英伟达、亚马逊等相继参与OpenAI的千亿美元融资。分析认为，OpenAI已成为科技巨头估值的命门，若不持续供血或将引发AI逻辑崩塌，科技巨头们 或面临50%-80%的市值缩水。"如果OpenAI减少对超大规模云厂商的承诺支出，他们会损失1万亿美元市值，那朋友之间100亿美元算什么？" 所谓的千亿美金融资，本质上是科技巨头们为了防止AI泡沫破裂而不得不进行的一场自救式"供血"。 当下讽刺的现实是，甲骨文为了筹钱，甚至被迫宣布要卖股票来凑数， 直接把市场焦虑拉满了 。Janus Henderson的信贷研究主管Mike Talaga直言： 2月4日，据The Information资深记者Ken Brown报道，OpenAI正在筹集一笔高达1000亿美元的融资。英伟达可能打算投300亿，亚马逊200亿，软银 300亿，微软也得跟100亿。 在OpenAI 7300亿美元的离谱估值下，这些聪明人为什么抢着送钱，在Brown看来，逻辑非常直白。 银行不信OpenAI了，巨头只能自己上 以前OpenAI很聪明，它自己不借钱，而是让甲骨文（Oracle）、CoreWeave、Vantage数据中心在内的合作伙伴利用自身 ...

2026年刚刚过去一个多月，美股却已经反复上演同一种情景：盘中急跌、情绪失控、但收盘前迅速修复，甚至重返高位。 据追风交易台，德意志银行在最新报告中指出，仅1月以来，标普500指数已经出现至少5次"快速下挫—迅速反弹"的典型案例。 美股2026开年频现"假摔"戏码：标普500已上演5次盘中暴跌后火速反弹，每次都伴随地缘风波、关税恐慌或AI竞争，却次次化险为 夷。德银认为，判断股市是否会进入真正的持续下行，关键在于宏观预期是否发生"结构性下修"。 这些波动往往伴随着地缘政治、关税威胁、科技股恐慌或AI竞争叙事，但几乎都未对大盘造成实质性、持续性的破坏。 在德银看来，这并非偶然，而可能是当前美股正在形成的一种"新常态"。 最新一例软件与AI竞争再起波澜： 受Anthropic新AI工具影响，软件股集体承压，标普500盘中最大跌幅达到1.64%。但与此前类似，尾盘出现明显修复，最终跌幅不足 1%。 五次"假摔"：风险事件频发，但市场拒绝深跌 德银宏观策略师Henry Allen梳理了2026年初以来几次具有代表性的快速回撤： 1月中旬地缘政治风险升温： 标普500在1月12日创出新高后，因市场担忧美国可能介入伊朗局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's panic over software companies is reminiscent of past tech industry reactions, with fears of AI disrupting professional software being exaggerated [3][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - A recent announcement from Anthropic led to a $300 billion drop in the stock market, indicating an overreaction to AI's potential impact on professional software [3]. - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang criticized the assumption that AI will easily replace specialized software, calling it "illogical" [3]. - Historical patterns show that the market often overestimates the ability of tech giants to disrupt specialized fields, as seen in past reactions to Amazon and Google announcements [5]. Group 2: AI Integration in Software - Professional software companies are integrating AI as a feature rather than viewing it as a replacement, with tools like Canva and Replit utilizing AI effectively [6]. - The notion that AI will lead to the demise of software companies is premature, as these companies can become clients of AI solutions rather than competitors [4][6]. - The software industry is expected to face disruption, but it will not lead to a universal downfall, as history has shown both winners and losers emerge from such transformations [6]. Group 3: Psychological Factors in the Market - The market exhibits a lack of stability in the face of AI developments, often reacting with panic to negative news and excessive enthusiasm during positive news [6]. - The hype surrounding AI companies contributes to market volatility, with even AI proponents questioning the validity of doomsday predictions for the software industry [6]. - Huang's analogy about using a screwdriver versus inventing a new one highlights that AI tools are more likely to enhance rather than replace specialized software [6].

德银警告"科技自噬"时代来临：AI投资从普涨转为赢家通吃，多数科技股较高点深度回撤最深达80%。表面繁荣下，标普500仅靠Alphabet单挑大梁 ——其半年飙涨75%、市值暴增1.7万亿美元，而"七巨头"中其他六家均已回调5%到25%不等。德银直言，若更多权重股倒下，风险将外溢至宏观层 市场表面看似风平浪静，实则暗流涌动，德意志银行最新研报揭示了一个残酷的真相：AI 投资狂潮已进入"大清洗"阶段，指数的繁荣可能仅由一家公司 苦苦支撑。 2月4日，德意志银行全球宏观与主题研究主管 Jim Reid 及其团队发布了一份题为《科技自噬》（Tech eats itself）的报告。报告指出，尽管 2026 年 开年市场经历了过山车般的行情，且主要资产类别回报尚可，但在科技股内部，一场剧烈的洗牌正在发生。 德银在报告中直言，虽然标普 500 指数仍接近历史高位，但这在很大程度上归功于资金向防御性板块的轮动以及个别科技巨头的异常表现。过去几个 月，市场明显不再相信"每只科技股都是赢家"。在"真正的赢家与输家版图"下，不少与AI、软件、加密、私募股权敞口相关的标的出现"非常残酷的下 跌"。 Reid 在报告中展示了一张令 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm issued a severe warning for Q2, indicating that the competition for HBM capacity in AI data centers is impacting traditional DRAM supply, leading to significant shortages and forcing smartphone manufacturers to cut orders, with Q2 mobile chip revenue guidance reduced to $6 billion. The CEO emphasized that the overall mobile market size for the fiscal year will directly depend on memory supply availability [1][5][8]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Qualcomm achieved record revenue of $12.3 billion in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with a non-GAAP EPS of $3.50. The QCT (chip business) revenue reached a record $10.6 billion, and automotive revenue grew 15% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, also a historical high [5][28]. - The QCT mobile revenue reached a record $7.8 billion, driven by strong performance from flagship smartphones [38]. - Qualcomm returned $3.6 billion to shareholders, including $2.6 billion in stock buybacks and $949 million in dividends [39]. Group 2: Memory Supply Issues - The memory crisis is attributed to HBM taking precedence over DRAM, leading to industry-wide shortages and price increases that may define the overall mobile industry scale for the fiscal year [6][7][28]. - Qualcomm's CFO noted that several smartphone OEMs are adopting a cautious approach, reducing chip inventory to align with scaled-back production plans due to memory supply constraints [7][39]. - The CEO stated that the entire fiscal year's mobile market size will be determined by memory availability, despite strong end-user demand [8][28]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Qualcomm maintains a solid position in the high-end market, expecting to retain approximately 75% market share for Samsung's upcoming flagship devices [10][12]. - The introduction of ByteDance's AI smartphone is seen as a significant milestone towards "AI-native smartphones," indicating a shift in market dynamics [11][12]. - High-end and ultra-high-end market demand has exceeded expectations, with OEMs likely prioritizing high-margin models in a constrained memory environment [12][28]. Group 4: Diversification and Future Growth - Qualcomm's automotive business is projected to accelerate with an estimated growth rate exceeding 35% in Q2, supported by a long-term supply agreement with Volkswagen Group [13][39]. - In the PC sector, Qualcomm is advancing the Windows on ARM ecosystem, with the Snapdragon X2 Plus platform launched and 150 Snapdragon-powered PCs expected to enter commercial use this year [15][30]. - Qualcomm is making significant strides in the robotics sector, launching the Dragonwing IQ10 series chips aimed at accelerating the commercialization of home, industrial, and humanoid robots [16][33]. Group 5: Data Center Ambitions - Qualcomm reiterated its ambitions in the data center market, focusing on providing specialized inference chips for disaggregated data centers, with substantial revenue expected to materialize by 2027 [18][20]. - The company is executing a dual-line strategy with CPUs based on Oryon and RISC-V architectures, bolstered by the acquisition of Ventana Microsystems [19][34]. - Recent industry developments validate Qualcomm's view that specialized and energy-efficient AI platforms are crucial as inference becomes a key growth driver for data centers [20][34].

谷歌公布2026年资本支出将高达1750-1850亿美元，主要用于服务器和数据中心，全力投入AI军备竞赛。正式确认牵手苹果，开发基于Gemini的下一代 基础模型。针对市场对"AI颠覆SaaS"的恐慌，CEO称Gemini是其"引擎"而非终结者，95%的头部SaaS公司已采用。此外，Gemini App月活突破7.5 亿，谷歌正迈向"代理商务"时代。 " 即便我们一直在提升产能，我们仍然处于供应受限的状态。显然，今年的资本支出是着眼于未来…… 我们在各项服务中看到的需求，无论是DeepMind的未来工 作还是云服务，都异常强劲。因此，我预计全年我们将继续在供应受限的状态下运行。" 阿纳特补充道， 2026年和2025年类似，约60%的资本支出将用于服务器，40%用于数据中心和网络设备等长周期资产。 她同时警告，随着基础设施投 入的增加，折旧费用将显著上升，预计2026年的折旧增长率将进一步加速，这将对利润表构成持续压力。 直面软件股抛售潮：谷歌力挺SaaS，称Gemini是"引擎"而非终结者 Alphabet（谷歌母公司）在周三的财报电话会上释放了明确信号：AI军备竞赛远未结束，甚至刚刚进入"深水区"。虽然Q ...

由于投资者越来越担心人工智能带来的颠覆性影响， 苹果(AAPL.US) 被视为安全的绿洲，其股价走势与科技股和整体市场走势相反。苹果股价 周三收涨2.6%，而以科技股为主的 纳斯达克100指数 下跌1.77%。这意味着苹果股价以自2025年初以来最大幅度的跑赢大盘。这一走势延续 了近期的上涨趋势，本月伊始，苹果股价已累计上涨近6%，而纳斯达克100指数同期则下跌了3.3%。 这种分化既反映了苹果公司的积极发展势头，也反映了科技行业大部分领域日益增长的不确定性。苹果公司上周公布的财报显示，其季 度销售额创下历史新高，且业绩指引也超出预期。与此同时，Alphabet和初创公司 Anthropic 推出的人工智能工具引发了科技股的普 遍抛售，因为投资者担心人工智能服务会蚕食公司的增长。 Eye指出:"苹果公司虽然不是价值股，但也不是高风险股。" Eye称："苹果公司决定不参与人工智能军备竞赛，现在看来比六个月前更明智。它仍然会从人工智能中受益，但它不必被迫背负千亿美 元的债务和资本支出来资助大量的基础设施和项目。" 该公司有望从人工智能的普及中受益，因为像iPhone这样的硬件设备将成为用户访问人工智能服务的核心平 ...

眼下，这场抛售潮正在加速蔓延。2月4日，据彭博援引S3 Partners的数据显示， 在做空者的猛烈攻势下，软件行业整体市值年内已蒸发1万亿美元 。 华尔街主要对冲基金的消息人士透露，投资者正集中火力做空那些提供基础自动化服务、易被新AI工具复制和替代的公司。 与此同时，做空者并未在股价下跌中收手，反而将其视为"下跌中的飞刀"，进一步加大了做空押注。DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria指出， 目前对冲基金 几乎都在净做空软件行业。 软件股的暴跌已引发市场广泛的动荡。iShares科技软件ETF本周下跌8%，今年累计跌幅超过21%，较去年9月创下的历史高点已下挫30%。 微软和甲 骨文今年分别下跌15%和25%，Salesforce、Adobe和ServiceNow跌幅均超过20%。 空头获利丰厚，瞄准"易被替代"标的 软件行业市值年内蒸发1万亿美元。做空者重点瞄准易被AI工具替代的基础自动化服务公司。微软、甲骨文等巨头跌幅超15%，中小软件股跌幅更达30% 以上。空头策略罕见转变，不再回补反而加大做空力度。机构分析师指出，目前对冲基金几乎都在净做空软件行业。 今年以来，华尔街对冲基金通过大举做空软件 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant credit crisis in the U.S. software industry, driven by concerns over AI disrupting traditional software business models, leading to a surge in non-performing loans and a potential "death spiral" in private credit markets [1][2][4]. Group 1: Credit Crisis in the Software Industry - Over the past four weeks, more than $17.7 billion in tech company loans have fallen into non-performing status, with the total non-performing debt in the tech sector soaring to approximately $46.9 billion, the highest level since October 2022 [2][3]. - The crisis, referred to as the "SaaS apocalypse," is particularly affecting the Software as a Service (SaaS) sector, which is seen as vulnerable due to AI's potential to replace traditional software functions [2][4]. - Notable companies facing difficulties include FinThrive and Perforce Software, both backed by private equity firm Clearlake Capital, indicating a broader trend of distress in the software sector [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Private Credit Markets - The private credit market is experiencing dual shocks: the collapse of lending logic to software companies and a decline in the attractiveness of private credit itself [5][7]. - Approximately 14% of the leveraged loan market is exposed to the tech sector, with this figure rising to 20% in private credit, highlighting the significant risk to these markets [2][6]. - The appeal of private credit is diminishing as public market yields rise, making the promised "liquidity premium" less attractive, especially in light of increasing default risks [7][8]. Group 3: Formation of a "Death Spiral" - The current market environment is characterized by panic selling, with a lack of signs of stabilization, leading to a dangerous feedback loop where falling software valuations pressure private credit institutions to tighten lending conditions [8]. - As software companies continue to trade at distressed levels, their access to traditional debt markets becomes increasingly difficult, exacerbating their financial challenges [8].

Core Insights - Alphabet achieved a record quarterly revenue exceeding $400 billion, with significant growth in search, YouTube, and cloud services [3][21] - The launch of Gemini 3 marked a pivotal milestone, driving strong momentum across various business segments [3][4] - The company reported a 17% growth in search revenue, with YouTube's annual revenue surpassing $60 billion and cloud revenue growing by 48% [3][24] Group 1: Financial Performance - Alphabet's total revenue for 2025 reached $403 billion, reflecting a 15% growth year-over-year [21] - In Q4, the company reported a revenue of $113.8 billion, an 18% increase, primarily driven by search and cloud business growth [21][24] - Operating income grew by 16% to $35.9 billion, with an operating margin of 31.6% [22] Group 2: Business Segments - Google Services revenue increased by 14% to $95.9 billion, with search and subscription services contributing significantly [23] - Google Cloud revenue surged by 48% to $17.7 billion, driven by strong demand for enterprise AI products [24][25] - YouTube's advertising revenue grew by 9% to $11.4 billion, supported by direct response advertising [23][38] Group 3: AI and Technology Advancements - The company has integrated AI across its products, enhancing user engagement and driving revenue growth [4][8] - Gemini 3 has become the fastest adopted model in the company's history, with daily token processing volume significantly increasing [5][6] - The AI-driven search features have led to a doubling of daily queries per user in the U.S. since the launch of new functionalities [8] Group 4: Customer Engagement and Subscriptions - Alphabet has over 325 million paid subscribers across its consumer services, with strong growth in Google One and YouTube Premium [3] - The Gemini App has achieved over 750 million monthly active users, reflecting robust user engagement [6][46] - The company has seen a 65% year-over-year increase in customer interactions through Gemini Enterprise [12] Group 5: Future Outlook and Investments - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $175 billion and $185 billion, focusing on AI and infrastructure [4][27] - The company plans to continue investing in AI capabilities to support growth across all business segments [27][43] - Alphabet aims to enhance operational efficiency while meeting the increasing demand for its services [34][43]