Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a collective rise in major indices, with significant gains in the consumer electronics and semiconductor sectors, indicating a strong market sentiment driven by AI and consumer demand [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.22%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.67%, and ChiNext Index up 0.55% [1]. - The total trading volume in the two markets was 2.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,100 stocks declining [1]. - Industrial Fulian's stock price surged by 6.66%, reaching a historical high and a market capitalization exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan, marking a fivefold increase since April 9 [1]. Group 2: Consumer Electronics Sector - Luxshare Precision's stock hit the daily limit, with a maximum order amount exceeding 4.6 billion yuan, reflecting strong performance in the consumer electronics sector [3]. - Apple-related stocks saw a collective rise, with several companies, including Hongfu Han and Fuliwang, hitting their daily limits or rising over 10% [3]. - OpenAI has partnered with Luxshare Precision to develop a consumer-grade device, indicating a growing trend of AI integration in consumer electronics [5]. Group 3: AI Chip Sector - The AI chip sector is experiencing heightened activity, with companies like Zhongke Shuguang and Haiguang Information reaching historical highs [7]. - The upcoming IPO of Moore Threads on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is expected to raise 8 billion yuan, aimed at advancing domestic GPU technology and reducing reliance on foreign chips [9]. - The semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors are entering a new growth phase, with projected revenue growth of 19.2% and net profit growth of 29% for 467 electronic companies in the first half of 2025 [10]. Group 4: Investment Signals - Berkshire Hathaway has completely divested its stake in BYD, a move that may signal a shift in investment strategy and prompts investors to reassess their positions [12][16]. - The sale of BYD shares, which yielded a 38-fold return for Berkshire, highlights the importance of strategic exits in investment management [15].

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market in A-shares has seen significant gains, with the ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index rising by 91.65% and 98.41% respectively since the market bottom on September 24 last year, indicating that the market has been performing for a considerable time [4][5]. Market Performance - The bull market has been characterized by rapid shifts in market hotspots, making it challenging for investors to achieve satisfactory returns unless they were actively engaged during key trading days [4][5]. - As of September 8, major indices like the CSI 300 and the CSI A500 have increased by 16.1% and 18.62% respectively this year, while the ChiNext Index has seen a remarkable rise of 38.5% [6]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to reduce trading frequency and hold onto their positions rather than chasing market trends, as this approach may yield better returns in the long run [5]. - Maintaining a defensive position with a portion of value-style assets is recommended to navigate market volatility, with suggestions to upgrade holdings to funds that exhibit strong defensive characteristics during downturns [7]. - Selecting and patiently holding onto industry themes such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, semiconductors, and precious metals is encouraged, while also considering less popular sectors for potential opportunities [8]. Asset Allocation - A "core-satellite" strategy is proposed, where the core portfolio consists of stable, high-probability assets, while a smaller portion is allocated to riskier assets for potential high returns [8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the phenomenon of large sell orders in the stock market, which appear to be a deliberate action rather than typical large fund exits, possibly indicating regulatory intentions to stabilize the market [3][4][5] - It highlights the current market environment as a "man-made bull market," where regulatory attitudes are seen as the core driving force behind market trends [4][6] - The article outlines three key performance indicators (KPIs) for the regulatory body, including market stability, investment financing reform, and strengthening regulatory enforcement, with market stability being the primary focus [8][9][10] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the current market conditions are not conducive to a slow bull market, as the macroeconomic environment does not support stable growth in corporate earnings [15][16] - It notes that the current bull market is primarily driven by liquidity rather than fundamental improvements in company performance, leading to potential volatility [17][18] - The discussion includes the risks associated with a market that relies solely on valuation increases without corresponding earnings growth, which could lead to sharp declines if expectations are not met [17][19] Group 3 - The article describes the regulatory approach as a technical challenge, where maintaining a balance between market inflows and outflows is crucial for sustaining a slow bull market [22][24] - It suggests that controlling the index, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index, is a strategy to manage market sentiment and prevent excessive volatility [22][23] - The article concludes that effective market management requires a nuanced understanding of market dynamics and the ability to respond to changing conditions, emphasizing the importance of regulatory experience [25][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the downfall of Curtis Faith, the author of the "Turtle Trading Rules," highlighting the contrast between his past success as a trader and his current state of bankruptcy and homelessness, emphasizing the unpredictability of life and the importance of discipline in trading [3][4][18]. Group 1: Turtle Trading Rules - The Turtle Trading Rules, developed in the 1980s by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, is a well-known mechanical trading system that proved trading can be taught [5][6]. - The system is based on trend-following principles, where traders buy when prices break above certain levels and sell when they fall below others, focusing on capturing market trends [7][10]. - Key components of the system include entry signals based on price breakouts, risk management by limiting exposure to 1% of account funds per trade, and strict stop-loss rules to cut losses [7][10]. Group 2: Curtis Faith's Journey - Curtis Faith was one of the youngest Turtle Traders, achieving significant profits early in his career, reportedly earning over $10 million for his fund [15][17]. - After leaving the Turtle program, he attempted various ventures, including startups in IT and blockchain, but faced numerous failures, leading to financial ruin [19][25]. - His recent legal troubles and homelessness serve as a cautionary tale about the volatility of trading success and the risks of overextending in speculative ventures [13][28]. Group 3: Lessons Learned - The article emphasizes the importance of skepticism towards trading gurus, suggesting that even successful traders can face significant failures, as demonstrated by Faith's experience [30][32]. - It warns against excessive risk-taking and highlights the need for disciplined investment strategies, contrasting trend-following with value investing approaches [34][37]. - The narrative concludes with a reflection on the long-term nature of successful investing, advocating for diversified asset allocation as a means to withstand market fluctuations [50].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant penalties faced by Juewei Foods due to underreporting revenue over five years, leading to a substantial decline in market value and the imposition of an ST label on its stock [2][3][9]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions and Penalties - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) reported that Juewei Foods underreported revenue by a total of 724 million yuan from 2019 to 2023, resulting in a fine of 8.5 million yuan [2][5]. - The company will face a one-day suspension of its stock on September 22, followed by the implementation of risk warnings starting September 23, which includes the addition of the ST label [3][8]. - The penalties include a warning and a fine of 4 million yuan for the company, while the chairman and general manager, Dai Wenjun, was fined 2 million yuan for direct responsibility [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Impact - Juewei Foods' market value has decreased by 57.5 billion yuan over three years, with its stock price dropping from a historical high of 21 yuan per share to around 15-16 yuan [10][11]. - The company's revenue showed a growth trend from 52.76 billion yuan in 2020 to 72.61 billion yuan in 2023, but net profit declined from 7.01 billion yuan to 3.44 billion yuan during the same period, indicating a pattern of increasing revenue without corresponding profit growth [16]. - In 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 13.84% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 34.04%, and the first half of 2025 continued this trend with a 15.6% revenue decrease [16][17]. Group 3: Investor Reactions and Market Sentiment - Investor reactions to the ST label have been mixed, with some believing that the resolution of the investigation could lead to a recovery in stock price, while others remain skeptical due to ongoing fundamental issues such as declining store numbers and profits [18][19]. - The company has acknowledged the impact of the penalties on its operations and has committed to rectifying the issues and enhancing compliance measures to protect shareholder interests [20].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者：奶牛的天空 来源：雪球 牛市大批人去做短线了，但是我依然执着于长线投资。今天来聊聊投资回报公式： 长期投资收益率=股息率+利润成长+估值变动 。举例：假设买入 股 票 时 ， 实 时 股 息 率 为 5% ， 利 润 成 长 年 化 为 5% ， PE 为 10； 假 设 卖 出 股 票 时 PE 保 持 不 变 ， 那 么 持 有 这 只 股 票 的 长 期 投 资 收 益 率 为 10%（5%+5%）。 一般来说，企业的基本面不发生变化的前提下，其估值会在一个区域内来回波动，期间可能会随着市场走牛或走熊而发生变化，但是最终的长期估 值还是会回归到它的基本面上来。 总结起来讲，基本面决定企业的长期估值，市场牛熊影响企业的短期估值。 下面我将逐一把公式里的3个元素讲 透： 一、 股息率为股票买入时的实时股息率 炒股软件上的股息率数据通常会有些滞后，特别是当天股价波动比较大的时候影响就比较大，我们可以自行来计算，准确率可以达到100%。 实时股息率=分红金额/当前实时股价*股权摊薄率。 如果企业一年有多次分红，注意要把各次的分红都加上。同时，如果企业每年的分红政策不是 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者：只买消费垄断 来源：雪球 逆向思维，就是，反过来想。总是反过来想。芒格认为，研究失败比研究成功更有价值。因为失败往往揭示了根本问题和风险所在。通过逆向思 考，人们可以更好的识别和规避陷阱，避免犯同样的错误。在股市投资中，芒格通过研究失败的公司的共同规律，来规避风险，他认为避免愚蠢比 追求智慧更容易成功，芒格在书中把失败的公司的原因归为四大类。 第一类失败，能力圈之外的无知型失败：不懂的公司坚决不买。 投资者买股票踩雷，本质是公司的失败。公司失败，本质是投资者和管理者，对业务的底层逻辑毫无认知。导致决策脱离现实。比如盲目跨界，盲 目多元化，比如传统制造业去做互联网，消费品公司去投资芯片，缺乏技术积累也不懂新行业规则，最终投入打水漂。比如箭牌口香糖，主业做的 很好，但是为了多元化盲目收购软件公司，因为完全不懂软件的研发，迭代逻辑，最终软件业务持续亏损，拖累了主业。再比如阿里巴巴投资饿了 吗，苏宁易购，大润发，高德地图，基本都是亏损累累。伯克希尔1989年收购美国航空优先股，到1994年亏损75%。芒格后来承认他和巴菲特低估 了航空业密集的资本投入和同质化竞争；再比如贵州 ...

Group 1 - The core philosophy of value investing emphasizes risk avoidance and the importance of a margin of safety, which is crucial for long-term investment success [2][3][4] - Investors should focus on setting risk targets rather than return targets, as many investment strategies overlook loss avoidance [3][5] - Value investors must maintain discipline and patience, often standing against popular market trends to find undervalued securities [5][6] Group 2 - The concept of margin of safety involves conservatively assessing a company's intrinsic value and comparing it to its market price, which is fundamental to value investing [6][7] - Investors should be cautious about the potential decline in a company's value and respond with conservative evaluations and increased margin of safety [7][8] - The assessment of tangible assets should take precedence over intangible assets, as the latter are more challenging to evaluate [8][9] Group 3 - Value investing tends to shine during market downturns, as it allows investors to benefit from both performance recovery and valuation increases when market perceptions shift [11][12][13] - Market declines often create opportunities for value investors, as securities may be mispriced due to prevailing negative sentiment [12][13] Group 4 - Value investing is characterized by a bottom-up approach, focusing on absolute performance rather than relative performance, and is fundamentally a risk-averse strategy [15][16] - The relationship between market prices and potential value can be reflexive, meaning that stock prices can influence a company's perceived value [19][20] Group 5 - Reverse thinking is essential in value investing, as undervalued securities are often those that are out of favor, while popular stocks tend to be overvalued [22][23] - Successful reverse investors must be prepared for initial losses and uncertainty, as they often go against prevailing market trends [23][24] Group 6 - The effectiveness of research in value investing is limited by the 80/20 principle, where most useful information can be gathered quickly, and excessive research may hinder timely investment decisions [26][30] - Value investors should focus on identifying undervalued opportunities rather than attempting to gather exhaustive information, as low prices can provide a margin of safety [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of three major indices: the Hang Seng Tech Index, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index, and the China Internet 50 Index, highlighting their significant gains and the underlying factors driving these increases [4][5]. Group 1: Index Performance - On September 17, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.22%, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index by 3.27%, and the China Internet 50 Index by 3.40%, all reaching nearly four-year highs [4]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 41.77%, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index and China Internet 50 Index have increased by 58.54% and 47.51% respectively [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Performance - External factors include rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a more accommodative global liquidity environment, which benefit the overall liquidity of Hong Kong stocks [4]. - Internally, the ongoing AI wave and breakthroughs in core technologies like large models and cloud computing among domestic tech companies have significantly contributed to the strong performance of key tech stocks [4]. Group 3: Index Composition and Strategy - The China Internet 50 Index is characterized by a "head concentration + low-frequency adjustment" strategy, with over 50% of its weight concentrated in Tencent and Alibaba, and adjustments made semi-annually [7]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index employs a "diversified holding + high-frequency adjustment" strategy, with a maximum weight of 8% per stock and quarterly adjustments, allowing it to quickly capture emerging opportunities [7][8]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index has a middle-ground approach, with a maximum weight of 15% per stock and semi-annual adjustments, benefiting from liquidity premiums due to the inclusion of mainland investors [8]. Group 4: Industry Composition - The China Internet 50 Index focuses primarily on internet companies, with over 90% of its components in social media, e-commerce, and online entertainment, making it highly dependent on the internet industry cycle [9][10]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has a balanced layout with approximately 55% in internet and over 40% in hard tech sectors like semiconductors and new energy vehicles [10]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index features a more diversified industry coverage, including hard tech, internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on growth [11]. Group 5: Valuation Analysis - As of September 16, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the China Internet 50 Index is 21.11, placing it in the 18.01% historical percentile, indicating it is at a historical low [15]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has a PE ratio of 24.24, in the 35.07% historical percentile, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index has a PE ratio of 25.84, in the 53.31% historical percentile [15]. - All three indices are currently at relatively low or reasonably low valuation levels, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [16]. Group 6: Investment Suitability - The China Internet 50 Index is suitable for investors who believe in core assets, benefiting from the certainty of leading companies like Tencent and Alibaba [18]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index is recommended for balanced exposure to both soft and hard tech sectors, with a diversified holding strategy reducing single-industry risk [18]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index is ideal for investors looking to capture multidimensional growth opportunities in technology, with a focus on both growth and liquidity [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the advantages of index funds as a long-term investment strategy, highlighting their ability to capture overall market growth and reduce emotional trading behavior [45][47]. Group 1: Understanding Index Funds - Index funds are designed based on specific selection rules, such as market capitalization or industry, and are known as passive funds due to their automatic adherence to these rules [8]. - The most common types of index funds are broad-based and sector-specific funds, with broad-based funds reflecting overall market performance and sector funds representing specific industries [11][13]. - Index funds are often referred to as "immortal" because they continuously adjust their holdings based on selection criteria, ensuring they remain relevant as market conditions change [15][16]. Group 2: Selecting Index Funds - To profit from index investments, it is crucial to identify indices with a growing total market capitalization over time [27]. - In the Chinese market, there are over 2,000 index funds available, and investors should consider broad-based indices like the CSI 300 or A500 if they believe in the overall economic growth [28]. - Sector-specific index funds can be chosen if there is confidence in the sustained growth of a particular industry, but they may carry higher risks due to external factors [32]. Group 3: Investment Timing and Valuation - Before investing in index funds, it is essential to assess the valuation to determine if the current price is reasonable [33]. - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a key indicator for evaluating the profitability of the underlying stocks in an index fund, with lower PE values generally being more favorable [36]. - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio reflects how much investors are willing to pay for each unit of net asset, with lower PB values being preferable, especially for cyclical industries [38]. Group 4: Historical Context and Strategy - Historical percentiles provide context for current valuations, indicating whether the current PE or PB is relatively low or high compared to historical data [43]. - The article concludes that the success of Warren Buffett in his bet against active management can be attributed to the long-term upward trajectory of the S&P 500 and the self-adjusting nature of index funds, making them suitable for ordinary investors [45][47].