美联储9月能否降息主要取决于7-8月经济数据 华泰证券研报表示，鲍威尔讲话未能提供9月降息的指引，发言偏鹰派。基本面方面，鲍威尔强调就业 市场较为稳健（solid），但承认存在下行风险。利率指引方面，鲍威尔未对9月降息给出明确指引，强 调降息决策取决于后续数据。 往前看，美联储9月能否降息主要取决于7-8月经济数据。维持美联储仍 有可能在9-12月降息两次的判断。 但是，如果就业和通胀数据强于预期，美联储年内降息预期或进一 步回撤。近期关注周五（8月1日）将公布的新增非农就业数据。 免责声明 以上观点来自相关机构，不代表天天基金的观点，不对观点的准确性和完整性做任何保证。 收益率数据仅供参考，过往业绩和走势风格不预示未来表现，不构成投资建议。转引的相关 观点均来自相关机构或公开媒体渠道 不代表天天基金的观点 天天基金不对观点的准确性 GUIDE 摘要 中原证券：短期面临技术性调整压力，但中期上行趋势未改； 中信证券：A股增量市场确立，资金共识将聚焦两大方向 ； 华泰证券：美联储9月能否降息主要取决于7- 8月经济数据。 中原证券 短期面临技术性调整压力，但中期上行趋势未改 中原证券认为， 当前，A股市场已进入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective when investing in pure bond funds, even during periods of market volatility, and suggests strategies for managing investments in both bond and equity markets [2][5][17]. Group 1: Market Volatility and Bond Funds - The article discusses the recent decline in pure bond funds, which are typically considered low-risk investments, highlighting that both stock and bond markets are subject to volatility [2][4]. - It presents data showing that the China Bond Index has had a cumulative increase of 27.27% over the past five years, with an annualized volatility of only 1.48% and a maximum drawdown of 2.01%, indicating the low volatility characteristic of bond assets [5]. - The article encourages investors to adopt a long-term mindset and not to panic sell their bond funds during short-term fluctuations [5][17]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The article notes that the A-share market has been performing well, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, while the bond market has been under pressure due to rising yields and investor sentiment shifting towards equities [8]. - It highlights the "see-saw" effect between stock and bond markets, where funds tend to flow towards the more profitable asset class, leading to redemption pressures on bond funds [8][9]. - Investors are advised to carefully consider their risk tolerance and the appropriateness of their asset allocation before making decisions to switch from bond funds to equity investments [9]. Group 3: Strategies for Investment Allocation - The article introduces the "Fixed Income +" strategy, which allows investors to combine both equity and bond assets, thus avoiding the dilemma of choosing between the two [11][12]. - It compares the performance of Fixed Income + funds with pure bond funds, indicating that Fixed Income + funds have shown better performance in a rising equity market while maintaining lower volatility compared to pure equity funds [13]. - The article suggests that investors can benefit from dynamic adjustments in their portfolios through Fixed Income + funds, which can help capture opportunities in both markets without the stress of frequent reallocation [14][15].

Core Insights - The 2025 Fortune Global 500 list reveals that the total revenue of the listed companies for 2024 is approximately $41.7 trillion, representing a year-on-year growth of about 1.8%, exceeding one-third of the global GDP [1] - The total net profit of these companies has increased by approximately 0.4% year-on-year, amounting to around $2.98 trillion [1] - Walmart continues to lead as the largest company globally with revenues of approximately $681 billion, marking its twelfth consecutive year at the top [1] Company Rankings - JD.com ranks 44th, up 3 places from last year, maintaining its position as the highest-ranked private company from mainland China [2] - Alibaba's ranking improved by 7 places to 63rd, while Tencent rose 25 places to 116th [2] - Pinduoduo saw the most significant increase, climbing 176 places to 266th, and Meituan moved up 57 places to 327th [2] Profitability Insights - Saudi Aramco remains the most profitable company globally with a profit of approximately $105 billion, despite a year-on-year decline of about 13% [2] - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, ranks second in profitability with a net profit of $100.1 billion, surpassing Apple, which ranks third with $93.7 billion [2] - Berkshire Hathaway and Microsoft follow, with profits of over $88.9 billion and $88.1 billion, respectively [2] - Nvidia's profit surged by approximately 145% to around $72.9 billion, marking its first entry into the top ten profitability rankings [2] - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China ranks as the highest Chinese company in net profit, exceeding $50.8 billion and placing 10th globally [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of risk assessment in investment, highlighting that understanding one's risk tolerance is crucial for selecting suitable fund products and making informed investment decisions [3][4][10]. Risk Assessment - Risk assessment is a process to determine an investor's risk tolerance, which helps in identifying appropriate fund investments [4][5]. - Fund products are categorized into five risk levels (R1 to R5), with R1 being low risk and R5 being high risk, while investors are classified into five categories (C1 to C5) based on their risk tolerance [5][6]. - The classification allows investors with lower risk tolerance (C1) to invest in low-risk products (R1), while those with higher risk tolerance (C5) can invest in a broader range of products, including high-risk options [5][7]. Changes in Risk Tolerance - An investor's risk tolerance is generally stable over short periods but can change over longer durations due to factors like age, family assets, and financial knowledge [8]. - For instance, a novice investor may start with a low-risk tolerance (C1) but may evolve to a higher risk tolerance (C2 or C3) as they gain experience and knowledge [8]. Investment Planning - Investors should avoid following market trends and instead focus on investments that align with their risk tolerance [10][11]. - A diversified investment portfolio should be constructed based on risk tolerance, with lower-risk investors (C1, C2) primarily investing in fixed-income funds while allowing for some exposure to mixed funds [11]. - It is crucial for investors to anchor their investment strategies to their risk tolerance rather than market fluctuations to avoid emotional decision-making during market volatility [11]. Long-term Investment - The article advocates for a long-term investment approach, emphasizing that investors should commit to holding suitable funds over time to achieve satisfactory returns [11].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a collective decline, with over 4,200 stocks falling, influenced by external factors and market sentiment, but long-term bullish expectations remain intact [1][4][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices fell over 1%, with significant declines in sectors such as energy metals, coal, and photovoltaics [1][3]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.94 trillion yuan, while the pharmaceutical sector saw an increase despite the overall market downturn [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Decline - A recent meeting with the National Internet Information Office regarding Nvidia's security issues led to a sharp drop in related stocks, impacting overall market sentiment [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the market's short-term pullback is influenced by month-end effects and the outcomes of significant meetings, but the overall environment remains conducive to market stability [4][8]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent pullback, there are positive long-term expectations due to clear upward revisions in the fundamental outlook, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market from both supply and demand sides [9][11]. - External conditions are also shifting positively, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on major countries, which is expected to benefit global economic growth [10]. Group 4: Investment Directions for August - Key developments in August include the implementation of new tariffs and ongoing negotiations between China and the U.S., which may stabilize trade relations and provide more certainty for global economic growth [17]. - Sectors expected to perform well include pharmaceuticals, high-dividend stocks, artificial intelligence, and defense industries, driven by policy improvements and market conditions [24][27]. Group 5: Recommended Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a calm approach amidst market fluctuations, focusing on balanced portfolio management and utilizing strategies like "core-satellite" allocation to optimize investment opportunities [12][13]. - The importance of patience and rational investment decisions is emphasized, as those who remain composed during volatility are likely to reap long-term rewards [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive evaluation of the current economic situation by the Political Bureau meeting, highlighting the need for continuous macroeconomic policy support and the importance of balancing economic recovery with structural adjustments [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Political Bureau meeting assessed the economy as stable with positive indicators, while acknowledging ongoing risks and challenges, particularly from external environments and domestic structural issues [1][2][3]. - The meeting set the tone for the second half of the year, indicating a likely "timely increase" in policy support, with a focus on both short-term growth and long-term reforms [2][4]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting stressed the need for continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight in macroeconomic policies, with an emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in fiscal and monetary policies [4][7][8]. - There is a shift in focus from "using well" to "implementing and refining" existing policies, indicating a more cautious approach to new stimulus measures [8][17]. Capital Market - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the market [6][12][19]. - The capital market is expected to benefit from the overall economic stability and supportive policies, with a positive outlook for equity markets [10][14]. Structural Reforms - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and improving market competition order, while also addressing issues of excessive competition and local government debt risks [5][11][20]. - There is a focus on promoting high-quality development and technological innovation, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth drivers [7][21]. Consumer and Investment Policies - The meeting underscored the need to expand consumption and stabilize investment, with a particular focus on service consumption as a new growth point [12][24]. - Policies will continue to support small and micro enterprises, stabilize foreign trade, and enhance the overall economic environment [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant investment activities of Oriental Harbor Investment Fund, led by Dan Bin, focusing on technology stocks, particularly in the context of the ongoing AI revolution and its long-term potential [1][9]. Group 1: Investment Portfolio Overview - As of the end of Q2, Oriental Harbor's overseas fund held 13 U.S. stocks with a total market value of $1.127 billion, showing a notable increase compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The top five holdings include Nvidia, Alphabet (Google's parent company), Bank Montreal Medium, ProShares Trust, and Meta [3]. - There was a significant increase in the position in Alphabet, which reported Q2 revenues of $96.428 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $28.196 billion, up 19% [4]. Group 2: New Additions and Sector Focus - In Q2, Oriental Harbor made substantial new investments in Tesla, Netflix, and Coinbase, with respective market values of $62.96 million, $57.26 million, and $54.98 million [6]. - Coinbase is recognized as the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S., while Netflix reported Q2 revenues of $11.079 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of $3.125 billion, up 46% [6]. Group 3: Strategic Shift and Long-term Vision - Oriental Harbor has shifted its investment strategy since 2022, moving from a focus on the Chinese and Hong Kong markets to a global perspective, recognizing the opportunities presented by the AI era [9]. - Dan Bin emphasizes that the AI revolution is not a short-term trend but a significant technological shift with a long-term evolution cycle, similar to previous major technological advancements [9][10]. - The fund aims to invest in companies that can change the world, focusing on innovative business models that align with the transformative potential of AI [10].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent announcement by President Trump regarding new tariffs on imports from South Korea, India, and Brazil, indicating a significant shift in trade policy [1][2][3] - South Korea will face a 15% tariff, while India will see a 25% tariff on its exports to the U.S., with Trump citing high tariffs and non-tariff barriers as reasons for the changes [2][3] - Brazil's tariffs will increase to 50%, with specific exemptions for certain products like wood pulp and oil [2][3] Group 2 - Starting August 1, the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on various semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, which could impact industries reliant on these materials [3][4] - The announcement led to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper futures falling nearly 20% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, which aligns with market expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 2 to keep the interest rates unchanged [3]. - The dissenting votes came from two members appointed by former President Trump, who favored a 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against a decision [4]. - The FOMC noted that while the unemployment rate remains low and the job market is stable, inflation is still slightly elevated [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The FOMC acknowledged a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year, suggesting that continued trends could provide grounds for future rate cuts [4]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the high level of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and stated that the Fed's inflation and employment targets still face risks [4]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Future Guidance - There has been significant political pressure from the White House for the Fed to lower interest rates, with Trump recently visiting the Fed's renovation site to exert influence [4]. - Powell did not provide guidance on a potential rate cut in September, indicating that the Fed would consider upcoming employment and inflation data before making any decisions [5]. Group 4: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, S&P 500 down 0.12%, and Nasdaq up 0.15% [7]. - Major tech stocks experienced varied performance, with Meta reporting strong Q2 earnings, leading to a nearly 12% increase in its stock price post-announcement [8]. - The copper market reacted negatively to Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products, resulting in an 18% drop in copper prices [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of various regulatory measures effective from August 1, aimed at enhancing the operational scope and compliance of financial institutions and related sectors [1][2][3][6][7][8][9][11]. Group 2 - The "Regulations on the Management of Currency Brokerage Companies" allows currency brokerage firms to extend their services to include matching transactions for financial institutions across various markets such as currency, bonds, foreign exchange, gold, and derivatives [1]. - The "Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Financing Management Measures for Precious Metals and Gemstone Practitioners" mandates that institutions engaging in cash transactions of 100,000 RMB or equivalent must fulfill anti-money laundering obligations and report large transactions within five working days [2]. - The "Management Measures for Reporting Cybersecurity Incidents in the Business Field of the People's Bank of China" requires financial institutions to report cybersecurity incidents to the People's Bank of China or its branches [3]. - The "Regulations on the Use of Commercial Passwords to Protect Critical Information Infrastructure" stipulates that operators of critical information infrastructure must use commercial passwords and conduct regular security assessments [8]. - The updated "Classification and Catalog of Occupational Diseases" expands the list of occupational diseases from 132 to 135, adding categories for musculoskeletal disorders and mental health issues [9][10]. - The "Management Measures for Monitoring and Evaluating Cosmetic Safety Risks" focuses on monitoring substances that may affect cosmetic quality and safety, particularly those harmful to children and other vulnerable groups [11].