欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 对于全球市场的交易者而言，2026年1月30日到31日这两天，注定是难以忘怀的。 一切从白银开始。1月30日，国际白银价格盘中大跌超过18%，伦敦银现价格最低跌破了95美元/盎司。 如果你觉得这已经够刺激了，那第二天发生的事情可能会让你瞠目结舌。 1月31日，国际白银盘中再度暴跌36%，收盘时下跌26.9%，报84.7美元/盎司。 这还不是全部。市场恐慌情绪迅速蔓延。 2月1日，比特币跌至78000美元附近，24小时爆仓超25亿美元。而上周五（1月30日），伦敦金大跌9%，美元指数大涨1%，澳元对 美元大跌1.2%。 一场以贵金属为核心的全面抛售席卷而来。 为什么是白银？为什么是现在？这场暴跌到底意味着什么？ 更重要的是，作为普通投资者，我们从中应该学到什么？ 暴跌的真相：当"拥挤交易"遇上"集体出逃" 01 市场上有一种说法，把暴跌归因于某个具体事件， 比如当时特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席的消息。 但如果你观察更全面的市场表现，会发现一个有趣的现象：在这次剧烈波动中，美债市场异常平静——上周五各期限美债利率波幅均在3个 基点以内。 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 美国联邦储备系统，这个世界最重要央行的主席即将换人。 1月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布，提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接替鲍威尔，出任下一任美联储主席。 这个提名一经公布，就在全球金融市场掀起了波澜。黄金、白银价格应声跳水，美元则出现反弹。市场反应如此剧烈，正是因为这位新 提名人选身上，贴着一些让投资者既期待又担心的标签。 他是谁？横跨华尔街、白宫与美联储的"年轻老将" 01 凯文·沃什，这个名字对很多人来说可能有点陌生，但他的履历堪称"豪华"。他出生于1970年，今年56岁，是所有热门候选人中最年轻的一 位。如果提名获得参议院批准，他将在2026年5月正式接棒。 沃什的职业生涯横跨多个关键领域： 华尔街经验： 他曾在摩根士丹利纽约并购部门工作，担任副总裁兼执行董事。 白宫经验： 2002至2006年，他担任小布什总统的经济政策特别助理，以及白宫国家经济委员会的执行秘书。 美联储经验： 2006年，年仅35岁的沃什被小布什提名，成为美联储历史上最年轻的理事之一。在任期间，他经历了2008年全球金融危机， 并扮演了美联储与华尔街之间的主要联络人角色，是危机处理的" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that blindly applying the "bottom strengthening" logic of industrial products or macro assets to agricultural products poses significant risks, highlighting that differentiation is the norm in the market [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current commodity market shows signs of overall recovery, but the agricultural sector will experience significant differentiation due to independent supply and demand fundamentals and industry chains [7]. - The core focus for 2026 will be on vegetable oils and pulp, driven by revolutionary changes in U.S. biofuel policies and internal industry clearing [7]. - Other commodities like corn, protein meal, and sugar remain in a prolonged "bottom-seeking" process due to a globally or domestically loose supply environment [7]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - For commodities in a bottom-seeking phase, trading strategies should focus on finding "extremely safe odds," meaning entering positions when prices are significantly undervalued and the risk-reward ratio is attractive, rather than chasing trends [8]. - Special caution is advised for commodities undergoing capacity reduction cycles, as optimistic sentiments based on "bottom-fishing consensus" may collapse if the de-capacity process does not meet expectations [8]. Group 3: Specific Commodity Insights - Palm oil is expected to experience a "lithium carbonate moment," supported by three short-term positive factors: replenishment demand from major importing countries like India, spillover effects from rising soybean oil prices, and seasonal production cuts in Malaysia [9]. - The U.S. biofuel policy changes, particularly the 45Z proposal, will significantly impact the demand for domestic vegetable oils, especially soybean oil, which could lead to a substantial increase in prices [12]. - The pulp market is undergoing a fundamental shift, with supply-side constraints becoming more pronounced as North American and Nordic producers cut production, leading to a tightening of raw material supply chains [13]. Group 4: Commodity-Specific Challenges - The corn market is characterized by a "tight balance" with rapid inventory transfers and cautious channel stocking, but faces upward price constraints due to competition from substitutes and government reserves [14]. - The sugar market is under global supply pressure, with major producing countries maintaining production growth, leading to a weak international sugar price outlook despite domestic cost support [15]. - The domestic sugar market is experiencing a peak production period, with increased imports further exacerbating supply pressures, while the demand side shows weak signals as pre-holiday stocking diminishes [16].

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 交易员普遍反映，午后市场呈现明显分化： 上游冶炼厂和贸易商积极出货，但下游加工企业的采购意愿在价格突破11万后显著降温。 三重引擎 02 2026年1月29日，是一个会被铜市记住的日子。 当天上午10点半之后，沪铜主力合约在横盘整理近20天后，像一头挣脱束缚的雄狮，开始了一路向北的狂奔。 沪铜最高触及110970元/ 吨的历史峰值，单日暴涨超6000元，涨幅高达6.71%。 几乎同步，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价也上演着同样的剧情。LME三个月期铜价格飙升超过7%，突破14000美元大关，创下14125 美元/吨的月内新高。内外盘如此默契的联动上涨，在近年来实属罕见。 资金狂潮 01 这场上涨的猛烈程度远超市场预期。早盘时段，沪铜还只是小幅高开，交易相对平静。但10:30之后，市场突然涌入大量买盘，价格开始迅 速脱离震荡区间。 多头资金的集中爆发有着明显的信号。持仓数据显示， 沪铜主力合约单日增仓1.5万手，成交量激增21万手，呈现出典型的"量价齐升"态 势。 这种资金涌入的规模，让人联想到2021年那轮波澜壮阔的商品牛市。 这已经不是单纯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent commodity market is not characterized by a rotational bull market across different sectors and varieties, but rather by isolated interest from funds in certain products, indicating a lack of macroeconomic forces influencing the entire commodity market. Given that many products have reached high levels and there are signs of weaker products catching up, a prolonged adjustment period in the commodity market is anticipated [4][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commodity market has seen rapid surges in specific star products such as gold, silver, corn, PTA, and styrene, leading to speculation about a rotational bull market. However, the market's recent volatility does not exhibit typical rotational characteristics [4][6]. - The traditional patterns of the commodity market can be categorized into three types: 1. **Product Differentiation Pattern**: Products move independently based on their fundamentals, typically occurring in the absence of significant macro themes [5]. 2. **Leading Product Pattern**: A clear leader, such as the black series during the 2016 supply-side reform, drives the market, with other products following its lead [5]. 3. **Rotational Pattern**: The summer of 2023 exemplified this, with a sequence of rotations among different sectors, although the current market displays a mix of characteristics from both rotational and leading product patterns [6]. Group 2: Chemical Products Outlook - There is a prevailing market sentiment that the commodity market is in a rotational bull phase, particularly with expectations for chemical products to take over the upward momentum. However, this assessment may be flawed [7]. - The performance of the non-ferrous metals, particularly copper and nickel, has shown significant gains over a prolonged period, but their current high levels and insufficient correction suggest limited potential for further increases [7]. - The chemical products sector, while showing some promise, faces challenges: the recent surge began from a relatively high point rather than a low base, indicating a rebound rather than a sustainable growth phase. Key products like styrene have already seen substantial gains, and the leading products lack the momentum for continued upward movement [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in aluminum prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, cross-market sentiment resonance, and a solid long-term narrative of supply constraints [4][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 28, significant capital inflow into Shanghai aluminum led to a price increase of 5.75%, reaching a historical high, with over 50,000 contracts added and more than 1.7 billion yuan flowing in [2]. - The upstream alumina market saw a reduction in positions and a price increase of 3.27%, closing at 2,811 yuan/ton, with June and July contracts also rising over 3% [2]. - Several aluminum-related stocks in the A-share market, such as China Aluminum and Yunnan Aluminum, hit their daily price limits [2]. Group 2: Driving Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, are raising concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, which produces about 9% of global electrolytic aluminum [4]. - A weaker US dollar is benefiting dollar-denominated metals, while speculative funds are shifting towards aluminum due to its relative undervaluation compared to other non-ferrous metals [4]. - The strong performance of leading aluminum stocks in the A-share market has sent bullish signals to the futures market, creating a positive feedback loop between stock and futures prices [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its policy ceiling of 45 million tons, with operational capacity at 44.1 million tons, indicating limited room for growth [6][10]. - European aluminum production is facing structural shortages, with local production at only 950,000 tons against a consumption of 13.5 million tons, creating a significant gap [7]. - New capacity in Indonesia is expected to be slow to materialize due to severe power supply bottlenecks, with construction timelines extending to 3-5 years [8]. - Long-term demand for aluminum is projected to grow significantly in emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, reinforcing market consensus on future supply-demand gaps [10]. Group 4: Current Market Overview - The average price of domestic aluminum (A00) is reported at 24,320 yuan/ton, with regional price differences indicating stronger demand in southern China [11]. - Weekly electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly to 85,770 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [11]. - The import volume of electrolytic aluminum in December was 513,700 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.56% [12]. - Downstream demand is showing a divergence, with traditional sectors like construction underperforming, while new sectors like electric vehicles are driving robust demand [14]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent price increases are attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and market sentiment, with expectations of continued upward pressure on prices despite potential demand suppression from high prices [17][19]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term fundamentals may appear weak, the long-term bullish narrative remains intact, providing opportunities for long-term investors [19][20]. - The market is advised to be cautious of high volatility due to the interplay of short-term weaknesses and long-term strengths, with a focus on strategic positioning rather than aggressive trading [19][21].

文 | 广州期货 来源 | 广州期货 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 当前能化板块降温属于阶段性回调，并非趋势性逆转，核心主线仍是 "供给出清、政策反内卷与需求弱复苏" 的结构性修复。短期受资金获利了 结、春节备货尾声与成本波动影响，聚酯链尤其是PTA、苯乙烯强势延续，甲醇、聚烯烃呈区间震荡、结构分化格局，中期上行逻辑未破，后续 重点关注节后 2-3 月复工补库与需求验证，长期则看产能周期与估值修复的共振效应。 本轮能化板块降温的核心成因 01 2026年以来能化板块率先走出普涨行情，纯苯、苯乙烯、PTA 涨幅均超 10%。资金面来看，板块普涨后资金短期获利落袋为安，成为行情转向 的直接推手，进而引发板块内部分化，龙头品种相对抗跌、跟风品种回调显著。 成本端来看，原油价格震荡回落叠加北美寒潮影响逐步消退，能化品成本支撑边际减弱，纯苯-苯乙烯、PX-PTA 等油系品种随原油同步窄幅震 荡回调；同时市场对全球降息节奏、国内稳增长政策的预期边际走弱，顺周期属性的能化板块整体承压，进一步加剧短期调整。 产业基本面来看，1 月下旬传统下游陆续降负、补库收尾，现货成交走弱直接导致价格上行动力衰减，且 PTA、乙二 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in silver prices is viewed as a necessary technical correction rather than a reversal of the upward trend, indicating that the market is undergoing a significant emotional release after a period of rapid increases [3][21]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On January 27, 2026, London spot silver experienced a dramatic drop of 12.5% after reaching a historical high of $117.7 per ounce, falling to around $103, marking the largest single-day decline since December 2025 [4]. - The Shanghai silver futures also saw a simultaneous drop of approximately 10%, reflecting the volatility in the market [4]. Group 2: Driving Forces Behind Price Surge - The surge in silver prices since November 2025 has been significantly driven by domestic Chinese market forces, with trading volume in December 2025 reaching 73.6 million contracts, a year-on-year increase of 218.47% [5][6]. - Structural characteristics of the domestic silver market include a persistent backwardation in futures contracts and a significant premium of domestic prices over international benchmarks, indicating a tight supply situation [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The recent price drop was influenced by a combination of forced short-covering and profit-taking by long positions, leading to a decrease in open interest from 320,000 to 305,000 contracts [14][15]. - Despite the current high volatility, the underlying fundamentals suggest that the upward trend in silver prices is likely to continue, supported by the strong macroeconomic backdrop of gold, which provides a price cushion for silver [18][21]. - The market still has potential for further upward movement, driven by untapped Asian capital, persistent geopolitical risk premiums, and expectations surrounding upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings [19][20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of commodity markets, highlighting the sequential rotation of different commodities as indicators of economic phases. It emphasizes that the current market signals suggest the beginning of a new commodity cycle, characterized by differentiation and rotation rather than a broad-based rally [1][13]. Group 1: Commodity Phases - The first phase of a commodity bull market typically features precious metals like gold and silver, which shine during economic uncertainty or stagflation, as seen since March 2024 with gold prices reaching $4000 per ounce [2][3]. - The second phase involves industrial metals, such as copper, which signal economic recovery as demand for raw materials increases when economic stimulus measures take effect. This phase began in November 2025 with rising copper prices [3][4]. - The third phase is marked by a surge in energy and chemical products, driven by overheating economies where demand for oil and related products spikes, often accompanied by inflationary pressures [4][5]. - The final phase sees agricultural products gaining traction, as their demand remains relatively stable regardless of economic conditions, often influenced by production costs and weather conditions [5][6]. Group 2: Current Market Analysis - Current market conditions indicate that gold has reached a historical high, signaling strong global demand for safe-haven assets and concerns about the traditional monetary system, marking a clear first phase signal [10]. - The strong performance of industrial metals suggests that market participants are pricing in expectations of economic recovery, with significant investments flowing into this sector [10][11]. - Energy and chemical products are still in a relatively low position, indicating that the global economy has not yet reached a stage of full operational capacity, suggesting that the third phase is still developing [10][11]. - Agricultural products are influenced more by specific supply and demand factors rather than broad economic trends, indicating that they are not yet in a position to lead the cycle [11][12]. Group 3: Macro Indicators - The dollar's decline since 2025 is noted as a favorable backdrop for commodity price increases, as historically, a weakening dollar correlates with rising commodity prices [12]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has shown signs of recovery since February 2025, which typically precedes a broader rise in commodity prices by 1-3 months, indicating increased global trade activity [12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that the current market environment presents structural opportunities, particularly in precious metals and select industrial metals, which have clear investment logic supported by macro indicators [13][14]. - Energy and chemical sectors require patience as their comprehensive market movements depend on confirming signals of economic overheating, while agricultural investments should focus on specific supply narratives rather than broader trends [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the surge in gold prices, surpassing $5000 per ounce, is driven by a combination of factors including distrust in the US dollar, central banks' strategic gold purchases, and global risk aversion [1][2][4][12] - Gold entered a bull market starting from the end of 2021, with a significant price increase of 64% in 2025, reaching $4349.9 per ounce by the end of that year [1][2] - The price of gold has risen over 15% in just three weeks of 2026, indicating a strong upward momentum [1] Group 2 - The first major reason for the gold price surge is the growing distrust in the US dollar, exacerbated by the increasing US national debt, which exceeded $38 trillion by the end of 2025 [2][3] - The second reason is the global central banks' shift from being net sellers to net buyers of gold, with a record net purchase of 1089.38 tons in 2024, the highest since 1950 [3][4] - The third reason is the global geopolitical instability, which has heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a record high of 4025 tons in gold ETF holdings by the end of 2025 [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between gold and the US dollar is described as a "seesaw," where typically one rises while the other falls, influenced by factors such as pricing effects, opportunity costs, and risk aversion [5][6] - Historical patterns show that gold and the dollar have had inverse relationships during various economic crises, indicating a complex interplay between the two assets [6][7] - Current dynamics suggest that gold's pricing mechanisms are evolving, reflecting broader concerns about the future of the monetary system rather than solely traditional interest rate logic [7][8] Group 4 - The article discusses the potential shift in the global monetary system, suggesting that the dominance of the US dollar may be weakening, with signs of de-dollarization emerging post-2022 [8][9] - Central banks are diversifying their reserves, with gold now surpassing US Treasury holdings in value, indicating a move away from reliance on the dollar [9][10] - While the dollar's dominance is still significant, the article posits that the current changes may represent the beginning of a long process of "hegemonic weakening" and "system diversification" rather than an immediate overhaul [10][11] Group 5 - The article concludes that the recent surge in gold prices reflects deeper concerns about debt inflation, geopolitical risks, and the foundational trust in the US dollar [12][13] - The ongoing trends suggest that gold's role may evolve into a stabilizing asset in a potentially diversified monetary landscape, serving as a hedge against dollar credit risks [11][12] - Understanding gold's rising significance may provide insights into the broader search for certainty in an increasingly uncertain world [12]