[table_product] 相关研究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年2月10日 标配 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [Table_NewTitle] 北美云厂商资本开支持续高增，海外科 技股24Q4业绩多数回暖 ——电子行业周报2025/2/3-2025/2/9 [table_main] 投资要点： 电 子 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 [table_invest] 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 （20240923-20240929） 1. 全球及国内2024Q4智能手机出货 量同比增长，行业弱复苏格局持续 ——电子行业周报（2025/1/13- 2025/1/19） 2. RTX 50系列GPU发布，台积电四 季度营收超预 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月10日 标配 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 1.以旧换新效果显著，储能景气度持 续 — — 电 池 及 储 能 行 业 周 报 （2025/01/13-2025/01/19） 2.光伏硅片排产有望上行，关注深远 海海风发展进程——新能源电力行 业周报（2025/01/13-2025/01/17） 3.特锐德（300001）：2024业绩超预 期，充电量同比高增——公司简评报 告 [Table_NewTitle 光伏节后产业链价格维稳 ] ，多地将海风 项目纳入重点建设清单 ——新能源电力行业周报（2025/02/05-2025/02/07） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现： 本周（02/05-02/07）申万光伏设备板块上涨7.78%，跑赢沪深300指数5.8个百分点，申 万风电设备板块上涨1.42%，跑输沪深300指数0.5 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月10日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250210 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] 核心观点：春节错位影响下，1 月 CPI 回升，但环比来看弱于历年春节同期，结构上服 务价格仍然明显支撑，核心通胀的稳步回升也受此影响，但消费品价格依然偏弱。鉴于春节 错位对 CPI 的影响通胀较大，2 月同比大概率会回落。PPI 来看，依然处于相对较低水平。 年内通胀水平的回升依然需要政策上的加力，短期关注两会确定的赤字力度、特别国债以及 新增专项债规模。 CPI 环比弱于历年春节同期。CPI 同比虽然有所回升，不过环比 0.7%略弱于 2010 年以 来春节月均值 1.09%。结构上来看，食品偏弱，非食品偏强；实物消费品偏弱，服务偏强。 ➢ 1. 春节错位影响明显，服务仍 ...

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2025, the CPI year-on-year increased to 0.5%, up from 0.1% in December 2024, while the month-on-month change was 0.7%, compared to 0.0% previously[3] - The PPI year-on-year remained at -2.3%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%[3] CPI Analysis - The January CPI increase was influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival, but the month-on-month growth of 0.7% was weaker than the average of 1.09% for Spring Festival months since 2010[3] - Service prices showed strong performance, with significant increases in airfares (27.8%), transportation rentals (16.0%), tourism (11.6%), and movie tickets (9.6%) month-on-month[3] Core CPI and Consumer Prices - Core CPI rose 0.5% month-on-month, reaching a year-on-year high of 0.6%, the highest since June 2024, driven mainly by service prices[3] - Consumer goods prices increased by only 0.6% month-on-month, indicating a continued trend of price reductions to boost sales[3] Food Prices - Food prices increased by 1.3% month-on-month, ending a three-month decline, but remained below the average of 3.29% for Spring Festival months since 2010[3] - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw month-on-month increases of 5.9% and 3.3%, respectively, but both were lower than seasonal averages[3] PPI Insights - The PPI month-on-month change of -0.2% was weaker than the 0.04% average for the same period over the past five years[3] - The structure of PPI showed stable living materials but a decrease in production materials, with mining and processing sectors experiencing declines of -0.2% and -0.3% respectively[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, slower-than-expected consumer recovery, and uncertainties in tariff policies[3]

Group 1 - The report highlights a strong performance in the Chinese tourism sector during the Spring Festival, with domestic travel reaching 501 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [12][13] - The total domestic tourism revenue during the Spring Festival was 677 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.0% year-on-year growth [12][13] - The average spending per person during the 8-day domestic travel period was 1,351 yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous year [12][13] Group 2 - The report notes that the box office for the Spring Festival reached a record high of 95.1 billion yuan, surpassing the previous record of 80.16 billion yuan [15] - The film "Nezha: The Devil Child Comes to the World" achieved a box office of 48.39 billion yuan, ranking among the top five in Chinese film history [15] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the tourism and entertainment sectors, driven by high consumer spending and travel demand during the holiday [15] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, with a temporary suspension of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods until March 4, 2025 [5][6] - It mentions that the U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2024 was 2.3%, below the expected 2.6%, but consumer spending remained resilient [9] - The report highlights the performance of various asset classes during the holiday period, including a slight increase in gold prices and fluctuations in equity markets due to external factors [6][7] Group 4 - The report outlines the recent regulatory changes in supply chain finance aimed at better supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in China [18] - It emphasizes the importance of developing diverse supply chain financial models to enhance the competitiveness and resilience of the supply chain [18] - The report also notes the Bank of England's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations [19]

Group 1 - The report highlights the macroeconomic overview during the Spring Festival, noting significant events such as tariff changes by the US and their impact on market volatility [5][6][9] - The performance of major asset prices during the holiday period is summarized, with US equity markets showing mixed results, while gold prices reached historical highs due to increased risk aversion [6][9] - The report indicates that the Chinese economy showed resilience in consumer spending during the Spring Festival, with a notable increase in domestic travel and tourism expenditures [10][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the recovery of industrial profits in December 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, indicating a positive trend in profit growth driven by policy effects and market demand [12][13] - It notes that the manufacturing PMI for January was 49.1, reflecting a slight contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2, indicating stability in the service sector [9][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of price factors in sustaining profit growth into 2025, with a focus on fiscal policy and its implementation pace [13][14] Group 3 - The cultural and tourism market during the Spring Festival saw 5.01 billion domestic trips, a 5.9% increase year-on-year, with total spending reaching 677 billion yuan, up 7.0% [17] - The report outlines the government's focus on high-quality development and the need for effective policy measures to address economic challenges and enhance domestic circulation [18][19] - The adjustment of the national logistics hub layout is discussed, with the aim of improving logistics efficiency and supporting regional economic development [19][21] Group 4 - The A-share market analysis indicates a mixed performance among major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.65% and the Shenzhen Component Index showing slight gains [23][24] - The IT services sector experienced significant growth, with a 6.17% increase, driven by strong capital inflows and positive market sentiment [25][26] - The report highlights the overall market data, including changes in financing balances and bond yields, reflecting the current economic environment [30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Standard Allocation" [5] Core Insights - Domestic tourism during the Spring Festival saw 501 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with tourism revenue reaching 677 billion yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year [5] - The popularity of "intangible cultural heritage tourism" and winter sports tourism is driving consumer interest, with significant increases in bookings for destinations like Kaifeng and Harbin [5] - Cross-border travel orders increased by 30% during the Spring Festival, with inbound tourism ticket orders rising by 180% year-on-year [5] - The Spring Festival box office reached a record 9.51 billion yuan, with notable films contributing to this success [5] - The report suggests a stable growth in tourism data and high consumer willingness to travel, benefiting OTA platforms and related sectors [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights stable growth in tourism and revenue during the Spring Festival, with significant increases in both domestic and cross-border travel [5] Tourism Trends - Non-heritage tourism and winter sports tourism are leading the consumption trends, with specific destinations experiencing substantial growth in bookings [5] Box Office Performance - The Spring Festival box office set a new record, driven by popular films, indicating a strong recovery in the entertainment sector [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a positive outlook for the tourism sector, particularly for OTA platforms and related industries, due to high consumer travel intent and stable growth data [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights the macroeconomic overview during the Spring Festival, noting significant events such as tariff increases by the Trump administration on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which may lead to increased market volatility [5][6][9] - The performance of major asset prices during the holiday period is summarized, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.26% and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones falling by 0.29% and 0.65% respectively [5][6][26] - The report indicates that the U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2024 was lower than expected at 2.3%, with consumer spending showing resilience despite a decline in private investment [9][12] Group 2 - Industrial enterprise profits in China showed a significant recovery in December 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, driven by improved revenue and profit margins [12][13] - The report notes that the manufacturing PMI for January was 49.1%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2%, suggesting slight expansion [9][12] - The report emphasizes the positive impact of policies such as "old-for-new" and "grabbing exports" on the midstream equipment sector, contributing to profit growth [12][14] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on various sectors, indicating that the tariffs may have a limited effect on Chinese exports due to the declining proportion of exports to the U.S. [6][9] - It mentions that the Chinese government has imposed additional tariffs on certain U.S. imports, including a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10% tariff on crude oil and agricultural machinery [17][18] - The report also highlights the establishment of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund as part of Trump's economic strategy, which may influence market dynamics [18]

Group 1: Market Overview - During the Spring Festival, overseas markets focused on three main trading themes: Trump's tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico; the impact of Deepseek on US tech stocks; and diverging overseas monetary policies[1] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices fell by 0.29% and 0.65% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.26%[4] - The US dollar index increased by 1.02%, reaching a peak of 109.88, while the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.83%[10] Group 2: Economic Data and Events - The US GDP for Q4 2024 was reported at 2.3%, below the expected 2.6%, with personal consumption contributing 2.82 percentage points[32] - In December 2024, industrial profits for large enterprises in China turned positive with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%[33] - The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.1%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2%[39] Group 3: Consumer Behavior During Spring Festival - Cross-regional mobility during the Spring Festival reached 1.44 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%[13] - The box office revenue for the Spring Festival reached nearly 8.6 billion yuan, surpassing the previous year's record of 8.016 billion yuan[20] - New home sales in 30 major cities during the Spring Festival increased by 92.8% year-on-year, with second and third-tier cities showing significant growth[23]