积水成渊，聚沙成塔，做积累的事。 2025年对冲研投公众号累计发布560篇文章， 我们从 中精选出69篇精华文章，希望在您需要的时候，可以帮助到您。 未来每年，我们都会将相关优秀文章汇总整理于此，精彩待续...... 01 宏观经济研究篇 #2025年精选 全球市场颤抖：美联储或将迎来"鹰派"新掌门——凯文·沃什 或许是当前最权威的宏观分析：卡尼达沃斯演讲（文末附全文） 从抢油到夺岛：解析特朗普的"唐罗主义" 如果鲍威尔选择留下来继续硬刚呢？ 大宗商品资源争夺战：东西半球划洋而治？ 5000字深度报告 | "反内卷"与"供给侧"改革底层逻辑是康波大周期！ 供给侧改革2.0来了吗？ 让美元的归美元，美债的归美债 以伊战争中让世界惶恐的霍尔木兹海峡 世界新秩序 关于中国经济的重大转折 对等关税的"表"与"里" Trump就职典礼：布局之招 抓捕马杜罗，特朗普意欲何为？ "十五五"的新提法 关税战风云再起，怎么看？ 中美周期共振or背离？ 02 商品期货研究篇 #2025年精选 当商品交易变成"故事会"：谁在主导价格？ 在贪婪与恐惧中轮回：金银暴跌背后，如何避免成为市场叙事切换时的代价？ 关于农产品对商品牛市的追赶 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of celebrating the New Year as a time for reflection and setting new goals for the upcoming year [2][3] - It highlights the cultural significance of the New Year celebrations, showcasing various traditions and practices that bring communities together [2] - The message conveys optimism and hope for success in the new year, encouraging individuals and businesses to strive for excellence [3]

| | | - | 加拿大 | 加拿大农业及农业食品部(AAFC) 月度报告 | 农产品 | ★★★★ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | - | 英国 | WBMS全球金属供需报告 | 有色金属 | ★★★★ | | 2026年 2月19日 | 星期四 | 3: 00 | 美国 | 美联储公布1月FOMC会议纪要 | 宏观 | ★★★★ | | | | 5: 30 | 美国 | API原油库存周报 | 油气 | ★★★★ | | | | 16: 00 | 新加坡 | ESG新加坡周度燃料油库存 | 油气 | ★★★ | | | | 17: 00 | 欧元区 | 欧元区12月季调后经常帐 | 宏观 | ★★★ | | | | 18: 00 | 欧元区 | 欧元区12月建筑业产出 | 宏观 | ★★★ | | | | 21: 30 | 美国 | 美国12月贸易帐 | 宏观 | ★★★★ | | | | 21: 30 | 美国 | 美国上周初请失业金人数 | 宏观 | ★★★★ | | | | 21: 30 | 美国 | USDA出口销售报告 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are currently the focus of market trading, but increased volatility has made trading more challenging. The article aims to analyze the significant fluctuations in precious metals and the potential logical developments that may follow [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in prices began in early December, driven by factors such as the physical currency logic, the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, and heightened market expectations leading to a "short squeeze" logic [4]. - The decline in prices started on January 29, primarily triggered by the "Walsh trade," with the equity market's downturn exacerbating liquidity feedback, leading to a chain reaction of sell-offs across various asset classes [4][21]. - The current precious metals market is in a period of adjustment following significant volatility, with January's surge reflecting a prelude to the collapse of the US dollar's credit, while February's drop serves as a stress test for tightening liquidity expectations [5][43]. Group 2: Key Drivers of Price Movements - The price surge from December to January was fundamentally linked to the deterioration of US dollar credit, physical currency dynamics, and expectations of liquidity easing. The US dollar index fell from 100 to a low of 95.6 during this period [6]. - The logic of physical currency was driven by the decline in sovereign credit, with rising global bond yields due to inflation and default risks prompting a shift of funds into physical precious metals [7]. - The US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion by the end of 2025, with a fiscal deficit rate expanding to 5.85%, indicating significant risks in the fiscal situation and leading to a depreciation of dollar credit [10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Following the volatility in early February, the precious metals market has shifted from speculative frenzy to a more rational state, with implied volatility significantly decreasing from historical highs [28]. - Non-commercial long positions have been significantly reduced, indicating a cleansing of speculative leverage that had accumulated above $100, leading to a healthier market structure [29]. - Silver prices found strong support at the 60-day moving average, indicating robust buying interest from industrial capital, while the US dollar index faced resistance at the 98 level, confirming its role as a mid-term top [32]. Group 4: Future Core Drivers - The future direction of the precious metals market will depend on whether the core logic of physical currency and dollar credit remains unchanged, with three main drivers to watch: the interplay between physical currency and dollar credit, liquidity logic and policy support, and the potential for a silver squeeze [33]. - Observing the 10-year US Treasury yield against the dollar index will be crucial, as a divergence could signal a re-evaluation of dollar credit risk [34]. - The liquidity logic is critical, with the reserve ratio of the Federal Reserve falling to around 11%, indicating potential liquidity risks that could prompt a shift in policy from tightening to easing [39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Indonesia's nickel mining policy significantly impacts global nickel prices, with recent announcements leading to a notable increase in nickel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) [1][3][23] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a nickel mining production target of 260 to 270 million tons for 2026, with major mines like Weda Bay Nickel receiving a reduced approval rate of only 30% [1][3][10] - The tightening of supply due to policy changes has led to a significant price increase, with the SHFE nickel futures contract reaching a high of 140,230 and closing at 139,360, marking a daily increase of 4.51% [1][3][23] Group 2 - The article discusses the synergistic support for nickel prices from both endogenous and exogenous factors, suggesting that the current market conditions do not warrant a bearish outlook on nickel prices [2][11] - Exogenous factors include the strengthening of nickel's financial attributes and its strategic metal positioning, while endogenous factors highlight structural shortages in the spot market and rising industry costs that limit price declines [2][11] - The overall expectation is that the main price range for SHFE nickel will stabilize between 135,000 and 140,000, with potential catalysts from future policy adjustments [2][23] Group 3 - Historical analysis indicates that Indonesia's nickel mining policies have been inconsistent, often leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations and prices [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming policy revisions and quota distributions, particularly in February and March, as well as the mid-year review of the RKAB [24] - The supply-demand balance for nickel is projected to face challenges, with potential shortfalls if the government implements strict policies too quickly [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in lithium carbonate prices is driven by multiple factors, including supply agreements, policy support for energy storage, market sentiment, and seasonal demand expectations [3][4][5][6]. Supply Side Analysis - PLS and Tianyi Lithium Industry signed a two-year agreement for lithium spodumene concentrate with a minimum price of $1,000/ton, providing price stability and boosting market confidence in lithium prices [3]. - As of February 5, lithium carbonate production decreased to 21,800 tons, a 2.68% decline from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.81% [7]. - The supply is expected to contract further in February due to holiday-related production halts and maintenance, with CIF prices for 6.0% spodumene dropping to $2,000/ton, a decrease of $350/ton [8]. Demand Side Analysis - The domestic energy storage system bidding scale increased by 13.7% month-on-month in January, indicating strong demand growth supported by new policies [4]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is showing a divergence, with lithium iron phosphate maintaining a high capacity utilization rate of 73%, while ternary materials are at 62% due to declining sales from electric vehicle manufacturers [11]. - In January, China's automotive production and sales remained stable, with new energy vehicle sales showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [11]. Market Sentiment and Trading Dynamics - There was a net inflow of 1.1 billion yuan into lithium carbonate contracts, with bullish sentiment reflected in rising prices and increased trading volumes [5]. - The market is experiencing a seasonal rhythm, with expectations of demand recovery post-holiday, driven by factors such as electric vehicle exports and energy storage policy support [6]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased to 104,000 tons, a 0.73% decline, indicating a continued destocking trend across various market segments [14]. Summary of Market Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics indicate a strong upward trend in lithium carbonate prices, supported by supply constraints and robust demand from the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [15][17]. - The market is advised to monitor post-holiday demand recovery and the pace of overseas mining resumption, as these factors will significantly influence future price movements [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio warns that the United States is in the "fifth stage" of the empire cycle, on the brink of order collapse and conflict [2][5][25] Group 1: Current Economic and Political Landscape - The U.S. is experiencing extreme polarization and debt imbalance, characterized by a significant wealth gap and political extremism [3][6] - Dalio cites that approximately 25% of the population is willing to engage in violence for their political faction, indicating severe societal risks [6] - The current debt and political turmoil lead to a situation where the central bank's money printing to address deficits will result in currency devaluation [3][7] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Dalio emphasizes that gold is the only "non-debt" asset and recommends investors allocate 5%-15% of their portfolios to gold [3][10][43] - He distinguishes between "wealth" and "money," suggesting that liquidity is crucial during crises, and advocates for asset diversification to mitigate potential risks [4][11] Group 3: Societal Recommendations - Dalio advises individuals to maintain financial discipline, save more than they spend, and consider relocating to stable regions to avoid potential social unrest [11][12] - He notes a trend of capital and population moving from high-tax, high-conflict areas to more stable and vibrant locations [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of breaking away from traditional narratives and focusing on market signals and technical indicators to navigate volatile market conditions, particularly in the context of commodity trading [4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have created a complex environment characterized by simultaneous negotiation and confrontation, leading to heightened risks in the short term [9][10]. - The global competition for critical minerals has intensified, driven by energy transition needs, supply chain security concerns, and geopolitical tensions, making these resources crucial for national security and economic development [11][12]. Group 2: Commodity Trends - Different commodity sectors are experiencing divergent trends due to varying underlying drivers, with precious metals and certain industrial metals being influenced by global risk sentiment and structural demand, while sectors like black metals and traditional chemicals reflect domestic economic weaknesses [13]. - The article suggests that the market is no longer unified in its bullish or bearish narratives, as each commodity is priced based on its unique supply-demand dynamics, with macro factors serving as a backdrop [13]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For investment strategies, the focus should be on right-side trading in resource-oriented metals and left-side positioning in commodities that are currently in a downtrend but are sensitive to macroeconomic policies, particularly in sectors like real estate and chemicals [14]. - Specific insights into the pig market indicate a potential price ceiling due to a large supply base, despite rising prices for piglets, suggesting caution in future price expectations [16]. - The article highlights that the recent performance of caustic soda is closely tied to liquid chlorine prices, which have not declined as expected, indicating ongoing supply pressures that may affect pricing dynamics [19][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent significant drop in lithium carbonate prices, which fell over 10% in a single day, driven by weak market sentiment, regulatory expectations, and a weak fundamental backdrop [2][4]. - Market sentiment has turned negative across the commodity sector, particularly affecting non-ferrous and precious metals, with speculative funds opting to cash out, exacerbating price declines [3][4]. - Regulatory expectations have intensified, with signals from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and futures exchanges indicating stricter measures to curb irrational competition and excessive speculation, leading to a significant reduction in futures positions [3][4]. Group 2 - In the short term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, fragile market sentiment, and stringent regulatory oversight, potentially leading to further testing of lower price points [5][6]. - However, medium to long-term support for prices remains intact, with supply constraints expected due to seasonal maintenance in lithium salt plants and anticipated demand recovery post-holiday, particularly in the battery sector [6][7]. - The market may require stabilization in macro sentiment and a strong recovery in demand post-holiday to regain strength, with key indicators being the production recovery of downstream battery manufacturers and potential export surges [8][9]. Group 3 - The article discusses the contrasting dynamics between the futures and spot markets, noting that while futures have seen speculative excitement, the spot market remains subdued due to high inventory levels and weak demand from downstream sectors [12][13]. - The analysis indicates that the current market conditions are influenced by deeper factors, including cost pressures and industry competition, which are complicating price transmission across the supply chain [14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the distinct behaviors of precious and industrial metals, with industrial metals often acting as economic barometers while precious metals respond to broader economic uncertainties [15][17]. Group 4 - The article outlines the recent volatility in the silver market, attributing the dramatic price movements to high leverage and speculative trading, which can lead to rapid market corrections [66][67]. - It highlights the historical context of silver's price fluctuations, drawing parallels with past market events that resulted in significant downturns due to similar speculative behaviors and market conditions [71][72]. - The article concludes with a cautionary note on the risks associated with leveraged trading, particularly in volatile markets, emphasizing the need for careful risk management [75][76].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing extreme volatility, indicating a potential structural shift in its driving logic and volatility paradigm [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In January 2026, precious metals surged nearly 50%, with silver reaching historical highs, igniting market enthusiasm [1]. - However, a dramatic drop occurred at the end of January, with Comex silver prices plummeting over 30%, causing significant turmoil in domestic markets [1]. - Traditional price ratios like gold-silver, gold-copper, and gold-oil have shown erratic behavior, suggesting a breakdown in their historical signaling capabilities [1][3]. Group 2: Traditional Analysis Framework Failure - The gold-copper ratio, typically indicating economic health, has risen to historical highs without corresponding signs of economic recession, signaling potential underlying issues [3]. - The gold-silver ratio is converging to a near-decade low, which traditionally suggests increased risk appetite, but current conditions indicate a more complex narrative [3]. - The gold-oil ratio is at extreme levels, reflecting divergent supply-demand stories for these commodities, further complicating traditional analysis [4]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Market Drivers - The traditional pricing logic based on total demand and monetary cycles is being replaced by new structural forces [5]. - Gold is transitioning from a "rate indicator" to a "credit anchor," influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases and concerns over dollar credit [6][7]. - Silver's demand is bolstered by the global expansion of the photovoltaic industry, while copper is driven by new energy and technology sectors [8][9]. Group 4: Silver as a Market Indicator - Silver has emerged as a key player in the commodity market, reflecting both industrial demand and speculative trading [10]. - The "virtual-to-physical ratio" for silver has reached historical lows, indicating extreme speculation and potential "short squeeze" risks [10]. - Silver's dual nature makes it a sensitive barometer for market liquidity and risk sentiment, amplifying both bullish and bearish trends [11][12]. Group 5: Market Narratives and Trading Mechanisms - The market is increasingly driven by compelling narratives that spread rapidly through modern communication channels, influencing investor behavior [13][14]. - Programmatic trading and leverage have become significant amplifiers of market movements, leading to rapid price changes in response to emerging stories [15][16]. - New capital from other sectors, such as cryptocurrencies, is entering the commodity market, further intensifying volatility [17]. Group 6: Future Outlook - High volatility is expected to persist in the commodity market, necessitating a shift in observation frameworks and expectations [18]. - Monitoring silver's performance will be crucial for gauging overall market sentiment and risk appetite [18]. - A potential signal for a healthy market rally could be a simultaneous decline in the gold-silver and gold-oil ratios, indicating a return to economic growth narratives [19].