风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： rich_homie_young 来源：雪球 手机接口都无法统一，但世界的集装箱从1960年代就已经统一标准成，国际标准化组织（ISO）确立20英尺 和40英尺集装箱并延续至今，从此形成了卡车陆运-海运-港口作业-卡车运输，而这个40英尺的集装箱成为承 载着贸易运输的重要载物。 除了集装箱的标准化，集装箱海运特点是固定船期，固定的港口，固定船期，俗称班轮运输。因此越是标准 化的产品或行业，越容易产生垄断的形成。 注意以上说的是集装箱海运，集装箱运输的产品主要是消费品、工业品、电子、机械等，不包含干散货（铁 矿大宗等）和油运。 公司的壁垒是什么？ （1）行业特许经营：承接一带一路的战略倾斜，中国唯一大型集装箱航运央企。 （2）规模效应：船、集装箱、港口的体量越多，市场占有率越大，公司为全球第四运力。 中远海控AH股已经从4月7日的阶段性低点涨了18%、27%，说明这个标的还是有非常多的资金在高度关注， 周期性和当前的高股息可能是一个显而易见的事实，但更深层面的原因可能是人们自然会关注一个垄断企 业，这也让该公司有很好的 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.80%. The Northbound 50 Index rose by 1.94%. The total market turnover was 10,339 billion, a decrease of 1,487 billion from the previous day, with nearly 3,800 stocks rising in the market [1]. Sector Performance - The controllable nuclear fusion, gaming, and beverage manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the innovative drug sector experienced the largest declines [2]. BYD's Market Movement - BYD, a company with a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion, saw its stock plunge by 9%. The automotive sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks collectively declined, with BYD down nearly 6% in A-shares and close to 9% in Hong Kong stocks. Other companies like Seres, Great Wall Motors, and SAIC also faced declines [4][5]. - Recently, BYD announced a limited-time promotional event for its "618" sales, with 22 models seeing price cuts of up to 53,000 yuan, leading to concerns about a price war in the automotive market. Analysts noted that this could exert significant pressure on the market [7]. - Morgan Stanley indicated that BYD's announcement of price discounts signals substantial pressure in the terminal market, which may lead to increased pessimism among investors as they expect stock prices to revert to fundamentals. However, some users on the Snowball App believe that the price war could help solidify the leading position of industry leaders like BYD [8]. Controllable Nuclear Fusion Sector - The controllable nuclear fusion concept saw gains against the trend, with stocks like Hezhan Intelligent, Yongding Co., and others hitting the daily limit. Reports indicate that the U.S. plans to initiate the construction of 10 large nuclear power plants by 2030, which may accelerate domestic industry advancements [9][10]. - Analysts believe that the global market for controllable nuclear fusion is on the verge of explosion, with China entering the first tier internationally. However, challenges such as high costs and reliance on government or research projects for commercial orders remain significant hurdles [12]. Currency Impact on Stock Market - Goldman Sachs reported that for every 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the Chinese stock market could rise by approximately 3%. The report highlights that the current trade tensions have shown the resilience of the RMB, which is expected to benefit the stock market due to improved corporate profit outlooks and increased foreign capital inflows [14][15]. - Historical data suggests a positive correlation between RMB appreciation and stock market performance, with a 35% average correlation since 2012. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the RMB will reach 7.20, 7.10, and 7.00 against the USD in the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively [16].

来源：雪球 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：红鑫24 核心就在于 ， 传统行业利润稳定 ， 绝对估值低 ， 分红高 ， 特别是分红复投的威力不容小视 。 标题 ， 更严谨一些应该是 ， 大部分成长股不适合大部分人 。 过去 ， 我对成长股关注多一些 ， 认为成长股的投资回报更好 ， 现在的很多人也是这样看问题的 。 所以 ， 往后原则上都不再考虑进入门槛低的阶段性成长股 。 只考虑绝对估值低 ， 分红好的 ， 优质行业的龙头公司 。 首先要优质 ， 其次是绝对估值底 ， 分红好 。 比如 ， 长电 ， 神华 ， 陕煤 ， 茅台 ， 五粮液 ， 中海油 。 比如我之前持有的 ， 人福医药 ， 派林生物 ， 赛力斯 ， 光迅科技等 。 这些公司 ， 阶段性的成长性都是不错的 ， 我也取得了一定的投资回报 。 但长期看利润稳定性不 行 ， 另外就是绝对估值偏高 ， 并且持有过程的体验真的不大好 。 实际上 ， 按照合伙生意思维 ， 大部分人会优先考虑稳定性 ， 其次才是未来的空间 。 以上公司不大行 ， 主要是几方面 ， 一是大部分商业模式不行(赚钱是否容 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between stock market valuations and company performance, highlighting that market capitalization can significantly outpace actual earnings growth, as seen in the cases of 阳光电源 and 寒武纪 [2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Valuation - 阳光电源's stock price increased over 20 times from around 6.0 to over 120 within 14 months, reaching a market cap of over 200 billion, despite experiencing a 28% decline in net profit during its peak [2]. - 寒武纪's stock saw a rise to over 800, reflecting a 16-fold increase, while its revenue showed minimal growth and continued losses until a turning point in Q1 2025 [2]. - Both companies' market valuations have led their performance by at least two years, indicating a disconnect between market expectations and actual financial results [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Valuation Logic - The phenomenon of market valuations outpacing earnings is not unique to A-shares; it is also observed in U.S. stocks like Amazon and Tesla, which saw significant market caps despite not generating profits [4]. - The article emphasizes that price-to-earnings (PE) ratios reflect future value creation expectations, while financial reports provide a retrospective view of performance [5][6]. - The relationship between valuation and financial performance varies with industry development stages; in early growth phases, valuations can lead financial performance by a considerable margin [8][11]. Group 3: Industry Development Stages - In stable industries, financial reports can predict future value more accurately, while in rapidly growing sectors, the correlation between financial performance and valuation weakens [8]. - The transition from high growth to stable growth can trigger a shift in valuation logic, as seen with 阳光电源's stock price decline starting in H2 2021 [8]. - Companies like 比亚迪 and 宁德时代 demonstrate a different pattern, where their valuations and financial performance have been in sync during stable growth phases, reflecting market confidence in their competitive positions [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Insights - The article concludes that understanding the stage of industry development and a company's competitive strength is crucial for investors, especially in early-stage industries where valuations may not align with current earnings [14]. - The focus should be on both industry development levels and company competitiveness, as these factors are essential for long-term investment success [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in the yield of the US 10-year Treasury bond, reaching 4.6%, and the associated media narratives of a "bond crash" and "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, suggesting that these narratives may be exaggerated or sensationalized [2][4][6]. Group 1: Data Insights - Data 1: As of March 2025, foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a historical high, indicating that the narrative of a "bond crash" began only after the imposition of tariffs in April [8][9]. - Data 2: In March, the UK surpassed China to become the second-largest holder of US Treasuries, while many countries continue to increase their purchases despite China selling off some of its holdings [13][14]. - Data 3: China's holdings of US short-term securities reached the highest level since 2009 in March, suggesting ongoing interest in US debt [17]. Group 2: Current Challenges for US Treasuries - Challenge 1: Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1 in early May, which is seen as a normal reaction amid global economic slowdown and uncertainty [20][22]. - Challenge 2: The recent auction of 20-year Treasury bonds was disappointing, with a winning yield of 5.047%, higher than the average of the past six auctions, indicating increased investor demand for higher returns due to perceived risks [23][24]. - Challenge 3: Rising yields on Japanese government bonds, driven by high inflation and a hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan, may reduce Japanese demand for US Treasuries as local yields become more attractive [30][32]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The recent PMI data for May showed a reading of 52, indicating economic expansion, which aligns with the rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets anticipate continued growth and reduced rate cut expectations [36][38]. - The article suggests that the current yield of around 4.5% on US Treasuries may present a value opportunity for investors, as many analysts believe the yield is at a high point with limited upside potential [39][42]. - The author emphasizes the importance of understanding the US inventory cycle, which may influence economic conditions and subsequently affect Treasury yields, particularly as the market anticipates a potential shift to a "de-inventory" phase later in 2025 [46][49].

Core Viewpoint - A strong balance sheet significantly reduces company risk and ensures free cash flow is available for equity holders rather than debt repayment [2] Group 1: Importance of Balance Sheet - Companies with low debt and strong cash flow can be acquired at low valuation multiples, providing a favorable risk-reward scenario [2] - The focus should be on identifying growth businesses that can generate substantial returns with minimal investment [2] Group 2: Buffett's Investment Philosophy - When Warren Buffett invested in Apple, the company had a low price-to-earnings ratio and a crucial business model that promised high future earnings [3] Group 3: Key Indicators for Evaluating Balance Sheets - **Asset Quality Over Size**: Preference for companies with substantial cash reserves, such as Apple and Coca-Cola, indicating risk resilience [4] - **Receivables and Inventory**: Caution against companies with receivables growing faster than revenue or high inventory levels [4] - **Fixed Assets**: Favor light-asset models like Coca-Cola over heavy-asset companies due to slower returns [5] Group 4: Assessing Debt Risks - **Short-term Debt Ratio**: High short-term debt can lead to liquidity crises [6] - **Interest Coverage Ratio**: Net profit should be at least five times the interest expense [7] - **Off-Balance-Sheet Debt**: Attention to hidden liabilities such as leases and pensions [8] Group 5: Link Between Shareholder Equity and Profitability - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: A sustained ROE above 15% indicates competitive advantage [9] - **Retained Earnings Reinvestment**: Importance of reinvesting profits for compound growth [10] Group 6: Industry Characteristics and Moat Verification - **Industry Comparison**: Different industries exhibit varying debt levels; for example, utilities have high debt but stable cash flows [11] - **Moat**: Companies can build competitive advantages through brand strength, cost advantages, or patents [12] Group 7: Financial Statement Analysis - **Free Cash Flow**: Profits must convert into free cash flow to manage risks effectively [13] - **Profit Authenticity**: Warning against profit growth without corresponding cash flow, which may indicate financial manipulation [14] Group 8: Margin of Safety and Simplification Principles - **Low Leverage**: Preference for companies with debt ratios below industry averages [15] - **Financial Transparency**: Avoidance of complex financial instruments in favor of companies with clear structures [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the "Market Earnings Ratio" (市赚率) as a valuation parameter for investment decisions, particularly in the context of high-end liquor stocks like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. It suggests that significant investment should only occur when "bloody chips" (带血筹码) appear, indicating a substantial drop in stock prices and potential for recovery [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Earnings Ratio - The "Market Earnings Ratio" is defined as PR = PE / ROE / 100, where PE is the price-to-earnings ratio and ROE is the return on equity. This ratio helps identify undervalued stocks [2][4]. - Historical analysis shows that Kweichow Moutai's market earnings ratio only exceeded 2 PR during the 2007 bull market and in 2021, indicating periods of overvaluation [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The first strategy involves investing in Kweichow Moutai at a 60% discount, Wuliangye at 50%, and Luzhou Laojiao at 40% if their performance remains stable, aiming for valuation recovery with a potential doubling of investment [4][5]. - The second strategy suggests increasing investment to 20% or 30% when stock prices and performance decline, focusing on price anchoring rather than performance metrics. For example, if Kweichow Moutai's stock price drops to 1250 yuan, it represents a 50% discount [5][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article discusses the potential for high returns when "bloody chips" appear, referencing past instances where significant drops led to substantial recoveries, but cautions that replicating such scenarios may be challenging [6]. - It highlights the unique high-margin characteristics of premium liquor stocks, suggesting that while there is widespread recognition of their investment value, opinions on specific pricing vary significantly [6].

哈佛被特朗普强制退学了？ 5月22日，特朗普对哈佛大学下达了一道行政禁令：禁止哈佛招收国际学生，并要求现有近7000名国际学生必须转学，否则将失去合法身份！ 目前 哈佛大学已向联邦法院提起诉讼 。 与此同时，包括香港科技大学在内的多所高校已主动向受影响学生伸出援手，开设快速录取通道、提供学术 转接支持。 过往特朗普与哈佛等高校的"积怨"较久，这不是哈佛首次被特朗普针对…… 01 特朗普清退全体哈佛留学生！ 全球排名第一的哈佛大学官网上，国际学生申请入口被替换成一则冰冷公告："请立即联系其他院校转学。" 根据哈佛大学的数据， 2024-2025学年，哈佛共有6,793名国际学生，占总学生人数的约27%，他们来自140多个国家和地区，其中大多数在攻读研 究生课程。这些学生每年贡献3.84亿美元学费，支撑3900个就业岗位。 其中本科、研究生和访问学者群体的中国学生约有800-1200人。 特朗普一纸禁令，不仅将重创常春藤学术生态，更将引发数十亿美元经济损失。法新社评论称，这是"美国学术自由史上最黑暗的的星期四"。 02 特朗普的报复 这背后是特朗普和哈佛长期"积怨"爆发。 特朗普重返白宫后，猛烈抨击以哈佛为代表的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment in ultra-high voltage (UHV) new energy base projects primarily consists of three components: UHV transmission lines, peak-shaving power sources, and new energy sources. The profitability of these projects is heavily influenced by electricity price differentials and the capacity utilization of the transmission lines [2][3][4]. Group 1: UHV Transmission Lines - UHV transmission lines are typically funded by the power grid, with some contributions from receiving provinces. The return on investment is mainly derived from transmission fees, which are fixed per kilowatt-hour. The project must achieve at least 80% of its designed capacity to avoid losses, and to meet expected returns, it should exceed 90% [2]. - The transmission fee cannot exceed the regional electricity price differential; for instance, the price difference between Shaanxi (0.34) and Anhui (0.4) is 0.06. If the transmission fee exceeds this differential, the project loses economic viability [2]. Group 2: Peak-Shaving Power Sources - Peak-shaving power sources are primarily coal-fired power plants, typically configured to 50% of the full transmission capacity, with an annual utilization of 5000 hours [3]. Group 3: New Energy Sources - New energy sources, such as wind and solar, are configured based on their annual utilization hours. For example, if the average annual utilization is 2500 hours, the installed capacity should be double that of the peak-shaving coal power [3]. Group 4: Current Issues - The uneven output of new energy sources and the inadequacy of the current pricing mechanism make it challenging for new energy base projects to be profitable. To ensure the design return of new energy projects, it is necessary to reduce the curtailment of wind and solar energy, which in turn affects the utilization hours of peak-shaving coal power and the transmission volume of UHV lines [4]. - If the profitability of peak-shaving coal power and UHV lines is to be maintained, a significant increase in wind and solar capacity is required. This would lead to higher curtailment rates for wind and solar projects, and under the current pricing mechanism, electricity prices are likely to decline, making it difficult for new energy projects to be profitable [4]. Group 5: Energy Storage Consideration - While energy storage could theoretically smooth out the output of wind and solar energy, the question remains: who will bear the costs? [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth of fixed income plus (固收+) products, particularly from Tianhong Fund, and emphasizes the importance of controlling drawdowns in investment strategies during market fluctuations [2][3][6]. Group 1: Growth of Fixed Income Plus Products - The equity market's strength often correlates with the significant development of fixed income plus products, as evidenced by Tianhong's nearly doubled product offerings in 2022 compared to 2021, which was a peak in the previous bull market [3]. - Tianhong's fixed income plus funds have shown varying annual returns over the past decade, with a notable average return of 14.88% in 2015 and a decline to -3.59% in 2022, highlighting the volatility in performance [4][8]. Group 2: Importance of Drawdown Control - The ability to control drawdowns in fixed income plus products becomes increasingly critical during market transitions, as demonstrated by Tianhong's only negative annual return occurring in 2022, when the average return for the entire market was -3.15% [6]. - The article stresses that for investors, the primary goal is capital preservation and achieving better returns than traditional savings, making drawdown control a priority over potential returns [6][11]. Group 3: Assessment and Evaluation Framework - The assessment of fixed income plus products should focus on the overall performance rather than solely on the investment methodology or the fund manager's capabilities [9][10]. - Tianhong's evaluation framework includes key indicators such as risk-adjusted returns (e.g., Sharpe Ratio), maximum drawdown control, and the time taken to recover from drawdowns, which are essential for maintaining a robust investment strategy [12][13][14].