以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者刘诗瑶 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 复 盘 2008 年 全 球 金 融 危 机 、 2020 年 新 冠 疫 情 、 2023 年 硅 谷 银 行 倒 闭 三 次 典 型 流 动 性 危 机 引 发 的 金 价 波 动，行情演变呈现清晰的阶段性规律：阶段 1）危机发酵初期，黄金终极避险属性凸显，价格逆势上涨；阶段 2）若政策干预滞后，金融机构面临集中赎回与保证金补充压力，将抛售股票、公司债及流动性良好的黄金等各 类可变现资产，金价通常出现 15%-25% 的跌幅；阶段 3）美联储等监管机构启动大规模救市后，市场流动性 修复，金价逐步掉头回升。 值得关注的是，历经三次大型流动性冲击后，美联储的危机应对能力持续升级 —— 干预反应速度更快、政策 工具箱更丰富、框架设计更精准，从 2008 年的滞后应对，到 2020 年的系统性维稳，再到 2023 年的结构性 精准纠偏，流动性危机对市场的负面影响持续收敛。2023 年硅谷银行倒闭事件中，已不再出现明显的阶段 2 ...

行情走势 12月5日（周五 ） 氧化铝期货主力2601合约延续跌势，盘面继续震荡磨底。截至下午收盘，氧化铝期货盘面重心跌破2600元/吨整数关口， 01 现货市场上， 12月5日，中国国产氧化铝现货价格继续下跌，市场日均价2810.95元/吨，与上一交易日价格相比下跌20元/吨，跌幅0.71%。 市场利空仍存，氧化铝价格继续下跌。 氧化铝为啥跌跌不休？ 02 分析指出，本轮下跌的核心驱动在于"供应过剩+成本塌陷"的双重压制：一方面，国内氧化铝运行产能持续处于历史高位，行业库存与交易所仓 单库存分别增至25.3万吨，新疆地区库容饱和导致仓单到期压力激增；另一方面，澳洲FOB价格313.5美元/吨，理论进口窗口开启后，前期进 口氧化铝陆续到港进一步加剧供需矛盾。 一、供应严重过剩，产能持续扩张 收跌2.48%，报收2555元/吨。 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 历史性产能扩张 ：行业在2023-2024年经历高利润时期后，引发大规模产能投放。2025年国内新增产能达1380万吨，总产能攀升至 约1.14亿吨，且2026年仍有新增计划，导致供应压力不断加剧。 库存高企 ：市场无法消化过剩产量，社会库存持续 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in the cancellation of warehouse receipts for copper at the London Metal Exchange (LME), reaching 50,725 tons, the highest level since 2013, indicating a sharp change in spot demand in Asia, particularly in Taiwan and South Korea [4][12]. Group 1: Cancellation of Warehouse Receipts - The cancellation of warehouse receipts is primarily driven by two factors: increased actual demand from downstream manufacturing and traders' expectations of rising copper prices, leading them to withdraw from the exchange inventory system [4][6]. - The cancellation ratio for copper has surged to over 35%, significantly higher than the historical average of 12-15%, reflecting a structural shift in global copper trade [14][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Influences - The article identifies five typical market scenarios that influence copper prices, emphasizing the critical role of cancellation ratios in price movements [7][8][9][10][11]. - Current macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical risks, have increased their explanatory power for price fluctuations to 65%, compared to a historical average of 40% [12]. Group 3: Supply Constraints and Future Outlook - Future copper supply is expected to face three main constraints: declining resource quality, lagging capital expenditures, and increased geopolitical risk premiums [30]. - The article suggests establishing a multi-dimensional monitoring system focusing on the marginal changes in LME cancellation ratios, inventory turnover rates, and macroeconomic sentiment indicators to better navigate the volatile copper market [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current dynamics of silver prices, highlighting the dual drivers of investment demand and industrial consumption, while questioning the sustainability of the current price levels and the fundamental changes in the silver market [4][6][8]. Group 1: Drivers of Silver Price Increase - Silver's price increase is driven by the instability of the credit currency system and the global economic shift towards re-inflation, with investment and allocation demand being the primary support for its strong performance [4][6]. - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector has surged from below 5% to 20% over the past five years, providing a solid foundation for silver demand, although overall industrial demand remains insufficient to support current price levels [6]. Group 2: Gold-Silver Ratio and Market Sentiment - The decline in the gold-silver ratio is a classic feature of a silver bull market, with significant fluctuations reflecting market risk appetite. A high ratio indicates strong risk aversion, while a declining ratio suggests a more favorable market outlook for silver [7]. - The current market conditions indicate that the ongoing repair of the gold-silver ratio is a normal phenomenon in the silver bull market, with a sustained increase in the ratio potentially signaling the end of the bull market [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Silver Market - The silver bull market is currently in an accelerated phase, with multiple factors supporting continued price strength, including inflation expectations and the dynamics of the gold-silver ratio. The overall bullish trend is expected to persist until at least the second half of 2026 [8].

行情走势 12月4日， 今日沪铜跳空高开并大幅上涨，主力CU2601合约盘中一度涨超91000元/吨，盘中最高价较昨日收盘价涨幅约2.7%，截止下午 收盘，沪铜主力合约收涨2.26%，报收90980元/吨。 现货市场全面跟涨，长江现货1 #铜均价报 91,260元/吨 ，暴涨2,110元，升水格局显著扩大至180元/吨。广东地区现货价报91,270元/ 吨，涨幅近2,000元，区域性溢价收窄显示全国市场普涨。 01 LME数据显示，周二亚洲仓库铜净注销仓单规模达50,725吨，这使得LME的铜注册仓单数量降至了7月以来的最低水平 105275 吨。 伦敦金 属交易所仓储网络中的铜材，目前主要来自中国和俄罗斯。而作为全球最大的铜消费区域，亚洲仓库提货活动的骤然升温，也标志着更多持有仓 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 如 果 说 宏 观 是 " 推 波 " ， 那 政 策 就 是 " 助 澜 " 。 2025 年 2 月 ， 美 国 启 动 "232 调 查 " ， 市 场 普 遍 预 期 未 来 会 对 进 口 铜 加 征 关 税 ， 最 高 可 能 达 到 25%。 消息一出，全球贸易商都坐不住了。从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in pulp futures prices is primarily driven by marginal improvements in the market fundamentals, following a period of decline due to oversupply and high inventory levels [4][17]. Supply Side - In October, China's pulp imports totaled 2.618 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%. However, cumulative imports from January to October 2025 increased by 4.79% to 29.674 million tons [7]. - The average operating rate for broadleaf pulp in November was 62.5%, down 7.7 percentage points month-on-month, indicating some production adjustments in the industry [7]. Inventory Side - As of the end of November, the total pulp inventory at major Chinese ports was approximately 2.031 million tons, an increase of 6.17% from the previous month, reflecting a growing inventory pressure [9]. - The import volume of pulp is expected to see only a slight increase in December due to ongoing high inventory levels and weak external market performance [9]. Demand Side - The average operating rate for various paper types in November was 61.29%, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.78 percentage points. However, production levels for life paper decreased by 2.71% compared to the previous month [11]. - The overall price performance of different paper types in November was mixed, with life paper prices slightly rising while other types like double copper paper continued to decline [12]. Market Sentiment - Recent market analysis indicates that the pulp market is experiencing a rebound due to the digestion of previous negative factors and the emergence of new balance, with cost support and improved market sentiment driving prices upward [17][19]. - Despite the recent price increases, the market remains cautious due to high inventory levels and the need for substantial improvements in demand to sustain long-term price increases [18][19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a weakening bullish trend in hot-rolled coil (热卷) commodities, with over 50 stock indices ceasing tracking [2][3] - The quantitative indicators for hot-rolled coil show a trend score of 1.15, with a market valuation of 1.02, historical low volatility at 32.39, and a turnover rate of 0.27 [4] - The supply of hot-rolled coil is at a weekly production of 3.19 million tons, which is higher than the same period in previous years, with total inventory at 4.01 million tons, significantly above historical levels [4] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 156.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, achieving a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan [7] - As of December 2, two steel mills have announced winter storage policies [8] - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide increased by 1.5715 million tons to 15.91569 million tons compared to the previous week [9] Group 3 - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a fluctuating market with bullish emotions, showing a trend degree of 24% for bullish and 6% for bearish [20] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases include BR rubber at 3.99%, pulp at 2.62%, and silver at 2.46% [21] - The top three commodities with the largest increase in positions are asphalt with 14,100 contracts, lithium carbonate with 8,606 contracts, and silicon iron with 8,382 contracts [21]

文 | 姜振飞 来源 | NB的农产品 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 今日近月合约再度大跌，主要是前期市场对淘鸡节奏以及春节需求预期较高导致盘面升水较大， 期货盘面在交割月以及临近交割月走期现回归以及挤升水的逻辑，而远月合约持续上涨主要是四 季度现货价格低迷，市场补栏情绪较低，淘鸡量相对较大，供需过剩结构呈现逐步消化的趋势， 但目前行业产能潜力较大，鸡源较为充裕，加上未来不确定性的淘鸡节奏以及换羽情况，因此短 期的低水平补栏并不能完全代表着未来对应产能下降的幅度。从市场调研信息来看，对产业数据 以及信息了解的规模化企业对明年行情并不悲观，有扩张意愿，但中小规模企业以及散户，因数 据信息闭塞，仅关注当前行情，相对有些悲观，但若年前现货价格回暖以及春节后半个月现货价 格维持3元/斤以上的关口，中小规模企业以及散户根据往年养殖经验，其养殖信心将恢复，淘鸡 情绪将下降，补栏量及换羽量或将增加，因此明年供给端并不存在较为明显的缺口，出现单边趋 势的概率较小，不宜过度看涨明年鸡蛋价格。 期货方面，从期货升水结构来看，市场对明年行情较为期待，但中间涉及变量较多，远月单边逻 辑风险的较大。从交易的角度来看，远月持续 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant rise in the commodity market, particularly in precious and base metals, driven by changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the probability of a cut rising from approximately 30%-40% to 80% [4] - Silver has shown the most remarkable increase, with Comex silver reaching a new high of $58.6 per ounce, marking an annual increase of over 90% [4] - The core support for this price movement stems from a supply-demand gap, with industrial demand remaining resilient despite technological advancements reducing marginal energy consumption [6] Group 2 - Silver demand from the photovoltaic sector remains high, with India's import volume rebounding to an annual scale of 5,500-6,000 tons, contributing to industrial demand resilience [6] - Silver inventories have dropped significantly, with Shanghai Futures Exchange silver stocks falling to around 710 tons (the lowest in nearly a decade) and Comex deliverable stocks decreasing to 4,300 tons [6] - The article notes that the speculative demand driven by rising gold prices has indirectly opened up upward potential for silver [6] Group 3 - The Silver Institute projects global silver production to be 32,115 tons and 31,881 tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a potential decline in demand from solar equipment production due to rising prices [9] - The article highlights that the market is currently in an overbought phase, with a need for caution regarding potential high-level corrections [9] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand follow-through, as the current commodity bull narrative is not driven by traditional demand factors [14] Group 4 - Recent economic data indicates a weak recovery, with the manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.2 and the non-manufacturing PMI at 49.5, suggesting ongoing weak recovery dynamics [14] - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises showed a slight overall increase but a month-on-month decline, indicating uneven economic recovery [15] - The article suggests that while there are some positive signals in policy demand, such as energy storage planning, the overall demand remains weak [16] Group 5 - The article warns of potential risks in the commodity market, particularly in oil prices, which are under pressure due to high inventories and weak demand [17] - It also highlights the importance of identifying marginal changes in supply, with specific attention to the palm oil market, where production has significantly decreased [17] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meetings are noted as critical events that could impact risk assets and market sentiment [21]

Group 1: Macro Environment and Market Trends - The macro environment showed an overall preference, benefiting the market, with improved geopolitical conditions following a phone call between the leaders of China and the U.S., and indications that Ukraine might accept a peace agreement [2][5] - The Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential for interest rate cuts in December, reversing previous market expectations that rates would remain unchanged [2][8] - Copper prices rebounded significantly due to favorable market conditions, with Chile's refined copper premium for exports to the U.S. reaching $500 per ton, and prices for exports to Europe and China at historical highs, raising expectations of a structural shortage in refined copper next year [6][9] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver prices saw significant increases, with COMEX gold rising by 3.83% and silver by 13.43% last week, while SHFE gold and silver also experienced gains of 2.91% and 8.96% respectively [4][25] - The market anticipates further upward movement in gold and silver prices, supported by dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials and an increased probability of a rate cut in December, which rose to 87% [8][25] Group 3: Copper Market Insights - The COMEX copper price experienced a rebound, approaching 89,000 yuan per ton, driven by expectations of a copper shortage next year due to high premiums from Chile [9][10] - The copper market is facing potential structural shortages, with domestic long-term import volumes expected to decline significantly if Chile maintains its high premium levels [10][54] - The current high import long-term quotes may lead to a decrease in copper imports next year, amplifying the monthly gap in refined copper supply [10][54] Group 4: Inventory and Holdings - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 410,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 393,000 ounces, indicating a tightening supply [40] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 4.9 tons to 1,045 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 353 tons to 15,611 tons, reflecting growing investor interest in precious metals [45]