Core Viewpoint - The unexpected conclusion of the U.S. government's 232 investigation into copper and the removal of tariffs on imported refined copper led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices, eliminating the premium previously expected from tariffs. This was compounded by disappointing non-farm employment data, which reignited interest in potential interest rate cuts, providing some support for both gold and copper prices [1][3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market Review - Last week, gold prices initially fell but later rebounded, with COMEX gold rising by 0.61% while silver dropped by 3.18%. SHFE gold and silver contracts also saw declines of 0.85% and 5.05%, respectively [2]. - The rebound in gold prices was supported by a significant drop in non-farm employment data, which was much lower than market expectations, leading to a notable increase in rate cut expectations. This, along with the resignation of a Federal Reserve governor, raised questions about the Fed's independence, causing the dollar and interest rates to decline sharply [4][21]. - The gold market is expected to have further upward potential due to ongoing concerns about U.S. monetary credit risks and potential recession risks [52]. Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - The U.S. government's announcement to end the 232 investigation and remove tariffs on imported refined copper caused a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices, which had previously been inflated by tariff expectations. The price gap between U.S. copper and other regions quickly narrowed [3][5]. - Following the FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Powell maintained a hawkish stance, and strong economic data, the market adjusted its expectations for a September rate cut, putting additional pressure on copper prices. However, a significant accident at a Chilean copper mine and disappointing non-farm employment data provided some rebound momentum for copper prices [3][5]. - The domestic copper market is currently experiencing a consumption lull, with prices testing support levels around 78,000 yuan/ton. The expectation is that the removal of U.S. copper tariffs will lead to changes in global refined copper logistics, potentially increasing supply pressure in China [5][51].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement to reinstate VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025, raises questions about its net impact on government revenue and expenditure, suggesting that the effects are not neutral as many investors believe [4][9]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The policy is expected to increase both government revenue from VAT and interest expenditure on new bonds, indicating a simultaneous rise in both aspects [4][9]. - Viewing the situation from a cyclical perspective, the policy could enhance internal circulation, benefiting both government and the real economy through increased tax revenue and interest income [9][18]. Group 2: Theoretical Framework - The concepts of monetary neutrality and Ricardian equivalence are introduced to analyze the effectiveness of fiscal policies, suggesting that in reality, these policies do have significant impacts despite theoretical assumptions [10][17]. - The discussion emphasizes that market participants often lack the rationality required to fully understand the long-term implications of such policies, leading to misinterpretations of their neutrality [18][19]. Group 3: Internal Circulation and Inflation - The relationship between nominal wages and inflation is explored, indicating that increases in nominal wages can enhance internal circulation by raising both wage expenses for businesses and income for households [20][23]. - The article argues that the long-term low CPI in the domestic market is a result of systemic issues across various economic factors, including tax policies [26][30]. Group 4: Policy Signals - The reinstatement of VAT on government bonds signals a potential increase in the likelihood of canceling other tax exemptions and subsidies, particularly on government bond income tax [28][40]. - The discussion highlights the need for a systemic approach to understanding the factors contributing to internal economic challenges, rather than focusing on isolated elements [30][49].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed analysis of commodity market trends, focusing on quantitative indicators for various indices and commodities, highlighting potential trading strategies and market conditions. Group 1: Quantitative Indicators - The Shanghai 50 index futures show a bullish trend with a score of 1.25, while the CSI 300 index futures have a score of 1.27, indicating a slight decrease in bullish momentum compared to previous days [4][6][8]. - The iron ore futures have a bearish trend with a score of 0.83, suggesting a weakening market condition [8][9]. - The trading pool for the Shanghai 50 index has a valuation of 1.11, indicating it is slightly overvalued, while the CSI 300 index is also overvalued at 1.13 [5][7]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Iron ore supply remains high, with 247 steel mills operating at elevated consumption levels, contributing to a stable port throughput [9]. - The profitability of steel mills is reported at 63.64%, which is significantly higher than the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.49% [9]. - The article notes that the iron ore's historical low position is at 46.09, indicating it is relatively close to its historical lows [8]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - For the Shanghai 50 index, the strategy suggests holding positions for existing users and entering new positions when the index surpasses a specific level [12]. - The article recommends setting up a short position for iron ore, with specific entry and exit points based on market trends and technical indicators [10][12]. - The trading strategy emphasizes the importance of monitoring market conditions and adjusting positions accordingly, with a focus on maintaining risk management practices [10][12].

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者林彦、邵翔、武朔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 林彦 邵翔 武朔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 7 月议息会议既"缺乏悬念"，又"充满看点"。 缺乏悬念在于， 无论是从已公布的通胀和非农的数据，还是近期美联 储官员的表态（支持观望的更多），不降息在会前几乎已经是"盖棺定论"。 但充满看点则在于， 面对外部政治、经济 压力，内部的意见分歧，鲍威尔乃至美联储如何"火中取栗"： 既不被控诉失去独立性，又能护美国经济周全。"降得 让人心服口服"可能是鲍威尔剩余任期内最核心的难题。 7 月议息会议是一次重要的尝试。 鲍威尔展示了既"鹰"又"鸽"的一面 ， "鹰"在于对于降息仍不松口，对于压力也不 低头；"鸽"在于美联储政策转向的门槛降低了—— 未来两个月（9月议息会议前）的数据若不佳，也能成为降息的理 由 ，而这在之前几年是不够的。不过从目前看，市场更看重"鹰"派的一面，隔夜美元指数大涨一度接近100；但值得 注意的是让预期反转，可能只需要一次不及预期的非农数据。 具体而言： 其一， ...

以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者紫金天风 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2025年中国经济面临的关键考题之一，是如何在复杂国际环境下通过出口撬动增长引擎。作为国民经 济"压舱石"的大宗商品，其6月出口同环比数据不仅折射出全球产业链重构的微妙信号，更暗藏中国的 产业韧性。 最新数据显示，6月大宗商品及其下游出口呈现结构分化与趋势调整，比如汽车船舶等制成品出口同 比保持相对强势，但光伏产业链出口出现承压状态。 本次课题我们聚焦大宗商品出口持续性展开研究，系统梳理了各主要大宗商品及其核心下游出口的6 月环比，6月同比，1-6月累计同比等关键指标。 从我们统计的数据来看，平板玻璃、电解铝、锌锭、铅锭、镍、碳酸锂等品种及特定品种下游如复合 肥、焊锡等出口持续性较好。 | 板块 | 品种名/ | 6月环比 | 6月同比 | 1-6月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 核心下游 | | | 累计同比 | | | PTA | -3.8% | -39.9% | -16.9% | | | ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent Politburo meeting is the "15th Five-Year Plan," with an emphasis on technology as a key area for both short-term breakthroughs and long-term strategies [3][5] - The meeting highlighted a shift in strategic thinking, moving from a reactive approach to a more proactive stance in navigating international competition, emphasizing the need to "concentrate efforts on doing our own things well" [5][9] - The concept of "anti-involution" is now more nuanced, focusing on both governance and protection of certain advantageous industries, rather than a blanket approach to traditional sectors [8][9] Group 2 - The meeting indicated a prioritization of implementing existing policies over introducing new ones, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds and structural monetary policy tools [9][10] - There are signals of potential new policies aimed at boosting consumption and fostering new growth points in service consumption, which may serve as a buffer for the economy when necessary [10] - The capital market's next steps involve enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity, targeting both domestic and international investors through a focus on technology innovation and supporting quality unprofitable innovative companies to go public [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rumors regarding a restructuring plan in the photovoltaic industry, specifically in the polysilicon sector, which were later debunked by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association. The article emphasizes the ongoing challenges in the polysilicon market and the need for industry consolidation to address overcapacity and financial losses [3][6]. Group 1: Industry Restructuring Rumors - Rumors circulated about a closed-door meeting on July 29, where a "white paper" for industry restructuring was supposedly created, involving 11 polysilicon companies forming a joint venture to consolidate 70,000 tons of capacity [4]. - The proposed acquiring companies included six traditional giants and five emerging firms, indicating a significant shift in industry dynamics [4]. - The exit of six notable companies from the market signals a major reshuffling within the industry [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Responses - The polysilicon industry has faced a severe downturn, with prices plummeting from nearly 300,000 yuan per ton in 2022 to around 40,000 yuan currently, leading to widespread losses [5]. - The urgency for consolidation stems from the industry's prolonged struggles, with many companies on the brink of failure, necessitating a market-driven solution to avoid chaotic exits [5][10]. - The article highlights the government's proactive stance in addressing the issue of excessive competition and guiding the industry towards healthier development [5][10]. Group 3: Historical Context and Policy Implications - The article references past discussions on supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector, including targets for capacity reduction and efficiency improvements [8][9]. - It notes that the government's recognition of the detrimental effects of "involution" in manufacturing has led to a renewed focus on restructuring and efficiency [10][11]. - The divergence in market outlooks between domestic and foreign analysts is attributed to differing interpretations of government policy impacts on the industry [10].

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "anti-involution" is part of a once-in-a-generation economic transformation, shifting towards a more balanced growth model rather than repeating previous patterns. The focus is on enhancing supply-side pricing power to meet capital return rates, especially in international markets, where Chinese commodities should aim for profit rather than cheap exports [3][6]. Group 1: Economic Transformation - The anti-involution policy is seen as a structural shift in the economy, moving from an external demand-driven model to a domestic circulation model, emphasizing higher quality standards and capital returns [7][8]. - The end of the real estate cycle has made the previous growth model unsustainable, leading to increased competition and declining capital returns [11][13]. - The "9.24 turning point" signifies the beginning of a new economic structure transformation, focusing on capital market-driven growth and improving return on equity (ROE) [13][14]. Group 2: Supply-Side Pricing Power - Anti-involution aims to restore supply-side pricing power, allowing manufacturers to gain greater profits from international markets rather than merely competing on price [18][19]. - The pricing target of anti-involution may exceed just covering costs, aiming to meet capital return requirements [19][21]. - The challenge of anti-involution lies in the distribution of investment losses, which could impact various stakeholders, including residents, banks, investors, and the government [22][24]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The focus should be on commodities with monopolistic pricing potential in the global market, as China can leverage its position to gain profits despite changing trade dynamics [27][29]. - Several commodities have been identified as having potential based on global market share, industry concentration, capacity utilization, and demand outlook, including polysilicon, caustic soda, PTA, polyester bottle flakes, and refined tin [29].

以下文章来源于大地期货研究院 ，作者大地期货研究院 大地期货研究院 . 大地期货研究院官方订阅号 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 马爽 来源 | 大地期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 主要结论 疫病方面： 年初 1-2 月，南北方部分地区皆有仔猪腹泻疫病发生，且存在区域性差异；叠加 5-6 月广东降雨量较大，有雨水季猪病情况，对出栏存在影响。 产能趋势： 各环节保有利润下，主被动去产有效驱动不足，但官方稳价降产目标明确，引导企业调整产能、从环保等角度切入，行业预计迎来缓慢降产阶段。 成本利润： 降本增效仍是大方向，规模较大企业下半年养殖成本仍有一定调降空间，微利状态或持续。 价格预期： 市场普遍看好 8 月左右价格，有望再度迎来一轮涨价，但对于具体涨幅能否超过前高，预期较为谨慎，届时还要关注二育、宰量等方面的影响。中长期 结合能繁和仔猪数据来看，对于 9 月至四季度相对不太看好。 综合来说，对于疫病影响我们暂且维持谨慎看待，导致供应边际缩量预期有限。当下南方代表省份对近两月价格预期较好，后续关注此轮跌价持稳后，是否南方情 绪性影响会带动外部，从而再度形成南北共振拉涨的局面。 调研详细情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market volatility is driven by intense corrections in speculation, raising questions about whether the current supply-side policy-driven rally has ended or is merely a "backward catch" opportunity [3][8]. Policy Analysis - The government has emphasized the need to combat deflation through supply-side policies, such as halting the addition of excess capacity and promoting domestic consumption. The scope of supply rationalization measures has expanded to include metals, petrochemicals, and industries like lithium and coal, which have reported supply disruptions [3][9]. - Historical responses to deflation have varied, with the current situation being unique due to the predominance of advanced capacity and the fragmented industrial landscape, alongside high government debt limiting fiscal space [3][9][10]. Commodity-Specific Insights - Lithium prices have rebounded but remain below marginal cash costs of $11,500/ton, with approximately 45% of global capacity unable to cover cash costs at a price of $9,000/ton. This suggests limited downside potential for prices [4][13]. - Recent compliance checks in the lithium sector may lead to short-term supply disruptions, with around 20,000 tons of lithium capacity facing compliance risks, potentially resulting in significant inventory depletion and price rebounds [14]. - In the coal sector, production inspections are focused on preventing overproduction, with expectations of moderate impacts. However, recent price declines may limit further downside [5][15]. Agricultural Sector Developments - The hog farming industry is actively responding to regulatory controls by reducing breeding sow inventories and adjusting market weights, which may support near-term price stability and long-term valuation increases [6][16]. Market Trends and Expectations - The bond market reflects expectations of prolonged deflation, with government policies aimed at supply-side constraints potentially boosting industrial prices and improving upstream profits. This may reduce the urgency for monetary easing [6][17]. - The recent surge in government infrastructure investment, such as the $1.2 trillion Tibet dam project, has also contributed to supply concerns and influenced market dynamics [6][17].