Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the Real World Assets (RWA) market, emphasizing the need for clear theoretical frameworks and regulatory guidelines to manage the associated risks and innovations [3]. Financial Function Perspective on RWA Market - RWA provides new financing channels for illiquid assets, addressing traditional financing challenges [5]. - It lowers investment barriers, allowing ordinary investors to access high-value projects previously available only to institutional investors [5]. - RWA initiators benefit from flexible financial management, improving asset-liability management [5]. - The market enhances transaction efficiency and transparency, enabling global access and reducing fraud risks [5]. - RWA contributes to the stability of on-chain financial activities by providing quality underlying assets for DeFi protocols [5]. Challenges in RWA Market Development - The complexity of modern financial markets increases risks associated with structured financial products [8]. - Historical asset securitization has evolved, but the combination of structured financial derivatives and securitization raises systemic risks [10]. - RWA encompasses both financial and non-financial assets, inheriting risks from traditional financial innovations [11]. Strategies for Healthy RWA Market Development - Identifying RWA-related risk characteristics is crucial, ensuring asset ownership clarity and value stability [13]. - Regulatory frameworks need to evolve, establishing a classification system based on asset attributes and market circulation [14]. - Standardization of RWA is essential, focusing on asset mapping, data interfaces, and regulatory compliance [15]. - Encouraging innovation that serves the real economy is vital, with a focus on high-value scenarios and sandbox testing mechanisms [16].

Core Viewpoint - A significant trade rebalancing is occurring globally, with domestic fiscal policy becoming a key driver of economic growth. This shift necessitates effective legal measures and a transparent debt disclosure system to prevent historical debt crises from recurring [2][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Rebalancing - The U.S. has imposed high import tariffs on other countries, marking a clear trend that began nearly a decade ago with the abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This trend has been exacerbated by the Trump administration's tariff measures and the Biden administration's industrial subsidies aimed at promoting domestic green industries [3]. - In response to U.S. tariff policies, regions like Europe and China are implementing stronger fiscal stimulus measures to boost domestic demand and reduce reliance on U.S. consumers and financial markets [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Measures in Crisis Response - Germany has amended its constitution to relax strict fiscal rules, launching a €1 trillion investment plan to increase spending in defense, infrastructure, research, digitalization, and climate protection [5]. - China is exploring various options to stimulate long-delayed domestic consumption, requiring structural reforms in social security, financial systems, and gender balance [5]. Group 3: Debt Constraints and Risks - Many governments are facing debt constraints, lacking sufficient resources to meet basic payment obligations and return to inflation targets. Low-income and emerging market countries are particularly at risk of debt crises [7]. - The global supply of dollar-denominated assets is contingent on U.S. fiscal capacity, which is currently under pressure from the debt ceiling crisis and uncertainties surrounding proposed U.S. budget plans [7]. Group 4: Fiscal Transparency and Supervision Mechanisms - Following the last debt crisis, developed countries undertook debt clean-up, while emerging economies engaged in debt restructuring. However, the world is once again facing the risk of a global debt crisis, raising questions about the effectiveness of oversight by institutions like the IMF and World Bank [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with sales, investment, and prices continuing to decline, leading to a shift in the sector's contribution to GDP from positive to negative [5][6][25]. Group 1: Current Market Status - The real estate market has experienced a deep adjustment since the second half of 2021, with key metrics such as sales area and sales revenue dropping to 60.4% and 56.9% of their 2021 peaks by 2024, respectively [8]. - By the first half of 2025, the sales area and revenue further declined to 57.6% and 50.9% of the same period in 2021, indicating a continued downward trend [11]. - The inventory of unsold properties has increased significantly, with a 47.6% rise in unsold area by 2024 compared to 2021 [8]. Group 2: Price Trends - New home prices in first- and second-tier cities showed signs of stabilization in late 2024 and early 2025, but began to decline again in the second quarter of 2025 [9]. - As of June 2025, new home prices fell by 3.7% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices dropped by 6.1%, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous periods [17]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP has shifted from a positive to a negative impact, with its value added decreasing from a peak of 9 trillion yuan in 2021 to a projected 6.3% of GDP in 2024 [25][26]. - Real estate investment accounted for approximately 20% of fixed asset investment, becoming the largest drag on overall investment growth [28]. - The construction industry, heavily reliant on real estate, has seen a significant reduction in employment, with nearly 13 million migrant workers leaving the sector from 2021 to 2024 [31]. Group 4: Fiscal Implications - Land sale revenues have declined sharply, affecting local government finances. In 2024, land sale revenues fell to 4.87 trillion yuan, down from a peak of 8.71 trillion yuan in 2021 [34][35]. - The reliance on land sale revenues for local government budgets has decreased from 35.9% in 2021 to 17.3% in 2024, limiting fiscal capacity [35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The real estate market is currently in a slow bottoming phase, with long-term demand supported by urbanization, population growth, and housing improvement needs [9]. - The transition from a high-growth model to a more stable one is ongoing, with the need to manage market adjustments carefully to prevent excessive price fluctuations [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - Artificial intelligence (AI) is emphasized as a strategic technology that shapes national core competitiveness and is crucial for global technological competition [4][5][6]. Group 1: Importance of AI - AI is recognized as a key driver of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, with significant implications for reshaping international dynamics [5]. - The development of AI is essential for China to overcome technological bottlenecks and achieve high-level self-reliance in technology, particularly in core technologies like high-end chips and foundational algorithms [6]. Group 2: Financial Support for AI - Financial support is identified as a catalyst for transitioning AI from technological breakthroughs to industrial prosperity [7]. - A multi-layered financial ecosystem, including long-term capital, patient capital, and strategic capital, is necessary to support AI development across various stages [8][9]. Group 3: Capital Requirements at Different Stages - The capital needs of AI development vary significantly across different stages, necessitating a robust financial support system tailored to these unique requirements [13]. - Long-term capital is crucial for foundational research, while patient capital is needed to facilitate the transition from laboratory results to prototype products [14]. Group 4: Building a Financial Support System - A comprehensive financial support system for AI innovation should include mechanisms for long-term capital supply, risk mitigation, and strategic investment incentives [12][13]. - The establishment of a national-level AI scenario verification center is proposed to enhance commercial viability and reduce financial institutions' risk assessment costs [15]. Group 5: Enhancing Capital Market Structures - The development of multi-layered capital markets is essential to provide continuous and substantial funding for mature AI enterprises, supporting their ongoing innovation and global competitiveness [11][12]. - Innovations in asset securitization and the establishment of specialized equity markets for AI are recommended to facilitate financing [15][16]. Group 6: Data and Cryptocurrency Integration - The integration of data asset financing and the development of cryptocurrency are suggested as means to enhance the financial infrastructure supporting AI [16][17]. - Establishing a secure and compliant data trading system is crucial for unlocking the financing potential of data assets [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework in response to rising inflation and the challenges posed by de-globalization, suggesting a move away from the Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) to a more explicit numerical inflation target to control inflation levels [4][7][12]. Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The post-globalization era has led to a significant increase in the inflation baseline in the U.S., with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showing an average increase of only 1.8% from 1994 to 2019, but this trend is changing [4]. - The Federal Reserve may abandon the AIT framework, which was designed to support inflation during low-inflation periods, in favor of a clear numerical inflation target to combat rising inflation levels [6][7]. - AIT has delayed the Fed's response to inflation, with the latest cycle showing a 12-month lag in response to inflation exceeding 2%, compared to an average of 5 months in previous cycles [7]. Group 2: Dollar Circulation and Fiscal Policy - The "dollar circulation" has been disrupted due to de-globalization, leading to reduced foreign investment in U.S. assets, which historically supported U.S. government debt [9][10]. - The Fed's quantitative policies need to align with the U.S. Treasury to prevent difficulties in issuing government bonds, especially as foreign demand for U.S. debt decreases [8][12]. - The potential for the Fed to restart regular bond purchases is highlighted, especially if 10-year Treasury yields approach 5%, indicating a need to stabilize the market [10][12]. Group 3: Financial Regulation and Stability - The article notes that the current financial stability concerns may lead the Fed to relax financial regulations, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), to increase demand for U.S. government bonds [13][14]. - The SLR rules, which limit banks' leverage, could be adjusted to allow for greater investment in U.S. Treasuries, thereby supporting the government's financing needs [13][14]. - The potential for a significant increase in U.S. government debt, driven by fiscal policies, necessitates a coordinated approach between monetary and fiscal policies to manage the rising debt levels effectively [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations in the face of complex economic challenges, highlighting eight key policy signals from the recent Central Political Bureau meeting [3][4]. Group 1: Understanding China's Economic Advantages - The meeting identifies four specific advantages of China's economy: the socialist system, a large market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources, which together create a composite advantage that can effectively respond to external uncertainties [5][6]. - China's unique system allows for centralized decision-making while also stimulating market vitality, enabling rapid resource mobilization during crises [5]. - The country has a population of 1.4 billion, over 400 million middle-income individuals, and a GDP per capita of around $12,000, with a significant number of highly educated individuals contributing to its competitive edge [6]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau meeting stresses the need to maintain a stable growth rate of over 4.5% to achieve long-term economic goals, with a target GDP growth of 5% for this year [8]. - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies, and the IMF has raised its growth forecast for China to 4.8% [7][8]. Group 3: Macro Policy Implementation - The meeting calls for the continued implementation of macroeconomic policies, including the issuance of long-term special government bonds and the use of new policy financial tools to enhance policy effectiveness [9][10]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of bonds and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and reduce financing costs [10][11]. Group 4: Stimulating Domestic Demand - The meeting highlights the need to implement actions to boost consumption, with retail sales growing by 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, contributing significantly to GDP growth [13][14]. - There is a focus on enhancing private investment and expanding effective investment, particularly in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors [15]. Group 5: Technological Innovation - The meeting emphasizes the importance of deepening reforms in the technology innovation system and fostering the integration of technological and industrial innovation [16][17]. - Policies will support the development of emerging industries with international competitiveness and enhance the financing channels for technology enterprises [17]. Group 6: Foreign Trade and Investment Stability - The meeting stresses the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, with exports growing by 6% year-on-year in the first half of the year [19][20]. - Policies will focus on expanding market access for foreign investment and enhancing the effectiveness of open platforms to attract foreign capital [21][22]. Group 7: Risk Management - The meeting underscores the importance of managing risks in key areas, particularly local government debt, and emphasizes the prohibition of new hidden debts [23][24]. - The ongoing process of local government debt resolution is expected to positively impact regional economic vitality [25]. Group 8: Capital Market Stability - The meeting aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, with significant improvements observed in the stock market since the second quarter [26][27]. - Continued macroeconomic support is expected to stabilize investor confidence and enhance the financing capabilities of enterprises [28].

Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The State Council has approved the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative, aiming to promote the large-scale commercial application of AI across various sectors, fostering a virtuous cycle of innovation and application [8] - The National Childcare Subsidy Scheme was announced, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for infants under three years old, starting from January 1, 2025 [6][7] - The central government plans to allocate approximately 90 billion yuan for the Childcare Subsidy Scheme, marking a significant step in direct cash benefits for the public [8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In July, China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [12][13] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were reported at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both remaining above the expansion threshold despite slight declines [12][13] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing growth, ensuring employment, and promoting livelihoods [10] - The central bank aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission and improve the efficiency of fund utilization, while also managing exchange rate stability [10] Group 4: U.S. Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for July showed a significant drop, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, and previous months' data was revised down by 258,000 [11] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%, the lowest in nearly three years, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [11]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, enhance financial services for structural transformation, and mitigate financial risks while promoting high-quality development [4][9]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has adopted a series of monetary policy measures, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, to ensure ample liquidity in the financial system [4]. - The focus is on maintaining a balance between social financing scale and economic growth expectations, with an emphasis on effective policy communication and guiding market expectations [9][10]. Group 2: Financial Support for Economic Transformation - The PBOC is enhancing financial services to support technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stable foreign trade, with specific measures such as establishing a "Technology Board" in the bond market [5]. - As of June, loans for technology, green projects, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and the digital economy have seen year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 25.5%, 12.3%, and 11.5% respectively [5]. Group 3: Risk Management - The PBOC has made significant progress in mitigating financial risks associated with local government financing platforms and is actively managing risks in key institutions and regions [6]. - A macro-prudential and financial stability committee has been established to enhance the financial stability framework [6]. Group 4: Financial Market Opening - The PBOC is advancing the construction of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and promoting the international use of the Renminbi, including the development of offshore Renminbi markets [6][11]. - Efforts are being made to facilitate cross-border payment systems and enhance the efficiency of trade-related Renminbi usage [10]. Group 5: International Financial Cooperation - The PBOC is deepening international financial cooperation and participating in global financial governance, including reforms in the International Monetary Fund [11]. - The establishment of annual meetings between the central bank governors of China and Europe is part of the strategy to enhance international collaboration [6]. Group 6: Internal Governance and Party Discipline - The PBOC is committed to strengthening internal governance and party discipline, emphasizing the importance of political construction and compliance with central regulations [8][12]. - Continuous efforts are being made to improve internal management and enhance the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) is facing unprecedented transformation pressures due to profound changes in the global economic and trade landscape, necessitating effective strategies for stability and development in the international trade system [3]. Group 1: Current Global Economic Landscape - The international political and economic landscape is undergoing deep restructuring, characterized by sluggish global economic growth, persistent high inflation, and low interest rates, which are suppressing trade [5]. - Increased geopolitical instability and intensified strategic competition among major powers are significantly impacting global supply chain stability and trade trust [5]. - Trade protectionism is resurging, with the U.S. implementing policies such as "nearshoring," "friend-shoring," and "manufacturing repatriation," leading to heightened fragmentation risks in trade and accelerated restructuring of global industrial and value chains [5]. Group 2: Regional Trade Agreements and Governance - The global economic governance system is accelerating its differentiation, with regional trade agreements (RTAs) like RCEP and CPTPP emerging as alternatives to the WTO multilateral rule system, diverting member countries' attention and resources [5]. - As of June 2025, the number of global RTAs has surged from 99 in 2000 to 619, with 375 currently in effect [5]. - The emergence of exclusive trade rules within regional agreements undermines the WTO's non-discrimination principle, complicating global trade dynamics [5]. Group 3: Increasing Trade Disparities - The U.S., once a proponent of the multilateral trade system, has shifted towards "America First" and "reciprocal trade" policies, undermining the WTO's multilateral tariff negotiation mechanisms [6]. - The EU faces increased internal coordination challenges and diminished influence, while emerging economies and global South countries are demanding a voice commensurate with their economic contributions, complicating trade rule negotiations [6]. - Rapid technological advancements are outpacing the development of trade rules, particularly in digital trade, artificial intelligence, and cross-border data flows, leading to increased regulatory friction and market uncertainty [6]. Group 4: Challenges Facing the WTO - The WTO's negotiation and dispute resolution mechanisms are under severe strain, with the Doha Round negotiations stalled and significant disagreements among major members on core issues like market access [7]. - The WTO's dispute resolution mechanism has been effectively paralyzed since 2019 due to the U.S. blocking the appointment of new judges, leading to a reliance on temporary arbitration arrangements that have limited scope and effectiveness [7]. - Major members are increasingly ignoring multilateral rules on tariff issues, resulting in a decline in the binding nature of trade rules and a fragmented international trade system [7]. Group 5: Shifts in Negotiation Topics - Developing countries are increasingly vocal about their demands for fair trade, technology access, and development space, while traditional issues like agricultural subsidies have been marginalized in multilateral negotiations [8]. - Developed countries, led by the U.S., are prioritizing emerging topics such as digital economy, industrial subsidies, and climate issues, creating significant divides with developing nations [8]. - The focus on new negotiation topics has intensified, with capital, labor, data flows, and environmental protection gaining prominence in WTO discussions [9]. Group 6: Power Dynamics in Trade Rule-Making - Emerging economies, particularly China, are gaining strength and actively participating in global rule-making, seeking to establish rules that reflect their interests [9]. - Developed economies are attempting to reshape multilateral trade rules amid crises, using concepts like "democratic values" and "high-standard labor rights" to exclude non-market economies, which increases the risk of WTO fragmentation [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the global economic order since the 1980s, highlighting the impact of globalization and free trade, the rise of "America First" ideology, and the challenges faced by China in this changing landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Globalization and Economic Order - Since the 1980s, globalization and free trade have formed the foundation of the current global economic order, driven by neoliberal reforms initiated by leaders like Reagan and Thatcher [3]. - The principle of "capital supremacy" underpins the liberal global economic order, advocating for the free flow of goods, technology, and capital across borders [3]. Group 2: Impact on American Society - While globalization has benefited the U.S. economy, the gains have been concentrated among multinational corporations and elite groups, leading to significant losses for the broader American populace [4]. - The closure of approximately 60,000 factories since 2001 has resulted in the loss of 4.8 million manufacturing jobs, exacerbating social inequalities [4]. Group 3: Political Response and Ideological Shift - The "America First" movement, associated with Trumpism, emerged as a reaction against the perceived failures of globalization, advocating for the interests of the working class and small businesses [4][6]. - Tariffs are viewed as a strategic tool to counteract the loss of comparative advantage in manufacturing, aiming to bring jobs back to the U.S. and stimulate economic growth [5]. Group 4: Biden Administration's Approach - The Biden administration has continued some of Trump's economic policies, reflecting the political reality that defending worker interests has become a central theme in American politics [9][10]. - Despite efforts to correct course, such as reducing tariffs, the Biden administration has faced challenges in reversing the trend of de-globalization [9][10].