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美国的MAGA梦能实现吗?回溯美国制造业百年变迁
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-24 10:17
Group 1 - The article discusses the historical significance of American manufacturing as a backbone of national strength and social structure, highlighting the decline of stable job opportunities for the middle class due to the loss of manufacturing jobs [4][5]. - It raises critical questions about whether the U.S. can bring back some manufacturing capabilities and if the service sector can fill the gap left by manufacturing in providing stable, middle-class jobs [5][36]. Group 2 - The formation of American manufacturing civilization was characterized by the ability of companies to integrate resources across states and industries, supported by government initiatives that set clear demand through public works and military procurement [7][8]. - The post-war period saw significant contributions from education and population structure, with the GI Bill expanding access to higher education and vocational training, while infrastructure projects like the Interstate Highway Act fueled domestic demand [11][12]. Group 3 - The decline of American manufacturing is attributed to three main forces: rising institutional friction, globalization pushing manufacturing to low-cost regions, and the concentration of wealth among high-skilled workers due to technological and financial trends [22][24][25]. - Institutional friction has led to a preference for less risky projects, making it harder for manufacturing to thrive in the U.S. as the approval processes become longer and more complex [24][26]. Group 4 - The article emphasizes that while nominal GDP share of manufacturing has decreased, the actual output has remained stable, indicating that manufacturing has not disappeared but rather shifted in its role within the economy [30][34]. - Employment in manufacturing peaked in June 1979 at 19.6 million and has since declined to approximately 12.8 million by June 2019, reflecting a significant drop in its share of total employment [35][68]. Group 5 - The service sector's ability to absorb displaced manufacturing jobs is questioned, as it struggles to provide sufficient, well-paying jobs with clear career advancement paths, particularly in a high-cost living environment [36][39]. - The article outlines that the service sector is characterized by a "dumbbell structure," where high-end jobs require significant education and skills, while low-end jobs offer low wages and instability, making it difficult to support a middle-class lifestyle [39][40]. Group 6 - The discussion on re-industrialization in the U.S. highlights the need for a dual approach: ensuring national security in critical industries while also addressing the social structure to allow ordinary people to share in economic growth [44][46]. - The article suggests that a realistic path forward involves selective return of manufacturing capabilities, focusing on key industries while also investing in infrastructure, energy transition, and skill development to create stable job opportunities [49][51]. Group 7 - The challenges of re-establishing manufacturing in the U.S. are not solely financial; they also include regulatory hurdles, skill shortages, supply chain density, and overall cost structures that complicate the return of manufacturing jobs [53][54][55]. - The article argues that simple policies like tariffs and subsidies are insufficient to address the complex structural issues facing American manufacturing and that a more nuanced approach is necessary [56][58]. Group 8 - The article concludes that if manufacturing cannot recreate a robust middle class, the U.S. must explore a combination of industries to provide dignified work for ordinary people, including infrastructure, energy transition, and restructured service sectors [60][61]. - It emphasizes that the ultimate goal is to restore a social structure where ordinary people can achieve dignity through work, rather than merely focusing on the number of manufacturing jobs [62][63].
都说“一人公司”好,那为什么没有遍地都是?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-24 10:17
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of "One-Person Companies" (OPC) in the AI era, highlighting how individuals can leverage technology to create successful businesses with minimal resources, contrasting this with traditional business models [4][6][12]. Group 1: Emergence of One-Person Companies - A new business model is emerging where a few employees can connect seamlessly to global markets, generating millions in revenue as "super individuals" [5][6]. - Sam Altman predicted that the AI era would give rise to a new type of startup: the one-person unicorn company [6][7]. - Nathan Baschez noted that startups are becoming "smaller, faster, cheaper, and weirder" [9]. Group 2: Characteristics of One-Person Companies - The key differentiator for OPCs is leverage, with AI acting as a powerful tool that allows individuals to achieve productivity levels previously only possible with larger teams [14][16]. - Examples include Pieter Levels, who operates a one-person company generating $2.5 million annually without employees, and Vivian Kaye, who achieved over $6 million in sales with her brand [16][18]. - The operational model of OPCs often involves a "front-end individual, back-end network" approach, utilizing AI and outsourcing to manage tasks efficiently [19][20]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by One-Person Companies - Many OPCs face a revenue ceiling, with most generating between $100,000 and $500,000 annually, which can lead to operational challenges if they attempt to scale beyond this range [30][31]. - The lack of redundancy in OPCs makes them vulnerable; any personal issue can jeopardize the entire business [33][34]. - There is a risk of becoming overly dependent on platforms, where changes in algorithms can drastically affect business viability [36][37]. Group 4: The Chinese Context - Lingang Experiment - The Lingang area in China is developing a more resilient and systematic growth model for OPCs, addressing key pain points such as cost anxiety and resource isolation [38][39]. - The Lingang ecosystem, termed "OPC5," aims to provide support in cost, connectivity, opportunity, convenience, and community for individual entrepreneurs [40][41]. - The area offers significant cost advantages, such as rent-free first-year support, and fosters a collaborative community among entrepreneurs [43][44]. Group 5: Future Economic Structure - The article suggests a shift towards a "dumbbell" economic structure, with a few large platforms at one end and numerous super individuals at the other, while traditional mid-sized companies may struggle to survive [56][57]. - Investment strategies are evolving, focusing more on investing in individuals rather than companies, with a potential rise in revenue-sharing models [59][60]. - The Lingang OPC model presents an attractive option for young entrepreneurs, allowing them to achieve financial independence and creative freedom without the pressures of traditional corporate structures [62].
快手不止是“受害者”,快手还没有做到的
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-24 06:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant governance failure at Kuaishou, triggered by a coordinated attack from black and gray market organizations, which exposed systemic vulnerabilities in the platform's security measures [2][4]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On December 22, a large-scale coordinated attack targeted Kuaishou's live streaming platform, resulting in numerous violations being broadcasted, with some streams attracting nearly 100,000 viewers [2]. - The attack lasted for about two hours, leading Kuaishou to implement a "no-differentiation shutdown" of its live streaming channels to regain control [2]. - This incident is noted as one of the rare occurrences in the mobile internet's history where a platform had to shut down operations due to such a large-scale attack [2]. Group 2: Security Vulnerabilities - Kuaishou's security defenses were described as "layer by layer lost," indicating a failure to effectively respond to the attack [4]. - The rapid advancement of AI has significantly enhanced hackers' capabilities, allowing for unprecedented levels of autonomous attacks [4]. - Black market organizations have begun utilizing AI to automate the creation of accounts and execute attacks at minimal costs, marking a structural leap in their operational efficiency [5]. Group 3: Financial Impact - Following the incident, Kuaishou's stock price plummeted, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting investor distrust [8]. - The incident highlighted deficiencies in Kuaishou's emergency management, as the platform took two hours to respond effectively [8]. Group 4: Governance and Compliance Issues - The attack revealed potential vulnerabilities in Kuaishou's risk control systems, suggesting that the algorithms used may have flaws [8]. - There is a broader concern regarding the general lack of awareness about cybersecurity among domestic companies, which often only meet minimum legal standards [10]. - Kuaishou's ESG report claims improvements in governance, but the recent incident raises questions about the authenticity of these claims [14][17]. Group 5: Social Responsibility - Kuaishou's initial response positioned the company as a victim, lacking acknowledgment of the societal impact of the incident [17][19]. - The absence of an apology from Kuaishou is interpreted as a minimization of the social consequences of the incident, which could hinder trust rebuilding efforts [20].
早报|小洛熙事件涉事科室手术暂停不实;商务部回应美无人机领域清单;北京发放全国首批L3级自动驾驶专用号牌;A股公司在美遭电信诈骗
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-24 06:19
大家早上好!这里是今天的早报,每天早上,我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 昨夜今晨 【丽江公开发函喊话小红书审核避雷贴】 据现代快报,12月23日下午,云南丽江市古城区文化和旅游局公开发布《关于请小红书平台强化丽江市婚拍领 域信息审核监管和监测的函》,称小红书在履行平台信息监测及管理方面的主体责任和审核义务不到位,导致 大量消费者为达到其超合理诉求,在企业无过错责任情况下利用平台发布不实"避雷贴"、"曝光贴"等内容,威 胁企业退钱退款的情况,企业针对此类不实内容申诉难,造成大量企业商誉受到诋毁,退单退订大面积发生。 据丽江市古城区旅拍行业协会调查摸排,截止到12月,因不实"避雷贴"企业退订100余万元,间接损失超500万 元。 当晚 9 点, @ 现代快报 记者联系上丽江市古城区文化和旅游局副局长朱镇罡,他表示已和小红书取得联系并 递交相关材料,事情已在处理阶段。 【东方雨虹:美国子公司疑遭电信诈骗,涉案金额约1211万元】 据界面新闻,东方雨虹12月23日公告,公司近日获悉,公司下属美国全资子公司OYH Construction Materials LLC(简称"OYH建材公司")疑遭电信诈骗 ...
DeepSeek给出了对寒武纪、摩尔线程、沐曦的投资建议
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-24 06:19
以下文章来源于最话 FunTalk ,作者最话团队 最话 FunTalk . 不写平庸的故事 本文来自微信公众号: 最话 FunTalk ,作者:何伊然,编辑:刘宇翔,题图来自:AI生成 一个有趣的问题是:如果 AI 有泡沫,为什么不卖出 288 倍 PE 的寒武纪,卖出亏损的摩尔线程、沐 曦,买入 44 倍 PE 的英伟达?如果 AI 没有泡沫,为什么放着 44 倍 PE 的英伟达不买,而去追高 288 倍 PE 的寒武纪、亏损的摩尔线程和沐曦? 当我把问题抛给 DeepSeek ,善于拍马屁的它直呼, 这确实是一个 " 灵魂拷问 " ,并给出了它的看 法: 答案并非简单的 " 是 " 或 " 否 " ,而是取决于投资目标、风险承受能力和对 AI 产业发展路径 的判断。 坦率说,当 DeepSeek 给出这些分析以及建议时,我觉得 AI 并没有泡沫或者说 AI 的进化值得期 待,在 AI 领域投再多的投入都值得。这是场看不见硝烟的军备竞赛,赢家通吃,输家则彻底出局。 这也是 " 胆小鬼的游戏 " ,谁也不敢先认输,起码英伟达的黄仁勋没有。他在近期一次内部交流会 上预测: 到 2027 年,仅 英伟达 自己供 ...
快手到底惹了谁?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-23 13:35
Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou Technology, one of China's largest short video platforms, experienced a significant network attack that led to the temporary shutdown of its live streaming services, marking one of the largest security incidents in recent years for Chinese internet platforms [6][19]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On December 22, Kuaishou's live streaming channels were flooded with inappropriate content due to a large-scale cyber attack, with reports indicating that some live streams attracted nearly 100,000 viewers at one point [6]. - Following the attack, Kuaishou's stock price fell nearly 6% at the opening of the Hong Kong stock market, closing down 3.52% [8]. - Kuaishou issued a voluntary announcement stating that the live streaming function was attacked around 10 PM and that emergency measures were taken to restore services [8]. Group 2: Public Reaction and Impact - The incident led to a surge in Kuaishou's visibility on social media, with the app climbing to the second position in the Apple App Store's download rankings in China, surpassing other competitors [11]. - There were rumors about potential security issues affecting WeChat accounts due to the attack, but these were debunked by WeChat's official response [11]. - Kuaishou is reportedly intensifying its recruitment for security positions, although some job postings predate the attack [13]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Experts suggest that the attack was likely a well-organized external hacking effort, exploiting vulnerabilities in the live streaming interface and bypassing Kuaishou's content review processes [16]. - The incident highlights significant weaknesses in Kuaishou's risk control and defense systems against extreme security attacks, as traditional manual defenses are inadequate for large-scale automated attacks [16][19]. Group 4: Financial Implications - Kuaishou's live streaming business, which accounted for 26.9% of total revenue in Q3 2025, is under scrutiny due to the potential impact of this security incident on its operations [19][20]. - The company has warned investors to exercise caution when trading its securities following the incident [20].
AI面试,正在变成一场没有人的表演
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-23 13:35
以下文章来源于脑极体 ,作者珊瑚 脑极体 . 从技术协同到产业革命,从智能密钥到已知尽头 本文来自微信公众号: 脑极体 ,作者:珊瑚,题图来自:AI生成 2025年,某社交平台上一篇帖子火了。一位网友打码贴出录用意向书,略带调侃地宣布:"达成靠AI 挂面率为零的新成就。" 评论区迅速发酵,有人质疑,有人求攻略,更多人晒出了自己的战绩: 有人用AI优化了数十份简历后,拿到了心仪面试;有人靠实时辅助软件,顺利通过了某国企的AI视 频初筛。 当企业用AI快速筛选简历、用虚拟人进行第一轮面试时,求职者也开始用AI武装自己,试图以技术 对抗技术。 一个怪圈已然形成:企业部署AI以求效率,求职者使用AI以求机会。两者相遇,面试不再是求职者 与公司的对话,而是演变成了屏幕两端AI系统的博弈。从美化简历到伪造面试表现,一场围绕AI的 攻防战正在重塑人才市场的第一道关卡。 那么,市面上有哪些AI辅助面试形式?我们又该如何看待这样你攻我防的面试对决? AI面试魔法对轰 根据世界经济论坛的调查,当前至少百分之八十八的公司已在招聘中运用人工智能筛选求职者,其中 百分之二十三甚至用AI进行面试。求职者也在用ChatGPT之类的生成式A ...
世界上最坏的爸爸,竟是小猪佩奇她爹
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-23 13:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the backlash against the character Daddy Pig from the animated series "Peppa Pig," highlighting the criticism of his portrayal as a bumbling, incompetent father figure and the broader implications of male representation in media [5][10][11]. Group 1: Criticism of Daddy Pig - Daddy Pig is criticized for being clumsy and incompetent, often causing chaos in various situations [13][16]. - His character is seen as lacking authority in the family, with Mommy Pig often having to clean up his messes and make decisions [18][23]. - The backlash was sparked by a model named David, who publicly labeled Daddy Pig as a "big waste" during a discussion on gender balance in family roles [11][12]. Group 2: Support for Daddy Pig - Many social media users defended Daddy Pig, arguing that he is a loving and patient father who tries to meet his family's needs [21][23]. - Supporters emphasize that Daddy Pig's character is meant to be humorous and relatable, rather than a negative representation of fatherhood [27][30]. - Some commentators noted that the criticism reflects a broader issue of male representation in media, where positive male role models are often lacking [34][36]. Group 3: Changing Perceptions of Fatherhood - The article outlines two archetypes of father figures in media: the traditional authoritative father and the modern, often inept father [39][50]. - The shift towards portraying fathers as more involved in emotional aspects of parenting has led to a new stereotype of the "inept dad," which some argue undermines the role of fathers [42][46]. - The discussion highlights the tension between expectations of masculinity and the evolving role of fathers in contemporary society [62][70].
斩杀线专杀中产
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-23 13:35
Core Viewpoint - The concept of the "kill line" in the U.S. disproportionately affects the middle class, highlighting the fragility of their economic stability and the rapid descent into financial ruin when faced with unexpected challenges [6][7][8]. Group 1: Kill Line Mechanism - The "kill line" refers to a threshold where individuals, particularly in the middle class, face exponentially greater risks of financial collapse when their circumstances change suddenly, such as losing a job [6][8]. - In the U.S., losing a job can lead to a series of negative consequences, including inability to pay rent, loss of housing, and ultimately a downward spiral into poverty [10][11]. Group 2: Comparison with China - In contrast to the U.S., the job market in China does not require a fixed residential address, largely due to the existence of a national ID system that provides a level of trust and verification for employers [14][20]. - The absence of such a mechanism in the U.S. necessitates alternative methods for establishing trust, such as requiring proof of a stable residential address, which can be more costly and complex [22][23]. Group 3: Societal Implications - The article argues that policies perceived as beneficial, such as free healthcare and education, can inadvertently create barriers that disproportionately affect the middle class, leading to increased financial burdens [30][34]. - The "kill line" serves as a metaphorical tax on maintaining a certain standard of living, where individuals must meet various requirements to avoid financial disaster [35][36]. Group 4: Economic Vulnerability - The middle class is particularly vulnerable to the "kill line" due to their higher fixed costs and the precarious nature of their financial situations, where even minor risks can lead to significant consequences [37][38]. - The article suggests that lower-income individuals, such as certain communities of color, may have developed resilience strategies that allow them to navigate these challenges more effectively [40][41]. Group 5: Broader Context - The discussion extends to the historical context of capitalism and the evolution of societal structures that create these economic pressures, emphasizing that the mechanisms of trust and risk management have varied across cultures and time periods [16][19]. - The narrative critiques the notion that all policies are inherently good, suggesting that many well-intentioned initiatives can lead to adverse outcomes for specific demographics, particularly the middle class [32][35].
150欧元的刀终于刺向中国跨境电商
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-23 10:52
Core Viewpoint - The European Union has decided to eliminate the import tax exemption for cross-border packages valued under 150 euros starting in 2026, which will significantly impact Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers [4][5]. Policy Changes - The EU will impose a temporary tax of 3 euros on each cross-border e-commerce package valued under 150 euros starting July 2026 [4]. - This policy's implementation has been moved up by two years, affecting many Chinese sellers who previously relied on this exemption to maintain high margins and rapid turnover [4][5]. Cost Implications - The removal of the 150-euro exemption is expected to increase overall operational costs by 5 to 10 percentage points due to additional compliance, declaration, and warehousing costs [8]. - Platforms may experience a short-term profit compression of around 10%, while sellers will face further margin pressure [8]. Market Reactions - In the short term, cross-border e-commerce platforms in Europe may adopt a strategy of maintaining prices to stabilize the market, potentially through subsidies and profit dilution [9]. - After the price adjustment period, overall prices in the European market are likely to rise by more than 5% [10]. Order Fluctuations - Price increases may lead to a decline in order volumes, creating a transitional phase from reduced orders to stabilized pricing in the first half of 2026 [12]. - A similar situation occurred in the U.S. market in 2025 when the $800 tax exemption was removed, leading to a price adjustment phase [13]. Strategic Adjustments - Cross-border e-commerce platforms are shifting their inventory and logistics strategies, moving away from low-stock direct shipping to more strategic inventory planning [15]. - There is a noticeable trend towards increased use of sea and land transport, reducing reliance on expensive air freight, which helps distribute shipping costs [15]. Local Partnerships - Many platforms are accelerating the establishment of warehouses in Europe and collaborating with local delivery services to reduce last-mile delivery costs [16][17]. - The cost of door-to-door delivery in Europe is approximately $3, while self-pickup options cost around $2 [17]. Survival of the Fittest - The changes brought by the tax policy will favor companies that can enhance compliance and supply chain efficiency, while smaller sellers relying on low-cost strategies may face significant challenges [18]. - Larger merchants with monthly revenues exceeding $300,000 are expected to absorb the cost increases more effectively than smaller sellers [18]. Industry Outlook - The early implementation of the tax policy indicates that Chinese platforms have been preparing for these changes, focusing on compliance and operational efficiency [19]. - The tax changes may lead to industry consolidation, with stronger, compliant platforms gaining a competitive edge while smaller, less compliant sellers may be eliminated [20][21].