上周公布的经济、就业和通胀新报告加剧了美联储面临的困境。 GDP报告显示， 美国经济在 2025年初出现三年来的首次萎缩 ，这主要归因于进口商为了赶在特朗普总统关税生效前抢购； 上周五公布的4月就业报告 也显示，即使在特朗普"解放日"声明震动市场后的几周内，劳动力市 场依然保持韧性。 以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 在美联储本周再次召开议息会议之际， 它面临的最大问题是如何努力应对关税引发的粘性通胀与 经济放缓之间的"拉锯战"，以及一位想要更宽松货币政策的美国总统 。 美联储对于这个困境的解决方式，可能意味着美国未来几个月的利率走向。 美国总统特朗普近几周已明确表达了他的观点：他希望在经济可能因其贸易政策放缓之前降息。 他对美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎态度不满 ，鲍威尔曾表示，美联储将"等待更明朗的情况"，同时权 衡其稳定物价和充分就业的双重使命。他上月表示，经济在"今年剩余时间，或者至少不会取得 太大进展"的情况下，将极有可能偏离美联储的两个目标。 美联储偏好的通胀指标显示， 3月物价年化增长率放缓至2.6% ...

一年一度的投资盛典终于落幕，巴菲特今年是美国前20大富豪里面，唯一年内取得正收益的 超级富豪。每当熊市来临，巴菲特都会被捧上神坛。 我们先来回顾下，巴菲特在今年一季度的财报，这对我们判断接下来到底是熊市还是牛市， 应该有相当大的帮助： 今年一季度，伯克希尔未进行股票回购。从2024年三季度开始，伯克希尔就暂停了股票回购 操作。 除了继续购买美国短期国债外，伯克希尔在一季度也在继续抛股票。 财报显示，伯克 希尔在今年一季度总共出售价值47亿美元的证券，实现投资利润3.71亿美元。 伯克希尔核心持仓覆盖金融（美国运通、美国银行）、科技（苹果）、能源（雪佛龙）、消 费品（可口可乐）等领域，多元化布局有效分散宏观波动风险。尽管短期业绩受市场波动及 投资损益影响，但其长期价值投资策略仍为市场所认可。 特别值得一提的是， 伯克希尔今年前三个月依然处于囤积现金的模式，截至2025年一季度 末，伯克希尔持有的现金、现金等价物以及短期国债总额进一步升至3477亿美元 ，去年末的 数字为3342亿美元，再次创下历史新高。在财报中，该公司也一再表达了对当前市场不确定 的担忧。 通过配置行业头部企业，伯克希尔在巩固防御属性的同时，亦 ...

这说明，H100以及更广泛的Hopper系列产品的需求已不如以往。事实上，H100的库存水平可能更 高，这意味着SMCI无法下架H100，并因此受到冲击，其毛利率也将大幅下降220个基点。 那么，让我们来看看这告诉我们什么。 S M C I 知 名 度 较 差 作者 | Tech Stock Pros 超微电脑公司（ Super Micro Computer, Inc.，纳斯达克股票代码：SMCI）周三股价暴跌，盘前交易 中暴跌17%，收盘下跌11%，此前该公司周二盘后公布了初步业绩。 该公司遭遇了服务器行业的最新打击，每股收益0.29美元至0.32美元，几乎是预期0.54美元的一半， 营收为45亿美元至46亿美元，比预期的55亿美元低了约10亿美元。以下是管理层的解释： 在第三季度，一些延迟的客户平台决策将销售转移到第四季度……由于老一代产品导致库存储备 较高。 早在二月份，SMCI 就将其 2025 财年（截至 6 月 30 日）的销售额预期从 260 亿美元下调至 300 亿 美元，降至 235 亿美元至 250 亿美元。 首席执行官表示，预计公司的液体冷却业务将在未来 12 个月内继续表现良好，这将使 ...

以下文章来源于金十数据 ，作者金十数据 金十数据 . 金十数据官方服务号。汇聚金融投资行业的各类数据和资讯，数据资讯快、准、全。 美国经济究竟只是暂时因关税陷入低迷，还是正走向更具破坏性的长期下行趋势？ 美国劳工部北京时 间周五20:30发布4月就业报告时，或许能给出一些线索。 根据共识预测，经济学家预计非农就业人数将增加13万，与3月的22.8万相比大幅下滑。不过，这一数 字仅略低于今年前三个月15.2万的平均水平，而且可能足以让失业率维持在4.2%左右，低于美联储对 2025年失业率的中位数预测（4.4%）。 不过，赞迪和其他经济学家表示，金融市场或许要做好失望的准备。 他特别关注非农就业人数增长低 于10万的情况，他预计这种情况会让市场弥漫悲观情绪。 他说："如果这个数字是10万或者更低，那我觉得就得小心了。届时，其他所有数据也将变得更为重 要，人们会下调预期。今天可能会是艰难的一天。" 数据喜忧参半 本周，投资者不得不消化一系列经济数据：第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）数据年化收缩0.3%，美国 自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布的私营部门就业数据疲弱，劳工部报告显示职位空缺大幅减少、失业申 请增加，此外通 ...

作者 | Danil Sereda 随着时间的推移，我们可以看到Palantir的业务确实正在好转——新的收入来源和不断增长的人工智 能需求带来了强大的协同效应，打破了看跌者的论点（包括我自己的论点）。我在2023年12月对 PLTR的评级变为中性，并在股价不断创下新高期间一直保持中性： 由于最近美国股市波动加剧，Palantir 的反弹相当平静：在今年 2 月底从每股 125 美元的历史高点回调至 4 月初每股 65.38 美元的局部低点后，PLTR 目前正试图再次稳定在每股 120 美元以上，似乎计划在 5 月份再 创历史新高。 尽管 PLTR 的实力显而易见，但我现在还是要谨慎。众所周知，PLTR 是一只"持续高估"的股票，但除此之 外，今年（以及 2026 年）美国公司资本支出可能下降，这可能会损害其 AIP 和整个美国商业部门的目标增 长率。由于这些是过去的主要增长动力，而且市场预期被过度夸大，在我看来，在 Palantir 2025 财年第一季 度业绩公布前买入其股票风险过高。 标 题 但上述等式的第一部分——营收增长——很大程度上应该伴随着非常强劲的美国经济。虽然在新冠疫情爆发 后的过去几年里情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market reaction to DeepSeek's rise should not lead to the unreasonable selling of Nvidia stocks, as the situation is not as dire as perceived [1]. Group 1: Market Perception and Competition - Prior to the release of DeepSeek's R1 model, there was a widespread belief that China lagged significantly behind the US in AI, with Eric Schmidt stating a 2-3 year lead for the US due to chip bans and investment disparities [2]. - DeepSeek's previous models failed to gain traction, but the R1 model demonstrated that advanced models could be developed using older GPUs, which could lead to increased GPU demand due to wider AI adoption [3]. - Nvidia's sales distribution shows that only 47% of its revenue comes from the US, indicating the importance of other regions like Singapore, which serves as a billing hub rather than a primary shipping destination [6][7]. Group 2: Risks and Developments - The ban on Nvidia's H20 and A100 chips for China poses a risk, as DeepSeek reportedly owns around 10,000 A100 chips, acquired through significant investments from the High-Flyer Quant Fund [9]. - China is investing heavily in developing its own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, which could potentially account for about 20% of Nvidia's sales if successful [10]. - DeepSeek is reportedly using Huawei's Ascend 910B chips for its upcoming R2 model, which could disrupt Nvidia's market position if confirmed [12][15]. Group 3: Future Implications - If DeepSeek announces the use of Huawei chips for R2, it could lead to a significant drop in Nvidia's stock price, similar to the reaction following the R1 release [16]. - The potential for Nvidia's stock to decline is high, given the current market dynamics and the possibility of DeepSeek's shift to local chip suppliers [17].

Core Viewpoint - Spotify's Q1 2025 earnings report revealed lower-than-expected revenue and profit guidance, leading to a significant drop in stock price due to high valuation concerns [2][12]. Revenue and Profitability - The primary reason for the stock decline was the Q1 revenue miss, with Q2 revenue guidance set at €4.2 billion, below market expectations of €4.38 billion [3][4]. - Q2 revenue growth is projected at only 13%, significantly lower than the previously anticipated 20% growth, raising market concerns [4]. - Despite the revenue miss, Q1 operating profit reached €510 million, a 203% year-over-year increase, with a profit margin of 12% [7][10]. User Metrics and Pricing Strategy - The key factor for the revenue shortfall was a lower-than-expected Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU), which grew only 3.9% year-over-year, below the market's 5% expectation [5]. - Q1 saw a net addition of 5 million subscribers, exceeding guidance, primarily driven by growth in Latin America and Europe [5]. - The company adopted a one-price strategy in emerging markets, which improved user conversion but limited short-term ARPPU growth [5]. Advertising and Content Strategy - Q1 saw significant growth in ad-supported user numbers, contributing to an increase in advertising revenue and gross margin [6]. - Spotify's recent contract renewals with major labels have led to higher demands regarding traffic distribution, potentially impacting subscription gross margins [6]. Operational Efficiency - Operating expenses, including R&D and sales, showed a year-over-year decline, indicating improved operational efficiency [6]. - The company is leveraging AI to enhance user experience and internal efficiency, which may accelerate product development [6]. Cash Flow and Investment - Q1 free cash flow reached €534 million, doubling year-over-year and accounting for 13% of total revenue [8]. - As of the end of Q1, Spotify had accumulated nearly €8 billion in cash and short-term investments, with plans to seek investment opportunities while considering shareholder returns [9]. Market Valuation and Future Outlook - The market's valuation of Spotify has been heavily reliant on the expectation of sustained 20% growth, with current valuations suggesting a forward EV/EBITDA of nearly 40x for 2026 [12]. - Despite the Q1 performance, the long-term outlook remains positive due to improved market penetration and enhanced bargaining power in the industry [12]. - The company is viewed as a quality long-term investment, although it is suggested that a favorable entry price is essential for potential investors [13].

Core Viewpoint - PayPal is considered undervalued despite its strong growth potential in the fintech sector, with a conservative balance sheet and significant increases in earnings, revenue, and free cash flow compared to its stock price performance [2][3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, net revenue grew by 1% to $7.8 billion, with a 2% increase when adjusted for currency fluctuations [3]. - Transaction margin increased by 7% to $3.7 billion, while TM dollars, excluding customer balance interest, also rose by 7% to $3.4 billion [3]. - GAAP operating income surged by 31% to $1.5 billion, and non-GAAP operating income grew by 16% to $1.6 billion [3]. - GAAP operating margin expanded by 447 basis points to 19.6%, and non-GAAP operating margin increased by 257 basis points to 20.7% [3]. - GAAP EPS rose by 56% to $1.293, while non-GAAP EPS increased by 23% to $1.33 [3]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Despite market contractions, PayPal's revenue and profit metrics continue to grow, challenging perceptions of it being a declining tech company [5]. - The company anticipates non-GAAP EPS for Q2 to be between $1.29 and $1.31, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.21 [5]. - PayPal's focus on expanding its brand payment and BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) services is expected to drive growth, especially as consumer spending shifts towards essential goods [7][17]. Competitive Landscape - PayPal's valuation remains low compared to peers like Fiserv, Block, and Fidelity National Information Services, with a forward P/E ratio of 13.4 and cash flow multiple of 8.52 [14]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing trend of digital payments, particularly among younger consumers who prefer digital transactions over traditional credit card payments [17]. Balance Sheet Strength - PayPal maintains a strong balance sheet, with cash and equivalents exceeding long-term debt, indicating resilience against severe downturns [13]. - The company's debt is only 1.46 times its EBITDA, reflecting a solid financial position that allows for potential risk-taking in future investments [13].

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported strong earnings, reinforcing its position as a high-quality company heavily investing in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure, with expectations of accelerated free cash flow growth post FY2025 [2][21]. Performance Overview - For Q3 FY2025, Microsoft achieved revenue of $70.06 billion, a 13.2% increase, exceeding market expectations by $1.62 billion; diluted EPS grew 19% to $3.46, also above the expected $3.22 [4]. - Operating income reached $32 billion, up 16%, with Azure leading growth at a 33% revenue increase [4][6]. - Microsoft Cloud revenue grew 22% year-over-year, with Azure maintaining over 30% growth quarter-over-quarter [4]. Free Cash Flow - Operating cash flow increased from $31.917 billion to $37.044 billion, while free cash flow slightly declined from $20.965 billion to $20.299 billion due to high capital expenditures [10]. - Management anticipates free cash flow to rise again after FY2025 as capital expenditure growth slows [11]. Capital Expenditure Insights - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $16.745 billion, with about half allocated to long-term assets related to cloud computing and AI [12]. - CFO Amy Hood indicated that capital expenditure growth will slow post-FY2025, focusing more on short-term assets [12]. Valuation and Market Position - The stock is currently trading at approximately $424, with a TTM adjusted EPS of $12.94 and a P/E ratio of 32.8, which is considered reasonable compared to historical levels [14]. - Despite concerns about high valuation, Microsoft is viewed as a safe investment in the AI growth sector, supporting its current P/E ratio [14][16]. Future Projections - For Q4, Azure is expected to grow by 34-35%, with total revenue projected between $73.15 billion and $74.25 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 13.9% [15]. - The target price for FY2026 is set around $500, based on an expected adjusted EPS of $15.04 and a P/E ratio of 32.8, indicating a potential upside of 16.3% [19][20].

作者 |Piotr Kasprzyk 尽管大部分分析师给予优步 ( NYSE: UBER ) 的评级为"强力买入"。但我依旧觉得优步不值得入手。 比 尔 · 阿 克 曼 效 应 2025年2月7日，华尔街著名人物比尔·阿克曼宣布，他已在优步（Uber）增持了20亿美元股票。这一消息起到了催化剂的作用，一度推高了股 价。尽管比尔·阿克曼是一位受人尊敬的投资者，也是投资界许多人敬仰的人物，但在长期买入并持有股票方面，他并非最可靠的投资者。 他在加拿大太平洋堪萨斯城有限公司（CP）的持仓并非一项回报丰厚的投资。他于2021年底开始投资。当然，时间还不够长，不足以做出判断。然而 委婉地说，这是一家增长非常缓慢的公司。自最初购买以来，股价一直没有上涨。 Netflix（NFLX）可能是他近年来最著名的收购案。然而，这笔收购最终以失败告终。比尔·阿克曼以平均416.3美元的价格收购了该公司，并以 平均221.7美元的价格出售了全部股份，最终亏损了46.7%。 过 于 乐 观 的 预 测 Uber 在其 2024 年第四季度补充数据中自豪地表示，自动驾驶仅在美国就能占据超过 1 万亿美元的市场份额。 对于那些因为管理层有最 ...