以下文章来源于中粮期货研究中心 ，作者中粮期货研究中心 近期纯碱持续上涨，既有龙头焦煤的带动，也有自身微观的一些变化，从节奏上看，目前仍然是多方占据优势的阶段，临近交割或者进入4季度后，纯碱趋势才 有可能出现分化或者拐点。 1 工业品：两超多强 最近工业品风头正盛的无疑是多晶硅和焦煤，一个是新能源的龙头，一个是黑色、建材的龙头，只要龙头不熄火，总能看到下面跟风品种的各种轮动。纯碱、玻璃皆是 如此。而且，跟市场看到的小作文有出入的是，的确有些杭州机构在工业品上亏损，但有些杭州机构近几天已经开始翻多一些基本面无论现实还是预期均在改善的品 种。 所以从资金角度看，这一轮商品的波浪式上涨可能是开始，可能是行至中途，但目前还看不到结束，至少在龙头品种看不到大量仓单和预期无法证伪的情况下，3 季度还是偏紧平衡的预期。龙头品种不倒，像纯碱这些跟风品种可能会临近交割月逐步出现分化，但深度调整难度较大，向上概率也高于向下。 政策及消息面来看， 24日国家发展改革委、市场监管总局发布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见的公告，进一步提到完善低价倾销 的认定标准，规范市场价格秩序，治理"内卷式"竞争 ，无 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the ferroalloy futures market, particularly focusing on manganese silicon and silicon iron, during the first half of 2024, highlighting the driving factors behind these price movements and the subsequent market corrections. Group 1: Price Movements - Manganese silicon prices surged from a low of 6108 CNY/ton to a high of 9786 CNY/ton, marking a two-year peak due to supply disruptions caused by a cyclone affecting South32's operations [2] - Silicon iron prices increased from a minimum of 6402 CNY/ton to 8234 CNY/ton, with a significant daily limit increase at the end of May [3] Group 2: Driving Factors - Supply shock from South32's disruption led to panic in the market, prompting smelters to stockpile, which created a positive feedback loop of rising costs and prices [4] - The release of the "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" in late May triggered market speculation reminiscent of the 2021 "dual control of energy consumption" policy, further boosting market sentiment [6] Group 3: Market Characteristics - Trading volumes for manganese silicon and silicon iron futures reached record highs, with 3.16 million and 2.27 million contracts traded in a single day, respectively, indicating significant market activity [12] - The futures market exhibited a premium over the spot market, encouraging alloy producers to increase output, resulting in a 15% month-on-month rise in manganese silicon production from April to May [13] - Despite the price increases, the actual manganese ore supply gap was limited, with only a 10% shortfall in total imports, indicating that the price surge was driven more by market sentiment than by fundamental supply-demand dynamics [14] Group 4: Market Correction - In June, regulatory measures such as position limits and increased transaction fees were introduced to curb excessive speculation [16] - The supply of manganese ore improved with increased arrivals from South Africa and Gabon, leading to a rise in port inventories to 6.5 million tons, a 20% year-on-year increase [17] - Demand weakened as steel mills reduced production due to losses, causing manganese silicon prices to decline sharply from their late May highs back to around 5900 CNY/ton by September [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the coal market, particularly focusing on coking coal, driven by supply-side policies and market dynamics, highlighting the potential for price increases and the risks associated with a lack of downstream demand support [3][12][33]. Policy Analysis - The National Energy Administration's investigation into coal overproduction has intensified market speculation, leading to a surge in coking coal prices [6][14]. - The central government's stance against industry "involution" and its push for reasonable price increases and optimized capacity have shifted market expectations, alleviating fears of deflation in bulk commodities [12][13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of coordinated policies for stabilizing growth and reducing capacity in key sectors has further fueled price increase expectations [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Most major coal-producing provinces are operating below their announced production capacities, with only Xinjiang slightly exceeding its planned capacity due to abundant resources [9][10]. - The recent surge in coking coal prices is not supported by a corresponding increase in downstream demand, particularly in the coking and steel sectors, indicating a structural disconnect in the market [18][23]. Market Behavior - The coking coal market is experiencing a feedback loop where rising prices are leading to increased speculative trading, while the stock market has not reflected the same bullish sentiment, indicating a potential disconnect between commodity and equity valuations [21][33]. - The article warns of the risks associated with speculative bubbles in the coking coal market, as the underlying fundamentals may not support sustained price increases [33][34]. Strategic Considerations - The government's plan to establish a coal reserve system aims to stabilize prices and prevent excessive volatility, with a target of 300 million tons of adjustable capacity by 2030 [24][25]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of new overproduction policies on supply dynamics, suggesting that the current market environment requires a cautious approach to investment in coal-related assets [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge of the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3600 points for the first time since October 2022, indicating a strong performance in cyclical sectors such as steel, coal, and petrochemicals, which contradicts the belief that dividend assets lack "sharpness" [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a significant presence of institutional investors, with the top five institutions holding nearly 40% of the total market capitalization, which exceeds 15 trillion yuan [2]. - The recent rally from 3100 to 3400 points has been primarily driven by institutional funds rather than retail investors, marking a shift from previous market behaviors [2]. Group 2: Future Trends - Insurance funds are expected to play a crucial role in the market's performance in the second half of the year, especially following a recent policy change that increases the long-term investment assessment weight for insurance capital to 70% [3]. - The cyclical dividend sectors are anticipated to outperform due to three main logical frameworks: mean reversion, calendar effects, and anti-involution logic [3][4]. Group 3: Sector Performance - Historical data shows that from 2016 onwards, the third quarter has seen high success rates for steel, coal, and petrochemical sectors, with average returns of 10.17%, 5.19%, and 4.71% respectively, driven by seasonal demand peaks [4]. - Recent government initiatives to focus on key industries such as steel and petrochemicals signal a structural adjustment, which is expected to lead to a rally in resource stocks, reminiscent of past supply-side reforms [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the extreme market fluctuations during the night trading session of November 11, 2016, known as the "Futures Double 11 Massacre" or "Flash Crash Event," highlighting the rapid transition from a bullish to a bearish market within a short time frame [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The night session began with a strong upward trend, with black commodities (iron ore, coking coal, coke) and copper quickly hitting the limit up, while other commodities like cotton and palm oil also surged significantly [2]. - A flash crash occurred between 21:41 and 21:45, where major short sellers dumped hundreds of billions, triggering a chain reaction of algorithmic trading [3]. - Within three minutes, 12 commodities, including soybean meal, PTA, and rubber, plummeted to their limit down prices [4]. - Notable extreme cases included cotton, which dropped from limit up (+7%) to limit down (-7%) within six minutes, resulting in a 14% fluctuation, and iron ore, which opened its limit up but eventually closed with a 2.16% gain, down over 10% from its peak [5]. Group 2: Closing Results - By the end of the session, black commodities showed mixed results: coking coal and thermal coal slightly increased, while coke and rebar fell by 0.6% and 1.6%, respectively [6]. - Agricultural and chemical products experienced significant declines, with soybean meal and PTA dropping over 5%, rubber and methanol nearly 5%, and cotton down 3.6% [6]. Group 3: Key Factors Behind Volatility - Regulatory policies had a cumulative effect, as major exchanges implemented risk control measures in the week leading up to the event [8]. - The combination of algorithmic trading and high leverage created a situation where large short positions triggered a chain reaction of stop-loss orders, leading to a "long squeeze" [8]. - The majority of commodities were traded with leverage of 8-10 times, meaning a 7% price fluctuation could result in a total loss of capital [8]. - Fundamental bubbles and speculative overheating were evident, with supply-side reforms causing short-term surges in black commodities, while funds shifted from black commodities to lagging agricultural products like cotton [9]. - External factors, such as global risk appetite fluctuations following the U.S. election and liquidity tightening due to the "Double 11" shopping festival, exacerbated the situation [10].

文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 图：新一轮的PPI转正之前会发生什么 基于过去国内经济周期的有限经验，企业-居民存款增速差反转领先于PPI同比14个月， M1反转领先于PPI同比6个月，产能利用率回落领先于PPI同比0-3个月，煤炭等商品的价 格可信度高，可作为标识出清的路牌。 商品显著反弹，直指4月初的缺口回补。继6月煤炭的安全限产&进口收紧，7月多晶硅行 业协会就过度竞争展开纠偏落地后，市场展开了一轮价格修复，此前诟病反弹中道崩殂或 昙花一现的基本依据是仍旧缺乏有效需求的支撑，以至于更多观察到现实层面的挑战—— 现实状态呈现双重困境：一方面，暂无技术显著进步推升经济增长的明显证据；另一方 面，财政政策强度受限于多重条件，包括目前极高的财政杠杆使用、已现拐点的城镇化 率，以及部分国家因人口老龄化、结构失衡和增速放缓形成的需求瓶颈。 行情有自我延续或自我实现的趋势，最近1.2万亿的雅江水利工程提供了未来新增基建并 拉动总需求的可能性。接踵而至的需求预期——雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程（建成可覆盖全 国3%的用电需求）于2025年7月19日举行开工仪式，李强总理出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The listing of propylene futures on July 22 has introduced a new derivative product to the energy and chemical sector, enhancing risk management tools for related enterprises and filling gaps in the C3 industrial chain [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, all seven listed propylene futures contracts surged over 3%, with the main contract PL2601 closing up by 4.14% [4][7]. - The initial listing price for the seven contracts was set at 6350 CNY/ton, slightly below the prevailing spot price of 6375 CNY/ton in Shandong [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic propylene production capacity has rapidly expanded in recent years, primarily driven by PDH and steam cracking processes, leading to a reduced import dependency of approximately 3.6% [4]. - While polypropylene remains the dominant demand driver, its market share is decreasing, with emerging downstream products like epoxy propylene and acrylonitrile experiencing faster growth [4]. - Overall inventory pressure is manageable due to increased integration of production facilities, although the supply-demand balance is expected to stabilize in the long term [4][24]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The market outlook suggests several trading strategies: 1. Consider narrowing the price spread between PP2601 and PL2601 when prices are high, driven by anticipated increases in propylene production capacity exceeding 1.9 million tons in Q3 [25]. 2. Look for opportunities to go long on PDH profits, particularly as propane imports face tariff risks [27]. 3. Monitor for potential price corrections to consider buying PL at lower levels, as current prices are still relatively low [28]. Group 4: Contract Specifications - Propylene futures contracts have a trading unit of 20 tons per contract, with a minimum price fluctuation of 1 CNY/ton and a daily price limit of ±7% [12][15]. - The margin requirement for trading these contracts is set at 8%, with a trading fee of 0.01% of the transaction amount [13][12]. Group 5: Delivery and Storage - The designated delivery regions for propylene futures include several provinces, with specific price differentials applied based on location [19]. - Delivery fees are standardized at 0.5 CNY/ton, and storage fees at designated warehouses are set at 5 CNY/ton per day [20][19]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The future market for propylene is expected to be influenced by the dynamics of upstream and downstream profit distribution, with a focus on the limited production of propylene polymerization [24].

Group 1 - The overall macroeconomic environment last week was neutral to slightly positive, with Trump initially pressuring Powell and rumors of his potential dismissal, which led to a temporary rebound in copper prices before being denied by Trump [1][3] - Inflation data met expectations, reflecting the impact of tariffs on inflation, which caused the market to reduce expectations for interest rate cuts later this year, putting pressure on prices [1][3] - Gold prices showed a strong performance, supported by market resilience and expectations of potential interest rate cuts, despite ongoing tariff risks [4][50] Group 2 - Last week, COMEX gold fell by 0.44% and silver by 1.66%, while SHFE gold and silver rose by 0.45% and 2.58% respectively [2] - The copper market saw a slight rebound, with SHFE copper prices returning above 79,000 yuan/ton, driven by positive sentiment from urban renewal meetings and expectations of further measures against "involution" [6][49] - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was -43.20 USD/ton, showing a slight increase, with the market remaining relatively stable [8] Group 3 - The COMEX copper price curve shifted upward, maintaining a contango structure, while COMEX copper inventories exceeded 240,000 tons, indicating potential for further accumulation [6] - The domestic market for electrolytic copper saw a slight increase in inventory, with total stocks at 144,400 tons, reflecting limited demand from downstream processing enterprises [14] - The processing fees for 8mm refined copper rods increased, particularly in East China, although overall demand remains limited due to seasonal factors [16] Group 4 - The gold and silver prices fluctuated at high levels, with COMEX gold trading between 3,314 and 3,389 USD/oz, and silver between 37.6 and 39.6 USD/oz [19] - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 445,000 ounces to 37.19 million ounces, while silver inventory rose by about 232,000 ounces to 49.724 million ounces [35] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 4 tons to 944 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings fell by 100 tons to 14,658 tons, indicating a shift in market sentiment [40]

紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点小结 周五下午"十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台"消息一出，瞬间点燃期货市场，夜盘相关品种纷纷上涨。其中氧化 铝受政策预期影响，叠加基本面结构性矛盾的双重驱动，在今天盘中触及涨停板。本文梳理了铝业最新政策——今年 工信部发布的《铝产业高质量发展实施方案（2025-2027年）》中涉及氧化铝的政策以及当前基本面的情况，并对后 市行情进行展望。 01 交割逻辑已走完 2025年7月10日，我们发布了报告《云评论|氧化铝：基本面向左，盘面向右》，其中明确表达了当时的上涨行情的首要 原因来自于资金面的交割博弈，其次为基本面的现货紧张，最后的原因才是宏观因素。并指出回归基本面需要等待宏观 情绪消解的前提下，氧化铝厂内库存累积、散单供应压力缓解，成交价格随之松动，从而将盘面定价锚点由"交割博 弈"逻辑切换至"过剩基本面"。上周为07合约交割周，叠加周四厂库数据开始累积，盘面走势震荡下跌符合预期。直至周 五夜盘在政策发力下暴涨。 以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者有色组 在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of propylene futures on July 22, 2025, on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, highlighting the oversupply in the global and domestic propylene market and the expected trading strategies for the first day of trading [3][4]. Group 1: Trading Rules and Initial Conditions - The first batch of contracts for propylene futures will include PL2601 to PL2607, with a listing benchmark price of 6350 CNY/ton. Each contract corresponds to 20 tons, with a minimum price fluctuation unit of 1 CNY/ton. The initial margin requirement is set at 8%, and the price limit for the first trading day is ±14% [4][5]. - It is noted that new futures contracts may face liquidity issues on the first trading day, leading to potential price discrepancies. Therefore, it is recommended to use limit orders to avoid significant deviations from expected prices [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The global propylene market is experiencing an oversupply, with an expected capacity of 169 million tons by 2025, of which China will account for 35%. China's total propylene capacity is projected to exceed 60 million tons per year by 2025 [6]. - Domestic propylene production methods include steam cracking, propane dehydrogenation (PDH), catalytic cracking, and methanol-to-olefins, with PDH being the primary contributor to new capacity. However, the average operating rate in this sector is only 74% [6]. - On the demand side, domestic apparent consumption is expected to grow to 60 million tons, but the overall supply-demand balance remains loose. The polypropylene (PP) sector faces overcapacity, with new capacities expected to exceed 50 million tons by 2025, which may exert long-term pressure on propylene prices [7]. Group 3: Trading Strategies for the First Day - For the first day of trading, a single-sided strategy is recommended, focusing on the recent increase in profits from external procurement of propylene for PP production, which supports propylene prices. Attention should be paid to the actions of companies that have previously halted PP production [9]. - A cross-commodity arbitrage strategy is suggested, where the price difference between propylene and PP has compressed to over 800 CNY/ton, allowing for a strategy of buying propylene and selling PP to lock in processing profits [10].