Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying investment opportunities in commodities during extreme market emotions and highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of market dynamics and pricing mechanisms [3]. Group 1: Commodity Selection Framework - The framework for selecting commodities based on the "anti-involution" theme includes four key indicators: industry loss cycles, capacity utilization rate declines, risk factors from past market conditions, and the concentration of leading players [4][5]. - Significant categories identified for investment include industries with notable losses such as PVC, stainless steel, and polysilicon, as well as sectors with concentrated market shares like PTA, asphalt, and soda ash [5]. Group 2: Pricing Logic of Anti-Involution Rebound - The pricing logic surrounding the rebound from anti-involution suggests that punitive pricing strategies may alleviate market pessimism regarding deflation [6]. - The trend of local state-owned assets frequently acquiring listed companies is noted, indicating a potential increase in state-owned components within manufacturing sectors [6]. Group 3: Plant Oil Pricing Dynamics - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. biofuel policy on plant oil pricing, highlighting the government's support for the sector and its implications for agricultural resilience [7]. - Key factors influencing plant oil pricing include the trajectory of crude oil prices and the production rates from Malaysia and Indonesia during the seasonal increase [7][8]. Group 4: OPEC+ Production Risks - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production significantly, with plans to raise daily output by 548,000 barrels in August, exceeding market expectations [12][15]. - The organization is set to complete the unwinding of a voluntary production cut of 2.17 million barrels per day, which may lead to deeper oversupply pressures in the oil market [15]. Group 5: Market Resilience of Caustic Soda - The resilience of caustic soda prices is attributed to the decline in liquid chlorine prices, which has raised production costs for caustic soda [17]. - A potential increase in demand for alumina could further support caustic soda prices, presenting a bullish outlook for this commodity [17]. Group 6: Long-term Commodity Price Trends - The article highlights the debate between being a path trader versus a terminal trader in commodity markets, emphasizing the need for a deep understanding of core pricing logic [18]. - Current economic conditions show a lack of significant technological advancements to drive growth, alongside constraints on fiscal policy, leading to a mid-term outlook of price fluctuations in commodities [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the short-term fluctuations and long-term bearish outlook for pure benzene prices, influenced by crude oil prices and supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Cost and Price Dynamics - The long-term price trend of pure benzene is closely aligned with crude oil prices, which are expected to be under pressure due to OPEC+ plans to increase production, offsetting seasonal consumption improvements in Q3 [4]. - The cost and supply-demand factors are expected to exhibit mixed signals in Q3, leading to potential price fluctuations [13]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - High import volumes of pure benzene remain a significant bearish factor for supply, although domestic refinery maintenance may lead to a seasonal decline in domestic production [7]. - Q3 is anticipated to see a temporary improvement in supply-demand dynamics due to the peak demand season, but Q4 is expected to witness a gradual weakening in demand [9]. - Overall, while there may be a short-term improvement in supply-demand in Q3, the outlook for Q4 suggests increased supply and weakened demand, putting pressure on pure benzene prices [11]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The strategy suggests a short-term focus on fluctuations with a long-term bearish stance, recommending to sell on highs [15]. - For cross-product strategies, locking in styrene processing margins above 800 RMB/ton is advised, along with a recommendation to buy pure benzene and sell styrene on highs [16]. - The PX-BZ spread indicates that while PX valuations are currently under pressure due to weak demand, there is potential for PX valuations to strengthen in late Q3, suggesting a buy on PX and sell on pure benzene [17].

摘要： 上周宏观一波三折。但主要是美国就业市场的波动在主导市场。周中 ADP新增就业人数意外下降，降息显著增加、利率下行，周后期非农 就业人数却超预期强劲，失业率下降至4.1%，市场对降息预期又立刻反转。在降息预期来回摇摆的情况下，金铜价格也缺乏明显的趋势性指 引。 核心观点 1、上周贵金属偏强震荡，铜价有所回落 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 1.8%，白银 上涨 2.68%；沪金2510合约 上涨 1 .1%，沪银2508 合约上涨 1.44%。 主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-1.16%、-0.24%。 2、宏观一波三折，铜价冲高回落 周初 FT报道贝森特关于美国关税的最新言论，其中提到有限国别关税、其次行业关税。市场理解为针对铜的232调查可能推 迟到9、10月份进行，铜价明显拉涨，随后中国方面明确提出过剩行业反内卷，工业品全线上行，对铜价带来提振。周中ADP 新增就业人数意外下降，降息显著增加、利率下行，铜价应声继续反弹，周后期非农就业人数却超预期强劲，失业率下降至 4.1%，市场对降息预期又立刻反转，铜价承压回落。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guide companies to improve product quality, and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. This policy signal has led to a noticeable recovery in the sentiment of the bulk commodity market, with some investors anticipating market benefits similar to those from the supply-side structural reforms of 2016 [3][4]. Policy Impact Analysis - Different periods may have varying policy focuses, necessitating an in-depth analysis of the core impact range of policies. Attention should be directed towards industries with severe overcapacity, widespread losses, high proportions of outdated capacity, and strong policy constraints [4]. - Industries such as polysilicon, industrial silicon, and PVC currently exhibit persistently low profit levels, aligning with the main objectives of policy regulation. The sustainability of profit improvement in these industries hinges on the enforcement strength of policies and the effectiveness of actual capacity clearance [4][5]. Historical Context - The aluminum industry serves as an example where strong policy constraints successfully led to sustained profit improvements during the last capacity reduction phase. Historical experience indicates that there is a certain lag between policy issuance and market rebound, ultimately relying on strict enforcement to achieve profit redistribution within the industry chain [4]. Current Industry Status - Leading companies in industries like polysilicon are beginning to formulate capacity optimization plans. However, due to differences in company nature, interest conflicts, and market constraints, the realization of substantial capacity clearance in the industry will require more time for validation [5]. Profit and Capacity Overview - A summary of key indicators for various bulk commodities, including profit levels, capacity concentration, and the nature of enterprises, has been compiled for reference [6]. - For example, the profit margins and capacity concentration for several commodities are as follows: - PVC: -13% profit margin, 40% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Polysilicon: -13.5% profit margin, 82.23% capacity concentration, private enterprises [10] - Urea: 20% profit margin, 28% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Copper products show varying profit margins, with electrolytic copper at 0.31% and lithium battery copper foil at 26.07% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. employment data, highlighting its implications for the economy and market sentiment, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the potential for market volatility. Employment Data Analysis - The June non-farm payrolls showed a surprising increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding the expectation of 110,000, indicating strong resilience in the labor market [6][10] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, breaking the market expectation of 4.3% [13] - State and local government hiring was a significant contributor to the job growth, with an increase of 48,000 jobs [10] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reached new highs, while the dollar stabilized [8] - The market's confidence was reflected in the continued rise of stock prices despite a decrease in interest rate expectations [8][6] Federal Reserve's Position - The employment data provides a relatively comforting signal for the Federal Reserve, reducing the urgency for intervention in the labor market [6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been adjusted, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year reduced to two [6] Wage and Hour Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, indicating a slowdown in wage growth [20] - The average workweek for private non-farm employees slightly decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours, suggesting potential recruitment demand risks [20] Sector-Specific Insights - Private sector employment saw a surprising decline of 63,000 jobs, primarily due to a slowdown in service sector demand [17] - Manufacturing employment continued to face challenges, with negative growth persisting due to tariff impacts and rising costs [17] Potential Risks - The article notes potential downward risks, including the impact of federal government layoffs and a decrease in private sector demand, which could affect future economic growth [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the coal market, particularly focusing on Mongolian coal and domestic coking coal, highlighting price increases and supply adjustments due to production cuts and seasonal factors [3][5][12]. Group 1: Mongolian Coal Market - Mongolian coal prices have increased from 705 CNY/ton to 740-750 CNY/ton due to supply tightening expectations during the Naadam Festival [3]. - The recent holiday closure of three major ports in Mongolia has contributed to a temporary supply reduction [3]. Group 2: Domestic Coking Coal Production - Domestic coking coal production has seen reductions since May, driven by poor sales at state-owned mines and increased accidents at smaller mines, leading to a notable decrease in visible carbon inventory since mid-June [3][5]. - The reduction in production has started to show effects, with previously hidden inventory being consumed more effectively [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Movements - The recent shift in futures market sentiment has led to increased trading activity, with spot market prices for certain coal types rebounding significantly, such as Shanxi's lean coking coal price rising from 930 CNY/ton to 970 CNY/ton [7]. - The price of Australian low-sulfur coking coal has also seen a notable increase, with the index rising by 9.7% to 196.85 [9]. Group 4: Steel Production and Market Expectations - Steel prices remain stable due to the relative weakness of coke and iron ore prices, with daily pig iron production maintaining a high level of 2.42 million tons [10]. - Discussions around "anti-involution" have positively influenced market expectations for future steel profits, suggesting potential upward pressure on both steel and raw material prices [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while there is a current upward trend in coking coal prices, caution is advised regarding overly bullish expectations, as sustained high production and inventory replenishment from downstream sectors are necessary for further price increases [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the pure benzene industry, highlighting its production processes, supply chain dynamics, and market trends, particularly focusing on the impact of downstream demand and global trade flows [3][5][17]. Summary by Sections Pure Benzene Overview - Benzene (C6H6) is a colorless, flammable liquid that serves as a fundamental petrochemical raw material, indicating the development level of a country's petrochemical industry [3][12]. Pure Benzene Industry Chain - The main downstream products of pure benzene include styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid, with styrene consumption being the largest but declining in recent years due to real estate market influences [12][16]. Production Process - Pure benzene is produced as a byproduct in various chemical processes, with its output influenced by the profitability of producing other chemicals like PX and the demand for blending oil [16]. Global Capacity and Distribution - Global pure benzene capacity has accelerated, primarily driven by China, with Northeast Asia accounting for nearly half of the total capacity [17][24]. Trade Flows - The global trade flow of pure benzene moves from major production areas to consumption regions, with China, the US, and Europe being the primary consumers [20][41]. Domestic Capacity and Production - By the end of 2024, China's pure benzene capacity is projected to reach 25.73 million tons, with significant capacity additions in 2022 and 2023, although growth is expected to slow in 2024 [24]. Seasonal Operation Rates - The operational rates of domestic pure benzene facilities exhibit seasonality, aligning with refinery maintenance schedules, particularly in spring and autumn [33]. Downstream Demand - Downstream demand for pure benzene has been increasing, especially since 2021, driven by the commissioning of styrene and other downstream facilities, although the share of styrene has been declining [35]. Import and Export Dynamics - Domestic pure benzene is primarily imported, with significant imports from South Korea and Southeast Asia, while exports remain minimal [41]. Profitability - The profitability of pure benzene production is typically assessed through the price spread between pure benzene and naphtha, with variations depending on market conditions [46]. Supply and Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance for pure benzene is influenced by various factors, including production costs and downstream demand fluctuations [50]. Futures Contracts - Futures contracts for pure benzene are traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, with specific trading units and delivery standards outlined [53][54]. Delivery Standards - The delivery standards for pure benzene include specifications for appearance, purity, and various chemical content limits, ensuring quality control in trading [54][55]. Delivery Areas and Pricing - Delivery areas for pure benzene are strategically chosen to facilitate trade, with pricing adjustments based on regional supply and demand dynamics [56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a new phase of supply-side reform (Supply-Side Reform 2.0) in response to the government's call for orderly exit of backward production capacity, particularly targeting industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce [4][10]. Group 1: Supply-Side Reform Context - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition and improve product quality, which has raised market expectations for a new wave of supply-side reforms [4][7]. - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the supply-side reforms initiated in 2015, which led to a significant bull market in commodities like steel and cement after addressing overcapacity [7][14]. Group 2: Industry Focus - The current focus of the reform is on new industries such as new energy vehicles and e-commerce, contrasting with the previous focus on traditional sectors like steel and cement [10][12]. - The article highlights that industries with historically low profit margins, such as petrochemicals, electrical equipment, and telecommunications, may also become targets for reform if the anti-involution movement expands [12][14]. Group 3: Demand and Market Dynamics - The sustainability of demand is crucial for determining the long-term direction of industries, as seen in the past when the real estate sector supported commodity prices during the previous supply-side reforms [11][12]. - The article raises questions about whether the current reforms will be limited to downstream sectors or if they will encompass the entire supply chain, which could significantly impact demand and pricing [14][15]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article suggests that the upcoming political bureau meeting will be a critical point for assessing the government's long-term demand-side strategies and their implications for various industries [15]. - It also notes that if the reforms are too aggressive, particularly in sectors that have already undergone significant transformation, there may be a need for government intervention to correct course [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasizes the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market and promoting high-quality development of the marine economy [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The meeting highlights the need to address issues of overcapacity, low-price competition, and the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which aligns with supply-side structural reforms [4][5]. - The steel industry is identified as a key area for reform, with a focus on eliminating ineffective and inefficient production capacities, which is expected to support steel prices [10]. - The cement and glass industries are also under scrutiny due to severe regional overcapacity and intense price competition, with policies aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics and stabilizing prices [10][11]. Group 2: Specific Industries Affected - The steel industry will see impacts on rebar, hot-rolled sheets, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, as the exit of backward capacity is expected to reduce supply and support prices [10]. - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly electrolytic aluminum, is under pressure to replace and eliminate outdated capacities, which will likely support aluminum prices [11]. - The basic chemical raw materials sector, including soda ash, PVC, methanol, and PTA, faces similar challenges of overcapacity and intense competition, with policies aimed at stabilizing prices and promoting healthy industry development [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the long-term outlook for the commodity market, emphasizing the ongoing down cycles in real estate and coal sectors, which are expected to continue impacting commodity demand negatively [5][7][10]. - The real estate market is underperforming due to high inventory levels, and stabilization requires either market-driven solutions or policy interventions. Current housing price pressures indicate that recovery will take time [10][13]. - The construction industry, which includes non-real estate projects, is also expected to decline, further pressuring demand for related commodities. The construction area is projected to continue decreasing until the end of 2027 [11][13]. Group 2 - Coal prices have returned to levels seen between 2016 and 2020, primarily due to increased supply and competition from renewable energy sources. The demand for coal is expected to remain weak as renewable energy continues to grow [16][18]. - The article highlights that while coal prices are at marginal cost levels, a rebound is possible, but a significant reversal in the downtrend is unlikely. This indicates that commodities related to coal and real estate will remain in a down cycle [18][20]. - The performance of commodities linked to the dollar's credit has been strong, with gold and silver prices significantly increasing. The article discusses the potential for a weakening dollar to influence commodity prices positively in the future [20][22]. Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of U.S. fiscal policies on the dollar's strength, suggesting that high fiscal deficits will undermine dollar credibility, which could lead to a favorable environment for commodities like gold [21][24]. - Gold is identified as a leading indicator for other commodities, with its price movements often preceding changes in the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index by about a year [24][27]. - The relationship between the dollar cycle and emerging market growth is emphasized, indicating that a weaker dollar could lead to increased demand for commodities from emerging markets, which are the primary growth drivers for commodity demand [30][33].