Workflow
清华金融评论
icon
Search documents
盛松成等:通过税制改革提高地方政府促消费的积极性 | 宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-08-19 09:06
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption as a primary task for expanding domestic demand, highlighting the need for reform in the current tax system to incentivize local governments to promote consumption effectively [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Challenges - Local governments face significant financial constraints due to accumulated debt and a downturn in the real estate market, which hampers their enthusiasm for promoting consumption [3][4]. - The existing value-added tax (VAT) and consumption tax systems primarily based on the production location create a misalignment between tax revenue and consumption potential, limiting the release of consumption capacity [2][7]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Structure - In 2024, China's total tax revenue is projected to be 17.5 trillion yuan, with VAT contributing 6.67 trillion yuan (38%) and consumption tax contributing 1.65 trillion yuan (9%) [4]. - VAT is the largest contributor to local tax revenue, shared equally between central and local governments, while the consumption tax is expected to become a new source of incremental revenue for local governments as reforms progress [4][5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Reform - The article suggests reforming the VAT distribution mechanism to focus more on the consumption location, enhancing the precision of transfer payments to local governments [5][12]. - It advocates for accelerating the shift of consumption tax collection to the retail stage, promoting the development of emerging consumption sectors such as green, smart, and health-related industries [5][12]. Group 4: International Experience - The article draws lessons from international practices, particularly the EU's shift from a production-based to a consumption-based VAT system, which was driven by the need for a unified market and the evolution of cross-border trade [10][11]. - The U.S. sales tax system, which relies on state-level taxation and does not have a unified VAT, provides insights into how differentiated tax rates can guide consumer behavior and link tax revenues to public services [13][14]. Group 5: Enhancing Local Government Incentives - To improve local government incentives for promoting consumption, the article recommends optimizing the VAT distribution mechanism to ensure more accurate compensation for consumption areas [16][17]. - It also suggests adjusting consumption tax rates to encourage healthy and environmentally friendly consumption, while considering transitional measures to balance local interests during the reform process [17][18].
加强金融监管理论研究与人才培养,助力金融强国建设 | 政策与监管
清华金融评论· 2025-08-18 10:25
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strong financial regulation and talent cultivation as essential components for building a robust financial nation, highlighting their interdependence and foundational role in the financial system [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Strong Financial Regulation - Strong financial regulation is fundamental for the stability of financial institutions and the overall financial system, aiming to maintain the soundness of financial entities and enhance their resilience against economic shocks [3]. - Effective regulation serves as a foundational guarantee for the construction of a strong international financial center, attracting global financial institutions, capital, and talent through transparent and efficient oversight [3]. - The relationship between strong financial regulation and a powerful central bank is crucial for maintaining financial system stability, ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy, and safeguarding the credibility of the currency [3]. Group 2: Significance of Financial Talent - A strong talent pool is vital for the healthy development of the financial sector, as the competitiveness of the financial industry is directly determined by the quality of its talent [4]. - The unique characteristics of financial assets, such as their volatility and ease of transfer, contribute to the risks in the financial sector, which can be exacerbated by human error or technical failures [4]. - The ethical standards of financial professionals significantly impact the safety of financial assets, the stability of financial institutions, and the protection of consumer interests [4]. Group 3: Evolution of China's Financial System - China's financial system has gradually developed since the reform and opening-up in the late 1970s, with the regulatory framework adapting to market needs and evolving through practical reforms [5]. - The emphasis on the relationship between government and market, as highlighted in the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, marks a significant breakthrough in understanding market roles and guides the establishment of efficient and transparent financial regulation [5]. - Recent reforms, including the establishment of the Central Financial Committee, enhance centralized leadership over financial work, addressing issues of fragmented regulation seen in Western countries [5]. Group 4: Theoretical Research and Practical Implications - The dual challenges of market failure and regulatory failure are not unique to the financial sector, and in-depth research on financial regulation theory can inform broader regulatory practices across various fields [6]. - Issues such as information asymmetry and regulatory capture undermine government credibility and regulatory effectiveness, necessitating a focus on social oversight and accountability mechanisms [6]. - The article calls for the development of an independent financial regulatory theory system that aligns with the goals of building a strong financial nation, drawing from 40 years of reform and regulatory practice in China [6].
沪指今日盘中创近10年新高;央行把促物价合理回升作为把握货币政策重要考量|每周金融评论(2025.8.11-2025.8.18)
清华金融评论· 2025-08-18 10:25
Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) reached a nearly 10-year high on August 18, 2025, breaking the previous high of 3731.69 points set on February 18, 2021, with a closing increase of 0.85% to 3728.03 points and a trading volume exceeding 2.8 trillion yuan [4][5]. - The surge in the SHCI is attributed to three main drivers: significant inflow of new capital, supportive policies and institutional benefits, and strong performance in key sectors such as technology and finance [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy, aiming to prevent deflation risks and stimulate demand through appropriate monetary easing [7][9]. - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies aims to enhance consumer spending and support service sector businesses, reflecting a shift in fiscal and financial policy focus towards improving living standards and promoting consumption [6][7]. Group 3: International Trade and Energy - U.S. President Trump announced no plans to impose tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil, which alleviates trade tensions and stabilizes the global energy market, allowing China to secure its energy supply [6][9]. - The decision to delay tariffs is expected to reduce market uncertainties and prevent potential disruptions similar to those experienced during the 2024 U.S.-China trade conflict [6][9]. Group 4: Financial Statistics - As of July 2025, China's broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while narrow money supply (M1) increased by 5.6% [11]. - The social financing scale stood at 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, indicating a robust recovery in the economy and financial market [11].
生物多样性金融产品创新现状及规模化思考 | 宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-08-17 08:58
Core Viewpoint - The development of biodiversity finance in China is currently limited in scale and product variety, despite existing supportive policies and standards. The article emphasizes the need for innovative financial products to transition from initial offerings to scalable solutions, particularly through the case study of Quzhou City in Zhejiang Province, which is a pilot area for green finance reform [1][2]. Group 1: Current State of Biodiversity Finance - Biodiversity is recognized as the natural material basis for sustainable human production and living. The Chinese government has initiated strategic plans for biodiversity protection, including the "China Biodiversity Protection Strategy and Action Plan (2023-2030)" [2]. - The current market for biodiversity-related financial products, including credit, insurance, and bonds, is still in the exploratory phase and faces challenges in scaling up from initial innovations [4]. Group 2: Innovations in Biodiversity Credit - Biodiversity credit is essentially a subset of green credit, aimed at supporting projects or enterprises related to biodiversity [5]. - Notable international innovations include the first credit product incorporating natural capital impact assessments by Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in Japan, and the "Planet Impact Loan" by Rabobank and FrieslandCampina in the Netherlands, which rewards farmers for biodiversity contributions [7]. - In China, banks like the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank have initiated biodiversity-related loans, with examples including a loan of 189 million yuan for the maintenance of a scenic area and various biodiversity-themed loan products launched by local banks [8]. Group 3: Innovations in Biodiversity Bonds - The global market for biodiversity bonds is projected to reach nearly $300 billion by the end of 2024. Innovations in this area focus on repayment and interest structures [9]. - The International Finance Corporation issued the world's first forest green bond in 2016, which has seen significant growth in scale and flexibility in repayment options [9]. - Chinese financial institutions have also begun to explore biodiversity-themed green bonds, with notable issuances from Bank of China and Agricultural Development Bank of China [10]. Group 4: Innovations in Biodiversity Insurance - Biodiversity insurance products include traditional green insurance, catastrophe insurance, and wildlife liability insurance. Developed countries have established mature environmental liability insurance systems to support biodiversity protection [11]. - Recent innovations include the establishment of a coastal management trust fund in Mexico, which purchases insurance for coral reefs to fund restoration efforts after disasters [11].
全球关税:起源、演进历程及对财政的贡献|国际
清华金融评论· 2025-08-17 08:58
Core Viewpoint - Tariffs have re-emerged as a focal point in global economic and trade policies, particularly due to the rise of trade protectionism in the U.S. and the reevaluation of tariff policies by multiple countries amid geopolitical conflicts and fiscal pressures [5]. Summary by Sections Origin and Characteristics of Tariffs - Historically, tariffs originated as a form of transit fee for cross-border goods, primarily aimed at controlling the movement of people and goods, rather than for fiscal purposes [7]. - Tariffs have evolved from being a minor component of national fiscal systems to a crucial tool for economic intervention and revenue generation, especially since the 16th century with the rise of international trade [8][11]. Functions of Tariffs - Tariffs serve three main functions: revenue generation, protection of domestic industries, and economic regulation [11]. - The role of tariffs has shifted over time, influenced by economic development and prevailing economic ideologies, with their revenue-generating function becoming less significant in developed countries [12][19]. Evolution of Tariff Systems - The evolution of global tariff systems can be divided into five main stages from the 16th century to the present, reflecting changes in economic thought and development levels [13][14]. - **First Stage (16th-18th Century)**: Mercantilism dominated, with tariffs primarily used for revenue collection [15]. - **Second Stage (19th Century)**: The rise of free trade theories led to a reduction in tariffs in industrialized nations, while developing countries continued to rely on tariffs for revenue and protection [16]. - **Third Stage (Early 20th Century)**: Protectionism surged post-World War I, reinforcing tariffs as tools for revenue and industry protection [17]. - **Fourth Stage (Post-WWII to 2017)**: Establishment of a global free trade system led to a general decline in tariffs and a shift towards income and consumption taxes as primary revenue sources [18]. - **Fifth Stage (2018-Present)**: A resurgence of protectionism, particularly in the U.S., has seen tariffs used again for industry protection and economic regulation [19]. Dependency on Tariff Revenue - Global economies can be categorized based on their dependency on tariff revenue, with developed economies generally showing low dependency (below 3%), while some developing economies exhibit medium (3%-5%) or high dependency (over 5%) [20][23][26]. - Countries like Japan, Canada, and the U.S. have low tariff revenue contributions to their overall fiscal income, while nations like the Philippines show a high reliance on tariffs due to weaker tax systems [23][28].
葛小波:关于中国财富管理发展思路的思考|财富与资管
清华金融评论· 2025-08-16 09:31
Core Viewpoint - Enhancing wealth management service levels is essential for achieving "financial people's nature" and promoting long-term investment strategies, ultimately aiming to build investor trust through diversified asset allocation and improved service capabilities [2][3]. Group 1: Current State of Wealth Management in China - The wealth management business in China is still in its early stages, with significant room for growth, as the demand from clients is high but the supply of effective services is lacking [18][19]. - Chinese residents' wealth has rapidly accumulated, exceeding 600 trillion RMB, with property income growing at an annual rate of approximately 8.5% from 2015 to 2023 [19]. - Despite the growth in wealth, the allocation of assets in capital markets remains low, with less than 20% of total assets invested in these markets, indicating a need for improved financial services [19][20]. Group 2: Challenges in Wealth Management - The depth of buy-side advisory services is insufficient, with the scale of fund advisory services still far below the potential of the wealth management business [24]. - Financial institutions face challenges in team building, asset allocation capabilities, product creation, and service tools, which need significant improvement to enhance client satisfaction and service quality [24]. Group 3: Development Trends and Opportunities - The transformation of wealth management in China has begun, with many institutions shifting from transaction-based services to a focus on long-term asset preservation and growth [21][22]. - The introduction of fund advisory services has established a new type of relationship between securities companies and clients, with over 60 institutions now qualified to offer these services, managing assets exceeding 150 billion RMB [21]. - The future of wealth management in China is promising, as financial institutions are encouraged to adopt a client-centered service model, optimizing their operational strategies to support residents in preserving and growing their wealth [20][22].
黄益平:如何打破低价内卷?|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-08-16 09:31
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of brand development in the digital economy, highlighting two main paths: enhancing product quality and providing emotional experiences to consumers [1]. Group 1: Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - A significant challenge for the Chinese economy is to expand consumption, increase its share in GDP, and enhance its contribution to economic growth. Currently, only about 56 yuan out of every 100 yuan of GDP is used for consumption, which is approximately 20 yuan less than the international average [3]. - The low consumption ratio not only affects the quality of life but may also lead to oversupply and excess capacity issues. Additionally, there is a phenomenon of consumption downgrade, where the quality of consumer goods is declining [3]. Group 2: Quality Indicators and Market Dynamics - There is currently no effective indicator to reflect the quality of consumer goods. The CPI index has remained around -0.1%, which may indicate quality issues, but price does not always correlate with quality due to market supply and demand complexities [4][9]. - The "lemon market" concept by Nobel laureate George Akerlof illustrates the consequences of information asymmetry, where buyers focus on price rather than quality due to the difficulty in obtaining quality information [5]. Group 3: Solutions to Information Asymmetry - To address the lemon market problem, it is crucial to provide consumers with more information about product quality. This approach is applicable not only to the second-hand car market but also to other consumer goods, especially in e-commerce [6]. - A recent study developed two indices and a ranking system to inform consumers about brand quality and purchasing power, aiming to enhance the understanding of product quality alongside price [6][10]. Group 4: Brand Index Findings - The online consumer brand index in China has been slowly rising, indicating that consumption downgrade is not a universal phenomenon. Different industries show significant disparities in brand index values, with sectors like 3C, furniture, and beauty products having higher brand recognition compared to women's clothing [10][12]. - The average brand index is higher in new first-tier and second-tier cities compared to first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, suggesting regional differences in brand perception and consumer behavior [10][13]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Economic Implications - The study found that cities with a higher proportion of migrant workers tend to have a higher brand purchasing power index but a lower average brand index, indicating a complex relationship between labor demographics and consumer preferences [14][15]. - The research also highlights that cities with stable populations tend to have higher average brand indices, while those experiencing significant population outflows may struggle with brand recognition and consumer spending [15]. Group 6: Emerging Brands and Consumer Trends - The study identified several emerging brands that resonate with younger consumers, such as Pop Mart and products catering to pet care, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards quality and experience rather than just price [16]. - The overall conclusion stresses the need to focus on product quality information rather than solely on price signals, as brand importance is particularly pronounced in the digital economy [16].
中国首个再生金属衍生品(铸造铝合金期货和期权)上市的战略意义|资本市场
清华金融评论· 2025-08-15 09:30
Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first recycled metal derivatives, specifically casting aluminum alloy futures and options, marks a significant advancement in China's green finance market, providing a new perspective for risk management and supporting the development of the circular economy [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections Launch of Recycled Metal Derivatives - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has officially listed casting aluminum alloy futures and options, filling a gap in the domestic futures market for recycled metals [2][5]. - On the first trading day, the main contract closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, up 825 yuan/ton, a 4.49% increase from the listing price, with a total trading volume of 57,300 contracts and a transaction value of 11.01 billion yuan [5]. Industry Overview - Casting aluminum alloy, primarily made from scrap aluminum, is a key pathway for low-carbon transition, with energy consumption only 3%-5% of that of traditional electrolytic aluminum production [6]. - The carbon emissions from producing one ton of casting aluminum alloy are approximately 3.6% of those from electrolytic aluminum, saving 3.4 tons of standard coal and 22 tons of water [6]. - China's recycled aluminum production is expected to exceed 10 million tons in 2024 and reach over 18 million tons by 2030, with the new derivatives promoting standardized development in the industry [6]. Complete Aluminum Industry Chain - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options completes the risk hedging system for the aluminum industry, covering the entire supply chain from bauxite to recycled aluminum [7]. - Companies can now use these derivatives to manage risks associated with raw material costs and product price fluctuations, enhancing the resilience of the entire aluminum industry chain [7]. Green Finance and Risk Management - The emergence of casting aluminum alloy derivatives signifies a new phase in green finance, moving beyond traditional credit and bond products to include market-based pricing and risk hedging mechanisms [8][10]. - These derivatives allow companies to lock in costs for recycled materials and manage price volatility, thus enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness in the low-carbon economy [8][10]. Innovation in Green Financial Products - The derivatives market introduces innovative functions for green finance, transitioning from single financing tools to comprehensive risk management platforms [11]. - The development of structured financial products that combine futures with green indicators, such as carbon emissions and recycling rates, is encouraged [16]. Recommendations for Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are advised to expand their green finance product offerings and enhance competitive differentiation, particularly in the carbon market, where China's trading volume is significantly lower than that of the EU [16][18]. - Collaboration between banks and futures exchanges is essential to create a comprehensive risk management system that supports the green transition of the real economy [15][18].
稳定币发展前景与全球金融治理体系变革 | 政策与监管
清华金融评论· 2025-08-15 09:30
Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins have become a focal point in the global cryptocurrency market, attracting significant international attention due to their higher value stability compared to traditional cryptocurrencies and their advantages in transactions and cross-border payments, which may lead to transformative changes in the global financial governance system [1][3]. Group 1: Development Dynamics and Characteristics of Stablecoins - Since the launch of Tether's USDT in 2014, the global stablecoin market has evolved through various phases, including rapid expansion and subsequent stabilization. Citi Institute predicts that by 2030, the total outstanding supply of stablecoins will reach $1.6 trillion, potentially making stablecoin issuers one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds [3]. - Stablecoins are categorized into four main types based on their anchoring mechanisms: fiat-backed, crypto-backed, algorithmic, and commodity-backed. As of May 2025, fiat-backed stablecoins have a market capitalization exceeding $220 billion, accounting for over 90% of the market share [4]. - The market structure of stablecoins is characterized by a dominance of USD stablecoins, which had a market capitalization of approximately $242.7 billion as of May 2025, representing 99.78% of the total market. In contrast, Euro stablecoins are below $500 million, with other currencies like the Turkish Lira and Japanese Yen having less than 0.1% market share [6]. Group 2: Application Scenarios and Expansion - The potential for stablecoins in cross-border payment settlements is significant, with estimated settlement values of $3.7 trillion in emerging markets in 2023 and projected annual growth of $5.28 trillion. Circle's CPN (Circle Payments Network) aims to integrate stablecoin usage into various payment sectors, enhancing their application in global payments [7]. Group 3: Risk Characteristics and Regulatory Trends - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) highlights that stablecoins face systemic risks due to their reliance on volatile exchange rates, pre-paid cash issuance, and potential use in financial crimes. These factors hinder their ability to become a pillar of future monetary systems [9]. - Current regulatory frameworks, including the EU's MiCA, the U.S. GENIUS Act, and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, aim to address the risks associated with stablecoins. However, there are still regulatory gaps, particularly concerning non-fiat-backed stablecoins, and a lack of unified enforcement mechanisms [10].
刘元春:下半年经济怎么干?|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-08-14 10:21
Core Viewpoint - The economic development in China during the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%. However, structural issues remain severe, indicating potential uncertainties ahead [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Structural Issues - The GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year reflects a stronger-than-expected economic performance, but structural problems are still significant, as indicated by data from June [2][3]. - Investment remains crucial for stabilizing growth, as evidenced by the data from the first half of the year [7]. Group 2: Consumer Demand and Policy Measures - Expanding consumer demand is a strategic priority for China, which requires systemic adjustments rather than short-term stimulus measures. Key areas include ensuring residents' income, asset balance, and social security systems [5]. - Various policies have been introduced to support consumer spending, including subsidies for education and services for vulnerable groups, which are expected to continue in the second half of the year [6]. Group 3: Investment and Market Dynamics - The slowdown in real estate and private investment growth in June poses a significant challenge for the second half of the year. To counter this, measures to stimulate private investment and improve expected returns are being implemented [7]. - The government is focusing on enhancing the space for private investment and ensuring that the expected returns for private enterprises are safeguarded through fiscal and monetary policies [7]. Group 4: Market Competition and Innovation - The phenomenon of many companies not being profitable despite advancements in technology and industry upgrades highlights the need to address disordered competition and market chaos. This requires actions to ensure effective competition and sustainable profitability for enterprises [8]. - The initiative to combat "involution" is essential for optimizing market order and addressing the macroeconomic issues of low price levels and supply-demand imbalances [8]. Group 5: Foreign Trade and Investment Stability - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, acknowledging the changing landscape of international trade, particularly concerning U.S. tariff negotiations [9][10]. - The emergence of "black swan" events and extreme situations necessitates preemptive measures to mitigate potential impacts on foreign trade [11]. Group 6: Consumption Policies and Future Expectations - The "old-for-new" program has a total budget of 300 billion yuan, with over half already implemented in the first half of the year. The remaining budget is expected to expand in scope and variety, including new consumer goods and services [12]. - Future policies will focus on enhancing consumer potential and ensuring that consumption support measures are effective in the medium term [12]. Group 7: Risk Management and Urban Development - The emphasis on high-quality urban renewal indicates a shift in policy focus to address changing risk dynamics, particularly in the real estate sector, which is moving towards a new development model [13]. - The adjustment of real estate policies aims to reduce risks and promote stability in the market, reflecting a proactive approach to managing economic challenges [13].