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英伟达的泡沫,或许能再吹5万亿美元
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-30 13:13
Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has surpassed $210, making it the first company in history to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion, raising questions about the sustainability of this valuation and whether the bubble will burst soon [2][3]. Group 1: Market Comparison - Nvidia's market growth is compared to Intel's historical growth from $120 billion to $509 billion between 1996 and 2000, driven by the PC market, while Nvidia's growth is supported by diverse markets including AI, data centers, consumer graphics, and autonomous driving [5]. - Nvidia's revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is projected to exceed 100% from fiscal year 2022 to 2025, contrasting with Intel's 12.6% CAGR from 1996 to 2020 [5]. - Nvidia operates as a fabless company, avoiding the heavy asset burdens of traditional chip manufacturers, which allows for more flexible capital allocation [6]. Group 2: AI Industry Context - The article discusses the potential for Nvidia's business model to be likened to an "energy company" in the AI industry, as it provides essential computational power rather than just infrastructure [10][13]. - Nvidia's recent $100 billion investment proposal to OpenAI for building data centers illustrates its role in the AI ecosystem, where it acts as a provider of computational resources [11][12]. - The AI industry is experiencing a bubble, potentially larger than previous internet bubbles, with companies like OKLO achieving high valuations despite minimal revenue [17]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Nvidia's growth is expected to continue for the next one to two years, driven by technology-driven industries that have yet to fully utilize computational power [18][20]. - The company has positioned itself to support various AI research directions, ensuring a steady demand for its computational resources, even if the commercial viability of these applications remains uncertain [21]. - Concerns about potential computational resource overcapacity are not immediate, as the demand for AI-related computational power is still growing [21].
投科技,需要先去伪存真
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-30 10:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant rise of technology, particularly AI, in the investment landscape, transitioning from "theme speculation" to "fundamental verification" [2][4] - The article highlights the importance of selecting quality stocks with orders, revenue, and cash flow, as these will attract funding and valuation increases in the next phase [4][5] - The recent policies from the government, including the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative, are expected to further support the development of the technology sector [4][5] Group 2 - The article draws parallels between the current AI investment wave and the internet boom of 1999-2000, suggesting that despite short-term fluctuations, quality companies will ultimately thrive [3][4] - It discusses the advantages of ETFs in technology investment, allowing investors to capture sector trends while mitigating risks associated with individual stocks [7][8] - The article provides examples of specific ETFs that track indices related to AI, semiconductor, and robotics, offering investors diversified exposure to these sectors [9][10] Group 3 - The article notes that the technology investment landscape is characterized by high volatility, high elimination rates, and high premiums, necessitating careful stock selection [5][13] - It emphasizes the importance of choosing reputable fund companies for index investments, as they provide better transparency and tracking of indices [12][13] - The article concludes that technology investment is akin to a marathon, where long-term strategies and index investments can help navigate uncertainties [13]
中国人不爱“退税买包”了
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-30 10:01
以下文章来源于Vogue Business ,作者编辑团队 Vogue Business . 打造时尚产业智库 GlobalBlue数据显示,欧洲免税市场的增长来自三个方向:超高净值消费者、美国与中东买家、以及 年轻一代Z世代。而中国游客的消费复苏却陷入停滞。 从2019年到2024年,中国游客在欧洲的免税消费年复合下降8%。相比之下,美国游客的支出增长 12%,海湾国家游客增长14%。欧洲的奢侈品牌重新学会了迎合别的客人——英语、阿拉伯语成为门 店的主流语言。 对于那些曾经依赖中国游客的欧洲零售商,这是一场"静悄悄的地震"。 但中国游客并未消失。如今,他们有高达40%的免税购物发生在日本,远高于2019年的14%。东京银 座的退税柜台重新排起长龙——但这次,他们不再飞十几个小时去巴黎。 航班恢复有限、签证流程繁琐,让欧洲不再"说走就走";而东亚目的地近、方便、文化亲近,成为最 自然的替代。更重要的是——中国本土的奢侈品零售体验已经不输给欧洲。 疫情三年间,中国的奢侈品零售基础设施迎来质变。从传统的北京SKP、上海恒隆,到近年来持续发 力的南京德基、深圳湾万象城,再到海南离岛免税、品牌自建直营旗舰,消费者在国 ...
当GDP蒸发三分之二,这个县城还有未来吗?
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-30 10:01
以下文章来源于食通社Foodthink ,作者许千路 食通社Foodthink . 一个关于可持续食物的知识和信息平台,集结国内外研究者和实践者,共同传播和倡导更加可持续的农业和食物 系统。 本文来自微信公众号: 食通社Foodthink ,作者:许千路,编辑:玉阳,题图来自:视觉中国 有时候,感觉世界很大,大到每天有各种各样的信息充斥在社交媒体上,科技的、民生的、贸易的、金融的、 社会事件的等等,让人目不暇接。有时候,又感觉世界很小,或许一个农机企业的兴衰就足以影响一个县城的 命运。后来,我发现 这个世界大与小之间并不那么绝对,一个县城普通居民的小日子,悄悄地被这个社会的宏 观变化所决定着 。而生活在其中的人只能继续沉浮,或是积极、或是消极地面对这一切。 去年年底,因为工作原因,我被调往鲁西地区的一个小县城,接受为期半年的基层锻炼。此刻,当我动笔尝试 写下那半年的光景,万青的歌词——"如此生活三十年,直到大厦崩塌"——就这样从脑海里跳了出来。 高唐县,古称高唐州,县城不大,按照北京的比例尺计算,大约是十号线地铁站所围成的大小,其中还包括城 中心的一片水域。再往外便是农田和民房混合的城郊,越靠近城郊的地方,道 ...
焦虑的贝索斯,决定先裁30000人
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-30 10:01
他一边轻拍婴儿的背哄睡,一边凝视着手机屏幕上那封措辞谨慎却冰冷的通知邮件,内心五味杂陈。 同一时间的公司会议室里,亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西 (Andy Jassy) 正面色凝重地向董事会展示一系列 数字和图表:亚马逊将启动史上最大规模的一次裁员,削减约30000名企业员工,包括中国国内员 工。 本文来自微信公众号: 新智元 ,作者:新智元,编辑:艾伦,题图来自:视觉中国 一个灰蒙蒙的清晨,在西雅图亚马逊总部附近的咖啡馆里,一位年轻的程序员父亲正抱着尚在襁褓中 的孩子,神情恍惚。 几小时前,他收到了亚马逊的内部邮件通知:他所效力的团队将被裁员。 而随着亚马逊这一纸通知,"2025年度被裁科技员工"的计数器瞬间飙升到了128000人以上。 裁员人群也不是想象中的主要面向仓库蓝领工人,而是以办公室白领为主。 短短一夜之间,这家全球科技巨头的裁员消息引爆行业。 据追踪科技行业失业数据的网站Layoffs.fyi统计,今年截至前天 (10月27日) 整个科技行业被裁员 工约为98000人; 亚马逊一家公司的动作,就占据了全行业裁员总数的约四分之一。 这样的规模和速度,让整个行业为之震动。 或许是感受到了巨大的舆论压力,今 ...
早报|英伟达成史上首个市值突破5万亿美元的公司;美联储再降息25个基点;宗馥莉罕见公开露面;宇树科技将发布四足新品
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-30 00:15
Group 1 - Nvidia becomes the first publicly traded company to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion, reaching $5.05 trillion, with a significant increase from $4 trillion in just 113 days, compared to 410 days for the previous milestone [2] - Nvidia's stock has rebounded over 135% since its low in April and has increased by 54% year-to-date, with CEO Jensen Huang projecting sales growth driven by new chips, expecting to generate $500 billion in revenue over the next few quarters, exceeding market expectations by 12% [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut and the fifth cut since September 2024 [3] Group 3 - Amazon Web Services (AWS) plans to invest at least $5 billion in South Korea to build artificial intelligence data centers by 2031, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its AI infrastructure [6] - Amazon announced a layoff plan affecting approximately 14,000 employees to streamline operations and accelerate AI deployment, despite reporting a 13% year-over-year increase in net sales to $167.7 billion in Q2 [12] Group 4 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has named several companies, including iQIYI and Zhuanzhuan, for poor customer service, urging them to improve their service capabilities [13]
英伟达是怎么被“抬”上5万亿的?
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-30 00:15
出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | 视觉中国 10月29日,美股一开盘,英伟达成为了史上第一个市值突破5万亿美金的公司。 一天前,在GTC DC大会上,英伟达CEO黄仁勋展示出来自AI的强劲需求。比如,他表示,今年及2026年,Blackwell和Rubin架构芯片可带来的 收入超5000亿美元,这个收入将来自2000万颗GPU。5000亿美元收入将是2023年~2025年Hopper架构芯片所带来收入的5倍。 在演讲中,黄仁勋又一次驳斥了AI泡沫论。 他当然要驳斥,作为AI时代核心资源——GPU的卖铲人,英伟达一手掌握稀缺资源的定价权。可以说,英伟达的市值取决于市场对于美国AI未 来的乐观程度。 然而,伴随着英伟达5万亿市值的到来,"AI泡沫论"的质疑声音也空前高涨。 这,要从一笔关联交易说起。 9月22日,英伟达宣布,将向OpenAI投资一笔高达1000亿美元的巨款。作为"回报",OpenAI承诺了一份价值10GW GPU的超级订单。 这种"左手倒右手"的方式,瞬间引发了资本市场对AI泡沫的更深担忧。 近日,IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃在华盛顿演讲中表示,全球股价在 ...
服务期满后,超八成定向医学生离开基层
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-30 00:15
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and shortcomings of the rural order-oriented medical student training program in China, highlighting the high attrition rates and dissatisfaction among graduates who are unable to fulfill their commitments to serve in rural areas [5][6][25]. Group 1: Background of the Program - The rural order-oriented medical student program was initiated in 2010 to address the shortage of medical professionals in rural areas by offering free education to students from these regions, with the expectation that they would return to serve their communities [5][6]. - Over the past 15 years, approximately 90,000 students have been enrolled in this program, which initially alleviated staffing issues in rural healthcare institutions [5][6]. Group 2: Current Challenges - A study published in 2024 revealed that only 17.5% of the surveyed order-oriented medical students were willing to continue their service after the mandatory period, indicating a talent loss rate exceeding 80% [6]. - Factors contributing to this high attrition include early career planning, disparities between urban and rural medical training, and local employers' reluctance to retain non-local talent [6][20]. Group 3: Personal Experiences - Graduates shared experiences of being underutilized in their roles, with some assigned to administrative tasks rather than clinical duties, leading to feelings of frustration and disillusionment [18][20]. - The average salary for these graduates in rural health institutions is significantly lower than expected, with some reporting monthly incomes as low as 3,000 yuan, which is below the average for local medical professionals [20][21]. Group 4: Policy Adjustments - Recent policy changes indicate a shift towards extending the service period for new order-oriented medical students from 6 years to 9 years, aiming to stabilize the workforce in rural healthcare [25]. - The article notes that despite not being directly affected by the new policy, recent graduates are already being asked to sign contracts for extended service periods, which may limit their future career opportunities [25].
黄仁勋:第二个拐点现在已经到来
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-29 13:37
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative impact of AI and accelerated computing on various industries, highlighting NVIDIA's leadership in redefining computing paradigms and its strategic partnerships to advance technologies like 6G and quantum computing [4][6][15]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Innovations and Partnerships - NVIDIA's new product line, NVIDIA ARC, aims to enhance 6G infrastructure through AI and accelerated computing, marking a significant step for the U.S. to regain leadership in telecommunications technology [4][17]. - The collaboration with Nokia is expected to integrate NVIDIA's technology into future base stations, enhancing AI capabilities in wireless communication [18]. - NVIDIA's advancements in quantum computing include the introduction of NVQLink and CUDAQ, facilitating collaboration between quantum processing units and GPU supercomputers [5][23]. Group 2: AI and Accelerated Computing - AI is described as a force that redefines the entire computing stack, requiring substantial energy, GPU power, and new algorithmic frameworks [6][28]. - The shift from general computing to accelerated computing is highlighted as a critical transition, with NVIDIA's CUDA framework enabling this evolution [10][49]. - The article discusses the exponential growth in demand for computational resources driven by smarter AI models and their applications across various sectors [39][40]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Potential - NVIDIA's market capitalization reached $4.89 trillion, with expectations that GPU sales will reach $500 billion by the end of 2026, driven by government contracts and diversified revenue streams [6][6]. - The article suggests that the AI industry is at a turning point, with models becoming sophisticated enough to create value and warrant investment [39][40]. - The need for innovative solutions to meet the increasing computational demands is emphasized, particularly as traditional scaling methods face limitations [42][43].
投资就是投资,不要给自己“加戏”
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-29 13:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three types of contrarian investors and their approaches to investing during market bubbles, emphasizing that participating in bubbles can sometimes be a rational choice despite the inherent risks involved [4][10]. Group 1: Types of Contrarian Investors - Aggressive contrarian investors directly oppose the market by short-selling bubbles, which is a challenging strategy due to the psychological and financial pressures involved [12][17]. - Lonely contrarian investors maintain cash positions or minimal investments, facing social isolation and pressure from prevailing market sentiments, which can lead to a "spiral of silence" where they refrain from expressing their views [18][21]. - Active contrarian investors, like deep value investors, continue to invest in undervalued stocks during bubbles, often referred to as "old economy stocks," which can lead to criticism for not participating in the prevailing market trends [24][25]. Group 2: Psychological Aspects - The phenomenon of "fear of missing out" (FOMO) drives many investors to participate in bubbles, as investment returns are often tied to social status [7][10]. - The "martyr complex" can lead contrarian investors to view themselves as lone heroes fighting against the bubble, which may disconnect them from reality and hinder their decision-making [34][36]. - The article highlights the importance of maintaining an open mindset and engaging with others to alleviate the pressures faced by contrarian investors [36].