Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences between Free Cash Flow Index and Low Volatility Dividend Index, focusing on stock selection criteria, industry distribution, and performance characteristics. Group 1: Stock Selection Criteria - Free Cash Flow Index considers multiple factors including free cash flow and earnings quality, representing a growth value style [5][21] - The selected stocks in the Free Cash Flow Index include growth-oriented companies such as CATL, Midea Group, and Wuliangye [6] - Low Volatility Dividend Index focuses on liquidity, dividend yield, and volatility, selecting high dividend, low volatility stocks, typical of a value style [10][21] Group 2: Industry Distribution - Free Cash Flow Index covers growth sectors like telecommunications, power equipment, home appliances, and food and beverage, with these sectors accounting for over 34% of the index weight [12][21] - Low Volatility Dividend Index primarily includes undervalued, high dividend sectors such as banking, transportation, construction, textiles, coal, and steel [14][21] Group 3: Concentration and Performance - Free Cash Flow Index has a high concentration with the top ten stocks accounting for nearly 70% of the index weight, leading to higher volatility risk [17][21] - In contrast, Low Volatility Dividend Index has a more dispersed weight distribution, with the highest individual stock weight below 3%, resulting in lower volatility risk [19][21] - Performance-wise, from 2019 to 2021, the Free Cash Flow Index increased by over 90%, while the Low Volatility Dividend Index rose by only about 30% [23][25]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 非完全进化体 来源：雪球 过去几年 ， 我们部分持仓基于低市盈率 、 较高股息率筛选细分行业竞争格局稳固的中小市值龙 头公司进行投资 。 即便同样承受了经济景气回落的压力 ， 但因买得足够便宜 ， 整体还是获得 了一定相对收益 。 基本 " 躲开 " 了这一期间 ， 消费 、 互联网 、 医药 、 新能源等领域核心 资产从估值高位持续回落的过程 。 去年下半年以来 ， 内外部环境冲击及不确定性进一步加剧 。 缺少足够产业链地位的中小市值公 司 ， 即便作为某一细分行业的龙头 ， 盈利的稳定性也经常遭受各种考验 。 在行业竞争加剧与 外部利空冲击下 ， 公司治理中的各种问题也更容易暴露出来 。 即便这些公司的管理层相比国内大多数企业已经属于最优秀的一批 。 但应知道 ， 中国绝大多数 行业龙头公司的发展历程也才10-20年 。 有很多问题与考验尚未遭遇 ， 最典型的诸如应对官僚 体系问题 、 股权架构制约问题 、 二代接班及职业经理人体系建立 、 全球化过程中应对各类政 策风险的能力 ， 包括公平公开的对待各类投资者的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that 2024 will be a disappointing year for the investor community of Pizhou Huang, as the company's revenue growth is projected to be only 7.25%, marking the second consecutive year of growth below 10% and the lowest in nearly a decade [2][16]. Revenue and Growth Analysis - Pizhou Huang's revenue for 2024 is reported at 10.787 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.25%, and a net profit of 2.977 billion, reflecting a growth of 6.42% [16]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a rare decline in revenue, with a year-on-year drop of 0.92% [16]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 also experienced a revenue decline of 5.7%, indicating a troubling trend for the company [16]. Historical Context and Market Position - Pizhou Huang's market value surged from 1 billion at its IPO in 2003 to nearly 300 billion in 2021, achieving a nearly 300-fold increase over 18 years [4]. - The company was once synonymous with "market value myth," particularly during the boom of the liquor sector from 2020 to 2021, when its price-to-earnings ratio peaked at 160 times [4][11]. - The brand was closely associated with high-end gifting and investment, often marketed alongside Moutai, creating a perception of scarcity and investment value [4][11]. Price Dynamics and Market Trends - Pizhou Huang has undergone multiple price increases since its inception, with the latest adjustment in May 2023 raising the price to 760 per unit, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [8][11]. - The price of Pizhou Huang's products has seen a drastic decline, with secondary market prices dropping to around 500, and even lower for near-expiry products [15][16]. Challenges and Strategic Shifts - The company faces rising raw material costs, with prices for key ingredients like natural musk and cow bile skyrocketing, which has pressured profit margins despite price increases [15][16]. - Pizhou Huang is attempting to reposition itself by emphasizing its medicinal properties and conducting clinical trials to validate its efficacy, moving away from the perception of being merely a high-end gift [19][20]. - The company is also investing in research and development for new drug formulations, although its historical R&D spending has been low, raising concerns about its capacity to innovate effectively [20][21]. Diversification Efforts - Pizhou Huang has been exploring diversification into the personal care sector, launching several cosmetic brands, but this segment has not yet achieved significant growth [21][23]. - The company aims to replicate the success of other brands by integrating pharmaceutical and consumer goods, but current performance in this area remains underwhelming [21][23]. Conclusion - The decline in Pizhou Huang's market position reflects a broader trend of rational consumer behavior in China, where the previous reliance on marketing and perceived value is being challenged [23][24]. - The company must focus on delivering genuine product efficacy and value to regain consumer trust and stabilize its market position in the evolving landscape [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Molong successfully removed its risk warning and returned to the Hong Kong Stock Connect, leading to a significant stock price surge, but simultaneously faced a substantial share reduction by major shareholders, raising concerns about its financial stability and future performance [1][2][3]. Group 1: Successful "Hat Removal" - Shandong Molong's stock price soared by 200% on the day it was officially delisted from risk warnings, with A-shares hitting the daily limit and H-shares experiencing a significant increase [4][6]. - The company reported a total revenue of 1.356 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of approximately 3% compared to the previous year, while the net loss was significantly reduced by 92.29% to 43.7 million yuan from 567 million yuan in 2023 [6][15]. Group 2: Major Shareholder Reduction - In a span of three days, major shareholders reduced their holdings by approximately 17% of the total share capital, equating to 136 million shares, with the shareholding ratio dropping from 19% to 2.01% [8][10]. - The total amount raised from the share reduction exceeded 600 million Hong Kong dollars, indicating a significant exit by major shareholders [10]. Group 3: Poor Profitability of Core Business - Shandong Molong's main products include oil drilling machinery and equipment, which are directly influenced by the oil and gas industry's performance [12]. - Despite the recovery in the oil and gas sector, Shandong Molong has continued to report losses, with revenues declining from 3.734 billion yuan in 2021 to 1.356 billion yuan in 2024, and net losses increasing from 368 million yuan to 43.7 million yuan during the same period [12][14]. - The reduction in losses in 2024 was primarily due to gains from the sale of subsidiaries, which contributed approximately 260 million yuan to the financial results [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2025, Shandong Molong aims to enhance market research and adjust product structures to improve competitiveness, while also seeking external financing to stabilize operations and optimize its debt structure [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of global assets and identifies the best-performing safe-haven assets based on historical data analysis over the past 20 years, emphasizing the importance of risk-adjusted returns in investment strategies [4][21]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The recent market fluctuations have been more significant compared to previous years, with the A-share market performing relatively well, while the US stock market has experienced a notable decline of over 20% in the last two months [4][6]. - Long-term investors may view recent downturns as mere corrections, but those who entered the market in January may feel the impact of a 2.6%+ decline over a month [6]. Group 2: Key Metrics for Safe-Haven Assets - Important metrics for evaluating safe-haven assets include maximum drawdown, recovery time from drawdowns, and the probability of positive returns over various holding periods [11][12][13]. - The analysis includes various global stock markets, bond markets, commodities, and cash-like investments to determine their performance as safe-haven assets [14][15]. Group 3: Performance of Safe-Haven Assets - The analysis reveals that Chinese money market funds are the top-performing safe-haven asset, with only a 0.03% maximum drawdown and a 100% probability of positive returns over one year [19][21]. - In contrast, US short-term government bonds have a lower positive return probability of only 40% during low-interest periods, indicating their limited effectiveness as a safe haven [21]. Group 4: Comparison of Bonds and Gold - Chinese bonds exhibit a maximum drawdown of 14.52% with a high probability of positive returns over five years, while US bonds have a maximum drawdown of 51.76% and a less than 50% probability of positive returns annually [24]. - Gold has shown significant price increases recently but has also experienced substantial drawdowns in the past, highlighting the need for caution regarding its volatility [25]. Group 5: Stock Market Performance - The Indian stock market demonstrates the highest risk-return efficiency, with a 97.89% probability of positive returns over five years, outperforming US and Chinese markets [26][28]. - Emerging markets, such as Vietnam, show extreme volatility, with a maximum drawdown of 79.35%, indicating high risk for investors [29][30]. Group 6: Multi-Asset Strategy - A balanced risk parity strategy combining A-shares, Taiwanese stocks, US bonds, gold, and Chinese money market funds yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.134, indicating superior risk-adjusted returns compared to individual assets [34][35]. - This multi-asset approach provides stability and a high probability of positive returns over various holding periods, making it a viable long-term investment strategy [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article compares the financial performance and business strategies of two leading companies in the traditional Chinese medicine sector: Pian Zai Huang and Yunnan Baiyao, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses in profitability, business structure, cash flow, and shareholder returns [2][7]. Profitability - Pian Zai Huang reported a revenue of 3.142 billion yuan in Q1, a slight decrease of 0.92% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 2.59% to 1 billion yuan. The gross margin decreased from 47% to 45%, while sales expenses were cut by 38%, resulting in a net profit of 32 yuan per 100 yuan sold, an increase of 0.8 yuan from the previous year [2][5]. - Yunnan Baiyao achieved a revenue of 10.841 billion yuan, a minor increase of 0.62%, with net profit soaring by 13.67% to 1.935 billion yuan. The industrial gross margin reached 68.34%, with industrial revenue up by 7.63%. The company also reduced sales expenses by 13.23% and management expenses by 3.12%, while R&D expenses rose by 4.96% [2][4]. Business Structure - Pian Zai Huang's core business focuses on liver disease medication, facing significant cost pressures with the price of raw materials increasing by 154%. The company raised the price of its key product to 760 yuan per unit and expanded its distribution network, resulting in a 21% increase in hospital sales. Additionally, its cosmetics line generated 100 million yuan in revenue, a 41% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - Yunnan Baiyao's industrial segment generated 4.470 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.63% increase, while its commercial segment brought in 6.371 billion yuan but with a low gross margin of 6.21%. The company is also integrating AI technology into its operations for marketing and R&D [4][5]. Cash Flow and Risks - Pian Zai Huang reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of 916 million yuan, a 72.33% increase, attributed to strong cash collection and extended supplier payment terms. The company has sufficient inventory to last until 2030 [5]. - Yunnan Baiyao's operating cash flow was 714 million yuan, a 35.39% increase, but it faced high accounts receivable of 10.924 billion yuan, a 10.08% increase, indicating potential cash collection challenges [5]. Dividends and Valuation - Pian Zai Huang's diluted earnings per share were 1.66 yuan, with a dividend yield of less than 1%, indicating a conservative approach to shareholder returns [6]. - Yunnan Baiyao reported earnings per share of 1.08 yuan, with a dividend yield of around 4% and a high payout ratio of 90.09%, reflecting a more generous distribution to shareholders [6]. Conclusion - Pian Zai Huang relies on scarce raw materials, brand premium, and diversification into cosmetics to maintain its market value, but faces long-term innovation challenges due to low R&D spending [7]. - Yunnan Baiyao leverages its toothpaste and daily chemical products along with AI transformation to solidify its market leadership, but contends with low margins in its commercial segment and high accounts receivable [7].

来源：雪球 世界大不同。因为很少出来买东西 ， 我对物价的变化一直没有什么概念 。 今天趁着换轮胎的空当 ， 顺便 去了一趟Cole ' s买鸡蛋 。 18个装的一盒鸡蛋 ， 居然要13澳元 ， 而且还限购每人两盒 。 单看鸡蛋 ， 珀斯的生活成本已经翻了好几番 。 记得刚来澳洲时 ， 一打鸡蛋不过3澳元左右 。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： OilGas " 长安大 ， 居不易 。 " 其实 ， 这个世界本不复杂 ， 复杂的 ， 是人心 。 石油行业的复苏 ， 在当前的地缘政治格局下 ， 变得愈发扑朔迷离 。 连一些巨型石油公司 ， 在过去十几 年中也表现出摇摆不定 。 一方面 ， 欧洲的石油巨头为了迎合社会期待 ， 拼命推动能源转型 ， 结果却让壳牌和BP遍体鳞伤 。 最近 居然传出壳牌和BP要合并的消息 ， 可我实在看不出这种合并有什么稳固的基础 。 壳牌这十几年的勘探业 务 ， 难说毫无成绩 ， 但也几乎找不到特别出色的亮点 。 至于BP ， 其上游业务几乎已经千疮百孔 ， 加 上过去五年激进的转型政策 ， 导致公司流失了大量上游专业人才 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 2.1 什么是红利低波100指数 ？ 红利低波100指数 （ 代码 ： 930955 ） 是中证红利低波动100指数的简称 ， 由中证指数有限公司于 2017年5月26日发布 ， 是一只以 " 高股息和低波动 " 为核心逻辑的指数 。 作者： 王博雅投资 来源：雪球 1 引言 红利低波100指数是仅有的2个五星级红利指数之一 。 它可以看做中证红利的升级版 ， 在保持优秀分散性 的情况下实现了更高的收益和更低的波动 ， 因此在市场上备受关注 。 图1 沪深300 、 中证红利与红利低波指数全收益对比 在之前 ， 我已经对追踪中证红利的基金进行了分析。 今天我将对红利低波100指数进行简介 ， 然后从 费用 、 规模 、 流动性 、 收益与分红频率 等几个关键角 度 ， 对红利低波100ETF进行横评 ， 看看谁最好 ！ 2 红利低波100指数简介 红利低波100指数构成逻辑如下 ： 1 中证全指中过去一年日均成交金额前 80%的公司 。 这是为了避免流动性过差 。 2 过去三年连续现金分红 。 这是为了确保公司具有良好的分红 ...

当地时间5月9日，美股三大指数集体高开并短线走高，盘中集体跳水转为弱势震荡。万得美国科技七巨头指数收盘小幅上涨，成分股涨跌互现，特 斯拉上涨4.72%。中概股涨跌不一，脑再生科技大涨72%。 特朗普最新发声！对华关税势必要下调。 01 特斯拉大涨4.7% 脑再生科技3个月100倍 中概股涨跌不一 ，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收盘下跌0.45%。部分中概股表现亮眼，截至收盘，脑再生涨逾72%，亿咖通科技涨超14%，极氪涨超 7%，名创优品涨逾6%，小马智行涨逾5%。 | 脑再生科技 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RGC 已收盘05-09 16:00:00 美东 | | | | | | 366.01 +154.01+72.65% | | | 1846人加自选 上一篇 > | | | US = LO | | | | | | 总市值 47.63亿 | 高 380.00 开 241.51 | 量 12.23万股 | | | | 额 3670.31万 | 低 232.94 换 0.94% | | 市盈TTM 亏损 | | | 盘后 351.01 -15.00 -4.10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of patience in investment while also highlighting the necessity for quick decision-making when the right opportunities arise. It argues that maintaining patience is essential for enabling rapid actions in investment scenarios [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The discussion at the Berkshire shareholder meeting reflected a shift towards more significant topics such as tariffs, national fortune, and government efficiency, contrasting with the usual light-heartedness [2]. - Warren Buffett and Abel's responses underscored the importance of quick action in investment, suggesting that patience and rapid decision-making are not mutually exclusive but rather complementary [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Skills - The article draws parallels between sports and investment, stating that the ability to make split-second decisions in sports is a result of extensive training, similar to how investment decisions require years of preparation and skill development [3]. - Key investment skills include business model analysis, competitive advantage assessment, financial analysis, demand analysis, and research strategies, all of which are essential for making informed investment decisions [3]. Group 3: Value Investing - Successful value investors often exhibit consistent patience, which is reflected more in the decisions they choose not to make rather than just the successful ones they execute [3]. - The article suggests that unlike sports, investment does not have a time constraint, allowing investors to take their time to observe and analyze before making decisions [3].