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多头溃败?空头拉响反攻号角?
对冲研投· 2025-07-27 02:21
Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of commodity market trends, focusing on quantitative indicators and fundamental assessments of various commodities, including hot-rolled steel, soda ash, and methanol. Group 1: Quantitative Indicators - The trend for hot-rolled steel (热卷) has shown a decrease, with a value of 1.85 on July 24, 2025, indicating a weakening bullish trend compared to previous days [4][5]. - The 50-stock index (50股指) has a trend value of 1.48, suggesting a stable but slightly weakening bullish sentiment [4][5]. - The 300-stock index (300股指) trend value is 1.71, indicating a similar weakening trend [4][5]. - Methanol (甲醇) shows a trend value of 1.97, indicating a strengthening bullish trend [4]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The supply and demand dynamics for hot-rolled steel indicate a high weekly production level, with demand also at a high compared to previous years, but the overall supply is under pressure [6][7]. - The total inventory of hot-rolled steel is below the levels of previous years, which may support prices despite weak margins [6][7]. - For soda ash, the inventory has reached record highs, and both production methods are currently unprofitable [6]. - Methanol inventory at East China ports is at a low compared to previous years but is showing signs of recovery [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - For soda ash, a short-term rebound trading strategy is suggested, with specific entry and exit points outlined for traders [8]. - The 300-stock index also has a short-term rebound strategy, with similar trading guidelines provided [9]. - Methanol is recommended for a short-term rebound, with entry points specified for both existing and new traders [10].
直播预告 | 如何把控当下市场的机会与风险?
对冲研投· 2025-07-26 07:58
Group 1 - The article promotes a membership program that offers various benefits, including access to upgraded reports, market analysis, and exclusive online discussions [4][5][6]. - Members can enjoy weekly updates on major asset classes, including futures and commodities, along with specialized training programs and personalized coaching [6][8]. - The membership fee is set at 599 per year, providing access to a range of resources and tools for investment management [6][7]. Group 2 - The program includes a 1-on-1 coaching service aimed at developing trading strategies and providing guidance on trading management [8]. - There are structured training camps designed to build a comprehensive trading system through practical exercises and reviews [8]. - The initiative also features a trader incubation plan that combines trading models, market discussions, and regular reviews to foster self-managed trading teams [8].
本轮“反内卷”行情到头了吗?
对冲研投· 2025-07-26 07:58
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extreme volatility in the futures market, particularly referencing the "Double 11 Night Crash" in 2016, and highlights the current trends in various commodities driven by policy expectations and market narratives [2][4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Behavior - The "Double 11 Night Crash" in 2016 saw extreme fluctuations where commodities like cotton dropped from a limit-up of +7% to limit-down of -7% within minutes, showcasing the potential for rapid market shifts [2][3]. - The article emphasizes that the current market behavior reflects a similar pattern where narratives and policy expectations drive prices, often ignoring fundamental supply and demand realities [4][5][6]. Group 2: Current Market Trends - Recent trends indicate a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in sectors like new energy and construction materials, with notable price increases such as 57% for polysilicon and 33.4% for coking coal since July [31][32]. - The article notes that the futures prices are rising faster than spot prices, leading to a narrowing basis, which could indicate a potential correction depending on downstream replenishment intentions [32][34]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain dynamics are highlighted, particularly in the coking coal market, where the disconnect between upstream price increases and downstream demand could lead to market pressures [35][37]. - The article warns that high prices could suppress speculative demand and stimulate foreign production, creating resistance to further price increases [38]. Group 4: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The article discusses the implications of government policies on supply-side reforms, suggesting that past experiences with supply-side reforms will influence current market expectations and behaviors [40][41]. - It raises concerns about the potential for demand-side pain in the current economic environment, contrasting it with previous supply-side reforms that had stronger demand support [44].
穿越焦煤周期:当前行情能否比肩历史牛市?
对冲研投· 2025-07-25 10:32
Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal prices, following a significant drop earlier in the year, raises questions about the potential for a bull market, drawing parallels to historical trends in the past 20 years [1]. Group 1: Historical Bull Markets - The coking coal market has experienced four notable bull markets since the launch of coking coal futures in 2013 [1]. - The first bull market occurred in 2016, driven by supply-side reforms that reduced excess capacity, leading to a price increase from 515 points to 1676 points within the year [4][5]. - The second bull market spanned from August 2020 to March 2022, where prices surged from 1027.5 points to a peak of 3878.5 points, influenced by post-COVID recovery and supply chain disruptions [10][11]. - The third bull market, from November 2021 to May 2022, saw prices rise from 1783 points to 3297.5 points, driven by international supply chain issues and domestic production constraints [14][15]. Group 2: Recent Market Dynamics - In 2023, coking coal prices rebounded from a low of 1195 points to 2179 points, attributed to low inventory levels and supportive policies in the real estate sector [20][21]. - The market is currently experiencing strong sentiment, with expectations of continued price strength due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [25]. - However, the medium-term outlook remains cautious, as fundamental supply-demand dynamics will ultimately dictate market conditions, necessitating close monitoring of production recovery and import levels [26].
研客专栏 | 天然橡胶:泰柬冲突点燃供应焦虑
对冲研投· 2025-07-25 10:32
Core Viewpoints - The current conflict does not have a foundation for a long-term hot war, and the probability of a full-scale war is very low [1][17] - If the conflict ends before September, the rubber tapping disruption may lead to a reduction of 0.5 to 2.62 million tons in Thailand's production, which is relatively limited in impact [1][17] - The expectation for continued production growth in Southeast Asia remains unchanged, but the future increment is still under discussion; the supply of natural rubber is strong while demand is weak, leading to ongoing inventory accumulation and a stable fundamental outlook, with potential short-term fluctuations due to war factors [1][17] Conflict Background - The conflict arises from the disputed 817-kilometer land border between Thailand and Cambodia, particularly concerning the Preah Vihear Temple and surrounding 4.6 square kilometers of land, which Thailand claims sovereignty over despite a 1907 treaty that assigned it to Cambodia [1] Timeline of Events - Initial skirmish occurred on May 28, followed by a landmine incident and escalating diplomatic tensions in July, culminating in armed conflict on July 24, resulting in casualties on both sides [2] Supply Impact - The main conflict area accounts for 5.63% of Thailand's total rubber production, with the northeastern region (Surin, Si Sa Ket, Ubon Ratchathani) projected to produce 26.98 million tons in 2024, representing 29.27% of the country's total output [4][5] - If rubber tapping resumes before August, the maximum production reduction in July is estimated at 0.5 million tons; if the conflict continues into August, the reduction could reach 2.12 million tons [7][8] Market Conditions - As of July 25, the prices for natural rubber in Thailand showed slight fluctuations, with the price for cup rubber at 50 THB/kg and sheet rubber at 63.11 THB/kg, while the spot market in Qingdao saw an increase of 40 USD/ton [11]
直播预告 | 如何把控当下市场的机会与风险?
对冲研投· 2025-07-25 10:32
Group 1 - The article promotes a membership program that offers various benefits, including access to upgraded reports, market analysis, and exclusive online discussions [4][5][6]. - Members can enjoy weekly updates on major asset classes, including futures and commodities, along with specialized training programs and personalized coaching [6][8]. - The membership fee is set at 599 per year, providing access to a range of resources and tools for investment management [6][7]. Group 2 - The program includes a one-on-one coaching service aimed at developing trading strategies and providing guidance on trading management [8]. - A futures trading training camp is offered, which lasts about one week and focuses on building a systematic trading framework through practical exercises and reviews [8]. - The initiative also features a trader incubation plan that combines trading models, market discussions, and regular reviews to foster self-managed trading teams [8].
从四个指标看目前商品的暴涨阶段
对冲研投· 2025-07-24 11:44
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price increases in various sectors, particularly in the new energy, building materials, and coal industries, driven by a shift away from excessive competition and a focus on structural adjustments in key industries [3][4]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Trends - Since July, the new energy sector has seen significant price increases, with polysilicon rising by 57%, industrial silicon by 20%, and lithium carbonate by 13% [3]. - In the black metal sector, coking coal has increased by 33.4%, with other commodities also experiencing gains of over 10% [3]. - The chemical sector has seen prices for caustic soda and alumina rise by more than 10%, while other energy, non-ferrous, and agricultural products have shown relatively muted performance [3]. Group 2: Futures vs. Spot Prices - The futures prices in the affected sectors have risen significantly faster than spot prices, leading to a rapid decrease in basis rates, such as polysilicon at -12% and coking coal at -11% [4]. - The future correction of basis rates will depend on the willingness of downstream buyers to restock and whether the arbitrage window opens for buying spot and hedging in futures [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is influenced by overly pessimistic views from the previous quarter, which led to active price reductions to clear inventory [4]. - Core inventory levels for some commodities are not high, indicating that if the downstream demand continues to improve, there could be a scenario where spot prices rise alongside futures, strengthening the basis [4]. Group 4: Downstream Purchasing Behavior - Downstream industries are exhibiting a "buy on the rise, sell on the fall" mentality, which could lead to synchronized price increases in both spot and futures markets if restocking occurs [4]. - The overall sentiment suggests that until inventory levels reach a relatively high point, commodities may continue to experience upward price pressure [4].
研客专栏 | 纯碱:行情运行到哪一步?
对冲研投· 2025-07-24 11:44
Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in soda ash prices is driven by the strong performance of leading commodities like coking coal and improvements in microeconomic factors, with a bullish sentiment prevailing in the market for the time being [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Products - The leading industrial products currently are polysilicon and coking coal, which are driving the market dynamics for related commodities like soda ash and glass [2]. - Despite some institutions in Hangzhou facing losses, others have begun to adopt a bullish stance on commodities with improving fundamentals, indicating a potential wave of price increases [2]. - The expectation for the third quarter remains tight and balanced, with no significant signs of a downturn as long as the leading commodities maintain their strength [2]. Group 2: Policy and News - Recent announcements from the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation regarding the draft amendment to the Price Law aim to regulate market pricing and combat "involution" competition, providing further support for bullish sentiment [3]. - The "anti-involution" document from the Salt Industry Association has been revisited, contributing to a positive narrative in the market, which enhances the potential for upward price movements [3]. Group 3: Microeconomic Factors - The speculative demand for soda ash and glass has improved due to heightened market enthusiasm, leading to a reduction in inventory levels [4]. - As of July 24, 2025, soda ash factory inventory stood at 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% month-on-month, while glass inventory decreased by 4.69% to 61.896 million boxes [4]. - Recent price increases for soda ash from companies like Yinheng Chemical and Zhongyuan Chemical reflect strong order volumes and a willingness to raise prices, with a recent adjustment of 150 yuan per ton [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current price increase in soda ash is primarily driven by coking coal, with limited improvements in the fundamental aspects of the market [6]. - The third quarter may continue to see strong performance in industrial products due to both financial and policy support, although some products may experience differentiation as delivery dates approach [6]. - The fourth quarter could present a divergence in trends, influenced by the outcomes of the Fourth Plenary Session and the actual performance of demand and exports compared to expectations [6].
还记得2024年铁合金的那波行情吗?
对冲研投· 2025-07-24 11:44
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the ferroalloy futures market, particularly focusing on manganese silicon and silicon iron, during the first half of 2024, highlighting the driving factors behind these price movements and the subsequent market corrections. Group 1: Price Movements - Manganese silicon prices surged from a low of 6108 CNY/ton to a high of 9786 CNY/ton, marking a two-year peak due to supply disruptions caused by a cyclone affecting South32's operations [2] - Silicon iron prices increased from a minimum of 6402 CNY/ton to 8234 CNY/ton, with a significant daily limit increase at the end of May [3] Group 2: Driving Factors - Supply shock from South32's disruption led to panic in the market, prompting smelters to stockpile, which created a positive feedback loop of rising costs and prices [4] - The release of the "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" in late May triggered market speculation reminiscent of the 2021 "dual control of energy consumption" policy, further boosting market sentiment [6] Group 3: Market Characteristics - Trading volumes for manganese silicon and silicon iron futures reached record highs, with 3.16 million and 2.27 million contracts traded in a single day, respectively, indicating significant market activity [12] - The futures market exhibited a premium over the spot market, encouraging alloy producers to increase output, resulting in a 15% month-on-month rise in manganese silicon production from April to May [13] - Despite the price increases, the actual manganese ore supply gap was limited, with only a 10% shortfall in total imports, indicating that the price surge was driven more by market sentiment than by fundamental supply-demand dynamics [14] Group 4: Market Correction - In June, regulatory measures such as position limits and increased transaction fees were introduced to curb excessive speculation [16] - The supply of manganese ore improved with increased arrivals from South Africa and Gabon, leading to a rise in port inventories to 6.5 million tons, a 20% year-on-year increase [17] - Demand weakened as steel mills reduced production due to losses, causing manganese silicon prices to decline sharply from their late May highs back to around 5900 CNY/ton by September [19]
焦煤,城管真要来了
对冲研投· 2025-07-23 09:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the coal market, particularly focusing on coking coal, driven by supply-side policies and market dynamics, highlighting the potential for price increases and the risks associated with a lack of downstream demand support [3][12][33]. Policy Analysis - The National Energy Administration's investigation into coal overproduction has intensified market speculation, leading to a surge in coking coal prices [6][14]. - The central government's stance against industry "involution" and its push for reasonable price increases and optimized capacity have shifted market expectations, alleviating fears of deflation in bulk commodities [12][13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of coordinated policies for stabilizing growth and reducing capacity in key sectors has further fueled price increase expectations [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Most major coal-producing provinces are operating below their announced production capacities, with only Xinjiang slightly exceeding its planned capacity due to abundant resources [9][10]. - The recent surge in coking coal prices is not supported by a corresponding increase in downstream demand, particularly in the coking and steel sectors, indicating a structural disconnect in the market [18][23]. Market Behavior - The coking coal market is experiencing a feedback loop where rising prices are leading to increased speculative trading, while the stock market has not reflected the same bullish sentiment, indicating a potential disconnect between commodity and equity valuations [21][33]. - The article warns of the risks associated with speculative bubbles in the coking coal market, as the underlying fundamentals may not support sustained price increases [33][34]. Strategic Considerations - The government's plan to establish a coal reserve system aims to stabilize prices and prevent excessive volatility, with a target of 300 million tons of adjustable capacity by 2030 [24][25]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of new overproduction policies on supply dynamics, suggesting that the current market environment requires a cautious approach to investment in coal-related assets [35].