诚然，中国市场在2024年仍然贡献了171亿美元的销售收入，这部分收入相当可观。但从目前的 整体情况来看，这只是一个很小的部分。世界其他地区（根据目前的ADR，其他第三组国家/地 区也属于这些地区）的贡献甚至更小。估计目前的ADR限制性措施可能会对英伟达 造成约10% 的直接影响，这主要源于其在中国数据中心的投入，这主要归功于其H20 AI GPU。NVDA在华 的其他销售额来自与ADR不太相关的领域（例如游戏、汽车、工作站市场等）。 出于一些考虑，我预计特朗普政府会在5月15日宣布减少ADR的限制。将ADR从目前 的分级制度转变为其他制度（例如政府间许可协议），可以成为这些双边协议中强有 力的筹码。因此，预计修订后的ADR将对英伟达 构成利好因素，并可能在5月15日发 布后引发股价大幅上涨。 但即使新的 ADR 对 英伟达的有利程度不如分析师上面预期的那样，预计下行空间仍将有限，原 因有几个。 首先，英伟达 股票的估值倍数被过度压缩。从下图可以看出，该股目前的第一财年市盈率为 26 倍，远低于近年来 36 倍的历史平均市盈率。如果考虑到增长预期，估值折让就更加明显。例 如，Magic 7 目前的 PEG 比 ...

以下文章来源于海豚投研 ，作者海豚君 来源 | 海豚投研 5 月 2 日早美股盘后，亚马逊公布了 2024 年 1 季度财报，当季业绩中规中矩，同样属于在过于保守预期下，反而显得不错的表现。但业绩主要 雷在公司对下季度的利润指引偏低，暗指利润率将环比下降。具体来看： 1、AWS 没有提速，利润则大超预期：本季 AWS 的营收同比增速为 16.9%，相比上季放缓约整整 2pct ，也比卖方预期的 17.3% 要低，并不如 昨天的 Azure 有超预期强劲的表现。 不过业绩前，市场对 AWS 的预期并不高。横向对比 3 大云计算巨头，除了 Azure 外， GCP 和 AWS 的增速都呈放缓趋势的。 且即便是 Azure，加速增加的主要原因也是 AI 业务的贡献，传统非 AI 业务的贡献增速同样是略微放缓的。从这个角度， 企业在传统非 AI 需求上的支出 确实是有走弱的迹象的。 因此 AWS 平平的表现也可以说是预期之内。 根据一些调研，A WS 似乎在获取高性能 GPU 以及新数据中心/算力的供给上，相比 Azure 有更明显的瓶颈 ，因此限制了 AI 需求的释放（而传 统需求又不好），这或许是 AWS 增长未 ...

作者 | JR Research 编译 | 华尔街大事件 台积电（NYSE：TSM） 不仅是半导体行业的领军企业，更是 价值链中至关重要的参与者。 苹果需要台积电来生产芯片。英伟达也需要台积电来生产芯片。 AMD 也是如此，它试图在数据 中心市场抢占更大的市场份额，同时试图 撼动英伟达 在数据中心 AI 芯片领域的主导地位。 就连英特尔也依赖台积电来缓解其在代工领域面临的挑战，同时在新任首席执行官陈立武（Lip- Bu Tan）的领导下实施扭亏为盈战略。有人质疑 英特尔能否在台积电找到制造合作伙伴 ，帮助 其扭转代工领域的困境。然而， 台积电在2025年4月的第一季度财报会议上也明确表示，媒体的 猜测或许有些过头了。 尽管如此，对于人工智能资本支出逆风是否可能在2026年之后再次抬头的担忧仍不能完全被淡 化。毕竟，唐纳德·特朗普总统已经启动了半导体行业的关税调查，投资者必须认真对待白宫急于 征收这些关税以迫使更多制造业转移到国内的现实。 市场对台积电在4月触底（解放日当 周）后的未来走势更加有信心 。台积电的表现也优于其他半 导体同行（ SMH ），凸显了市场对这家代工龙头的信心。毕竟，该公司不仅实现了35% ...

Core Viewpoint - Airbnb's performance in Q1 2025 was disappointing, with key operational metrics showing a significant slowdown, indicating a broader trend of weakening performance across the company [4][10]. Group 1: Key Operational Metrics - Total Gross Booking Value (GBV) for the quarter was $24.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of only 7%, marking the first time post-pandemic that growth fell below 10% [4]. - The total nights booked increased by just 7.9% year-on-year, with a notable sequential decline of 6.4 percentage points [4]. - The Average Daily Rate (ADR) decreased by approximately 0.9% year-on-year, the first decline since Q4 2022, primarily due to currency exchange rate impacts [5]. Group 2: Regional Performance - North America experienced the most significant demand weakness, with night bookings growing by only low single digits. In contrast, South America and Asia-Pacific regions showed robust growth, with night bookings increasing by over 20% and around 15%, respectively [5][6]. - The overall night booking growth rate would have reached 11% if North America was excluded from the calculations, highlighting the importance of emerging markets in offsetting declines in mature markets [5]. Group 3: Revenue and Monetization - Revenue for the quarter was $2.27 billion, a 6.1% year-on-year increase, but this growth lagged behind the GBV growth, indicating a bottleneck in monetization [6][8]. - The take rate, or monetization rate, slightly decreased by 8 basis points year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of decline, suggesting challenges in the company's ability to convert bookings into revenue [6][10]. Group 4: Profitability and Costs - Despite increased investments in new business initiatives, profitability continued to shrink, with adjusted EBITDA margin declining by approximately 1.4 percentage points to 18.4% [6][10]. - Marketing and product development expenses grew by 8% and 17% year-on-year, respectively, outpacing revenue growth and contributing to the decline in profit margins [6][10]. Group 5: Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, the company guided a revenue midpoint of $3.02 billion, implying a year-on-year growth of about 10%, although this includes a favorable impact from the timing of Easter [7][8]. - The company anticipates a continued slight slowdown in night booking growth and a stable ADR, with adjusted EBITDA expected to remain flat or slightly decline compared to the previous year [8][10].

长按即可参与 尽管英伟达（NASDAQ:NVDA）过去表现辉煌，但分析师还预测其每股收益增长率将会放缓。 英伟达股价仍高于行业平均水平。其高市盈率和企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润比率对投资者构成 了严重风险。迄今为止，几乎没有什么变化。只有贸易紧张局势带来的风险大幅上升。 前段时间有消息称， 由于美国政府要求从美国向华出口芯片必须获得许可证，或将支付出口 H20 图形处理器 (GPU) 相关的 55 亿美元季度费用。 下面的图表是根据上面的表格制作的，显示英伟达的销售额一直在稳步增长。 在《纽约时报》 报道 特朗普政府正在采取措施打击 DeepSeek（ 英伟达向其 供应芯片） 后， 英 伟达股价进一步下跌。 对英伟达和其他依赖大中华市场的高科技公司来说，向该市场运输 H20 图形处理器的 费用可能只是一个开始。 此外，特朗普的关税可能导致美国经济放缓。美联储主席鲍威尔也 表示 ，特朗普的关税可能对 美联储构成挑战。这是因为关税可能会在不久的将来推高通胀，同时导致美国经济放缓。正如鲍 威尔所说，特朗普的关税" 可能会让我们离目标更远 "。换句话说，美联储将陷入" 进退维谷 "的 境地，不知道是放松还是收紧货币政 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wolfspeed, a company focused on silicon carbide semiconductors, has experienced significant stock volatility due to short-seller squeezes and is facing challenges related to its financial performance and debt levels [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - Wolfspeed's stock price has dropped over 80% in the past two years, with a steady decline in revenue since 2016, although there has been some growth since 2020 [3]. - The company has a high debt burden exceeding $4 billion, which could become problematic if free cash flow remains negative [5]. - If cash consumption continues, Wolfspeed may need to raise additional funds by 2026, potentially leading to shareholder dilution [7]. Recent Developments - The company recently dismissed its CFO, which the market viewed positively, and has plans to improve its capital structure and reduce costs [8]. - Wolfspeed reaffirmed its revenue guidance for 2025, expecting revenues between $170 million and $200 million, with gross margins projected between -3% and 7% [9]. - Earnings per share are anticipated to range from -$0.88 to $0.76 [11]. Growth Drivers - The Mohawk Valley wafer plant generated $52 million in revenue last quarter, with expectations of $5.5 billion to $7.5 billion in the upcoming quarter, making it a key growth driver reliant on the electric vehicle market [12]. - The completion of the $5 billion Siler City plant in North Carolina is expected to be a significant milestone for the company [12]. Cost Management and Future Plans - Wolfspeed aims to achieve $200 million in revenue by FY 2026 and plans to implement a cost-cutting strategy that includes a 20% reduction in workforce [13]. - There is speculation regarding the company's potential to secure $750 million in funding from the CHIPS Act, although approval is still pending [14][15]. Market Sentiment - The stock has a high short interest of about 40%, but recent developments have led to a significant price increase of over 50% last month [8]. - Analysts are cautious about long-term investments in Wolfspeed, but the upcoming earnings report could trigger further price movements, with a potential target of $6, representing over a 20% increase from current levels [19].

Core Viewpoint - Uber experienced significant growth in Q4 2024, with total bookings increasing by 18% year-over-year to $44.19 billion, driven by a healthy rise in Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPC) and order frequency [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total bookings reached $44.19 billion in Q4 2024, up 18% from $37.58 billion in Q4 2023 [2]. - MAPC increased to 171 million, a 14% year-over-year growth from 150 million [2]. - Revenue rose by 20% to $11.96 billion, compared to $9.94 billion in the same quarter last year [2]. - Free cash flow surged by 122% to $1.7 billion, up from $768 million [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 44% to $1.84 billion [2]. Management Insights - CEO Dara Khosrowshahi highlighted record demand in the ride-hailing and delivery sectors, exceeding expectations for total bookings, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow [3]. - CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah projected a 14.6% year-over-year revenue growth for Q1 2025, estimating revenue at $11.61 billion [3][4]. Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, total bookings are expected to range between $42 billion and $43.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 11.4% to 15.4% [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to grow by 30% to 37%, reaching between $1.79 billion and $1.89 billion [4]. - Analysts remain optimistic about Uber's stock, with 30 out of 33 analysts rating it as a "buy" [9]. Analyst Sentiment - Despite a 40% increase in Uber's stock price, the expected 5-year compound annual growth rate has decreased from approximately 25% to about 17% [11]. - The consensus target price for Uber is between $80 and $110, with an average expectation of $90.20, indicating a potential upside of around 5% from current levels [11].

来源 | 新智元 刚刚，OpenAI终于放弃成为营利性公司！ CEO Sam Altman的理想主义又回来了： 我们想为世界打造一个大脑，并让人们能够非常轻松地用它来做他们想做的任何事情。 简单地说，OpenAI未来的公司结构会有如下四个特点： OpenAI的非营利董事会——那个Ilya还在曾短暂解雇Sam Altman的董事会——将继续监督其商业子公司，而这个子公司也将从一个「有上限的 盈利企业」转变为像Anthropic和xAI一样的公益公司（PBC）。 新的PBC子公司中，投资者和员工将持有普通股票，其增值没有上限。这样做的目的是为了让 OpenAI 未来更容易筹集更多资金。 Sam Altman说，过去他认为OpenAI是唯一的——在看起来可能会有一个主导的AI时代努力，设计一个「限制汇报的公司」是有意义的——但在 一个有许多优秀人工智能公司的世界里就没有意义了。 他说，OpenAI仍将需要「数千亿美元，最终可能需要数万亿美元」来将其服务带给「全人类」。 同时，Sam Altman还发布了一封全员公开信，在信中解释了OpenAI即将如何改变未来。 OpenAI将继续由现有的非营利组织控制 现有的营利公 ...

Core Insights - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is creating significant opportunities in the market [1] Group 1: AI Market Trends - Blackstone's COO Jonathan Gray believes there is substantial growth potential in data center demand despite challenges posed by U.S. tariffs on AI [3] - Berkshire Hathaway's executive indicates that AI will be a transformative force in the insurance and risk pricing sectors [3] - Apple is collaborating with startup Anthropic PBC to develop a new AI-driven software platform for coding, which will integrate Anthropic's Claude model into Apple's Xcode [3] Group 2: Company Developments - Rite Aid Corp. is facing pressure to file for bankruptcy again within a year due to the inability to secure additional capital, leading to layoffs [3] - Samsung Electronics has begun mass production of HBM3E 12Hi memory but faces risks related to inventory accumulation as it has not yet passed NVIDIA's qualification tests [4] - NVIDIA has reportedly decided to halt sales of its GeForce RTX 5090 D graphics card in mainland China, which was designed to comply with U.S. export controls, resulting in a significant reduction in AI performance [4] Group 3: Apple Bond Issuance - Apple has issued $4.5 billion in bonds, marking its first bond issuance in nearly two years, with plans to use the net proceeds for various corporate purposes [6] - The bond issuance includes $1.5 billion in three-year bonds and $1 billion each in five-year, seven-year, and ten-year bonds [6] - Apple has $8 billion in debt maturing between May and November, and the bond sale attracted orders exceeding $10 billion, indicating strong demand [7]

作者 | Luca Socci 编译 | 华尔街大事件 迪士尼 ( NYSE： DIS ) 无需过多介绍，因为它是一家真正的全球娱乐巨头。 它是如何盈利的？它有多种收入来源：票房收入、订阅 费以及主题公园销售（门票、酒店住宿、 餐饮）。因此，迪士尼将其业务分为三个部分：娱乐、体育和体验。 迪士尼的股票备受争议。一方面，乐观主义者认为，得益于迪士尼独特的漫威、皮克斯、星球大 战等系列电影，迪士尼的股票具有长期潜力。此外，许多人认为 Disney+ 现在终于实现盈利， 并将为迪士尼的利润做出贡献（几年前，迪士尼 每季度亏损超过 10 亿美元 ）。另一方面，其他 投资者担心迪士尼在从有线电视转向流媒体的过程中会蚕食自己的市场份额。其次，主题公园的 门票价格变得过于昂贵，许多家庭都有可能无力承担。最后，许多人认为流媒体之战已经结束， 赢家只有一个：奈飞，亚军可能是亚马逊 Prime Video。 第三，Disney+ 的用户数量已达 1.25 亿，但最近报告略有下降，第二季度的预测也将证实这一 趋势。与此同时，奈飞的全球用户数量突破 3 亿，似乎正在将迪士尼甩在身后。不过，如果算上 Hulu 和 ESPN+，整个生态 ...