文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风有色研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 随着近期铜价在贵金属的影响下大幅波动，我们在上周铜周报中指出：从中期看，基本面最硬的资产一定会率先企稳， 所以黄金与铜依然是价格看涨的首选品种。而随着春节假期的临近，市场开始越来越关注国内社库变动的可能性，进而 对价格形成的相关压制或支持。那么，2026年的春节到底会累库多少？今年的物流情况和往年有什么不同？下游消费 又会在什么时候开始回归？回归后是否会接受10万以上的高价，使得累库后的铜库存进行很好的去库呢？进一步说，春 节后的库存变动节奏，会对铜价产生什么实际影响呢？春节后的价格低谷到底会在什么时候出现呢？这就是我们本篇文 章需要讨论的问题。（本篇文章内所提t均指春节前最后交易日，t+1为春节后首周，以此类推） 2026春节物流情况的特殊性 01 从部分第三方提供的国内物流调研情况来看，今年春节前后国内部分地区出现物流运营紧张的情况。不过，我们亲自与 市场中物流相关涉及人员了解，其中细节仍不足为外人道。 从有色尤其是诸如铜等板类金属的运输，一般情况下，除去长江水路及炼厂的火车发运，主流的陆路运输仍以大型货车 为主力。不同的 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 市场总在讲述不同的故事 。 有些故事关乎增长，有些故事关乎恐惧。狂欢戛然而止，困惑与恐慌取而代之。这一次，故事的主角是黄金和白银。金价创下近四十年来最大的 单日跌幅，白银则一度将年内惊人的涨幅全部归还。但这真的仅仅关于黄金和白银吗？ 或许，我们更应该将它视为一堂公开课：当一种资产的价格，主要由一个激动人心却难以证伪的宏大叙事所驱动时，它的根基究竟是什么？当所 有人都拥挤在同一条船上，任何一点风向的改变，又会引发怎样的连锁反应？ 本文无意预测金银市场的下一站。我们更想借这次剧烈的波动，与你一同审视那些在狂热中容易被忽略的本质：资产的内在基因有何不同？推动 价格的力量来自哪里？以及最重要的——作为投资者，当市场的故事突然换档，我们该如何自处，才能避免成为纯粹的情绪俘虏？ 剥开具体数字的表象，我们将会走过三个阶段：看清驱动力的转换，理解不同资产的核心逻辑，最终回归到个人决策的纪律与静气。让我们开 始。 导火索背后：一次迟到的压力测试 01 这次暴跌，表面上看是因为美联储新主席的提名消息。但实际上，这是一次迟到的压力测试。 要理解这点，得回到推动之前 ...

文 | 聂波 来源 | NB的农产品 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 往年USDA 2月报告会对南美大豆产量调整，尤其是最近阿根廷天气炒作，巴西大豆发运缓慢，CBOT美大豆从 底部反弹，那么本次报告中美国和南美大豆平衡表将有哪些变化？阿根廷干旱问题是否对国内豆粕市场产生较 大影响？ 短期南美炒作天气，长期南美丰产 01 本次美国农业部（USDA）2月供需报告将于当地2月10日下午12点公布，通常2月报告不会对美豆供应方面进 行调整，25/26年度美豆产量在今年的2-9月的供需报告中不再有变化，进口方面即使调整也将会很小，本次报 告的修正将集中在需求端的压榨和出口。 美国12月大豆压榨量预估为2.304亿蒲式耳，将比2024年11月的2.177亿蒲式耳增加5.9%，较11月份的2.205 亿蒲式耳增加4.5%，压榨量处于历史次新高的水平。由于生产生物燃料所需的豆油需求不断增加，美国大豆压 榨产能扩大，推动大豆压榨率飙升至历史高位。9-12月累计压榨8.924亿蒲式耳，同比增加7.29%，高于1月报 告中年度压榨目标增速5.11%，但是增速略低于9-11月的7.99%。在1月报告中，25/26年度美豆压榨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in lithium carbonate futures is driven by a combination of regulatory policies, macroeconomic sentiment, and seasonal trading behaviors, rather than a fundamental shift in the market [4][5]. Market Analysis - The primary driver of the recent downturn is regulatory intervention aimed at cooling speculative trading, including increased fees and margin requirements, which has led to a rapid exit of speculative funds [4]. - Macroeconomic sentiment has also played a role, with declines in prices of major assets like precious metals and crude oil contributing to a general decrease in market risk appetite, further pressuring lithium carbonate prices [4]. - Seasonal factors are evident as investors tend to reduce positions and secure funds ahead of the Chinese New Year, amplifying selling pressure in the market [4]. - Recent data from Chile indicating a significant increase in lithium salt exports has raised concerns about short-term supply pressures, although this is viewed as a temporary spike rather than a long-term trend [4]. Supply and Demand Overview - Current supply dynamics show a slight contraction due to maintenance and seasonal factors, while demand remains resilient supported by battery exports and energy storage needs [5]. - As of January 2026, lithium carbonate production was reported at 97,900 tons, with battery-grade accounting for 71,440 tons, reflecting a minor month-on-month decline [8]. - The inventory of lithium carbonate has continued to decrease, with total inventory at 107,482 tons as of January 29, 2026, indicating ongoing demand despite price fluctuations [10]. Price Trends - On February 5, 2026, lithium carbonate futures closed at 132,780 yuan/ton, marking a 10.68% drop, with spot prices for high-quality lithium carbonate ranging from 146,200 to 149,500 yuan/ton [2][7]. - The market is currently experiencing a technical adjustment influenced by regulatory measures and seasonal trading patterns, with key support levels needing to be monitored for future price stability [5][13]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent price corrections are more reflective of market sentiment and seasonal factors rather than a fundamental weakening of supply-demand dynamics [13]. - The expectation of supply tightening due to maintenance and seasonal shutdowns, alongside resilient demand from the battery sector, suggests that the underlying market fundamentals remain intact [13][15].

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 紫金天风 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 从过去5年所有品种的平均涨跌概率看，春节前后两周商品价格涨跌存在较高的变盘概率。如2025年节前下跌的板块/品种——金属能 化，在25年春节后2周出现上涨；而黑色板块在2025年春节前出现上涨，节后出现一定幅度的下跌。同时春节期间大部分商品多处于累 库周期，建议做好库存管理和品种套保。 临近假期，交易所和期货公司将有提保动作，请各位投资者合理持仓过节，祝大家新年投资大吉大利！ 附历年春节前后两周大宗商品价格涨跌分布图、近两个月库存预期图，供大家参考。 | | 节前 | | | | | 节后 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2020 | 2021 2022 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 贵金属 | 2020 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | | -1.20% | -0.90% -1.00% 3.00% | 0.90% | 1.90% | 黄 ...

以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ，作者农产品团队 国投期货研究院 . 国投期货有限公司是中国首批成立的期货公司之一，现为国投证券全资子公司，实际控制人为国有重要骨干企业国投 集团。国投期货研究院公众号由专业团队负责运营，聚焦大宗商品及金融衍生品期货期权，推送市场分析热点点评 等。 文 | 国投期货 来源 | 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2026年2月3日，中央一号文件发布，本次中央一号文件主题为《中共中央 国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》。 本次中央一号文件中提到： 1、"稳定发展粮油生产。粮食产量稳定在1.4万亿斤左右。坚持产量产能、生产生态、增产增收一起抓，加 力实施新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动，促进良田良种良机良法集成增效，推进粮油作物大面积提单产。 因地制宜优化农业生产结构和区域布局，推动粮食品种培优和品质提升，实施粮食流通提质增效项目，促 进适销对路、优质优价。巩固提升大豆产能，做好产销衔接。拓展油菜、花生、油茶等生产空间，扩大油 料多元化供给。推动棉花、糖料、天然橡胶等产业平稳发展。深入推进粮食节约和反食品浪费行动。" 2、"强化生猪产能综合调控 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 行情走势 01 2月4日 ， 焦煤期货主力合约震荡走强，盘中一度涨超5%，截止收盘，焦煤主力合约收涨3.60%，收报1209元/吨。 消息面上，据多家行业媒体报道， 印尼矿业官员周二表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼上月 向主要矿商下达的产量配额比2025年水平降低40%至70%，作为该国提振煤价计划的一部分。 针对印尼RKAB煤炭生产额度审批的最新情况调研，近期印尼煤炭RKAB（印度尼西亚政府对矿产和煤炭开采业务活动实施的工作计划与 预算报告制度，由能源与矿产资源部（ESDM）负责管理，矿业公司必须编制并提交该文件以获得生产批准，从2026年开始审批周期由3 年恢复至1年）审批引发讨论，由于煤矿提交的生产计划与政府批示的结果差距较大，引发市场对印尼煤炭供给减量的担忧。 据首次批示结果来看：其中7家煤矿审批额度与提交额度一致，约2.22亿吨，31家煤矿审批额度减量，提交计划总量为2.55亿吨，实际审 批1.19亿吨，下降53.3%，另4家正在审批中；以上已审批煤炭生产额度为3.41亿吨。部分矿商为此暂停煤炭出 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the typical "slow bull—acceleration—sharp pullback" structure of gold and silver prices from Q4 2025 to January 30, 2026, indicating a market correction rather than the end of a bull market [4][11][29] - The sharp pullback was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting a deeper risk release after continuous price increases [13][29] - The article anticipates a "three-factor resonance" driving gold prices to oscillate upward in the first half of 2026, with a focus returning to fundamentally strong commodities once prices stabilize [5][16] Group 2 - Silver prices are expected to remain high, with demand from AI-driven electronics and soldering materials offsetting declines in the photovoltaic sector, leading to a recovery in total demand [6][22] - The article highlights a structural recovery in investment demand for silver, which is sensitive to price changes, potentially driving upward trends [6][25] - The supply and demand dynamics for platinum and palladium are expected to diverge significantly in 2026, with platinum likely outperforming palladium due to supply risks concentrated in South Africa [26][27] Group 3 - The current high volatility in precious metals is characterized by a high leverage structure and market sentiment, with gold determining the market direction while silver and platinum group metals amplify elasticity [29][30] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring central bank gold purchases, ETF allocations, and geopolitical risks as long-term support for precious metals remains intact [29][30] - The article concludes that the current price correction is a crucial period for recalibrating expectations and optimizing investment structures rather than signaling the end of the upward trend in precious metals [32]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in commodity prices is primarily driven by emotional panic rather than a collapse in the fundamental supply and demand dynamics of the commodities themselves [2][6]. Group 1: Causes of the Decline - The core reason for the market crash is the collapse of sentiment in precious metals, which led to a sell-off across various sectors, including non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Two key news events acted as "triggers" for the market panic: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, raising concerns about the end of the "cheap money era," and the easing of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which reduced the "geopolitical risk premium" in oil prices [3][4]. - The market was already saturated with speculative positions and high leverage, which exacerbated the sell-off when negative news emerged, leading to forced liquidations and a vicious cycle of price declines [5][6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Despite the sharp declines, the fundamental support for copper and aluminum remains intact. Issues such as declining ore grades and limited new supply for copper persist, while demand from sectors like home appliances and electric vehicles is expected to rise [8][10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The oil and chemical sectors experienced significant declines due to the removal of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns over weak global oil demand. However, coal and salt chemicals showed resilience as their costs are more tied to domestic coal prices [11][12]. - **Black Metals**: The black metal sector is facing pressure from both weak seasonal demand and the negative sentiment from precious metals. However, the rate of inventory accumulation is not alarming, providing some buffer against drastic price drops [13]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural commodities are less affected by the recent market turmoil, as their prices are primarily driven by domestic supply and demand factors, making them more resilient to macroeconomic fluctuations [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to distinguish between emotional market reactions and the intrinsic value of commodities. The current market turmoil is seen as a temporary emotional response rather than a fundamental shift in value [15][20]. - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wait-and-see approach, avoiding aggressive positions until market volatility decreases and signs of stabilization appear [16][19]. - Preparation for future opportunities is essential, including reassessing the supply-demand dynamics of favored commodities and planning entry strategies [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the fluctuating dynamics of the gold market, highlighting the interplay between demand, supply, and geopolitical factors that influence gold prices and investment strategies [5][25]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has regained attention as it experiences a technical correction after reaching a peak, influenced by profit-taking and concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy direction following the nomination of a hawkish chairman [5]. - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, has not surpassed the 1200 tons high from 2020, indicating insufficient allocation by residents and institutions compared to central bank purchases, which may allow for future capital inflows [5]. - Global gold demand in 2025 surpassed 5000 tons for the first time, with investment demand growing significantly, driven by a 84% year-on-year increase in gold investment demand [8][9]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Trends - In 2025, global gold ETF holdings increased by 801 tons, marking the second-highest annual increase on record, with North America leading in demand [9]. - The demand for gold bars and coins reached a 12-year high at 1374.1 tons, with notable increases in India and China, reflecting strong retail investor interest [12]. - Central banks purchased 863 tons of gold in 2025, maintaining a high level of demand despite a slight slowdown compared to previous years, indicating a long-term trend of diversification away from the U.S. dollar [13][15]. Group 3: Price and Consumption Trends - Gold jewelry demand fell to a five-year low of 1542.3 tons in 2025, down 18% year-on-year, as high prices suppressed consumer purchasing power [17]. - Despite the decline in volume, the total value of gold jewelry consumption rose by 18% to a record $172 billion due to rising gold prices [17]. - The demand for technology-related gold remained stable at 322.8 tons, supported by growth in AI applications, despite fluctuations in the consumer electronics sector [18]. Group 4: Supply Side Analysis - Global gold supply increased by 1% in 2025, reaching a record high of 5002 tons, driven by slight increases in mine production and recycled gold supply [19]. - The increase in mine production was primarily from new mines in Canada and Australia, while some regions faced production issues [19]. - The recovery of gold supply only grew by 3% to 1404 tons, reflecting a reluctance among holders to sell due to high prices and expectations of further price increases [19]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Geopolitical tensions and expectations of a shift in global monetary policy are likely to continue influencing gold prices, with central bank demand expected to remain high [25]. - The article suggests that while gold prices may remain elevated, jewelry demand will likely continue to face pressure, and significant increases in recycled gold supply are unlikely [25]. - The anticipated economic conditions, including potential U.S. recession and geopolitical developments, may pose risks to gold prices in the latter half of 2026 [25].