预计阅读时间：4分钟 经济学有一个很知名的法则，叫做"帕累托法则"，也被称作 "二八定律"，意思是在多数场景中，约 20% 的投入会产生 80% 的产出，或 20% 的关键变量主导 80% 的结果。 当然，这里的"20%" 和 "80%" 是概数，核心是少数关键因素贡献大部分结果，体现"不平衡分布" 的本质。 投资亦然，投资是一件回报分布不均匀的事情。一方面，80%的收益，往往由20%的关键时间所创造；另一方面，80%的收 益，往往由20%的优质企业创造的。 这揭示了一个深刻真相：财富的积累取决于少数关键决策的正确性，以及保持"在场"， 不要错过那20%的回报期， 享受正 确决策带来的复利增长。 01 价值投资者的帕累托效应 巴菲特曾坦言："如果你不打算持有一只股票十年，那就连十分钟也不要持有。"价值投资总是将80%的精力寻找那20%真正具备 持续竞争优势的企业。这一视角促使投资者忽略市场短期噪音，将注意力聚焦于企业的核心"慢变量"：商业模式是否可持续、行业 格局是否稳固、企业文化是否优秀、现金流是否健康等。 保持"在场"：不要错过20%的回报期 在时间维度上，投资中的帕累托效应更是显然。以美国标普500指数 ...

来源 | 财联社 整理自BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY 巴菲特先生致全体股东的信函全文如下： 致我的股东朋友们： 从今年起，我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告，也不会再在年度股东大会上长篇大论。正如英国人所说，我要" 归于 沉寂 "（go quiet）了。 ——嗯，算是吧。 格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）将在年底接任CEO职位。他是一位出色的管理者、不知疲倦的工作者，也是一个诚实的 沟通者。祝他任期长久。 我会继续通过每年的"感恩节信"与大家以及我的孩子们谈谈伯克希尔。伯克希尔的个人股东是一群特别的人，他们乐 于与不幸者分享自己的财富。我珍惜这种联系。请允许我今年稍作回顾，然后谈谈我打算如何分配我的伯克希尔股 票，最后说几句关于事业和人生的感想。 回顾与感恩 预计阅读时间：10分钟 | 周一（11月10日）美股盘中，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司在官网发布了沃伦·巴菲特最新的捐赠决定以及他最后一封 | | --- | | 致股东信。 | | 巴菲特开头以一句英式表达 "I'm 'going quiet'"，为自己长达 60 年的传奇投资生涯画上句号。他回顾了自己 | | 的一生，并分享自己成功最大的秘密：好运。 ...

来源 | 科普中国、 上海市科学技术协会、彭博新闻 等 预计阅读时间：8分钟 "稀土"对于很多人来说，既熟悉，又陌生。熟悉是因为在 国际新闻中，"稀土"这个词频繁出现，成为大国博弈的焦点； 陌 生是因为不知道稀土到底是什么？ 它 有何魔力？为何能让世界各国如此重视？ 本文将带大家简单解答以上问题。 01 什么是稀土？ 稀土是地球上最重要的原材料之一，深深植根于支撑现代生活的技术中。然而， 稀土指的并不是某一种物质，而是17种金属元素 的统称，它包括镧（La）、铈（Ce）、镨(Pr)、钕(Nd)、钷(Pm)、钐(Sm)、铕(Eu)、钆(Gd)、铽(Tb)、镝(Dy)、钬(Ho)、铒 (Er)、铥(Tm)、镱(Yb)、镥(Lu)，以及与镧系的15个元素密切相关的2个元素钪（Sc）和钇（Y），是一种不可再生资源。 1794年，芬兰化学家加多林从一块形似沥青的重质矿石中分离出第一种稀土"元素"。由于18世纪时技术有限，发现的稀土矿物较少，当 时只能用化学法制得少量不溶于水的氧化物，历史上习惯地把这种氧化物称为"土"，因而得名稀土。 因此，稀土尽管名字中有个"土"，但是跟我们印象中的土壤并没有什么关系。 稀土有哪些用途 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that success is not about doing more but about doing the right things, advocating for strategic rest and a "subtractive thinking" approach to enhance creativity, decision-making, and performance [5][29]. Group 1: The Science of Doing Less - The brain is not designed for continuous output; cognitive abilities sharply decline after 90 minutes of focused work, necessitating regular breaks [7]. - Ignoring the need for breaks leads to decision fatigue, mental fog, and burnout, which ultimately reduce work efficiency [8]. - Historical innovators like Einstein and Steve Jobs utilized strategic breaks to activate their brain's default mode network, fostering problem-solving and creativity [9][11]. Group 2: Subtractive Thinking - High performers often mistakenly adopt an additive mindset, believing that achieving more requires doing more, which complicates their success [13][14]. - A study from the University of Virginia found that people tend to overlook subtractive solutions, even when removing certain elements could yield better results [14]. - Practical changes include eliminating unnecessary meetings, shortening work hours for focused efforts, and mastering proven habits instead of adding new ones [15][16][17]. Group 3: Willpower vs. Flow State - Many believe willpower is the key to success, but it is a limited resource that can lead to exhaustion and poor decision-making [20]. - Achieving a flow state, where work feels effortless and time disappears, can increase efficiency by up to 500% compared to distracted work [20][21]. - To foster flow, one should identify and eliminate energy leaks in daily schedules, focus on deep work sprints, and cultivate subtractive habits [24][25][27]. Group 4: Focus and Distraction Management - The article highlights that multitasking can hinder deep work, suggesting that tasks should be challenging yet balanced to maintain engagement [31]. - Successful individuals prioritize what to focus on rather than how much they do, aligning their efforts with their brain's natural rhythms [30][32].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Housel's new book "The Art of Money" explores how wealth should be used to enhance life, emphasizing that money's greatest benefit is the freedom it provides to live life on one's own terms [2][5][12]. Group 1: The Relationship Between Money and Freedom - Money is closely linked to freedom, with Housel arguing that its primary advantage is the ability to live without needing to please others [5][12]. - Housel shares a story contrasting two sailors, highlighting that one lived under societal expectations while the other chose personal happiness and freedom, illustrating the value of living for oneself [11][12]. Group 2: Practical Strategies for Financial Independence - Housel suggests viewing savings as a "ticket to freedom," where saved money represents the ability to refuse undesirable work and spend time with family [14][18]. - He proposes two strategies: 1. Use money to buy time and create lasting memories through experiences rather than material goods [15]. 2. Treat savings as an investment in independence and security, as exemplified by a former athlete who achieved financial freedom through disciplined saving [16][17]. Group 3: Financial Independence Levels - Housel introduces a 15-level framework for financial independence, ranging from complete reliance on others to total control over one's time and life [20][22]. - Each level represents a degree of control, emphasizing that financial independence is a gradual process where individuals can progress step by step [38][39]. Group 4: The Power of Compound Interest - Housel discusses "silent compounding," illustrating that wealth accumulation is often a slow process that rewards patience and consistency over time [42][43]. - He highlights the importance of starting early, maintaining a steady approach, and minimizing frequent decision-making to maximize the benefits of compounding [49][50]. Group 5: Key Insights on Wealth - Housel emphasizes that money should not define one's identity or worth, but rather serve as a tool to enhance life and achieve personal values [60][66]. - He warns against the pitfalls of constantly chasing what one does not have, advocating for a mindset of contentment and appreciation for what is already possessed [62][64].

Core Insights - The article discusses the paradox of increasing competition leading to "involution" in various industries, despite advancements in technology and innovation [5][6]. - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt highlights the importance of innovation in driving economic growth and addresses the challenges faced by the Chinese economy [6]. Group 1: Mokyr's Insights - Mokyr emphasizes that an innovation ecosystem, consisting of knowledge enlightenment and institutional support, is crucial to countering involution [9][11]. - Historical examples, such as the "Bacon Plan" in the 17th century, illustrate how the dissemination of useful knowledge can spur technological breakthroughs, paralleling China's recent shift towards investing in human capital [10]. - The lack of knowledge dissemination and skill accumulation in certain Chinese industries contributes to low-level repetitive competition, while successful clusters like Zhongguancun and Hangzhou demonstrate the benefits of a supportive innovation ecosystem [10]. Group 2: Aghion and Howitt's Contributions - Aghion and Howitt propose a "U-shaped relationship" between competition and innovation, suggesting that moderate competition can stimulate innovation, while excessive competition can stifle it [12]. - The challenges faced by the Chinese electric vehicle industry exemplify this theory, where excessive price competition has led to reduced R&D investment and innovation [12][13]. - Their research indicates that non-frontier firms are more susceptible to losing motivation in highly competitive environments, highlighting the need for policy interventions to encourage technological advancement [13]. Group 3: Creative Destruction - Aghion and Howitt's "creative destruction" theory posits that innovation must replace outdated capacities to escape the cycle of involution, aligning with the central government's advocacy for new productive forces [14][15]. - The disparity between the largest U.S. companies, which are predominantly tech innovators, and China's A-share market, which lacks significant tech-driven firms, underscores the need for a robust creative destruction mechanism [15]. - Policies should focus on fostering an innovation ecosystem rather than engaging in subsidy competitions, ensuring that subpar capacities exit the market while promoting high-quality competition [15]. Group 4: Conclusion - The insights from the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences suggest that countering involution requires competition to return to a reasonable range to stimulate innovation [16]. - Key strategies include establishing supportive institutions, regulating competition to maintain optimal levels, and encouraging deep technological and model innovation to transition from stagnant markets to new growth opportunities [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in an era of uncertainty, the true long-term winners are not those companies that appear risk-free, but rather those that demonstrate resilience and continuously adapt to challenges [3][4]. Group 1: Understanding Uncertainty - The distinction between risk and uncertainty is highlighted, with risk being quantifiable and insurable, while uncertainty is unpredictable and creates opportunities for entrepreneurs [7][8]. - Current uncertainties include pandemics, natural disasters, financial pressures, trade wars, and geopolitical tensions, which complicate the global economic landscape [10]. Group 2: Resilient Companies - Resilience is defined as the ability of companies to withstand shocks, with financial characteristics such as manageable debt, sufficient gross margins, and consistent cash flow being crucial [18][19]. - Cultural aspects, such as leadership by founders who can make unconventional decisions and drive organizational change, are also important for resilience [18]. Group 3: Examples of Resilient Companies - Shopify is cited as an example of a company that has transitioned to a model that retains about 20% of revenue after covering operational costs, allowing it to remain flexible [20]. - Meta has improved its operational efficiency, positioning itself favorably for better business conditions [20]. - Cloudflare has shown increasing profitability, enabling it to withstand external shocks [21]. Group 4: Creating Opportunities - Resilient companies have the ability to "create their own climate," allowing them to thrive even in challenging environments [23]. - Companies like Ferrari and Oddity demonstrate how innovation and brand strength can drive growth despite industry challenges [24]. Group 5: Focus on Predictable Elements - The article stresses the importance of focusing on predictable trends, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, electric vehicle batteries, and cloud computing, to identify resilient companies [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic investment management and highlights the potential for growth in the asset management industry, particularly in the context of changing market dynamics and investor behavior [1]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The asset management industry is experiencing significant shifts due to evolving investor preferences and regulatory changes, which are driving firms to adapt their strategies [1]. - There is a growing demand for sustainable and responsible investment options, reflecting a broader trend towards ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) considerations among investors [1]. Group 2: Company Insights - The company is positioned to capitalize on these industry trends by enhancing its product offerings and focusing on innovative investment strategies [1]. - Recent performance metrics indicate a strong growth trajectory, with assets under management increasing significantly, showcasing the company's competitive advantage in the market [1].

Core Viewpoint - The realization of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is seen as a certainty, with the ultimate goal being the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) that can self-iterate and surpass human intelligence [2][9]. Group 1: Stages of AI Development - The path to ASI will undergo three stages: "Intelligent Emergence," "Autonomous Action," and "Self-Iteration" [2][6]. - The first stage, "Intelligent Emergence," is characterized by AI's ability to learn from the vast digitalized knowledge of humanity, leading to general conversational abilities and reasoning skills [3][4]. - The second stage, "Autonomous Action," allows AI to perform real-world tasks under human guidance, significantly impacting various industries such as logistics, manufacturing, and finance [4][5]. - The third stage, "Self-Iteration," involves AI connecting to raw data from the physical world and utilizing self-learning mechanisms to enhance its capabilities [6][8]. Group 2: AI Capabilities and Applications - AI's ability to use tools (Tool Use) enables it to perform complex tasks and interact with both digital and physical environments [4][5]. - The enhancement of AI's coding capabilities is crucial for solving more complex problems and automating tasks, paving the way toward AGI [4][10]. - Future AI models will allow users to create agents using natural language, democratizing software development and expanding the potential developer base [10][11]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Market Implications - The emergence of AI Cloud as the next generation of computing infrastructure will require massive computational resources, transitioning from CPU-centric to GPU-centric paradigms [11]. - The future landscape may consist of only a few super AI cloud platforms capable of meeting the vast demands of AI applications across industries [11]. - AI is expected to become a critical commodity, driving productivity and innovation across various sectors, with its capabilities delivered in the form of tokens [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of "disruptive innovation" as a key focus in technological development, rooted in Clayton Christensen's theory from nearly 30 years ago, which continues to inspire new thoughts and reflections among businesses and individuals [3][4]. Summary by Sections About the Book - Christensen's book, published in 1997, remains relevant today, as evidenced by a 2019 study in *Nature* that builds on the concept of disruptive innovation. The book analyzes over 30 years of the hard disk industry, arguing that many companies fail not due to poor management or insufficient R&D, but because well-managed companies lose market share [6][8]. Two Types of Innovation - The author distinguishes between two types of innovation: sustaining innovation, which optimizes existing technologies, and disruptive innovation, which creates new markets and ultimately replaces existing products. Established companies typically engage in sustaining innovation, while startups rely on disruptive innovation to capture market share [7][8]. Reasons for Failure - Mature companies struggle with disruptive innovation due to their entrenchment in existing value networks, which prioritize stable, high-margin customers over uncertain, low-margin emerging markets. This leads to missed opportunities, as illustrated by the example of Seagate's failure to capitalize on the 3.5-inch hard drive due to its focus on desktop computer manufacturers [9][11]. How to Overcome the Innovation Dilemma - To avoid the innovation dilemma, mature companies can adopt three strategies: altering the growth rate of emerging markets, entering markets once they reach a certain scale, or establishing independent units for experimentation. The third option is favored, as it allows for more flexibility and innovation without the constraints of established processes and culture [12][13]. Other Possible Implications - The book's insights may extend beyond corporate management to historical studies, such as the decline of empires, suggesting that bureaucratic inertia and corruption can lead to failure. This cross-disciplinary approach could provide new perspectives on both corporate and historical decline [14][16].