| 分析师 | 林瑾璐 电话：021-25102905 邮箱：linjl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519070002 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 田馨宇 电话：010-66554013 邮箱：tianxy@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521070003 | 投资摘要： 事件：5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，会上央行、金融监管总局、 证监会提出具体政策措施。 货币宽松落地，债市定价权重趋向基本面 2025 年 5 月 8 日 固定收益 点评报告 | ——国新办新闻发布会点评 | | --- | 固 定 收 益 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 P2 东兴证券固定收益报告 关于降息，主要包括三个方面的内容。①下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，从 1.5%下调到 1.4%，经过市场化的利率传导，预计 将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）随之下行 0.1 个百分点。中国人民银行还将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相 ...

精智达（688627.SH）：半导体业务 爆发，新型显示业务再突破 | 2025 | 年 5 | 月 | 8 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 推荐/维持 | | | | | | 精智达 | 公司报告 | | | | ——2024 年报业绩点评 事件： 半导体存储器件测试设备领域，公司持续加强产品市场优势并丰富产品类。报 告期内，公司 DRAM 老化测试修复设备、MEMS 探针卡等产品出货量持续提 升，保持国产设备供应商中的领先地位。公司具备晶圆裸片测试功能、旨在提 升客户研发设计和品质验证效率的存储器通用测试验证机获得批量订单并且 实现验收，自主研发测试机平台已经获得客户认可。与此同时公司持续推动满 足针对先进封装测试要求的升级版 CP 测试机、高速 FT 测试机等核心测试 设备研发及客户验证工作。根据 TechInsights 的数据显示，2024 年全球存储 器测试设备销售额达到 15 亿美元，同比增长 36.4%，预计 2025 年将进一步 攀升至 19 亿美元，年复合增长率达 26.7%。存储测试机目前主要被爱德万、 泰瑞达等国外厂商占据主要市场份额，国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term challenges from tax policy changes [3][4]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.688 billion yuan, up 8.01% [1]. - The company's air freight business saw a revenue decline of 0.90% to 9.035 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.58%, down 5.04 percentage points [1]. - The comprehensive logistics solutions segment experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching 12.476 billion yuan, a 36.72% increase, and a gross margin of 15.89%, up 2.37 percentage points [2]. - The ground services segment reported a slight decrease in gross margin to 36.16%, despite a 6.91% increase in revenue to 2.531 billion yuan [2]. - The company is expected to face short-term disruptions due to new tax policies affecting cross-border e-commerce, leading to a cautious adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.486 billion yuan, a 5.02% year-on-year increase, but a decline in net profit by 7.40% to 545 million yuan due to increased tax expenses [1][2]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.3 billion, 2.68 billion, and 2.94 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.45, 1.69, and 1.85 yuan [3][8]. - The company's PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 8.7, 7.5, and 6.8 times, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [3][8]. Business Segments Overview - The air freight business's daily utilization rate for all-cargo aircraft reached 13.01 hours, with a load factor of 82.17%, reflecting operational efficiency [1]. - The decline in profitability in the passenger aircraft cargo segment is attributed to a significant drop in gross profit, which fell to -80 million yuan from 417 million yuan in the previous year [1][2]. - The company is actively responding to market changes by optimizing capacity and focusing on high-demand areas, particularly in cross-border e-commerce logistics [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term challenges from tax policy changes [3][4]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.688 billion yuan, up 8.01% [1]. - The company's air freight business saw a revenue decline of 0.90% to 9.035 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.58%, down 5.04 percentage points [1]. - The comprehensive logistics solutions segment experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching 12.476 billion yuan, a 36.72% increase, and a gross margin of 15.89%, up 2.37 percentage points [2]. - The ground services segment reported a slight decrease in gross margin to 36.16%, despite a 6.91% increase in revenue to 2.531 billion yuan [2]. - The company is expected to face short-term disruptions due to new tax policies affecting cross-border e-commerce, leading to a cautious adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.486 billion yuan, a 5.02% increase year-on-year, but a decline in net profit by 7.40% to 545 million yuan due to increased tax expenses [1][2]. - The air freight business's gross margin improved to 34.03%, benefiting from higher freight rates, while the passenger aircraft cargo business saw a significant profit drop [1][2]. - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 2.3 billion, 2.682 billion, and 2.938 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.45, 1.69, and 1.85 yuan [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Kehua Holdings (603161.SH) [6][4] Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure due to declining revenue and increased asset impairment provisions, with Q1 2025 revenue at 525.60 million yuan, down 15.17% year-on-year, and net profit at 25.61 million yuan, down 40.82% year-on-year [1][2] - Despite short-term risks in the turbocharger industry, the company has significant room for market share growth, and its operational efficiency has improved since the end of large capital expenditures in 2023 [4][6] - The company has a competitive edge in core processes and R&D for its main products, which include turbine shells and intermediate shells [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 16.68%, a decrease of 2.09% year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.7%, down 2.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The company reported an asset impairment loss of 27.78 million yuan in Q1 2025, accounting for 5.3% of revenue, compared to 1.60 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - Operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 118.69 million yuan, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, indicating better cash flow performance compared to profit [3] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 123.51 million yuan, 150 million yuan, and 179.94 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.64, 0.77, and 0.93 yuan [5][4] - Revenue is expected to grow from 2,534.05 million yuan in 2025 to 2,932.70 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 6.82% in 2025 and 7.56% in 2027 [5][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Ningbo Gaofa [2][5] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 results that met expectations, with revenue of 386.51 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 46.23 million yuan, up 13.61% year-on-year [3] - Revenue growth is driven by increased sales from major clients such as Geely, BYD, Chery, and Seres, as well as the expansion into overseas and joint venture markets [3][4] - The company has successfully developed new products, including automotive brake pedals, which have begun small-scale supply to clients [3] Revenue and Profitability - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.25%, a significant increase from 16.98% in Q4 2024, although slightly lower than 21.5% in Q1 2024 [4] - The expense ratio (sales + management + R&D) decreased to 8.5%, down 0.79 percentage points from Q4 2024 and 1.73 percentage points from Q1 2024 [4] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11.9%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year [4] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 221.45 million yuan, 256.24 million yuan, and 298.50 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.99, 1.15, and 1.34 yuan [5][6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.68 billion yuan, 1.93 billion yuan, and 2.24 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.12%, 14.86%, and 15.76% respectively [6] Company Overview - Ningbo Gaofa specializes in the research, production, and sales of automotive transmission control systems and acceleration control systems [7]

科前生物（688526.SH）：行业竞争 拖累 24 年表现，25Q1 复苏明显 事件：公司公布 2024 年报和 2025 年一季报，24 全年实现营收 9.42 亿元， yoy-11.48%，实现归母净利润 3.82 亿元，yoy-3.43%；25Q1 实现营收 2.45 亿元，yoy19.65%，实现归母净利润 1.08 亿元，yoy24.08%。 价格拖累 24 年经营表现，25Q1 复苏明显。公司 24 年全年主营兽用生物制品 实现营业收入 8.96 亿元，同比下滑 12.75%；其中销量相比 23 年增长 1.19%， 行业激烈竞争下，价格拖累了公司整体经营表现，主营业务毛利率下滑 7.72 个百分点至 65.07%。公司费用管控持续优化，24 年公司四项费用率合计 21.25%，相比 23 年下降 1.68 个百分点，主要由销售费用的缩减带来（同比 下降 2.44 个百分点）。 随下游养殖盈利回暖，动保需求逐步复苏，公司 25Q1 收入业绩明显回暖，25Q1 销售收入同比增长 19.65%，销售毛利率 65.88%，相比 24 年回升 2.12 个百 分点。四项费用率在销售费用的持续优化下，同比 ...

人民银行降准降息，加大对科创企业金融 支持 2025 年 5 月 7 日 宏观经济 事件点评 ——5 月 7 日人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会发布会点评 | | | 事件： 人民银行、金融监管总局，证监会发布会，人民银行降准 50bp，降政策利率 10bp，降结构性贷款和住房贷款利率 25bp。 主要观点： 一行一局一会领导肯定了一季度经济表现和资本市场的应对表现，同时没有回避当前关税对全球和国内经济和金融体系的影 响。央行表示将坚定维护中国的汇市、债市、股市等金融市场平稳运行；证监会表示将努力在市场运行上体现"稳"，同时 在激发市场活力、强化市场功能上体现"进"。政策总体向企业端倾斜。 货币政策保持货币宽松，降低资金成本，释放长期流动性资金，以及扩大定向贷款额度。降准降息符合市场预期。此外, 定 向对汽车金融、金融租赁公司存准率阶段性降至 0。定向贷款方向符合政治局会议的政策方向，包括"两新"、服务和养老消 费、小微企业以及科技企业。 对科技企业的金融支持愈加具体。一体现在扩大两新贷款额度 3000 亿。二体现在一行一局一会对科技企业融资方面的全方 位支持。从证监会大力发展科技创新债券，优化发行注册流程，到 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 11.48% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 942 million yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 382 million yuan, down 3.43% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, the company showed a significant recovery with a revenue increase of 19.65% year-on-year, amounting to 245 million yuan, and a net profit of 108 million yuan, up 24.08% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in 2024 was primarily due to price pressures from intense industry competition, leading to a 12.75% drop in revenue from the main business of veterinary biological products, despite a 1.19% increase in sales volume compared to 2023. The gross margin for the main business fell by 7.72 percentage points to 65.07% [1][2]. - The company has been optimizing its cost management, with total expense ratios decreasing by 1.68 percentage points to 21.25% in 2024, mainly driven by a reduction in sales expenses [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 450 million yuan, 549 million yuan, and 639 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.97 yuan, 1.18 yuan, and 1.37 yuan. The PE ratios are projected to be 17, 14, and 12 times for the same years [3][4]. - The revenue for 2025 is expected to rebound to 1.11 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 17.75%, followed by further growth in subsequent years [4]. - The company has received five new veterinary drug registration certificates in 2024, including a significant vaccine for pigs, and is actively developing multiple vaccine products for pets and ruminants [2]. Industry Context - The recovery in the company's performance is linked to the improving profitability of downstream pig farming, which is expected to drive demand for animal health products [2]. - Continuous investment in research and development is supporting the company's innovation and technological upgrades, enhancing the safety, effectiveness, and efficiency of its vaccine production [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Ningbo Gaofa [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 386.51 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.3% [3] - The growth in revenue is driven by increased sales from major clients such as Geely, BYD, Chery, and Seres, as well as the expansion into overseas and joint venture markets [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.25%, showing a significant recovery from 16.98% in Q4 2024, although slightly lower than 21.5% in Q1 2024 [4] - The expense ratio (sales + management + R&D) decreased to 8.5% in Q1 2025, down 0.79 percentage points from Q4 2024 and 1.73 percentage points from Q1 2024 [4] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11.9%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] - The company has a strong cash position, with cash and cash equivalents totaling 849 million yuan, and short-term borrowings reduced to 24.64 million yuan [4] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 221.45 million yuan, 256.24 million yuan, and 298.50 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.99, 1.15, and 1.34 yuan [5][6] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 1.68 billion yuan, 1.93 billion yuan, and 2.24 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.12%, 14.86%, and 15.76% respectively [6] Company Overview - Ningbo Gaofa specializes in the research, production, and sales of automotive transmission control systems and acceleration control systems [7]