Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on soybean imports and the subsequent effects on domestic soybean meal pricing, highlighting the complexity of supply and cost narratives in the market [4][5][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The market's focus is on whether China will resume imports of U.S. soybeans, influenced by recent U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports and trade talks [4][6]. - The USDA's September report predicts a neutral supply-demand balance for the 2025/26 period, with ending stocks estimated at 300 million bushels, reflecting the impact of Chinese demand [5][6]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - If U.S. soybean imports resume, soybean meal pricing will likely be anchored to CBOT soybean prices, with potential upward pressure on prices due to supply constraints and weather impacts not fully reflected in reports [5][8]. - The article outlines a pricing logic where the market currently emphasizes supply increases while potentially overlooking rising costs associated with importing U.S. soybeans [8][9]. Group 3: Import Timing and Scale - The discussion on imports revolves around whether, when, and to what scale U.S. soybeans will be imported, with expectations of a possible agreement by mid-October [6][7]. - If trade resumes, a typical import volume of 23-30 million tons is anticipated, with the possibility of exceeding this depending on negotiation outcomes [7][9]. Group 4: Cost Considerations - The article emphasizes that while supply narratives dominate short-term pricing, cost increases from shipping and processing U.S. soybeans will eventually manifest, impacting domestic soybean meal prices [9][10]. - The potential for higher costs is compounded by the comparison of oil and meal yields between U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, which could affect profitability [9][10]. Group 5: Global Supply Context - Resuming U.S. soybean imports would place domestic supply within a broader global context of supply abundance, indicating that imports are more about redistributing existing stocks rather than eliminating shortages [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "2025 China Cotton and Yarn Industry Investment Summit" in Urumqi, Xinjiang, highlighting the region's strategic importance in the cotton industry and its role in connecting local production to global markets [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The summit will take place on October 31, 2025, in Urumqi, which is recognized as a national-level trading center for cotton and yarn [1]. - The event aims to discuss investment opportunities in the cotton industry, driven by smart agriculture and the Belt and Road Initiative [1]. Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes a series of keynote speeches and roundtable discussions focusing on macroeconomic outlooks, market conditions, and the development of the cotton and textile industry in Xinjiang and beyond [3][4]. - Key topics will cover global and Chinese cotton supply and demand dynamics, the impact of macroeconomic policies, and innovations in cotton pricing models [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The article mentions challenges such as the restructuring of the global cotton supply chain and the effects of U.S. tariff policies on the industry [4]. - It also highlights potential investment opportunities arising from the evolving landscape of the cotton market, including innovations in supply chain services and pricing strategies [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment is neutral, with rubber prices experiencing a decline due to increased short selling and inventory accumulation expectations, alongside government stockpiling actions that indicate a miscalculation in market expectations regarding state reserves [4][5]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Historically, preemptive interest rate cuts tend to have a positive impact on rubber prices [12]. - The analysis of past interest rate cuts shows that they often lead to price increases, with notable examples indicating a potential rise of around 60% following such cuts [13]. Inventory Insights - Although total inventory is decreasing, the rate of decline for dark rubber is slowing, suggesting a potential shift towards inventory accumulation in the future [10][25]. - The market's perception of state reserves has been inaccurate, particularly regarding the availability of all-rubber stocks, which could negatively impact lighter rubber prices [19]. Production Factors - Weather conditions in the northeastern regions are expected to improve, but overall production has not shown significant growth, with potential typhoon impacts on domestic production [5][22]. - Current all-rubber production is anticipated to remain stable or slightly decrease compared to last year [22]. Currency Impact - The Thai Baht has been appreciating, leading to increased costs for rubber production, with a reported 5% increase compared to the same period last year [29]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently focused on the potential for short selling expectations to materialize in the near term, particularly in light of government stockpiling actions [7][10]. - The difference in inventory levels between mixed and standard rubber is expected to reflect a gradual increase, with mixed rubber supplies anticipated to rise post-October [14]. Structural Changes - The RU month difference structure is undergoing changes, with a notable strengthening expected in the RU1-5 month difference as the market approaches delivery periods [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tension between the Federal Reserve and political pressures from Trump, highlighting Powell's ability to maintain the Fed's independence during the recent FOMC meeting [2][5][15]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The focus of the September FOMC meeting was not only on the rate cut magnitude but also on the dynamics within the committee, including new member Milan's rapid inclusion and legal issues faced by member Cook [3]. - Only member Milan supported a 50 basis point cut, while other members, including Waller and Bowman, aligned with the majority [3]. - The median forecast for rate cuts in 2025 was raised from 50 basis points to 75 basis points, with only 9 out of 19 members supporting this adjustment [3]. Group 2: Economic Projections - The FOMC members have become more optimistic about the economy, raising the GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.6% from 1.4% and for 2026 to 1.8% from 1.6% [4]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2026 was lowered to 4.4% from 4.5%, while the core PCE inflation forecast was increased to 2.6% from 2.4% [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The independence of the Fed has led to gold being the biggest loser from the FOMC meeting, as it had previously seen a 10% increase since the Jackson Hole meeting [5]. - Other asset classes experienced limited volatility, with the market's expectations for a series of 25 basis point cuts being met [5]. Group 4: Monetary Policy and Labor Market - Powell expressed concerns about the labor market, introducing the term "risk management cut" to describe the Fed's approach to rate cuts, which may pressure the stock market [9]. - The current labor market faces challenges from reduced immigration and weakening demand, impacting the overall economic outlook [9]. Group 5: Political Pressures - Trump's significant divergence from the Fed's economic growth expectations creates ongoing political pressure, as the Fed's forecasts do not align with Trump's desire for higher growth to alleviate debt pressures [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing regional differentiation, with varying demand and pricing across different areas, leading to a mixed outlook for the industry [5][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 18, 2025, the main contract for FG.CZC glass futures had a trading volume of 1,736,649 lots and an open interest of 1,304,305 lots, indicating active market trading but insufficient bullish sentiment, resulting in a price decline [3]. - The overall glass production and sales maintained above 100, with Shihezi at 113 and Hubei at 127, while East and South China were at 108 and 103 respectively, highlighting significant regional demand differences [5]. Group 2: Supply and Production - As of September 11, 2025, the weekly glass production was 112.12 million tons, a slight increase of 0.38% from the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 76.01%, up by 0.09 percentage points [6]. - The total inventory of flat glass in sample enterprises was 61.58 million heavy boxes, down 2.33% from the previous week and down 14.94% year-on-year, with an inventory turnover period of 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days [8]. Group 3: Demand and Orders - The demand for float glass showed some improvement, but the supply side remains relatively loose, leading to a cautious market outlook, with the peak season demand yet to be fully realized [7]. - As of September 15, 2025, the average order days for deep processing sample enterprises was 10.5 days, an increase of 1.0% from the previous week and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight uptick in order activity [15]. Group 4: Regional Inventory Trends - By September 18, 2025, the total inventory of flat glass in sample enterprises reached a new low of 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 1.1% from the previous period, with regional variations in inventory levels [11]. - The North China region saw a mixed inventory trend, with initial weak demand followed by a recovery as market sentiment improved, while other regions experienced varying degrees of inventory reduction [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the divergence in commodity markets, highlighting the lack of intrinsic demand momentum as a key obstacle for bullish narratives, contrasting with the robust performance of capital markets [5][6]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is experiencing a split, with bullish sentiment being challenged by a lack of internal demand momentum, which is crucial for sustaining price increases [5]. - In the energy sector, particularly crude oil, rising inventories have weakened bullish momentum, and despite geopolitical tensions, there is no significant bullish trend in prices [6]. - The EIA has revised down its 2025 demand growth forecast to 900,000 barrels per day, likely linked to the U.S. economic outlook, while OPEC's recent decisions to increase production reflect a persistent oversupply situation expected to last until early 2026 [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key judgments to make include whether the market's second pricing of supply pressures and weak demand is nearing a marginal end and if the current downward volatility in commodities has reached a bottom, potentially leading to an upward shift in volatility following the Fed's interest rate decisions [7]. - The article suggests continuing to embrace the bullish logic surrounding precious metals, as the self-fulfilling nature of expectations could drive prices higher, although caution is advised regarding potential corrections following interest rate announcements [8]. - Focus on commodities with bullish trading opportunities, particularly those with supply constraints, such as coking coal and polysilicon, while also monitoring external variables affecting supply [8]. Group 3: Export and Demand Trends - The article highlights that China's export sector shows potential for exceeding expectations, with a reported export value of 17.61 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [9]. - The structure of exports is improving, with high-value and high-tech products seeing significant growth, such as integrated circuits and automotive exports, which are expected to support demand for basic metals [9]. - The diversification of export markets is also noted, with significant growth in trade with emerging markets, particularly ASEAN and Africa, indicating reduced reliance on single markets [9]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Insights - The article points out that global aluminum demand is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year, while production growth remains sluggish at around 1.5%, suggesting potential upward price elasticity for aluminum [10]. - The current visible inventory of aluminum is approximately 1.13 million tons, which, while slightly up from the year's low, remains significantly below levels seen in 2024, indicating a potential for price increases [10]. - The relationship between alumina and aluminum has weakened, suggesting that trading strategies focusing on long aluminum and short alumina could have further potential [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the economic cycle in the U.S. from June 2004 to July 2025 based on the Pring cycle classification, indicating that leading indicators are bottoming out and recovering, while coincident indicators are slightly weakening, and lagging indicators remain resilient. Future attention should be on the status of coincident indicators to determine the economic cycle's progression [4][41]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Cycle Analysis - The U.S. economic cycle is divided into six stages based on leading, coincident, and lagging indicators, with specific characteristics for each stage [7][11]. - As of July 2025, if the loose monetary policy improves the fundamentals and coincident indicators rise, the economy may enter the second or third stage of recovery; otherwise, it may face stagflation risks [4][16]. - The asset rotation pattern shows that during the recovery phase, equities outperform commodities, while in the stagflation phase, commodities exhibit anti-inflation advantages [4][17]. Group 2: Comparison of U.S. and China Economic Cycles - Both the U.S. and China are currently in a phase where leading indicators are rising, but the U.S. faces weakening coincident indicators, while China is in a low-level bottoming process [5][21]. - If leading indicators rise significantly in both countries, it could lead to a synchronized recovery phase; otherwise, the U.S. may enter stagflation, and China may remain in a weak economic state [5][22]. - The sensitivity of domestic assets to U.S. indicators is highlighted, with commodities responding more to U.S. coincident indicators, while the Shanghai Composite Index is more sensitive to domestic indicators [6][42]. Group 3: Asset Performance and Strategies - The article outlines that during different stages of the economic cycle, various asset classes perform differently, with equities leading during recovery and commodities performing well during stagflation [4][17]. - Quantitative CTA strategies perform best during periods of synchronized rising leading indicators, suggesting a potential increase in returns and the necessity for such strategies in the current market environment [6][43]. - The performance of major asset classes from June 2004 to July 2025 is summarized, showing varying returns across different economic phases [20][41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of economic development and the historical patterns of supply-side reforms in various countries, emphasizing the importance of understanding these cycles for future investment strategies [4][5][6]. Group 1: Historical Context of Supply-Side Reforms - The article highlights the cyclical characteristics of technological advancements, noting that each revolution leads to changes in production methods and societal structures [5][6]. - It reviews the supply-side reforms in Western countries, particularly the UK and the US, and compares them with China's historical reforms [8][9]. - The UK's supply-side reform from 1979 to 1990 is examined, detailing the economic challenges faced, including high public debt and inflation [10][14][15]. Group 2: Economic Challenges and Responses - The UK faced a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 55.2% in 1979, significantly higher than Germany and France at the time [15]. - The article outlines the inefficiencies of state-owned enterprises in the UK, which contributed to the public debt crisis [18]. - Key reform measures included privatization, tax reductions, and spending cuts, which improved market efficiency and reduced public debt [19][20][22]. Group 3: Comparison with China - The article draws parallels between the UK's and China's economic situations, particularly during the late 1970s and 2016, when both faced significant unemployment and economic restructuring [24][26]. - China's supply-side structural reform initiated in 2016 aimed to address multiple structural contradictions in the economy, similar to the UK's earlier reforms [61][64]. - The goals of China's reform included reducing excess capacity and improving production efficiency, aligning with the historical context of supply-side reforms [63][64]. Group 4: Future Economic Cycles - The article predicts that the global economy will enter a new cycle around 2030, with the current period likely being the tail end of a downward phase [59]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the Kondratiev wave theory, which suggests that economic cycles last 40-60 years and consist of phases of prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery [60]. - The article suggests that the upcoming reforms in 2025 will focus on high-quality development and address issues of resource allocation between new and old economies [69][72]. Group 5: Impact of Policy Changes - The article discusses the "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy in China, which aims to restructure market competition and promote innovation by addressing low-quality competition [69][72]. - It highlights the positive effects of these policies on various industries, such as the solar energy sector, which saw a significant price rebound and improved profitability [72][74]. - The shift in consumer behavior, driven by policy changes, is noted, with an increase in service consumption as a result of reduced aggressive pricing strategies [74][75].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pricing dynamics in the commodity market, driven by domestic supply policies for lithium and silicon, and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve affecting precious metals and copper [4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The market is currently pricing in a potential 75 basis points (bp) cut by the Federal Reserve within the year, with expectations for consecutive cuts in the upcoming FOMC meetings [6]. - Factors contributing to the optimistic outlook for rate cuts include a shift in the Federal Reserve's decision-making approach, the weakening U.S. labor market, and political pressures from the Trump administration [7][8]. - The long-term interest rate target may be adjusted downwards, providing more room for monetary policy adjustments, with current expectations for long-term rates around 2.8%-2.9% [8]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Landscape - The article highlights that inflation may ease next year, influenced by the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve and the impact of tariffs on core commodity inflation [11][13]. - The Zillow rent index shows a significant decline, which may indicate a lagging effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and overall inflation trends [11]. - Despite the weakening labor market, there remains confidence in a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with no immediate signs of a severe downturn [15][16]. Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - Precious metals are expected to have upward elasticity during the rate-cutting cycle, while copper and other base metals may follow suit if the U.S. economy shows signs of improvement [5][16]. - The article suggests that the valuation of commodities will depend on the Federal Reserve's terminal rate outlook and the anticipated adjustments in economic growth rates [16][17]. - There is a notable preference for gold in overseas markets, with domestic silver showing good upward potential, influenced by macroeconomic drivers [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the domestic commodity futures market, highlighting the rise in prices of various commodities, particularly in the coal and steel sectors, driven by market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics [2][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of September 16, domestic commodity futures have mostly risen, with notable increases in coking coal and coke prices, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1][2]. - The second round of price reductions for coking coal has been implemented, with market expectations for further reductions decreasing due to the strengthening of the futures market [2]. - The black chain index has increased, breaking through previous trading ranges, with coking coal leading the gains [2]. Group 2: Price Movements - Coking coal (2601) rose by 5.84% to 1240.5, marking a new high in over a month [6]. - Coke (2601) increased by 4.24% to 1735, also reaching a new high in over half a month [6]. - Other commodities such as glass (2601) and soda ash (2601) saw increases of 3.69% and 3.16%, respectively, indicating a broader upward trend in commodity prices [6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There are rumors of potential production halts in some coal mines in Xinjiang due to overproduction issues, although no confirmed reports have emerged yet [2]. - The steel market is experiencing weak demand, with rebar inventory continuing to accumulate, which may affect the transmission of rising raw material prices to downstream sectors [2]. - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to create a window for inventory replenishment, with lower coal supply supporting price stability in the futures market [2].