Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural differentiation in commodity prices driven by macroeconomic policies and global strategic shifts, predicting that this trend will continue into 2026 [4][5]. Group 1: Review of 2025 - In 2025, commodities experienced "two resonances and two differentiations," with notable price movements influenced by external policy shocks and domestic economic conditions [7][8]. - The first differentiation occurred from post-Spring Festival to the end of March, where black commodities weakened while non-ferrous metals showed strength [8]. - The first resonance happened from early April to late May, where commodities collectively weakened due to tariff impacts, except for precious metals [8][10]. - The second resonance from mid-June to early August saw a recovery in commodity prices driven by both internal and external factors [8][10]. - The second differentiation from mid-August onwards showed weakness in black, energy, and agricultural products, while precious and non-ferrous metals remained strong [8]. Group 2: Global Macro Economy and Strategic Mainline - The article highlights the need to focus on policy effects under the "high-quality development" framework in China, with an emphasis on effective investment and consumption [27][29]. - The U.S. economy is characterized by multiple expectation gaps, with significant policy impacts overshadowing fundamental economic data [37][40]. - Other regions, including Europe and Japan, face economic concerns, with potential shifts in monetary policy as they navigate inflation and growth challenges [48][50]. Group 3: 2026 Outlook - The long-term narratives of energy transition, AI-driven demand, and resource nationalism are expected to continue shaping commodity markets [5][61]. - The growth in energy storage demand is anticipated to be robust, driven by clean energy initiatives and technological advancements [61][63]. - AI investments are projected to stimulate demand for specific commodities, particularly in data center construction, which will require significant amounts of copper and other materials [67][68]. - Global strategic shifts are leading to increased competition for key resources, with nations focusing on supply chain security and self-sufficiency [79][80]. Group 4: Commodity Configuration Strategies - The article suggests that commodity pricing will stabilize in 2026, with a gradual recovery in PPI expected as macroeconomic conditions improve [34][29]. - The focus on stabilizing industrial product prices through policy measures is seen as crucial for maintaining market equilibrium [31][32]. - The anticipated adjustments in production capacity and market dynamics will create both strategic and tactical opportunities for investors [6][34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the polysilicon futures market, highlighting a significant increase in prices despite underlying supply-demand imbalances and inventory accumulation [3][6]. Price Movement - On December 15, 2025, polysilicon futures prices rose by 840 yuan/ton to 58,030 yuan/ton, marking an increase of over 3% and reaching a new high [3]. Driving Factors for Price Increase - Reports indicate that polysilicon production or shipment volumes may significantly decline to support prices, with low warehouse receipts also favoring a stronger price trend [5]. - Despite the anticipated production cuts, last week's production decline was minimal, leading to continued oversupply and inventory growth [5]. Market Dynamics - The main contradiction in the market is between the strong futures market with high premiums and the weak spot market characterized by oversupply [6]. - Following the announcement of new registered brands for polysilicon futures, prices initially dropped but later rebounded due to expectations of production cuts and price adjustments [6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Demand remains weak, with inventory increasing by 10,000 tons to 291,000 tons, while production slightly decreased [7]. - The downstream production is expected to decline further, particularly in the battery cell segment, which faces dual pressures from high raw material costs and falling product prices [7]. Future Outlook - The contradiction between a strong futures market and weak spot demand persists, necessitating careful position management by investors [8]. - The actual supply-demand balance will depend on the implementation of production cuts and capacity adjustments [8]. - If significant production cuts occur, polysilicon prices may continue to rise; otherwise, high premiums in futures may converge with spot prices [8].

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have shown a significant upward trend this year, with a cumulative increase of 98.67% since the beginning of the year, driven by supply constraints and strong demand factors [3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 15, platinum futures reached a 7% limit up for the first time since listing, closing at 482.4 yuan per gram, while palladium futures also rose by 4.73% to 407.6 yuan per gram [1]. - Trading volume for platinum futures (PT2606) increased by 237% to 41,832 contracts, while open interest rose by 60% to 17,844 contracts [1]. - Palladium futures (PD2606) saw a trading volume increase of 498% to 30,669 contracts, with open interest up by 61% to 5,562 contracts [1]. Group 2: Supply Factors - The first wave of platinum price increases occurred from May to July due to production disruptions in South Africa, where output fell by 13% year-on-year in the first quarter [4]. - The global supply of platinum is expected to decline further, with a projected drop of 13% to 34 tons in the first quarter of 2025, marking the lowest quarterly output since Q2 2020 [4][12]. - South Africa's mining sector faces challenges such as power shortages and aging infrastructure, leading to increased production costs and supply constraints [6][7]. Group 3: Demand Factors - The second wave of price increases from late August to mid-October was influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, which enhanced platinum's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The demand for platinum is supported by stricter emission regulations, which require more platinum in catalytic converters for existing and new gasoline vehicles [8]. - A new demand surge is anticipated from the hydrogen energy sector, where platinum is a key catalyst in fuel cells and green hydrogen production [8]. Group 4: Financial Factors - The third driving force behind the recent price surge is the macroeconomic environment, characterized by lower interest rates, which makes platinum an attractive investment asset [9]. - As the Federal Reserve has adopted a dovish stance, the expectation of continued monetary easing has led to increased investment interest in platinum, with inflows into ETFs and futures markets [10]. - The current market dynamics suggest that platinum is viewed as undervalued compared to gold, attracting speculative investments [10]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that palladium supply will remain tight in the medium term, with inventories at multi-year lows, and geopolitical risks related to Russia's supply could further impact prices [11]. - The overall sentiment in the platinum market remains strong, with expectations of continued price support due to supply-demand imbalances and macroeconomic conditions [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, aligning with market expectations, and initiated RMP operations, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [2][5] - The gold and silver prices saw significant increases last week, with COMEX gold rising by 2.42% and silver by 5.59%, while copper prices experienced fluctuations, reflecting market reactions to the FOMC meeting [3][6] - The copper market showed a high-level operation pattern, with COMEX copper prices experiencing a brief surge before retreating due to profit-taking amid a decline in U.S. stock markets [9][11] Group 2 - The copper concentrate TC weekly index decreased by $0.24 to -$42.89 per dry ton, indicating limited market activity and cautious attitudes among participants regarding spot transactions [17] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories increased slightly, reflecting weak downstream demand and limited outflow, with expectations of continued inventory growth due to high copper prices [23][24] - The precious metals market is influenced by upcoming U.S. economic data releases, with expectations that gold prices will remain in an upward channel in the medium to long term, despite short-term fluctuations [7][58]

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - The article discusses how silver has taken the spotlight as gold faces regulatory constraints, leading to a shift in market dynamics where silver reflects macroeconomic concerns more freely than gold [3][4]. - The gold-silver ratio has changed, indicating a more optimistic market sentiment, with silver's price rising faster than gold's, suggesting a potential bullish trend for silver [4]. - Current market conditions show a tightening of physical silver supply, with global inventories being affected by preemptive movements into the U.S. due to potential tariffs, leading to a significant price increase [4]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Changes - The polysilicon market experienced a strong rally due to a shortage of deliverable warehouse receipts, which created a "squeeze" scenario, pushing prices up significantly [6][7]. - Recent developments indicate an increase in available warehouse receipts, which may signal a shift back to fundamental market conditions rather than speculative trading [10]. - The article highlights the transition from a speculative-driven market to one that is more aligned with actual supply and demand fundamentals [10]. Group 3: Glass Market Challenges - The glass market is facing a dual challenge of reduced production and stagnant demand, leading to a lack of price recovery despite some supply-side adjustments [12][13]. - Current data shows a slight decrease in daily melting capacity, but this has not sufficiently alleviated the oversupply situation, as demand remains weak [12]. - The article notes that while there have been some price fluctuations, the underlying demand issues continue to hinder any significant rebound in glass prices [13]. Group 4: Commodity Market Overview - The article emphasizes that the current discussions around a "commodity bull market" are largely driven by the performance of gold, silver, and copper, which have unique supply and demand characteristics [14][15]. - It contrasts the strong narratives surrounding these metals with the struggles faced by other commodities like oil and steel, which are still influenced by traditional supply-demand dynamics [20][21]. - The article suggests that the excitement around certain commodities may overshadow the more challenging realities faced by others, indicating a selective bullish sentiment in the market [20][21]. Group 5: Bidding War Dynamics in Futures Market - The article outlines the phenomenon of "squeezing" in the futures market, where traders exploit market rules and information asymmetries to gain an advantage [23][25]. - It describes how different commodities have experienced unique bidding wars, with some being driven by supply shortages and others by regulatory loopholes [26][27]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding market rules and dynamics to navigate the complexities of futures trading effectively [30]. Group 6: Long-term Outlook for Coal Market - The coal market is expected to face supply constraints due to completed production targets and regulatory pressures, which may limit future output increases [42]. - Demand is anticipated to recover as macroeconomic conditions improve, particularly with upcoming seasonal purchasing needs [44]. - The article suggests that current price declines may present buying opportunities, as the underlying supply-demand fundamentals remain supportive of a long-term bullish outlook [46].

以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者广发期货研究所 广发期货研究 . 推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 行情导读： 隔夜，美联储降息叠加启动RMP债券购买的偏鸽派行动对市场影响持续发酵叠加COMEX白银交割月行 情 的 演 绎 ， 海 外 市 场 情 绪 高 涨 的 带 动 内 外 盘 白 银 价 格 继 续 摸 高 。 12 月 12 日 ， 日 盘 ， 沪 银 主 力 合 约 AG2602涨幅接近4%，收盘报14892元/千克，价格持续上涨带来波动率的走强，白银VIX波动率指数维 持在40%的高位。 数据来源：文华财经 驱动分析一：美国储宽松预期持续升温，流动性改善支持资金流向贵金属 美联储周四凌晨如期宣布降息25个基点将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%-3.75%，年内累计降息达75 个基点。值得注意的是决议上宣布当月启动400亿美元的短期国债购买用于准备金管理，在关键时间保障市 场流动性。 从市场反应来看，本次降息叠加启动 RMP债券购买的偏鸽派行动具有重要意义，尽管区别于购买长债的QE 扩表，但美联储的 RMP短债购买措施将持续到明年二季度，购债规模可能维持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in tin prices driven by supply concerns due to geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, alongside a structural supply shortage and varying demand dynamics in the semiconductor and traditional electronics sectors [2][8][17]. Supply Side - Tin prices have surged, with the Shanghai tin futures reaching a record high of 333,000 yuan/ton, up 4.54% as of December 12 [2][17]. - LME tin inventory increased by 605 tons (19.8%) to 3,655 tons, the highest since March, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a weekly increase of 506 tons (8.0%) [4]. - Domestic tin ore imports rose significantly by 33.49% in October to 11,600 tons, but year-on-year figures show a decline of 22.54% [14]. - Domestic refined tin production remains stable, but raw material supply constraints limit significant increases in output [14][18]. Demand Side - Demand for tin is showing structural differentiation, with the semiconductor industry maintaining stability, while traditional electronics are experiencing weakness [15]. - The production of tin solder in November saw a slight increase of 0.95%, with the South China region showing resilience due to its integration into fast-growing sectors like new energy vehicles and AI [15]. - Traditional electronics and home appliances are recovering slowly, leading to weaker order sentiment and reduced operational enthusiasm among companies [15][18]. Market Sentiment - The macroeconomic attributes of tin have strengthened over the past two years, with prices showing an upward trend due to AI technology development driving long-term demand [16]. - The market is characterized by tight supply, with geopolitical tensions in the Congo exacerbating the situation, while traditional demand remains subdued [17][18]. - Future price expectations suggest a range of 290,000 to 360,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai tin and 36,000 to 45,000 USD/ton for LME tin, influenced by ongoing supply disruptions and demand recovery in specific sectors [16][19].

Core Viewpoint - The global lithium carbonate supply and demand is expected to reach a tight balance by 2026, with concerns about the actual installed capacity in energy storage being a key risk factor affecting demand [2]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The main development directions in the new energy sector are photovoltaic and lithium batteries, which include lithium ore, cobalt, and nickel in the supply chain [3]. - Cobalt and nickel are primarily used in military and ternary material fields, while lithium carbonate has broader applications, including in power batteries and energy storage [4]. - African lithium mines have advantages of low cost and high grade, and are expected to become an important supply source for the lithium battery industry in the future [5]. - The expected increase in African lithium carbonate supply by 2026 is estimated to be between 120,000 to 150,000 tons, mainly from Nigeria [6]. - The mining cost of lithium in Nigeria is below 50,000 yuan per ton, providing a significant cost advantage [7]. - Chinese companies have made substantial investments in Nigerian lithium mines, indicating a large future supply potential [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing tight supply-demand relationships, with significant price volatility and uneven profit distribution across the supply chain [10]. - The demand growth rates for power batteries and energy storage markets differ, necessitating attention to changes in the power battery market [11]. - After 2028, the contribution of recycling to lithium carbonate supply is expected to increase significantly, potentially impacting the market [12]. Group 3: Company Strategies - The battery industry is currently in a rapid development phase, with solid-state batteries being a future trend. Leading companies have advantages in materials and technology, but the entire supply chain still faces challenges related to inventory management and price volatility [13]. - Company B has performed well this year, with leading companies holding a competitive edge in materials and technology [14]. - Profit distribution is uneven across the supply chain, with downstream energy storage yielding higher returns [15]. - Inventory management and price fluctuations are major issues facing the current supply chain [16]. Group 4: Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices are influenced by market supply-demand and inventory changes, exhibiting significant volatility. There are differing market expectations regarding future price trends, but there is a general belief that prices will rise [17]. - The price of lithium carbonate is affected by the price of electrolyte, indicating a correlation between the two [18]. - Regulatory policies from exchanges will significantly impact lithium carbonate prices [20]. Group 5: Profit Distribution - The majority of profits in the supply chain are concentrated in the upstream sector, while midstream profits are relatively low. Companies need to enhance risk management to avoid losses due to price fluctuations [21]. - Upstream profits are higher, while midstream companies face significant competitive pressure [22]. - Strategic decisions approved by the board can help stabilize company development and mitigate single risks [24]. Group 6: Future Focus Areas - Close attention should be paid to changes in the power battery market demand and its impact on the lithium carbonate market [25]. - A deeper understanding of the mining costs, grades, and future supply potential of African lithium mines is necessary [26]. - Exploring profit distribution mechanisms within the supply chain can promote healthy industry development [27].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market in 2025 is expected to experience a strong supply and demand dynamic, with supply growth lagging behind demand growth, leading to high price volatility and a focus on the pace of marginal supply release [4][20]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply growth rate is lower than the demand growth rate, indicating a supply-demand mismatch that will keep prices elevated [4][24]. - The core contradiction in the lithium carbonate market has shifted from "high total inventory" to "actual tight balance under structural differentiation," with smelter inventories at historical lows and downstream usable inventories tight [11][20]. Policy Sensitivity - The demand side remains highly sensitive to policies such as subsidies, tax reductions, and resource tax/mining rights policies [6]. Market Positioning - The market is currently in a low-level wide fluctuation phase after "squeezing out excess," with significant reversals expected only after 2026 when supply rebalances [7]. Yichun Mining Rights Incident - The temporary production halt due to the Yichun mining rights issue may lead to repeated fluctuations until 2027, with ongoing monitoring required [8]. Price and Inventory Trends - The average monthly price of lithium carbonate is projected to fluctuate, with significant variations in production, imports, and consumption throughout 2025 [15]. - The overall expectation for the lithium carbonate market in 2026 is a consensus on a "price central rebound," driven by strengthening downstream demand [20]. Nigerian Mining Suspension - The recent suspension of mining in northern Nigeria has raised market concerns, but the actual impact may be less significant than perceived, as long-term growth in lithium exports from Nigeria to China is expected to continue [23]. Conclusion - Current strong realities (low inventory) and strong expectations (growing demand) for lithium carbonate prices suggest a lack of basis for significant declines, while close attention should be paid to the pace of supply release and policy changes [26].

编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 文末问答实录来源于公众号智堡Mikko 美 联 储 的 年 终 大 戏 刚 落 幕 ： 降 息 25 个 基 点 ， 利 率 到 3.5%-3.75% 。 这 事 儿 市 场 早 就 料 到 了，不算惊喜。但这次会议特别"纠结"。 为什么说它"纠结"？ 原因有三： 第 一 ， 数 据 不 全 ： 美 国 政 府 之 前 停 摆 ， 导 致 美 联 储 缺 失 了 两 个 月 关 键 数 据 ， 等 于 " 雾 天 开 车"。 第二，内部分歧大：会议上有三张反对票，是2019年以来最多的一次，自己人都没统一意 见。 第三，未来变量多：鲍威尔的主席任期明年就结束了，新主席是谁、会带来什么风格，都是 未知数。 仔细看，这次会议其实释放了 "中性偏鹰" 的信号。虽然降了息，但更新的"点阵图"显示， 2026年可能只降息一次，比市场预期的两次更谨慎。声明里还特意加了一句，未来调整要 考虑"幅度和时机"——熟悉的味道！上次出现这话是2024年12月，随后降息就暂停了。鲍 威尔也说，当前利率已接近"中性水平"，这暗示宽松空间不大了。 不过，比这次降息更重要的，是两件关乎未来的事。 第 ...