Core Viewpoint - The logic supporting copper price increases has not significantly changed, and after the adjustment, there is potential for a rebound. The first quarter is typically a low season, and without new drivers, prices may fluctuate before the Spring Festival. Post-holiday, with resumption of work and tight spot supply, copper prices may rise again. The short-term price range is expected to be Hu copper [94,000, 120,000] CNY/ton and LME copper [12,000, 15,000] USD/ton. The strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips [2][12]. Focus Point 1: Convergence of US-LME Price Spread - Recently, the US-LME price spread has converged, primarily due to delays or cancellations of US copper tariffs, influenced by the postponement of timber tariff increases. The market anticipates potential exemptions for silver tariffs, which may similarly affect copper tariffs. Additionally, US copper imports are concentrated at the end of December, with COMEX inventories reaching 500,000 tons. Future tariff expectations may still fluctuate [5]. Focus Point 2: Continuous Supply Disruptions - Supply disruptions at the mining level continue to be frequent, exacerbating expectations of tight raw material supply. The global copper concentrate production is projected to increase from 1,888 million tons in 2023 to 1,957 million tons by 2026, with a growth rate of 2.3%. However, the balance of supply and demand indicates a deficit of 2.3 million tons in 2023, which is expected to widen to 154.5 million tons by 2025 [6][8][10]. Focus Point 3: High Prices Significantly Suppress Downstream Consumption - High copper prices have led to a notable decline in downstream consumption, with the operating rate of refined copper rods dropping from an average of 64% in December to 48%. Social inventories accumulated nearly 80,000 tons in December, with an additional 54,000 tons in January. The weak performance in consumption limits the upward momentum of prices, indicating that downstream sectors need time to adjust to the current price levels [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of coking coal options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and provides strategies for trading these options based on supply and demand analysis leading up to the Chinese New Year [5][7]. Supply Analysis - The high volume of imported Mongolian coal continues to suppress coking coal prices, with daily customs clearance averaging 1,204 trucks per day since the New Year, despite a slight decrease compared to late 2025 [5]. - Recent data indicates that the daily customs clearance has exceeded 1,500 trucks, which contributes to a significant supply buffer for coking coal prices [5]. - Domestic coal mines have shown a slower-than-expected recovery post-New Year, warranting further observation for potential increases in domestic coal supply [5]. Demand Analysis - Current iron and steel production may have reached a temporary low, with winter stockpiling expected to support coking coal demand before the New Year [5]. - However, indications of a warmer winter suggest limited space for further stockpiling, which may hinder the formation of a sustained upward trend in demand [5]. Price and Trading Strategy - The recent price of the coking coal 2605 contract peaked at 1,246 RMB/ton, showing a slight premium over the cost of Mongolian raw coal, indicating potential for arbitrage [7]. - Given the current market conditions, the recommendation is to consider short-selling shallow out-of-the-money call options for the coking coal 2605 contract, particularly around the 1,240 RMB/ton mark [7]. - If coking coal prices break upward, it may be driven by further policy actions, suggesting a hedging strategy using out-of-the-money call options for the 2605 or 2609 contracts [8].

| | | | 伊朗对我国能化市场的影响统计2026年1月 | | 一德能化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伊朗产能 | 全球产能 | 占全球产能比重 | 我国从伊朗年讲口虽 | 进口伊朗占国内表需比重 | | 原油 | 330 | 10190 | 3.24% | 150 | 10% | | 沥青 | 2000 | 22000 | 9% | 4 | 0.10% | | 尿素 | 900 | 24195 | 3.72% | 0 | 0 | | 用草 | 1716 | 18000 | 9.53% | 900 | 10% | | 給成 | 70 | 10648 | 0.66% | 0 | 0 | | РУС | 73 | 6256 | 1.17% | 0 | 0 | | 纯碱 | 120 | 8615 | 1.39% | 0 | 0 | | 受乙烯 | 500 | 17000 | 2.94% | 133 | 3.2% | | 聚内瑞 | 100 | 11800 | 0.85% | 0 | 0 | | PX | 142 | 8200 | 1.70% | ...

文 | 史玥明 来源 | 光大期货微资讯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 共性驱动：三大核心因素撑起贵金属牛市根基 01 2026年开年的贵金属市场，用"疯狂"二字形容毫不为过。1月14日，现货白银首次突破90美元，再创历史新高，新年首月累计涨幅 已远超市场预期。一边是投资者涌入贵金属ETF、相关LOF基金份额屡创新高的狂热，一边是芝商所一个月内三次上调保证金、彭博 指数调整引发被动减仓的降温信号。 图源：wind 无论是黄金的稳步攀升，还是白银的暴力突破，本质上都是多重宏观变量共振的结果。梳理当前市场环境，地缘政治风险升温、美联储 降息预期强化、全球战略储备需求激增，这三大共性因素构成了贵金属上涨的核心支撑，且每一个因素都有明确的数据与事件佐证。 1. 地缘政治"风暴眼"持续扩容，避险需求空前高涨 贵金属的避险属性，在全球地缘冲突加剧的背景下被无限放大。进入2026年，全球地缘政治的"火药味"明显变浓，从美洲到中东再到北 极，多重冲突点叠加，直接推升了市场对贵金属的配置需求。 最受关注的莫过于特朗普政府的对外政策动向。据央视新闻报道，美国官员透露，特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方案，包括向中东派 遣航 ...

文 | 贾瑞斌 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2025年，"东西半球划洋而治"的声音逐渐浮现。美国特朗普政府在其最新战略报告中，系统性地提出以"西半球优先"为核心的战 略。尽管东半球霸主尚未形成高度认同，但在不同战略目标驱动下，东西大国可能在阶段性形成某种影响力让渡的共识。 过去几年，"逆全球化"频频被提及，但世界不太可能彻底走向碎片化。东西两大经济体均需要依托自身的区域构建分工与合作体系， 因此"半球化"或许更能概括未来数年的发展趋势。 然而，要将"全球化"推向"半球化"，首要前提是各自构建一套相对完整、涵盖资源、生产与消费的区域经济合作体系。 以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者贾瑞斌 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 相反，对于农产品、原油、甲醇等液体化工品，因储存成本高、易损耗，则不适合作为长期战略储备的优先目标。 下面是相关品种的单吨货值及年度涨跌情况，供投资者参考。 | 棉花 | 15930 | 8.75% | | --- | --- | --- | | 橡胶 | 15700 - - V | 日 -3.68 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is primarily driven by the adjustment of export tax rebate policies, leading to expectations of increased exports and a tight supply chain, despite potential volatility risks in the market [4][11][12]. Supply Side - As of January 12, total lithium carbonate production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, a 0.5% week-on-week rise. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached 3,959 tons, while lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lake sources were 2,956 tons and 3,185 tons, respectively, showing increases of 0.7% and 1.3% [5]. Demand Side - There is significant divergence in market expectations for January production. A neutral outlook suggests a demand decrease of around 5%, while ongoing negotiations in the industry could lead to a potential 10% drop. However, long-term demand from energy storage and heavy-duty vehicles remains strong, with expectations of increased orders [7][10]. Inventory Status - As of January 12, weekly inventory stood at 109,942 tons, with smelter inventory at 18,382 tons and downstream inventory at 36,540 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2,458 tons. The total warehouse receipts as of January 9 reached 25,360 contracts, an increase of 5,079 contracts week-on-week [7][9]. Cost Side - The average cost of lithium carbonate is reported at 152,955.2 yuan/ton, with a production loss of 12,705.2 yuan/ton. The production costs for spodumene and lepidolite are 153,000 yuan/ton and 142,000 yuan/ton, respectively, indicating limited profit margins [9]. Market Perspectives - The adjustment of export tax rebates has led to a surge in export demand, with expectations of concentrated "export rush" behavior in the short term. The rising raw material prices are squeezing profit margins for battery manufacturers, which may lead to increased purchasing activity if prices correct [11][12][14]. - The market sentiment is optimistic due to multiple factors including supply disruptions, improving demand, and policy catalysts. However, caution is advised as the rapid price increases may lead to profit-taking and subsequent volatility [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices, with the Shanghai tin futures contract exceeding 380,000 yuan/ton, is driven by a combination of tight supply and optimistic long-term demand outlooks, despite no significant changes in the fundamental supply-demand dynamics [1][3][8]. Supply Overview - Tin prices have risen sharply from 300,000 yuan/ton to over 370,000 yuan/ton since November 2025, marking an increase of over 23% and approaching the historical high of 390,000 yuan/ton from 2022 [1]. - Domestic tin ore production from January to October 2025 was 61,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while imports of tin ore decreased by 21.7% to 118,000 tons during the same period [3]. - The supply concerns are exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in regions like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia, which have not yet significantly impacted major mining operations but continue to create uncertainty [4][13]. Demand Overview - Domestic apparent consumption of refined tin from January to November 2025 was 161,000 tons, down 5.8% year-on-year, with November consumption dropping 33.7% compared to the previous year [6]. - Despite a seasonal decline in demand from consumer electronics, emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and AI servers are providing some support to tin solder manufacturers, maintaining stable operating rates [6][10]. Inventory Insights - As of January 9, 2026, social inventory of tin ingots in major markets was 8,076 tons, a decrease of 1,233 tons from the previous week, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [6]. - The decline in inventory is attributed to low incoming supplies and extended delivery times from smelters, coupled with low downstream inventory levels prompting restocking [6]. Market Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the current tin price rally is supported by a combination of immediate supply tightness and long-term optimistic demand forecasts, particularly driven by advancements in AI and technology sectors [8][10]. - The macroeconomic environment, including a weak dollar and favorable policies in China, is expected to provide further support for tin prices, with projections indicating that prices may remain elevated in the near term [9][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for 2026, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates, which could lead to a significant market bubble and opportunities for investors [5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in January, driven by tightening short-term liquidity and rising repo rates exceeding the benchmark rate [5][9][10]. - The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk from a peak of $9.1 trillion to just over $6 trillion, impacting the economy, particularly low-income groups, despite rising S&P 500 earnings [10][12]. - The article highlights that the U.S. forward inflation expectations are unlikely to decrease, which could weaken the dollar's credibility and drive up precious metal prices [14][17]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold is currently viewed as a fair valuation at around $4,500 per ounce, serving as an anchor for all valuations in a new credit system [18][22]. - The article suggests that silver has not yet reached its peak, with a potential upward trajectory as indicated by its long-term "cup and handle" pattern [23][26]. - The global liquidity conditions are improving, which historically leads to asset price increases, particularly for precious metals [28][31]. Group 3: Market Cycles and Investment Opportunities - The article posits that 2026 may be at the peak of a long-term market cycle, presenting opportunities for significant asset price increases, including in industrial metals and new asset classes like cryptocurrencies [32][36]. - The current environment is characterized by abundant liquidity, which is favorable for risk investments, and the market sentiment is showing signs of recovery [37][39]. - The article concludes that the trends initiated at the end of last year, including the rise of industrial commodities, gold, silver, and Chinese tech stocks, are expected to continue into this year [45].

以下文章来源于一德菁英汇 ，作者一德菁菁 一德菁英汇 . 期货交易者的紧密合作伙伴！ 文 | 一德菁菁 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 要点速览版： 光伏：短期抢出口，长期促出清 长期：压缩电池企业的出口利润，但中国电池在全球市场仍具备较强竞争力，且对上游原料价格的长期影响有限。 PVC：强化出口导向与价格支撑 短期：目前盘面反应偏积极，政策抬升了价格重心； 中长期：政策被产业普遍解读为利好，成本顺势转嫁，加速国内高成本产能退出，优化供给格局。 近日，财政部、税务总局联合发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》。结合本次公告内容，我们来谈谈对期货的影响。 光伏 根据财政部、税务总局公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏产品增值税出口退税，清单中包含硅片、电池片及组件。 短期：预计在2026年一季度引发抢出口，可能支撑组件、电池片等下游环节的价格，并减缓其减产计划； 长期：增加企业出口成本，有利于加速落后产能出清，促进行业整合。 锂电：分步取消，影响相对温和 短期：2026年二季度前存抢出口预期，对上游原料需求形成一定短期利好，但力度可能弱于光伏； 近几年PVC出口占比逐年提升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in Indonesia's nickel mining quota and management policies have become the central driving force in the global nickel market, reflecting a strategic shift in resource control, fiscal demands, and industrial upgrades [4][5]. Group 1: Indonesia's Fiscal Situation and Non-Tax Revenue - Indonesia's fiscal expenditure model has been characterized by "growth driven by investment, stability maintained by subsidies, and development funded by deficits," with infrastructure spending prioritized at over 15% of the national budget during Jokowi's administration [5][6]. - The government's long-term energy subsidies have created a heavy fiscal burden, especially during periods of social unrest or high global energy prices, with social spending initiatives further increasing fiscal pressure [5][6]. - Non-tax revenue, particularly from resource-related royalties, plays a crucial role in the fiscal structure, accounting for 27%-30% of total revenue, with the nickel industry increasingly contributing to this segment [6]. Group 2: Nickel Mining RKAB Policy Adjustments - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to significantly reduce the nickel mining RKAB quota for 2026 from an expected 379 million tons to around 250 million tons, creating strong market expectations for mid-term supply tightness [7]. - The approval process for RKAB has been restructured to enhance government control over resource outflow, with a shift back to annual approvals from a previous three-year cycle [8]. - The royalty rates for nickel mining have been increased to a floating rate linked to LME nickel prices, raising mining costs and providing solid support for nickel prices [8]. Group 3: Drivers Behind Policy Adjustments - Fiscal pressure is the most immediate driver for these policy changes, as the government faces funding demands from major projects like the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway and the new capital city, Nusantara [9][10]. - The depletion of high-grade nickel resources and the prevalence of illegal mining, which accounts for about 30% of total supply, necessitate stricter controls to enhance revenue and environmental governance [10][11]. - Indonesia aims to upgrade its industrial chain by moving beyond being a mere supplier of raw materials, encouraging local processing of nickel into higher-value products [11]. Group 4: Expected Discrepancies - The efficiency of the RKAB approval process has improved, but actual production often falls short of approved quotas, typically at 70%-80% of the approved amount [12]. - The Philippines is expected to increase its nickel exports, potentially alleviating regional supply tightness, but global nickel markets still face structural oversupply with high inventory levels [13]. - Future adjustments to Indonesia's RKAB quotas may lead to significant supply-demand imbalances, with potential shortfalls projected based on historical production ratios [14]. Group 5: Outlook - Indonesia's nickel policies are reshaping the global supply landscape with a more stringent and refined approach, driving price volatility and establishing a new support level around $18,000 per ton in the LME market [14][15]. - The market should closely monitor the final approval results for RKAB in early 2026, the implementation details of the new resource tax system, and trends in inventory changes [14].