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钱币是在特殊的历史背景和地理环境下产生的。西方最早的钱币是公元前 7世纪的小亚细亚琥珀金币。琥珀金本是金银合金原矿，其广布于小亚细 亚山区。琥珀金的合金特性可能是其成为最早的钱币材质的重要动因。战 争与大型建设增加了城邦对货币的需求，迫使当政者降低琥珀金币的含金 量。 货币是一般等价物，钱币则是特殊的一般等价物。钱币是在特殊的历史背景和地理环境下产生的。这一点恰好在西方钱币的起源之上得到了印证。西方最 早的钱币是公元前7世纪的小亚细亚琥珀金币（Electrum，亦称白金）。琥珀金本是金银合金原矿，其广布于小亚细亚山区。在钱币产生前，琥珀金锭就 曾充当爱琴海和东地中海北部地区的称量货币。在地中海地区，琥珀金就具有较好的流通性和较高的认可度。 文/ 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员 曾晨宇 琥珀金币为西方最早的钱币 1904年，考古人员在清理以弗所的阿耳忒弥斯神庙地基时发现了93枚琥珀金币，其打造时间下限是在公元前6世纪中叶。该窖藏的发现证明了西方最早的 钱币为琥珀金币。这些钱币图案丰富、雕刻精美，其中的素面无纹和帘席纹的发行时间较早，可上溯至公元前7世纪中叶。这些琥珀金币不仅有着各式图 案，而且也按 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the six core factors influencing stock market trends, focusing specifically on the capital market, which includes accelerated entry of insurance funds, a shift of household savings towards the stock market, active but controlled leverage funds, and a clear trend of foreign capital inflow [2][4]. Group 1: Capital Market Factors - Insurance funds are accelerating their entry into the market, with equity investment scale surpassing 4.7 trillion yuan as of August 22, 2025, an increase of 622.3 billion yuan from the end of last year. The current allocation ratio is only 20.1%, significantly below the regulatory cap of 50% [5]. - Household savings are beginning to shift towards the stock market, with a reduction of 1.1 trillion yuan in household deposits in July 2025, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan. This indicates a signal of fund activation [6]. - Leverage funds are active but with manageable risks, as the margin trading balance reached 2.048 trillion yuan as of August 14, 2025, the highest since July 2015, but with a lower leverage ratio of 80% compared to 50% in 2015 [6]. Group 2: Foreign Capital Inflow - There is a clear trend of foreign capital inflow, with northbound trading daily average turnover exceeding 200 billion yuan in July, a 36% increase month-on-month, and a net inflow of 2.7 billion USD for the month [7]. - Global allocation adjustments are occurring, as indicated by Federal Reserve Chair Powell's remarks on potential interest rate cuts, which may weaken the dollar and attract foreign investment into Chinese assets [7]. Group 3: Long-term Market Implications - If the A-share market can establish a "long bull slow bull" trend, it will significantly impact the Chinese economy and society by activating consumer momentum and enhancing economic recovery through wealth effects [9]. - A stable market environment will empower technological innovation and industrial upgrades by broadening financing channels for tech companies, supporting R&D investments [10]. - It will accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi, creating a closed loop of "trade-investment" in renminbi, making A-shares a core asset for foreign institutions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to improve China's basic pension insurance system to better meet the expectations of residents and enhance consumption capacity, addressing issues such as low benefit levels, regional disparities, and sustainability concerns [4]. Summary by Sections Current Status of Basic Pension Insurance System - China has established a three-pillar pension system over 70 years, with the basic pension insurance as the foundation, supplemented by enterprise annuities and personal savings [6]. - As of the end of 2024, the coverage of basic pension insurance has reached 1.07 billion people, with a participation rate of 95%, achieving the "14th Five-Year Plan" target ahead of schedule [6]. - The basic pension benefits have been increasing, with urban employee pensions experiencing "twenty consecutive increases" and rural residents' basic pensions growing by 1.6 times over the past decade [7]. Issues Facing the Basic Pension Insurance System - **Insufficient Benefit Levels**: The average monthly pension for urban residents is only 246 yuan, below the rural minimum living standard of 594 yuan [13]. The pension replacement rate for urban employees has decreased to 52%, down 8.7 percentage points since 2018, falling below the International Labour Organization's recommended minimum of 55% [15]. - **Inequality in Benefits**: There are significant disparities in pension benefits among different groups, with urban residents receiving an average of 223 yuan, while enterprise retirees receive 3,271 yuan, and civil servants receive 6,243 yuan [16]. The fiscal subsidies also vary greatly, with urban employees receiving much higher per capita subsidies compared to rural residents [17]. - **Sustainability Concerns**: The pension system heavily relies on fiscal subsidies, with the subsidy amount increasing from 1.2 trillion yuan in 2018 to 1.8 trillion yuan in 2023, accounting for 25.7% of total pension expenditures [23]. The actual contribution rate is low, with the average monthly social security contribution being 1,175 yuan, leading to a significant gap between nominal and actual rates [26]. Recommendations for Improvement - **Enhancing Pension Benefits**: Propose a "State-Owned Capital-Finance-Social Security" linkage reform to increase the pension benefits for rural residents to at least the rural minimum living standard, which could require an additional 800 billion yuan annually [33]. - **Equalizing Fiscal Subsidies**: Suggest gradually reducing the disparity in fiscal subsidies across different groups to ensure a more equitable distribution of pension benefits [34]. - **Stabilizing Contribution Base**: Recommend lowering nominal contribution rates while ensuring compliance with actual contribution levels to enhance the sustainability of the pension system [35]. - **Accelerating National Coordination**: Emphasize the need for a national coordination system for pension insurance to address the challenges posed by population mobility and to balance the responsibilities between central and local governments [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the global economy is slowly recovering, and China's economic growth has solid support for stability in the second half of the year, with a moderate rebound in price levels and increasing positive factors [1][3]. Group 1: International Economic Situation - The global economy is showing signs of slow recovery, with developed economies experiencing persistent price stickiness. The second quarter saw a notable rebound in the US economy, but inflation in some economies remains above target levels, leading to concerns about fiscal sustainability due to high public sector debt and high-interest rates [3]. - The uncertainty in the economic recovery process continues, compounded by the impact of US tariff policies and potential volatility in international financial markets [3]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Situation - China's economic growth in the second half of the year is supported by new growth drivers, continuous expansion of total demand, and more proactive macro policies. The report highlights that the construction of a unified national market and regulation of low-price competition will positively impact reasonable price recovery [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of financial support for consumption, focusing on improving the supply of high-quality services, which is crucial for enhancing consumer spending [4][5]. Group 3: Development of Service Consumption - The report discusses the significance of developing service consumption as a means to enhance public welfare and stimulate consumption. It notes that as income levels rise, the consumption structure shifts from goods to services, with China's service consumption share currently at 46%, indicating substantial growth potential [5][9]. - Key issues in developing service consumption include insufficient supply in high-demand areas such as elderly care and childcare, the need for improved service quality, and challenges in profitability for service providers [9][10]. Group 4: Financial Policy and Support - The report outlines that future financial policies will focus on increasing the supply of high-quality service consumption, with an emphasis on credit support for service sector enterprises. Recent policies have aimed at stimulating consumption from the demand side, while future efforts will prioritize supply-side enhancements [10][19]. - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of credit structures, with approximately 70% of new loans directed towards key sectors, including technology and consumption [12][15]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for careful implementation of monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing credit support rather than aggressively increasing credit volume. It aligns with previous statements on maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy while preventing fund misallocation [19][20]. - The report also discusses the importance of enhancing the credit system for small and medium-sized enterprises, indicating that while financing conditions have improved, further enhancements are necessary to support these businesses effectively [17][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consolidating and expanding the positive momentum of economic recovery in China, with a focus on achieving annual economic and social development goals through effective macroeconomic policies and stimulating domestic demand [6][7]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the need to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy implementation, assess policy impacts, and stabilize market expectations [6]. - Key strategies include strengthening domestic circulation, stimulating consumption, increasing effective investment, and promoting the construction of a unified national market [6][7]. - The government aims to release demand in the real estate market and improve living conditions through urban renewal and renovation projects [6]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment - The State Council's recent meeting confirmed the significant effectiveness of the "Two New" policies in stabilizing investment, expanding consumption, and promoting transformation [7][8]. - From April 2024 to July 2025, the total investment driven by equipment updates is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, with a 7.3% year-on-year increase in machinery and equipment procurement [8]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has led to over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales, with retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment increasing by 22%-30% [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential shift towards interest rate cuts if economic conditions change, marking a significant policy stance [9]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen above 90%, with projections of cumulative cuts of 75-100 basis points by 2025 [9]. Group 4: Personal Pension Reforms - New regulations effective September 1 will lower the threshold for accessing personal pensions, allowing for more diverse withdrawal scenarios [10][11]. - The changes aim to alleviate the financial burden of medical expenses and support individuals facing unemployment or living on minimum income [10][11]. Group 5: Investment Environment for Foreign Investors - The central bank plans to simplify the investment process for foreign investors entering the Chinese market, enhancing the overall investment environment [12]. Group 6: Growth in Computing Power - The China Computing Conference forecasts a growth of over 40% in the country's intelligent computing power by 2025, indicating a significant expansion in digital infrastructure [13]. - The integration of intelligent computing with cutting-edge technologies like quantum computing is expected to enhance China's global competitiveness in the digital economy [13].

Group 1 - The core theme of the event is "Embracing AI Technology Transformation, Serving the Real Economy - Enhancing Financial Quality and Efficiency to Support High-Quality Economic Development" [3][10] - The event will feature the release of the "China Banking Industry Top 200 Ranking" and "Outstanding Cases of Innovation in the Banking Industry," providing insights into the latest industry trends and best practices [5] - The event aims to create a multi-dimensional communication platform for the banking industry, facilitating cross-sector collaboration and innovative synergy [4] Group 2 - The event will gather top experts from policy regulation, senior bankers, and scholars in banking research to deeply interpret and discuss pressing domestic and international topics in the banking sector [6] - There will be in-depth discussions on banking operational logic, focusing on five key areas: fintech, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, to derive practical methodologies for serving national strategic initiatives [7] - The event will include expert insights on the application, challenges, and future landscape of artificial intelligence in core banking scenarios such as risk control, marketing, operations, and product innovation [8] Group 3 - The event is organized by Tsinghua University Wudaokou School of Finance and will take place on August 28, 2025, in Beijing [10][12] - A diverse range of banking institutions will participate, including policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, foreign banks, and private banks [12] - The agenda includes keynote speeches, high-level dialogues, and thematic forums, culminating in the award ceremony for the "Outstanding Cases of Innovation in the Banking Industry" and the "Tsinghua Financial Review Zijing Award" [13]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese commercial banks are committed to high-quality development amidst a complex macro environment, maintaining stable operations, enhancing capital strength, and achieving steady growth in profitability while managing risks effectively [1][2]. Group 1: Current Challenges and Opportunities - The pressure on interest margins is a significant challenge faced by commercial banks, while there remains substantial growth potential in retail banking, particularly in product management and wealth management [1][2]. - The Central Financial Work Conference emphasizes the importance of technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, marking digital finance as a key focus area for future development [2]. Group 2: Digital Financial Transformation - The application of emerging technologies is reshaping financial service scenarios, leading to a shift towards customer-centric, comprehensive financial solutions that cater to diverse consumer behaviors and preferences [5]. - Commercial banks should focus on five business objectives: digital scenarios, digital products, digital channels, digital operations, and digital risk control to leverage technology effectively [6][7][8][10]. Group 3: Financial Technology Applications - In digital scenarios, banks can collaborate with external institutions to provide personalized financial services through mobile banking and open banking, covering various aspects of customers' daily lives [6]. - For digital products, banks can create differentiated product lines based on customer characteristics and integrate blockchain technology for supply chain financing [7]. - Digital channels should be integrated to ensure seamless customer experiences across various platforms, enhancing service continuity and convenience [8]. Group 4: AI Empowerment in Financial Services - AI technologies can enhance service capabilities in various areas, including smart remote banking, smart operations, smart marketing, smart risk control, and smart office [11][12]. - In smart marketing, AI can assist customer managers in generating marketing strategies and improving customer engagement through personalized services [12]. - The integration of AI in risk control can enhance the accuracy and comprehensiveness of risk assessments, thereby improving overall risk management [12]. Group 5: Conclusion and Future Directions - The ongoing application of financial technology and AI can significantly improve the quality and efficiency of financial services provided by commercial banks, enabling them to offer superior service experiences to customers [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and future prospects of China's currency exchange rate reform, emphasizing the importance of marketization in the exchange rate system and the need to overcome "floating fear" to achieve a fully market-oriented exchange rate [1][18]. Summary by Sections Exchange Rate Reform Background - On August 11, 2015, the People's Bank of China announced improvements to the RMB/USD exchange rate quotation mechanism to enhance marketization [2]. - The initial phase of the reform faced significant challenges, including capital outflows and a decline in foreign reserves, leading to a depreciation of the RMB [2]. - By the end of 2016, the RMB exchange rate had fallen to around 7, with foreign reserves nearing a critical level of $3 trillion [2]. Marketization as a Key Theme - Marketization is identified as the main thread of the exchange rate reform, with the consensus that the mechanism is more important than the level of the exchange rate itself [3][4]. - The reform is seen as a continuation of the market-oriented exchange rate formation mechanism established since the 1994 exchange rate reform [4]. Historical Context of Exchange Rate Mechanism - Prior to the 1994 reform, China had a dual exchange rate system, which transitioned to a managed floating exchange rate system [5][6]. - The exchange rate reform in 1994 was not solely about depreciation but was also influenced by broader financial reforms, including the introduction of an export tax rebate system [5]. Exchange Rate Trends and Performance - Since the 1994 reform, the RMB has appreciated significantly against major currencies, with a nominal appreciation of 21.5% by July 2025 compared to early 1994 [7]. - The RMB's nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and real effective exchange rate (REER) have also shown substantial appreciation, ranking high among 57 currencies [7]. Equilibrium Exchange Rate Concept - The concept of an equilibrium exchange rate is discussed, indicating that it is difficult to define and measure accurately [9]. - Historical examples illustrate that the RMB has often defied expectations regarding its valuation, such as during the 1994 and 2005 reforms [10]. Current Exchange Rate Dynamics - Recent trends show that the RMB's REER has depreciated, raising questions about whether it is undervalued or overvalued based on trade surpluses and domestic economic conditions [11]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified the RMB as one of the currencies that is stronger than its fundamental equilibrium level [12]. Future Outlook and Challenges - The article emphasizes that the marketization of the RMB exchange rate is still ongoing, with increasing awareness of exchange rate risks and the need for further reforms [18]. - The flexibility of the exchange rate policy has improved, allowing it to act as a buffer against internal and external shocks, but it also faces challenges from market sentiment and potential over-adjustments [17].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the global central bank meeting indicate a potential shift in monetary policy, suggesting that if economic risks change, adjustments may be necessary. This has led to a market expectation of over 90% probability for a rate cut in September [2][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Shift Signal - Powell emphasized that the current policy rate is in a restrictive zone, providing room for potential rate cuts. He noted that the balance of risks regarding employment is shifting downward, indicating a fragile equilibrium in the labor market [5]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Powell acknowledged that tariffs have raised prices for some goods, with the core PCE inflation rising 2.9% year-on-year in July. However, he views this as a one-time shock rather than a persistent inflation issue. He warned of two risks: prolonged tariff adjustments and the potential for inflation expectations to become unanchored, leading to a wage-price spiral [5]. Economic Data Weakness - U.S. GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024, with consumer spending significantly weakening. Non-farm payroll growth dropped to an average of 35,000 in July, down from 168,000 previously. Although the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, the risk of layoffs is increasing [5]. Monetary Policy Framework Adjustment - The Fed has abandoned the average inflation targeting framework established in 2020, returning to a flexible inflation target approach. This new framework emphasizes a balanced dual mandate of employment and inflation, with no preset policy path, relying entirely on data [5]. Beneficial Assets from Rate Cuts - A potential rate cut by the Fed is expected to benefit several asset classes: - **Equities**: Particularly technology and growth stocks, which are sensitive to interest rates, such as Tesla and Nvidia. The expectation of rate cuts may also lead to increased capital inflows into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and other metals are likely to rise as a lower dollar index boosts their prices. This includes commodities like copper and aluminum, which have both industrial and monetary attributes [7]. - **Cryptocurrencies**: Bitcoin and Ethereum are anticipated to experience upward trends due to increased liquidity and heightened risk appetite among investors [7].