广发期货研究 . 推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者研究所 文 | 周敏波 来源 | 广发期货研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 11月11-14日走访了山西太原、介休等地了解山西煤焦市场情况。 2025年以来，煤焦市场走出深"V"的先抑后扬行情，上半年由于煤矿超产严重，供需平衡偏宽松，但随 着价格下跌、煤矿亏损减产以及"反内卷"政策驱动，下半年走出触底反弹行情，供需向平衡偏紧转变。 临近年底，我们赴山西调研部分具有代表性煤焦企业，了解现货市场实际情况，发现后市机会。 四季度山西煤焦市场呈现"供需偏紧、供给受限、需求良好"的核心特征，竞拍价格持续上涨，大多煤种 已经达到年内最高水平。经历上半年大幅去库后，产业各环节库存处于相对低位，煤矿大多预售订单为 主 ， 库 存 压 力 不 大 ， 供 给 受 到 安 监 、 环 保 、 产 量 核 查 等 因 素 影 响 受 限 ； 下 游 补 库 需 旺 盛 ， 由 于 预 期 扭 转，下半年以来，贸易商补库积极，实体企业也加大采购，认为年底之前煤价难跌。但由于焦煤2601合 约市场参与者套保和交割量较大，可能压制期货盘面 ...

好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险， 也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻 辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 CFC商品策略研究 . 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 前沿洞察： 全球棕榈油市场正在寻找新平衡，其特征是高波动、高溢价与政策主导。供应增长黄金时代落幕，需 求侧因生物柴油"虹吸效应"而重构，政策法规成为比传统供需更重要的价格驱动因素。短期关注库存与季节性周 期：马来西亚库存变化（当前246.4万吨）和2026Q1低产期是反弹触发关键。笔者感受印尼的棕榈油战略更值得 关注，即资源民族主义驱动下的Palm全球定价权博弈。在全球能源转型与地缘政治重构的背景下，印尼正将棕榈 油提升至国家战略资源的高度，将其作为实现"资源民族主义"的核心抓手。 一、市场现实：基本面根本性转变，高增长周期终结 全球棕榈油市场正经历数十年来最深刻的变革。2025年底的全球棕榈油大会（POC）指出，市场已告 ...

行情走势 01 11月19日（周三），工业硅主力合约盘中一度涨超6.%，价格最高上涨至9545元/吨，创下近期新高。截止下午收盘，工业硅主力合约收涨 4.68%，报9390元/吨。 工业硅今日为何大涨？ 据市场消息，有机硅单体厂实控人会议昨日在上海如期召开，此次会议由行业权威机构中国氟硅有机材料工业协会主办，国内有机硅龙头企业 系数参加。据市场信息，参会企业总产能占全行业产能的80%以上，会议核心议题聚焦于联合减排与行业挺价事宜，标志着有机硅行业在应 对市场困境方面迈出关键一步。 会议确定的减排方案计划自12月1日起正式执行，具体执行期限目前尚未明确。根据第三方测算，若12月份满月执行该减产计划，预计当月 DMC（二甲基环硅氧烷）产量约为21.04万吨，较减产前减少约0.8万吨。这一减产幅度对上游工业硅的消费量影响约在0.44万吨，将在一 定程度上缓解上游原材料的供应压力。 价格方面，会议明确有机硅DMC指导价格为13000-13200元/吨，较联合挺价前（即11月12日）累计上涨约1700-2000元/吨。其他下游 产 品 价 格 同 步 跟 涨 ， 其 中 107 胶 价 格 在 13700-14000 ...

行情走势 01 11月18日（周二）下午收盘，焦煤弱势下跌，焦煤主力合约JM2601下跌3.86%至1159.0，较阶段性前高1318.0跌幅达到12.06%。 焦煤今日为何大跌？主要有以下原因： 1）现货竞拍转弱，价格普跌范围扩大 焦 煤 竞 拍 市 场 由 涨 转 跌 ， 且 跌 势 蔓 延 。 18 日 吕 梁 低 硫 主 焦 煤 （ A11 、 S0.6 ） 流 拍 ， 另 一 低 硫 主 焦 （ A11 、 S1 ） 出 厂 价 跌 50 元 至 1630 元 / 吨；高硫瘦煤成交价较上期跌92元。市场担忧价格见顶情绪加剧。 2）巨量交割压力压制，多头接货意愿不足 2601合约面临超20万吨的交割压力，且交割资源以蒙煤为主。因交割煤种与主流现货存在质量差异，导致盘面多头承接力不足，期货价格深 度贴水于仓单成本。 3）下游亏损减产，负反馈风险显现 钢价下跌致钢厂亏损，铁水产量自10月高点240.81万吨/日降至11月13日的236.88万吨/日。同期焦炭产量亦下滑3.45万吨/日。下游利润 恶化，难以承受原料高价，需求下滑倒逼焦煤降价的风险加剧。 4）基差急速走阔触发空单止盈，加剧盘面抛压 期货跌幅远 ...

行情走势 01 产业监测 02 核心数据监测 11月17日，国内工业级碳酸锂（99.0%为主）市场价格集中在8.6-8.8万元/吨，市场均价为8.7万元/吨，较上个工作日价格上涨2.35%；国 内电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）市场价格集中在8.8-9.1万元/吨，市场均价为8.95万元/吨，较上个工作日价格上涨2.87%。 11月17日（周一），碳酸锂期货主力合约触及涨停，涨幅9%，报95200元/吨，刷新一年余新高。自今年6月以来，碳酸锂连续主力合约区间 涨幅已超56%。 目前碳酸锂市场正迎来一轮由需求驱动的新涨势。与今年第三季度那波涨势不同的是，以往碳酸锂价格大涨多受供给端扰动影响，而这一轮则 与需求端爆发密切相关。 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 SMM电池级碳酸锂指数： 85,010元/吨，环比上涨538元/吨。 电池级碳酸锂市场价： 8.33 - 8.70万元/吨，均价8.515万元/吨，环比上涨800元/吨。 工业级碳酸锂市场价： 8.23 - 8.33万元/吨，均价8.28万元/吨，环比上涨800元/吨。 | | 11月14日 | 11月13日 | 11月12日 | 11月11日 | 11月 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced volatility last week with various narratives reversing, lacking a clear main theme. Initially, the probability of the U.S. government reopening increased, leading to a temporary "risk on" sentiment, but subsequent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials raised doubts about the likelihood of a rate cut in December, causing risk assets to decline [2][5]. - Precious metals saw significant rebounds following the U.S. Congress's approval of a temporary funding bill, which alleviated previous liquidity concerns. However, cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials led to a rapid decline in rate cut expectations, contributing to a pullback in gold and silver prices [7][24]. - COMEX copper prices maintained a fluctuating pattern, lacking strong driving forces. Despite a temporary rise to nearly 88,000 yuan per ton, prices faced downward pressure, although buying interest emerged after the decline, resulting in a range-bound trading pattern [8][10]. Group 2 - The copper concentrate TC weekly index increased by $0.35 per dry ton to -$41.75, indicating a slight recovery in the spot market activity, with traders actively selling at lower price levels [14]. - Domestic refined copper consumption remains resilient, making it difficult to see a trend of significant inventory accumulation. Downstream buying interest is expected to provide support for copper prices during periods of decline [10][54]. - The COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 350,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 4.45 million ounces, indicating a tightening supply in the precious metals market [37].

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 根据《中国期货市场品种属性研究报告（2025-11-17）》，以下是整理出的核心关键内容摘要，包括关键多空品种、量仓变化、交易机会、风险提示与 核心逻辑： 1. 股指期货板块 关键多空品种 ： 相关性分析显示，IH、IF、IC、IM之间高度正相关（相关系数0.68-0.94），板块内联动性强。 交易机会 ： 可关注IC和IM的多头配置，因曲线结构强劲且年化滚动收益较高（IC为7.35%，IM为10.69%）。IF和IH作为辅助多头，适合在盘整中逢低布 局。 风险提示 ： 市场处于盘整状态，若宏观经济数据或政策面出现利空，可能引发回调。需警惕外围市场波动和资金流动变化。 核心逻辑 ： 中证500期货（IC）和中证1000期货（IM）呈现"Good Cur ve Long"信号，表明曲线结构支持多头； 沪深300期货（IF）为"Cur ve Long"，上证50期货（IH）为"Maybe Cur ve Long"，整体偏向多头。 市场状态均为"Consol idation"（盘整），显示当前处于整理阶段。 量仓变化 ： ...

Group 1: Glass Market Analysis - The glass market has experienced several bullish trends over the past five years, with notable surges in April 2020, January 2022, November 2022, June 2023, April 2024, September 2024, and June 2025 [2] - Recent market dynamics indicate a significant increase in short positions, suggesting a challenging environment for a rapid reversal in market trends [7] - Current market conditions reflect a strong inventory pressure, leading to increased short positions in the futures market, which complicates the outlook for price recovery [6][7] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Insights - Lithium carbonate futures have surged to a high of 88,000 yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 20% since mid-October [8][9] - Demand for lithium carbonate is driven by a significant increase in orders from battery manufacturers, particularly in the energy storage sector, which has seen a rapid rise in consumption [9][11] - Despite high production levels, the market remains hot, with weekly production reaching historical highs, indicating a robust supply-demand balance [11][12] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - After a month of stagnation, silver prices have surged, with spot silver prices approaching $50, driven more by financial attributes than industrial demand [13][15] - The market is experiencing a "non-traditional squeeze," with significant movements in inventory across major exchanges, indicating unresolved supply-demand imbalances [14] - The silver leasing rate remains elevated, suggesting ongoing risks of a squeeze, with market participants awaiting developments in December [15] Group 4: Chinese Stock Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to attract over 6 trillion yuan from real estate and fixed income products, indicating a significant shift in capital allocation [17][20] - Domestic investors currently have a low allocation to stocks, with only 11% of their assets in equities, suggesting substantial room for growth in stock market participation [20] - The trend of capital migration towards stocks is supported by increasing allocations from both individual and institutional investors, with notable inflows from southbound capital [29] Group 5: Futures Market Selection Criteria - The selection of futures contracts should focus on those with high trading volumes and domestic pricing power, avoiding those with low liquidity or foreign control [21][22] - Key commodities for trading include black series products like rebar and glass, which have shown significant volatility and trend continuation potential [25][39] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying commodities with historical price extremes or prolonged consolidation periods, as these are likely to yield significant trading opportunities [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic role of commodities in hedging against inflation and diversifying risks in the context of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty. It highlights the need for balanced asset allocation among stocks, bonds, and commodities, focusing on timing, selection, and position sizing [4][5]. Group 1: Timing and Economic Cycles - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is a classic framework for timing asset allocation, categorizing the economy into four phases: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6]. - Commodity performance varies across different economic cycles: during recovery, commodity prices remain low due to slow demand recovery; in overheating, strong demand leads to significant price increases; stagflation sees rising inflation with stagnant growth; and recession results in declining economic growth and rising bond prices [9][10]. - The relationship between risk assets and economic cycles indicates that stocks tend to lead economic changes, while commodities respond more synchronously or with a slight lag [11]. Group 2: Selection of Commodity Types - Commodities play a crucial role in combating inflation, as upstream raw material price fluctuations often exceed those of downstream products, providing a buffer against price increases [29]. - The article notes that inflation is often driven by significant price volatility in energy products, which can impact costs across various industries [30]. - Understanding the causes of inflation is essential: monetary phenomena can lead to nominal price increases, while supply-demand imbalances often result from constrained supply [32]. Group 3: Position Sizing and Risk Control - The volatility characteristics of stocks, bonds, and commodities differ, with commodities generally exhibiting higher volatility. In stable macro environments, these assets often move in different directions, allowing for risk mitigation through diversification [36]. - The article discusses the risks associated with inflationary changes, where rising inflation expectations can lead to a positive correlation between equity and commodity markets, complicating risk management strategies [39]. - It suggests that during periods of high volatility, conservative strategies may involve increasing bond allocations to stabilize the portfolio, while aggressive strategies might increase risk asset positions for higher returns [41]. Group 4: Reflection on Commodity Allocation - The article highlights the challenges of timing in the current economic environment, where traditional indicators may not accurately reflect the economic cycle due to structural changes [46]. - It points out that the demand for real estate-related commodities is being suppressed by high household leverage, and the economy is shifting towards a multi-faceted growth model driven by exports and consumption [48]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is noted as a factor that limits total demand for commodities, as lower-income households have less purchasing power compared to higher-income households [54][55].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market has experienced a significant decline since late October, with prices dropping sharply due to a persistent oversupply and weak demand, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [4][22]. Supply Side - Domestic methanol production has increased, with weekly output reaching 196.52 million tons as of November 6, driven by rising operating rates and the recovery of previously offline production facilities [8]. - The capacity utilization rate for methanol plants in China has risen to 87.79%, with limited new maintenance plans expected in the short term, indicating continued supply pressure [8][24]. - The import volume of methanol in October was 154.74 million tons, showing an increase from September, but still below expectations, with a forecast of 150-160 million tons for November [13]. Demand Side - Demand for methanol remains weak, with the overall operating rate of downstream industries at 46.5%, reflecting a decline in purchasing willingness [15]. - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) sector is particularly affected, with significant reductions in production and profitability due to falling prices of basic chemical raw materials [15][24]. Inventory - As of November 12, methanol port inventory in China reached 154.36 million tons, an increase of 5.65 million tons from the previous period, indicating ongoing accumulation despite stable demand [18][22]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the methanol market will continue to face a supply-demand imbalance, with prices likely to remain under pressure in the short term [24][25]. - The potential for a rebound in prices may depend on the reduction of supply from Iran and the overall inventory levels in the coming months [22][24].