Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the proposed 50% tariff on copper and related products by the Trump administration, highlighting the potential impact on the U.S. copper market and global supply dynamics [1][5][9]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 8, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and related products, which is expected to include copper wire, scrap copper, and copper-containing products, but exclude copper concentrate and end products like appliances and electronics [1][5]. - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures experienced a three-day rally, reaching a historical high of $5.89 per pound, while LME copper prices fluctuated, dropping to $9,553 per ton before rebounding [3]. Group 2: U.S. Copper Production and Consumption - The U.S. produces approximately 800,000 to 850,000 tons of refined copper annually but consumes around 1.6 million tons, leading to a significant import dependency [5][6]. - The White House aims to increase domestic copper production by 70% by 2035 and reduce import reliance from 45% to 30% [9]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Alternatives - Various industries are affected by the tariff, with the textile industry having 17% of its exports to the U.S., while the consumer electronics sector faces a 27.5% exposure [11]. - The article suggests that while tariffs may incentivize domestic production, the high costs and long timelines associated with mining new copper sources pose significant challenges [12][14]. Group 4: Global Copper Supply Dynamics - The article notes that the U.S. copper mining sector is facing increasing operational costs and legal challenges, making it difficult to ramp up production quickly [12][14]. - China has become the largest copper refining nation, with production expected to reach 12 million tons by 2024, and it controls nearly half of the global copper refining capacity [29][31]. Group 5: Price Dynamics and Market Expectations - The article indicates that copper prices are expected to stabilize around $12,000 to $13,000 per ton, which is necessary for mining operations to be economically viable [13][37]. - The tariff is seen as a variable that may influence short-term pricing but is unlikely to change the fundamental pricing logic based on global supply and demand dynamics [37]. Group 6: Geopolitical Considerations - The article highlights that geopolitical tensions are driving China to increase its overseas mining acquisitions, reflecting a strategic move to secure essential raw materials amid rising global competition [33][35]. - The U.S. tariffs are viewed as a tool to address supply imbalances, but the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain given the complexities of the mining and refining industries [39].

自2024年7月政治局会议提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争，至2025年7月1日中央财经委员会正式提出依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动 落后产能有序退出，反内卷相关政策是在不断推进加强的。当前外有关税冲击、出口环境恶劣，加剧国内产能过剩；内有多行业长期有 规模无利润，行业生态日益恶劣，已陷入低价通缩循环。因此治理无序竞争、调整产能结构、促进产业升级的反内卷势在必行。特别是 光伏、汽车、钢铁等重点行业。 此次会议研讨后，我们认为反内卷影响周期长，至少是下半年一条交易主线，部分板块存在投资机会。商品主要关注多晶硅，股票关注 通威和隆基，同时股指300也是较好的标的。 具体商品来看： 以下文章来源于混沌天成研究 ，作者能化组 混沌天成研究 . 混沌天成研究院官方公众号。基于混沌天成的地方触角和国际化架构，我们致力于打造一家草根信息与高科技结合，中国国情和国际视野兼备的商品期货 和全球宏观研究院。 来源 | 混沌天成研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点概述 进入7月，"反内卷"新一轮供给侧改革论调，已开始成为近期商品交易的一大主线。此轮反内卷与以往有何不同，是否将是下半年的投资 主线，各板块又存在哪些投资机 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in bulk commodities, particularly polysilicon, is not solely due to the "anti-involution" discussions but is supported by macroeconomic and industrial fundamentals [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The weakest bulk commodities this year are closely related to "coal + real estate," particularly black building materials and new energy products, which have entered a bottoming phase since June due to cost stabilization and unexpected demand [2]. - The oversupply of coal in the past two years has led to a collapse in costs for coal-related products, but recent stabilization in coal prices, driven by seasonal demand, has provided a foundation for the rebound of downstream commodities [2][3]. - Demand has exceeded expectations, with China's exports continuing to perform well despite global concerns, supported by a stable U.S. economy and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" act, which will boost the U.S. economy in the short term [2][3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Reform and Its Implications - The recent "anti-involution" policies have acted as a catalyst for further commodity rebounds, but the current supply-side reforms differ significantly from those initiated in late 2015, which focused on substantial capacity reduction in coal and steel industries [3]. - The current supply-side reform primarily targets the new energy sector, which has a smaller impact compared to previous reforms, as it mainly involves midstream manufacturing and does not significantly control raw material demand [3][4]. - The iron ore supply is global, and an increase in production is expected next year, indicating that coal, coke, and steel industries are not the main focus of the current supply-side reforms [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The impact of the current "anti-involution" is expected to be milder, serving as a trigger rather than the main driver of the commodity rebound, which is fundamentally supported [4]. - In the short term, due to healthy fundamentals, related commodities may still have room for rebound, but the potential for "coal + real estate" related commodities is limited due to ongoing oversupply [4]. - The future performance of leading polysilicon companies will largely depend on the implementation of policies, with prices previously driven down to industry minimum costs, and any recovery will hinge on policy execution and effectiveness [4].

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's July supply and demand report is expected to show slight adjustments in soybean supply and inventory, with a focus on the 2024/25 and 2025/26 crop years, reflecting changes in planting area, export sales, and crushing capacity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - For the 2024/25 crop year, U.S. soybean crushing reached 1.846 billion bushels by May, a year-on-year increase of 5.89%, nearing the annual growth target [2]. - As of June 19, weekly net sales of old crop soybeans were around 500,000 tons, with cumulative export sales at 49.47 million tons, leaving 880,000 tons to meet the export target [2]. - The 2025/26 crop year is projected to have a planting area of 83.38 million acres, slightly down from previous estimates, with a yield forecast maintained at 52.5 bushels per acre [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The CBOT soybean prices are fluctuating within a range of 1010-1080 cents per bushel, influenced by weather conditions and export demand, particularly from China [4]. - As of late June, approximately 12% of U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, slightly down from the previous week but higher than the same period last year [4]. Group 3: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean meal inventory levels were low prior to late June due to delayed imports and operational issues at crushing plants, but have since normalized as feed companies increased purchases [7]. - The price of soybean meal in East China dropped from 2910 yuan/ton in mid-June to 2810 yuan/ton by early July, reflecting changes in supply and demand dynamics [7][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming negotiations regarding U.S. agricultural product purchases by other countries may impact global soybean trade flows, potentially affecting domestic soybean meal prices [14]. - The uncertainty surrounding the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases by China could lead to increased competition between U.S. and South American soybeans, influencing market prices [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of President Trump's announcement to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, which has led to a significant spike in copper prices and trading volumes, indicating a major shift in the copper market dynamics [3][7]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - Trump's decision to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports caused copper prices to soar to historical highs, marking the largest single-day increase ever recorded [3]. - The trading volume on the COMEX during the announcement window was 54% higher than any period since Trump's election, with the Sep/Dec price spread trading at three times its historical high [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. is a major copper importer, with 2024 imports expected to account for approximately 53% of total demand, while domestic production is around 850,000 tons, with imports exceeding 1.4 million tons [7]. - The tariff announcement came earlier than market expectations, as the investigation under Section 232 could have extended until late November [9]. Group 3: Inventory and Price Mechanism - Despite the tariff, U.S. copper inventories have accumulated significantly, leading to a supply surplus that may mitigate immediate price impacts [12]. - The COMEX price reflects the total cost of importing copper into the U.S., and the current supply situation suggests that short-term import shocks can be absorbed [11]. Group 4: Future Market Implications - The timing of the tariff's implementation is crucial; if enacted within three weeks, it may not significantly pressure overseas markets due to existing shipments [20]. - The potential for exemptions on certain copper products, such as scrap copper, remains uncertain, which could affect market structure and pricing [16]. Group 5: Long-term Considerations - Once the tariff is in effect, additional buying may decrease, and U.S. import levels could drop below normal as existing inventories are prioritized for use [17]. - The preemptive stockpiling of copper suggests that the market's reaction to the tariff may be delayed until domestic inventories are significantly reduced [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant market reversals in the domestic futures market driven by macro policies, supply-demand changes, and geopolitical events, highlighting historical trends and potential future implications. Group 1: Historical Market Trends - From 2001 to 2007, a super cycle in commodities was driven by the rapid industrialization of China post-WTO accession and a drop in U.S. interest rates to 1% [2][4]. - Notable price increases included copper rising from 15,000 CNY/ton in 2002 to 85,000 CNY/ton in 2006, and rubber increasing from 6,000 CNY/ton in 2001 to 30,000 CNY/ton in 2006, primarily due to infrastructure demands and supply constraints [3][4]. Group 2: Recovery Post-Financial Crisis - The period from 2008 to 2011 saw a recovery following the global financial crisis, with China's "four trillion" stimulus plan and loose monetary policy [6][7]. - Cotton prices surged from 10,000 CNY/ton in 2008 to 33,000 CNY/ton in 2010, driven by reduced production in Xinjiang and a recovery in the textile industry [7]. - Rebar prices increased from 3,400 CNY/ton in early 2009 to 5,000 CNY/ton in 2011, supported by infrastructure investments [8]. Group 3: Supply-Side Reforms - In 2016, supply-side reforms led to a reversal in the black series commodities market, with forced capacity reductions following years of overproduction [11][12]. - Coking coal prices rose from 515 CNY/ton at the end of 2015 to 1,600 CNY/ton in 2016 due to mine closures and production limits [13]. - Rebar prices increased from 1,616 CNY/ton to 3,500 CNY/ton, influenced by a recovery in real estate and infrastructure [14]. Group 4: Post-Pandemic Recovery and New Energy Revolution - The period from 2020 to 2021 was marked by a recovery from the pandemic, with global central banks injecting liquidity and China resuming production first [17][18]. - Copper prices rose from 35,000 CNY/ton in March 2020 to 78,000 CNY/ton in July 2021, driven by demand from green transition initiatives [18]. - The shipping index for Europe surged from 1,000 points in June 2020 to 10,000 points in October 2021, reflecting a recovery in global demand [18]. Group 5: Current and Future Trends - The period from 2023 to 2025 is characterized by geopolitical conflicts and resource nationalism, with significant events impacting supply chains [20][21]. - The ban on mining in Wa State in April 2023 led to a global tin supply crisis, with prices spiking due to reduced imports from China [21]. - The shipping index for Europe increased from 701.6 points in October 2023 to 4,769.9 points by July 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply shortages [22]. Group 6: Key Insights - Market reversals are often triggered by sudden events (e.g., mine closures, wars) or strong policies (e.g., supply-side reforms, monetary easing) [25]. - Supply-demand mismatches, particularly under low inventory and rigid demand conditions, can lead to significant price volatility [25]. - The current market is in a "high volatility norm," with a focus on copper (due to new energy demand), shipping (geopolitical risks), and tin (resource scarcity) [26].

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming launch of futures contracts for offset printing paper, indicating a significant development in the paper trading market [3][10]. - Offset printing paper is categorized as cultural paper, specifically non-coated paper, with double offset paper being a common type [4][5]. - The production process of double offset paper involves several stages, including pulping, paper making, sizing, and treatment, with variations depending on whether the pulp is self-produced or purchased [5][6]. Group 2 - The cost structure of double offset paper shows that wood pulp accounts for 70%-75% of the total cost, while chemical additives and energy costs make up smaller portions [8]. - The article outlines the characteristics of deliverable products, including weight, size, and brightness, with specific grades set for futures contracts [10][12]. - The quality standards for deliverable double offset paper are defined, including parameters such as thickness, opacity, and tensile strength, which must meet or exceed national standards [13][14]. Group 3 - Current market prices for various brands of double offset paper are provided, indicating a range of prices from 4750 to 5270 [15]. - The article emphasizes that the futures market price may initially align with the prices of deliverable products, particularly in a market where supply exceeds demand [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trading situation and strategies for pure benzene futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, highlighting the initial trading performance and market dynamics following the listing of the contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Trading Situation - Pure benzene futures were listed on July 8, 2025, with the initial contracts priced at 5900 CNY/ton, closely aligning with the prevailing spot prices in East China [2]. - The opening prices for the contracts BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 were 5900 CNY/ton, 5950 CNY/ton, 6050 CNY/ton, and 5900 CNY/ton respectively, indicating a contango structure in the forward curve [3]. - The main contract BZ2603 recorded a trading volume of 24,865 lots and a closing price of 5931 CNY/ton, which is 31 CNY/ton higher than the listing price [3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - The article suggests a short-term bullish outlook for pure benzene due to low valuations and support from rising oil prices, while recommending a cautious approach for potential short-selling opportunities in the third quarter [4]. - The contango structure observed in the opening prices reflects the current inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation for a reversal in the curve as the market approaches the third quarter [6]. - For cross-commodity arbitrage, the article notes that the processing margin for styrene is currently low, indicating limited arbitrage opportunities, but suggests monitoring for potential upward corrections if margins fall below 100 CNY/ton [10]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The article highlights that the PX price is currently weak, while benzene prices have shown slight increases, leading to a narrowing PX-BZ price spread [13]. - The anticipated improvement in PX market supply and demand dynamics suggests a potential for long positions in the PX-BZ spread as the market approaches peak demand seasons [13].

Core Viewpoints - The market is currently trading on expectations of supply-side regulation, with strong policies leading to price increases from silicon material manufacturers, which in turn amplifies bullish sentiment. Confidence in the current round of supply-side regulation is expected to continue, with anticipated actions such as capacity mergers, elimination of outdated capacity, and regulation of low-priced products [1] - Despite the bullish sentiment, there are concerns regarding weak realities, as increased production from major manufacturers in July and continued supply pressure in August may lead to a return to inventory accumulation for polysilicon in the second half of the year. The bargaining power remains with downstream players, creating uncertainty about whether they can accept price increases from silicon manufacturers [1] - A strategy focusing on cross-commodity hedging is recommended, as additional bullish stimuli are needed for polysilicon futures to continue rising. The current market does not show fundamental improvements or confirmation of timing, suggesting that single-direction strategies may carry increased volatility risks [1] Supply Capacity Dynamics - As of now, China's nominal polysilicon capacity stands at 3.084 million tons, with an additional planned capacity of 2.188 million tons. Various projects are experiencing delays, such as the 100,000-ton output from Hongli in Qinghai, which is expected in mid-July, while other projects have been postponed [3] - The global polysilicon production for July is projected at 109,100 tons, reflecting an 11.94% quarter-on-quarter increase. However, there are no significant recovery actions observed in Xinjiang's production capacity, and the overall supply pressure is expected to persist [3] Market Feedback and Price Trends - The polysilicon market is under pressure due to increased supply and reduced production from downstream sectors, leading to a forecast of inventory accumulation in the second half of 2025. Current inventory levels are expected to rise to 4-5 months [3] - In July, the global silicon wafer production was reported at 51.84 GW, a decrease of 10.98% quarter-on-quarter, with prices for various types of silicon wafers showing declines [5] - The battery cell production for July is estimated at 57.12 GW, with inventory levels rising rapidly due to weakened demand. The price for battery cells has also decreased, indicating ongoing market challenges [5] Future Projections - The global photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 579.17 GW in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.28%. However, the Chinese market is projected to see a decline in new installations due to demand being pulled forward earlier in the year [5] - The European market shows signs of recovery, with an expected annual installation of 70.65 GW, while the U.S. market is anticipated to face challenges due to policy changes affecting new installations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying investment opportunities in commodities during extreme market emotions and highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of market dynamics and pricing mechanisms [3]. Group 1: Commodity Selection Framework - The framework for selecting commodities based on the "anti-involution" theme includes four key indicators: industry loss cycles, capacity utilization rate declines, risk factors from past market conditions, and the concentration of leading players [4][5]. - Significant categories identified for investment include industries with notable losses such as PVC, stainless steel, and polysilicon, as well as sectors with concentrated market shares like PTA, asphalt, and soda ash [5]. Group 2: Pricing Logic of Anti-Involution Rebound - The pricing logic surrounding the rebound from anti-involution suggests that punitive pricing strategies may alleviate market pessimism regarding deflation [6]. - The trend of local state-owned assets frequently acquiring listed companies is noted, indicating a potential increase in state-owned components within manufacturing sectors [6]. Group 3: Plant Oil Pricing Dynamics - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. biofuel policy on plant oil pricing, highlighting the government's support for the sector and its implications for agricultural resilience [7]. - Key factors influencing plant oil pricing include the trajectory of crude oil prices and the production rates from Malaysia and Indonesia during the seasonal increase [7][8]. Group 4: OPEC+ Production Risks - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production significantly, with plans to raise daily output by 548,000 barrels in August, exceeding market expectations [12][15]. - The organization is set to complete the unwinding of a voluntary production cut of 2.17 million barrels per day, which may lead to deeper oversupply pressures in the oil market [15]. Group 5: Market Resilience of Caustic Soda - The resilience of caustic soda prices is attributed to the decline in liquid chlorine prices, which has raised production costs for caustic soda [17]. - A potential increase in demand for alumina could further support caustic soda prices, presenting a bullish outlook for this commodity [17]. Group 6: Long-term Commodity Price Trends - The article highlights the debate between being a path trader versus a terminal trader in commodity markets, emphasizing the need for a deep understanding of core pricing logic [18]. - Current economic conditions show a lack of significant technological advancements to drive growth, alongside constraints on fiscal policy, leading to a mid-term outlook of price fluctuations in commodities [20].