dealers [3]. - The automotive distribution industry is capital-intensive, with many dealers facing high debt-to-asset ratios, some reaching 80% to 90% [3]. Group 3: Financing Difficulties - Negative assessments from banks regarding the dealer industry have made financing difficult and expensive for dealers [3]. - The financial institutions' reluctance to lend has exacerbated the situation, leading to a "snowball" effect for struggling dealers [3]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association has called for automakers to adapt production methods and collaborate with dealers to improve profitability [3][5]. Group 4: Future Directions - The China Automobile Dealers Association is advocating for policy suggestions to address the challenges faced by dealers, focusing on creating a unified national market and optimizing tax policies [4][5].

周二，美国股债汇齐涨，再度上演"TACO交易"。 在因阵亡将士纪念日休市一天后，美股在本周首个交易日集体收涨，道指涨1.78%，纳指涨2.47%，标 普500指数涨2.05%，大型科技股普涨。 美债反弹，收益率普跌，长端美债收益率至少跌超8个基点。30年期德债收益率跌超6个基点。 从威胁到妥协：50%关税的48小时反转 这轮市场过山车始于上周五特朗普突然宣布的炸弹消息。在贸易谈判毫无进展的挫败感驱使下，特朗普 宣布将从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%关税。 市场反应堪称灾难性：道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌256点，跌幅0.6%；标普500指数重挫2.6%；纳斯达克 综合指数下跌1%。这一"天外飞来"的公告让投资者在长周末假期中忐忑不安。 伦敦Saxo Markets的英国投资策略师Neil Wilson在周五特朗普宣布对欧盟征收50%关税的惊人决定后 写道： "希望和预期仍然是，我们将看到'TACO交易'上演。"事实证明，Wilson的预测准确无误。 剧情在周日晚间出现戏剧性反转。 特朗普在社交媒体上发布消息称，应欧盟主席Ursula von der Leyen 的请求，同意将50%关税的实施推迟至7月9日。 "这是 ...