Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of avoiding conspiracy theories in market analysis, advocating for a focus on the actual events occurring in the market rather than oversimplified narratives [2] Group 1: Key Market Observations - Corn: Concerns over quality and strengthening basis due to rainfall in North China, leading to a contango structure in the futures market, indicating pessimistic future expectations while the spot market shows resilience [3] - Palm Oil: October's Malaysian MPOB inventory is expected to peak at 2.4-2.5 million tons, presenting a moment of supply-demand looseness, with two potential pricing paths: continued bearish outlook or recognizing the absolute inventory level as not high, potentially setting up for future production cuts [4] - U.S.-China Relations: A temporary diplomatic thaw has provided significant upward momentum for U.S. soybeans, with prices rebounding more than the decline in South American premiums, impacting domestic soybean meal prices [4] Group 2: Seasonal Patterns and Trends - A key seasonal pattern indicates that Northern Hemisphere agricultural products are harvested in September-October, with price trends established prior to this period often exhibiting strong inertia, making it difficult for trends to reverse during peak listing periods [5] - Example 1: Corn prices fell sharply in early October, reflecting a continuation of weak expectations, evidenced by inverse trading strategies [6] - Example 2: The downward trend in red dates established in mid-October is also difficult to reverse, with significant declines observed in recent years [6] Group 3: Strategic Outlook for Key Commodities - Peanuts: Demand from peanut oil factories is crucial for market support; any narrative of production cuts may be invalidated if demand does not provide backing [7] - Soybean Meal: The easing of U.S.-China relations and upcoming weather speculation in South America provide cost support for U.S. soybeans and domestic soybean meal, but the overall supply remains ample, limiting upward potential [7] - Apples and Red Dates: Valuations are highly dependent on delivery costs and spot prices, necessitating a deep understanding of how futures and insurance models impact spot pricing [7] Group 4: Conclusion - The current market's contrarian direction is becoming clearer, with a focus on actual market facts such as the strength of corn basis, signals of palm oil inventory turning points, and the substantive impacts of U.S.-China trade policies to identify genuine trading opportunities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the long-term upward trend of copper prices driven by three main factors: the commodity currency logic, structural supply shortages, and new demand dynamics, while also discussing the recent price pullback and future marginal driving conditions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Copper Price Surge - Commodity currency logic: The global monetary system's credit challenges and major central banks' large-scale easing have led to strong inflation expectations, making copper's "commodity currency" attribute a dominant price driver over its "industrial commodity" attribute [4][10]. - Structural supply shortages: Factors such as "policy-induced stockpiling," "mine production cuts," and "catalytic accidents" have created significant supply pressures, making it easy for demand increases to lead to substantial price hikes [4][28]. - New demand dynamics: The current copper price increase is driven not only by supply tightening but also by significant demand growth from AI computing power, global energy infrastructure reconstruction, and emerging technology sectors, reshaping the long-term supply-demand landscape for copper [4][29]. Group 2: Reasons for Recent Price Pullback - The relative tightening of global dollar liquidity is the main tail risk affecting copper prices, with the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve withdrawing dollar funds from risk assets since October, leading to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar index [5][37]. Group 3: Future Marginal Driving Conditions - The medium to long-term supply-demand gap for copper is predictable, with the largest marginal variables coming from macroeconomic factors that will influence copper prices from the demand side [6][34]. - The continuation of the commodity currency logic is crucial, as the market's perception of physical asset attractiveness remains strong amid expectations of global liquidity easing [34]. - The market's expectations regarding interest rate cuts and the cessation of balance sheet reduction are significant, as they can define recovery or recession scenarios [36][37]. - The gradual reduction of risks in U.S.-China relations may also influence copper prices positively, as recent negotiations have led to a decrease in demand risk [40].

晓策佬 . 商品期货领域，转载诸路干货，原创都是实话，当然会有广告。 以下文章来源于晓策佬 ，作者乖乖隆的冬 甲醇港口库存持续150万吨以上的历史高位，陷入近年罕有的供需困局。当下已经是11月初，MA01合约的 腾挪空间捉襟见肘。且不说国内甲醇开工率维持高位、亦或国产甲醇走弱趋势，港口的漂货和未来两周进口 到港量更是让人窒息。 文 | 乖乖隆的冬 来源 | 晓策佬 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 MANUFACTURE 这个局面是怎样形成的，作为事后诸葛，我们简单回顾一下： 1、以色列6月13日凌晨对伊朗实施空袭，6月21日，美军空袭了伊朗三处核设施，伊朗23日向美国驻 卡塔尔空军基地发起导弹袭击。24日，美方宣布伊以停火。于是13日暴涨，24日暴跌，一轮行情结 束，但甲醇底部是抬升的。 （地缘） 2、7月下旬，反内卷交易开启，甲醇作为煤化工代表，具备一定政策想象力，加上MA01合约历来相 对较强，甲醇成功推上了2600的高位。 （反内卷） 3、伊以冲突影响消退，伊朗甲醇陆续发运中国，构成了较大的库存"堰塞湖"。但市场预期伊朗冬季限 气预期，港口库存压力或不足为虑。并且，美国制裁等地缘事件也可能影响伊 ...

在跌宕起伏的行情背后，是市场围绕今年新季红枣减产的博弈。 虽然新季减产是共识，但市场对减产幅度存在较大分歧。其中，多头方面认为，新季将大幅减产至约40万吨；但空头方面则认为，新季产量约 为55万吨，仅小幅减产而已。多空的严重分歧，导致红枣期价从8月份起走出了跌宕起伏的行情。 但是近期这一情况最近出现了变化，由于受节气影响，新疆部分地区出现了红枣提前下树的情形，其中和田、且末等地区在10月底已进入集中 采摘期，阿拉尔、阿克苏等地区也零星下树。"虽然主流收购价格（6.50元/公斤至8.00元/公斤）高于去年同期（约4.50元/公斤至5.50元/ 公斤），但由于新枣提前下树供应叠加旧枣的高库存，客商或选择观望或偏向主流低价位采购，从而导致近期价格的承压下跌。" 从目前的价格反应来看，新季大幅减产的预期似乎落空，更大的可能是小幅减产；但由于目前尚未定产，减产幅度无法证伪，后续仍存在一定 的变数。 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 行情走势 01 2025年11月4日，红枣期货大跌5.55%，报收9695元/吨。值得注意的是，红枣看跌期权合约迎来暴涨。红枣2601沽9500期权单日大涨 173.81%，价格从42 ...

行情走势 01 2025年11月3日周一，油籽期价提振带动盘面回暖，菜粕主力合约日间盘收涨逾4%。 产业监测 02 据百川盈孚，11月3日，菜粕价格为2581元/吨，较上一工作日价格上涨1.73%。今日菜粕价格强势上涨，市场看多情绪浓厚。其涨势主要受 到整体蛋白粕类市场强劲氛围的带动，自身需求表现尤为突出，终端采购意愿积极。供应面相对偏紧，有效支撑了价格的向上突破。 后市预测：菜粕产出能力近乎停滞，无法通过新增产能弥补现货缺口，供应端菜籽的紧平衡格局为现货端提供上行动力。预计下一工作日菜粕 市场将保持区间内整理为主，均价围绕在2580-2590元/吨。 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 | | 现货报价 | 涨跌 | 形态 | 蛋白含量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 南通 | 2460 | 40 | 颗粒状 | 38% | | 东莞 | 2600 | 80 | 粉状 | 38% | | 防城港 | 2590 | 80 | 粉状 | 38% | 供应方面：根据 My s teel 统计，10月沿海油厂菜籽压榨量为5.70万吨，较上月减少10.5万吨。10月沿海油厂 ...

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The current market exhibits significant structural differentiation, with clear trends across different sectors and distinct product attributes [2] Group 2: Key Bullish and Bearish Products - Bullish products include crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), which show steady increases in positions, reflecting recognition of energy transition and shipping recovery [3] - Bearish products include rubber (RU), which has seen a notable increase in short positions, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [3] Group 3: Position Changes and Capital Movements - In the energy and chemical sector, positions in crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) are rising, while rubber (RU) shows significant short position increases, suggesting a bearish outlook [4] - In the agricultural sector, palm oil (P) sees rising positions with active bullish capital involvement, while live hogs (LH) have a large position despite a bearish structure, indicating ongoing divergence [4] Group 4: Core Trading Logic and Opportunity Identification - For stock indices, small-cap stocks are favored, with the market state being "Long" for both the CSI 500 (IC) and CSI 1000 (IM) futures, supported by healthy technical indicators [5][6] - Iron ore (I) is marked as "Great-Long-Now," indicating strong bullish signals within the black series [6] - Opportunities include arbitrage strategies between rebar (RB) and hot-rolled coil (HC), or a long position in iron ore [5][6] Group 5: Key Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend strategies favoring IC, IM, I, P, and SC due to strong curve structures and fundamental support [8] - Trend strategies for RU, LH, and M are recommended as bearish due to weak supply-demand dynamics [8] - Arbitrage strategies between palm oil (P) and soybean meal (M) are suggested, capitalizing on the strength of oils over feeds [8] Group 6: Key Products to Monitor - Focus on the performance of small-cap stocks (IC/IM) and the supply dynamics of iron ore (I) [13] - Monitor the crude oil supply-demand balance (SC/LU) and the continuation of the bearish trend in rubber (RU) [13] - Keep an eye on palm oil (P) for ongoing biodiesel demand and the progress of hog destocking (LH) [13]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要 宏观层面出现一定程度的逆风。上周中联储 FOMC会议虽然如期降息25BP，但是鲍威尔在会后的记者招待会上发表鹰派言论，表示对于12 月降息并不确定。这也从一定程度上反映了联储内部对于后续利率路径的明显分歧。由于各项资产此前已经充分定价了12月的降息，鲍威尔 的言论使得包括金铜在内的资产有所承压。 核心观点 01 上周金铜震荡盘整 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金下跌 2.75%，白银 下跌 0.33%；沪金2512合约 下跌 1.72%，沪银2512 合约上涨 0.96%。主要工业金属 价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-0.07%、-0.81%。 鹰派发言施压铜价，但港口拥堵在发酵 0 2 上周中联储 FOMC会议虽然如期降息25BP，但是鲍威尔在会后的记者招待会上发表鹰派言论，表示对于12月降息并不确定。这也从一 定程度上反映了联储内部对于后续利率路径的明显分歧。风险资产此前已经充分定价了12月的降息，鲍威尔的言论使得包括铜在内的资 产有所承压。此外，铜市场挤仓的可能性在上周也有所下降，这使得部分资金流出市场。不过周末坦桑尼亚达累 ...

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with a maximum increase of 16% over 11 trading days starting from October 15, 2025, despite previous oversupply conditions [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate is driven by explosive growth in energy storage systems, with global energy storage cell shipments expected to reach 600 GWh in 2025, a 62.1% year-on-year increase [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate from energy storage batteries is projected to rise from 36.7 million tons in 2025 to 53.4 million tons in 2026, reflecting an upward adjustment of 8.4% and 19.1% respectively [3] Group 2: Battery Demand and Supply Outlook - The demand for power batteries is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with projections of 25.2% and 20.5% year-on-year growth for 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] - The global demand for lithium carbonate is anticipated to shift from oversupply to a tight balance by 2026, with total demand expected to reach 196.3 million tons, a 29.8% increase year-on-year [3] - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to grow at a rate of 20%, indicating a potential tightening of the market [3] Group 3: Cotton Market Insights - In the 2025/26 season, seed cotton purchase prices in Northern Xinjiang are stable at 5.5-6.2 yuan per kilogram, while Southern Xinjiang prices are higher at 6.1-6.5 yuan per kilogram [5] - The total cotton production in China is projected to be between 7.1 million and 7.3 million tons, reflecting an increase compared to previous years [7] - The cotton market is expected to experience slight price declines after mid-November as resources from Xinjiang become available [7] Group 4: Coking Coal Price Trends - Coking coal prices are under pressure due to operational challenges in coal mining, with a significant drop in revenue and profit margins reported [8] - Safety regulations are tightening, leading to production constraints, particularly in the fourth quarter, which is traditionally a high-risk period for coal mining [9] - The inventory levels of coking coal are at historical lows, with a significant reduction compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [11] Group 5: Gold Price Movements - Recent declines in gold prices are attributed to a combination of factors including easing geopolitical tensions, a stronger dollar, and technical corrections following rapid price increases [19][20] - Historical analysis shows that the recent drop in gold prices ranks among the largest since 2000, primarily driven by shifts in market sentiment and profit-taking [20] - The outlook for gold remains cautious, with potential for further declines if macroeconomic conditions do not improve [22]

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 首先， 中国将暂缓10月出台的稀土等物项的出口管制新规，相应的美方暂停9月29日出台的出口管制50% 股权穿透性规则， 这一点上是有些超预期的 。 | | 中美制裁和反制措施一览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 时间 | 美国政策 | 当前状态 | 中国反制政策 | | 2025/3/4 | 征收20%芬太尼关税 | 10%生效,10%取消 | 对部分能源、农产品征收10-15%的反制关税:将美国 实体列入出口管制名单和不可靠实体清单 | | 2025/4/10 | 征收125%对等关税 | 91%取消,24%暂 | 征收125%全面反制关税:将美国实体列入出口管制名 单:加强稀土出口管制;对美医用CT球管等反倾销调 | | | | 缓,10%生效 | 査 | | 2025/4/17 | 对中国船舶加收港口服务费 | 暂缓 | 对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费;反制韩国造船企业5家 | | | | | 美国子公司 | | 2025/9/29 | 发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant lag in copper mine supply compared to smelting and consumption growth is the main driving force for the gradual increase in copper prices from 2023 to 2025 [4][7]. Long-term Logic - The long recovery cycle of copper mines and the inability of high copper prices to quickly stimulate supply release will maintain a strong consumption side, driven by emerging sectors, leading to a tight supply-demand balance expected to last until 2028 [5][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - From 2023 to 2028, the global copper mine supply is entering a bottleneck period, with an average annual increase of 500,000 tons, while the average annual consumption is around 800,000 tons [6]. - Data from January to August 2025 shows that the increase in copper mine supply lags behind the growth rates of smelting and consumption, which is a key driver for the rise in copper prices during 2023-2025 [7]. - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, the second-largest globally, is expected to reduce production by 200,000 tons in Q4 2025 and 270,000 tons for the entire year of 2026 due to a landslide incident, significantly impacting the global copper market [7]. Price Outlook - The core bottom price range for copper has been raised from 75,000-78,000 to 83,000-84,000 in Q4 2025, with continued tightness in the mining sector expected to lead to raw material shortages and profitability issues for smelting in 2026 [8]. - The gradual increase in copper prices will add extra cash flow pressure on downstream procurement [8]. Production and Consumption Data - Global copper concentrate production reached 15.35 million tons, an increase of 470,000 tons year-on-year [9]. - Global copper smelting production was 19.07 million tons, up by 710,000 tons year-on-year [9]. - Global copper consumption amounted to 18.83 million tons, an increase of 1.05 million tons year-on-year [9].