该公司在声明中表示，第四财季营收预计约为14.7亿美元。尽管这高于分析师平均预期的14亿 美元，但部分预测曾高达15亿美元以上。剔除特定项目后，预计每股收益为58美分，高于此前 56美分的预估。 在截至12月31日的第三财季，Arm营收同比增长26%至12.4亿美元，每股收益为43美分，两项 数据均略高于市场平均预期。 芯片设计巨头Arm Holdings Plc(ARM.US)周三发布业绩展望后股价大幅下挫，其营收预测未能满足 近期对人工智能相关企业愈发持怀疑态度的投资者的期望。 Arm主要通过两种方式获得收入：一是向客户授权使用其芯片设计和标准，二是按搭载其技术的 芯片出货量收取专利费。 一个可能的担忧来自授权收入，这被视为客户未来使用Arm产品意愿的风向标。该季度授权收入 为5.05亿美元，低于分析师平均预估的5.2亿美元。 同期专利费收入达7.37亿美元，超出平均预期。Arm表示，与数据中心相关产品的授权收入较去 年同期增长了一倍。 Arm首席执行官Rene Haas在接受采访时表示，市场需求，尤其是数据中心市场的需求已超出预 期。但他对提供公司预期增长幅度的"模糊"长期目标持谨慎态度，更倾向于保持保 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm has provided a conservative outlook for the next quarter, with expected revenues between $10.2 billion and $11 billion and adjusted EPS between $2.45 and $2.65, which is below analyst expectations [1][11]. Financial Performance - In the first fiscal quarter of 2026, Qualcomm reported revenues of $12.25 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $12.18 billion. However, adjusted net income decreased by 1% to $3.78 billion, and adjusted EPS rose by 3% to $3.50, exceeding analyst expectations of $3.40 [2][4]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the CDMA Technologies segment generated $10.61 billion, with mobile chip revenue at $7.82 billion (up 3% year-over-year), automotive chip revenue at a record $1.10 billion (up 15%), and IoT revenue at $1.69 billion (up 9%) [4][5][7]. Market Concerns - Qualcomm's weak guidance has heightened market concerns regarding storage chip shortages leading to price increases, which may further suppress smartphone demand. Following the earnings announcement, Qualcomm's stock fell nearly 10% in after-hours trading [2][3]. - The company noted that while there is still demand for high-end smartphones, some customers are reducing production due to tight storage chip supply and rising prices, which could lead to lower-than-expected smartphone output [11]. Strategic Initiatives - Qualcomm is focusing on diversifying its business by increasing sales of chips for automotive, personal computers, and data centers, although these new business areas are not yet large enough to offset the slowdown in the mobile chip market [11]. - The company is also attempting to enter the lucrative AI data center component market, with plans to launch a new product line aimed at competing with Nvidia. Initial shipments are expected next year, with the first customer being an AI startup supported by the Saudi Arabian government [11].

Core Viewpoint - AMD's stock price plummeted despite reporting better-than-expected Q4 earnings, raising concerns about its ability to compete in the AI chip market against Nvidia and the impact of its revenue guidance for Q1 [4][5][6]. Financial Performance - AMD reported Q4 revenue of $10.3 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, surpassing the analyst consensus of $9.65 billion [5]. - Adjusted EPS for Q4 was $1.53, exceeding the expected $1.32 by nearly 16% [5]. - The data center business grew 39% year-over-year to $5.38 billion, significantly above the expected $4.97 billion [5]. Market Concerns - Despite strong Q4 results, AMD's Q1 revenue guidance of approximately $9.8 billion fell short of some analysts' expectations, leading to disappointment in the market [4][5]. - Concerns were raised about AMD's ability to compete effectively in the AI chip market, especially without a boost from the Chinese market [3][4][5]. - The stock's high forward P/E ratio of 33.16 indicates that any execution missteps could lead to significant price adjustments [4][6]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts expressed mixed views, with some noting that AMD's revenue from the Chinese market was unexpected and did not significantly exceed expectations [6]. - AMD's CEO maintained an optimistic outlook, projecting AI revenue to reach hundreds of billions by 2027 and indicating strong demand for data center chips [6][7]. - Some analysts believe the recent stock drop may present a buying opportunity, suggesting that the market's reaction may be overly cautious [8][9]. Future Outlook - AMD's agreements with OpenAI and Oracle reflect growing interest in its MI series AI accelerators, with significant deployments expected in the future [7]. - Analysts have set target prices for AMD stock between $280 and $300, indicating potential upside of 40% to 50% from current levels [9]. - The upcoming launch of the Helios rack-scale solution is anticipated to drive significant growth [9].

周三存储芯片股的调整并没有单一的"黑天鹅"，闪迪的基本面突然转坏，科技股抛售时，闪迪等AI引爆存储需求叙事的大赢家回撤更剧烈。闪迪股价半 年内已至少累涨超1100%，上周发布财报后，截至本周二，股价三日累涨近29%。 本周二软件股掀起的科技板块抛售正在蔓延，最近受到热捧的存储芯片制造商遭遇"集体踩踏"。 存储芯片呈现明显的"高位股补跌+资金兑现"的特征。到午盘，闪迪、西部数据、美光科技盘中均跌超10%，希捷科技跌超9%。 为何闪迪等存储芯片股大跌？市场在担心什么？表面上看，周三存储芯片股的调整并没有单一的"黑天鹅"，更像是多重因素叠加后的集中回撤： 大盘风 险偏好转弱、个股此前涨幅过大、估值与预期被推至极端位置，最终引发获利盘和短线资金踩踏式撤离。 资金轮动放大科技板块回撤 闪迪遭遇高位获利了结 周三早盘美股科技股走弱，市场情绪偏谨慎。对高贝塔的半导体板块而言，一旦指数回调、资金转向防御，最容易被优先抛售的往往是： 涨幅最大、 估值最贵、投资者押注 最拥挤、 期权杠杆最重 的品种。 而存储芯片正处在这一典型位置：此前在"AI带来内存/存储需求爆发"的叙事中持续上行，一旦风向变化，回撤也更剧烈。 在这一轮存储行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin prices have been declining, reaching the lowest level since Trump's presidency, with further downside risks anticipated for the year based on market predictions [1] Group 1: Bitcoin Price Movement - Bitcoin has retraced approximately 40% since hitting a historical high of over $126,000 in October last year, currently priced around $73,200 [3] - The Polymarket platform indicates an 82% probability that Bitcoin will drop to $65,000 this year, which is about 13% lower than the current price [3] - There is a 60% chance of Bitcoin falling below $55,000, while the probability of it rebounding to $100,000 has decreased from 80% to 54% since the beginning of the year [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Dynamics - The current market sentiment is predominantly bearish, reflecting a failure of Bitcoin to act as a safe-haven asset [4] - Following a significant market crash last October that led to the liquidation of billions in leveraged positions, the overall sentiment in the crypto market has remained low [4] - Recent sell-offs have further exacerbated the negative market outlook [4] Group 3: Market Capitalization and Investment Trends - The total market capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market is approximately $2.5 trillion, down significantly from over $4 trillion last October [5] - The outflow of funds from crypto ETFs has been notable, with nearly $4 billion in net outflows over the past three months [5] - Analysts have observed that average traders are currently in a state of loss, indicating a challenging environment for investors [5] Group 4: Diverging Predictions - There is a stark contrast between the predictions from the prediction markets and some bullish views from Wall Street, with notable investors like Tom Lee previously forecasting Bitcoin could rise to between $150,000 and $200,000 [5] - Despite some institutions lowering their forecasts, they still anticipate Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of the year, betting on a significant market rebound [5]

Core Viewpoint - Amgen reported strong performance in 2025 with a 10% year-over-year growth in revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share, driven by its cholesterol-lowering drug, Leqvio, and a robust pipeline of innovative therapies [5][10][12]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2025 reached $36.751 billion, a 10% increase from $33.424 billion in 2024 [12]. - Product sales also grew by 10% to $35.148 billion, accounting for over 90% of total revenue [12]. - Non-GAAP net income rose to $11.837 billion, reflecting a 10% increase, with non-GAAP EPS reaching $21.84, up 10% from the previous year [12][13]. - Free cash flow for the year was $8.1 billion, supporting R&D investments and shareholder returns, with dividends per share increasing by 6% to $2.38 [13]. R&D Pipeline - Amgen invested $7 billion in R&D in 2025, focusing on four therapeutic areas: general medicine, rare diseases, inflammation, and oncology [16]. - The pipeline includes significant programs such as MariTide for chronic weight management and Repatha for cardiovascular outcomes, with multiple Phase 3 studies ongoing [24][27]. - MariTide has shown promising Phase 2 results, maintaining weight loss in patients and demonstrating safety [24][26]. Product Performance - In general medicine, Repatha achieved $3.016 billion in sales, a 36% increase, while EVENITY grew by 34% to $2.1 billion [66]. - Rare disease products UPLIZNA and TAVNEOS saw explosive growth, with UPLIZNA's sales increasing by 73% to $655 million [68]. - In the inflammation sector, TEZSPIRE's sales grew by 52% to $1.478 billion, despite declines in other products due to biosimilar competition [71]. Market Outlook - For 2026, Amgen set a revenue guidance of $37.0 billion to $38.4 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $21.60 to $23.00, reflecting confidence in core product growth and pipeline advancements [76][77]. - Key growth drivers include the clinical advancement of MariTide and Olpasiran, expansion of existing products like Repatha and TEZSPIRE, and continued growth in the rare disease segment [77]. Strategic Positioning - Amgen's 2025 performance underscores the importance of innovation and a strong pipeline in the competitive biopharmaceutical market [78]. - The company maintains a dual focus on deepening its core therapeutic areas while strategically expanding its pipeline through acquisitions and collaborations [78].

Core Insights - Alphabet's Q4 revenue increased by 18% year-over-year, reaching a record high of $113.8 billion, exceeding analyst expectations by over 2% [7][31] - The company's R&D expenses surged by 42% due to AI investments, and despite a one-time $2.1 billion Waymo compensation expense, the operating margin remained above 30% [18][11] - Google Cloud revenue grew by 48% to $17.7 billion, significantly surpassing analyst expectations, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure and solutions [23][7] - Alphabet's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set at $175 billion to $185 billion, more than 50% higher than market expectations, indicating a strong commitment to AI [31][3] Financial Performance - Q4 EPS was $2.82, reflecting a 31% year-over-year increase, which was above market expectations [10][7] - Operating profit for Q4 rose by 16% to $35.9 billion, with an operating margin of 31.6%, despite the impact of the Waymo compensation expense [11][12] - Net profit increased by 30% to $34.5 billion, aided by other income contributions, including a $2.3 billion gain from equity investments [15][11] Business Segment Performance - Google Cloud emerged as the standout performer, with a 48% revenue increase, and its operating profit reached $5.3 billion, significantly exceeding analyst forecasts [23][7] - Google Services revenue grew by 14% to $95.9 billion, with advertising revenue also increasing by 14% to $82.3 billion, surpassing expectations [26][28] - Other Bets revenue declined by 7.5% to $37 million, falling short of analyst predictions [27] Strategic Outlook - Alphabet's substantial capital expenditure plans reflect its aggressive stance in the AI race, with CEO Sundar Pichai emphasizing the importance of AI investments for future growth [31][3] - The release of the Gemini 3 AI model and partnerships, such as with Apple, are expected to enhance Alphabet's competitive position in the AI landscape [31][3] - The company faces challenges from competitors like OpenAI, necessitating continued innovation and investment in cloud and search advertising to maintain momentum [5][18]

面对市场激烈竞争与2026年销售下滑预期，诺和诺德CEO坦言明星减肥药Wegovy降价对财务造成"痛苦"影响，但旨在以价换量。为稳定信 心，公司宣布启动最高38亿丹麦克朗的股票回购，并计划派发股息，同时寄望于新款口服Wegovy片剂能推动未来增长。 丹麦制药巨头诺和诺德正面临近十年来最严峻的业绩挑战，公司预计2026年销售额将显著下滑，市场竞争正日趋激烈。 2月4日，公司CEO Mike Doustdar直言， 公司将在2026年遭遇"前所未有的定价压力"，明星减肥药Wegovy在美国的降价对财务影响"痛苦"， 但此举意在换取更广泛的市场覆盖与长期发展。 此前，诺和诺德发布的2026年业绩展望大幅低于市场预期 ，预计全年销售额按固定汇率计将下降5%至13%，远超分析师预期的约1.4%降幅。 悲观指引引发股价显著波动，财报公布后，纽交所上市的诺和诺德美国存托凭证盘中曾短暂暂停交易，恢复交易后，临近美股午盘时跌幅即超 过10%，收跌14.6%。悲观情绪在盘后持续传导至欧洲市场，其欧股股价下挫18%。 BMO资本市场分析师埃文·西格曼指出，虽然诺和诺德上一季度营收和利润均超出市场预期，但 "疲软的2026年业绩指引 ...

AMD最新发布的2025年第四季度财报虽在营收上超出市场预期，但其背后亮眼的数字并未能完全打 消华尔街的疑虑。核心在于， 公司运营支出超出预期，持续限制着盈利能力的释放，市场正将关注焦 点转向其能否在下半年凭借机架规模AI产品实现关键性突破。 据摩根士丹利、高盛等多家华尔街投行分析，AMD第四季度实现营收103亿美元，同比增长34%，环 比增长11%，显著超越市场普遍预期的96.7亿美元。然而，市场认为这一业绩中包含了约3.9亿美元的 一次性特殊销售收入，剔除此因素后，其营收增长实质仅略高于业绩指引的上限。 业绩增长的核心驱动力仍是数据中心业务 ，该部门四季度收入达53.8亿美元，环比增长24%。值得注 意的是，若剔除前述一次性收入，其环比增速将降至约15%。其中，服务器CPU业务受AI需求推动， 环比增长约10%，创下历史新高；数据中心GPU收入则环比劲增约40%至27.5亿美元，主要得益于新 一代MI355X产品的产能持续提升。 华尔街多数报告认为，AMD2025年Q4营收虽超预期，但市场关注点聚焦于持续超出预期的运营支 出，认为其限制了盈利能力的释放。关键看点转向公司能否在今年下半年凭借新一代机架级AI ...

Lumentum披露已收到一笔数亿美元的CPO扩展订单，预计将在2027年下半年出货。同时，OCS业务积压订单超过4亿美元，有望比预期提前两个季度 达到单季1亿美元规模。大摩将Lumentum目标价从350美元上调至420美元，但维持与大盘持平评级。分析师指出，尽管公司基本面强劲，但股价已反 映2027日历年每股收益约20美元的乐观预期，当前25倍市盈率估值已较为充分。 光通信巨头Lumentum交出了一份堪称"炸裂"的第二财季成绩单，不仅在传统指标上全面超预期，更在AI算力基础设施的关键技术路径上给出了实锤指 引，获得数亿美元规模订单。这家公司正在兑现华尔街看涨者的预期，尽管估值已经充分反映乐观预期。 摩根士丹利分析师Meta A Marshall和Mary B Lenox发布最新研报称，Lumentum第二财季非GAAP毛利率达到42.5%，较分析师预期的38.6%高出385 个基点，主要得益于产品组合优化和EML激光器定价提升。这一表现推动公司每股收益达到1.67美元，远超预期的1.38美元。 如果说当下的业绩由EML支撑，那么Lumentum的估值溢价则完全来自于对未来AI网络架构的押注——OCS和C ...