国泰海通晨报 2025 年 10 月 09 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【海外策略研究】：①年初以来港股表现出色，虽三季度港股阶段性跑输 A 股，但 9 月以来在 科技股驱动下已重拾升势。②当前港股估值仅处历史中位，与 A 股对比性价比仍然突出，其中科 技板块低估优势更加明显。③产业趋势叠加资金面持续改善，港股四季度有望续创新高，结构上 港股科技仍是行情主线。 2、【固定收益研究】：国债发行计划变化、制造业 PMI 成色和海外资产涨跌。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 吴信坤(分析师) 021-23154147 wuxinkun@gtht.com S0880525040061 杨锦(分析师) 021-23185661 yangjin2@gtht.com S0880525040083 陆嘉瑞(研究助理) 021-23185659 lujiarui@gtht.com S0 ...

国债发行计划变化、制造业 PMI 成色和海外资产涨跌。 投资要点： 通 用 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 总量研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.08 | | 0755-23976753 tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(研究助理) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123090079 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 总 量 研 究 国庆前后，需着重关注的三件事 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： 银行二永债周度数据库更新（2025.9.19-9.30） 2025.10.07 地方债利差小幅走阔，新增地方债发行进度 83.6% 2025.10.05 收益率整体上行，期限利差走阔 2025.10.05 T、TL 机构行为因子分化，T 合约多头力量增强 20250929 2025.09.29 跨季前后的阶段性平台期 2025.09.28 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部 ...

- The Black-Litterman (BL) model is an improved version of the mean-variance optimization (MVO) model developed by Fisher Black and Robert Litterman in 1990. It combines Bayesian theory with quantitative asset allocation models, allowing investors to incorporate subjective views into asset return forecasts and optimize portfolio weights. This model addresses MVO's sensitivity to expected returns and provides a more robust framework for efficient asset allocation[12][13][14] - The BL model was implemented for both global and domestic assets. For global assets, it utilized indices such as the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and COMEX Gold. For domestic assets, it included indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. Two variations of the BL model were constructed for each asset category[13][14][18] - The Risk Parity model, introduced by Bridgewater in 2005, aims to equalize risk contributions across asset classes in a portfolio. It calculates initial asset weights based on expected volatility and correlation, then optimizes deviations between actual and expected risk contributions to determine final portfolio weights[17][18][20] - The Risk Parity model was applied to both global and domestic assets. Global assets included indices such as CSI 300, S&P 500, and COMEX Gold, while domestic assets incorporated CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. The model followed a three-step process: selecting assets, calculating risk contributions, and solving optimization problems for portfolio weights[18][20][21] - The Macro Factor-based Asset Allocation model constructs a framework using six macroeconomic risk factors: growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity. It employs Factor Mimicking Portfolio methods to calculate high-frequency macro factors and integrates subjective views on macroeconomic conditions into asset allocation decisions[22][24][25] - The Macro Factor-based model involves four steps: calculating factor exposures for assets, determining benchmark factor exposures using a Risk Parity portfolio, incorporating subjective factor deviations based on macroeconomic forecasts, and solving for asset weights that align with target factor exposures[22][24][25] Model Performance Metrics - Domestic BL Model 1: Weekly return -0.11%, September return -0.14%, 2025 YTD return 3.23%, annualized volatility 2.19%, maximum drawdown 1.31%[14][17] - Domestic BL Model 2: Weekly return -0.11%, September return -0.13%, 2025 YTD return 2.84%, annualized volatility 1.99%, maximum drawdown 1.06%[14][17] - Global BL Model 1: Weekly return 0.04%, September return 0.11%, 2025 YTD return 0.84%, annualized volatility 1.99%, maximum drawdown 1.64%[14][17] - Global BL Model 2: Weekly return 0.00%, September return 0.03%, 2025 YTD return 1.84%, annualized volatility 1.63%, maximum drawdown 1.28%[14][17] - Domestic Risk Parity Model: Weekly return -0.06%, September return 0.05%, 2025 YTD return 2.99%, annualized volatility 1.35%, maximum drawdown 0.76%[20][21] - Global Risk Parity Model: Weekly return -0.07%, September return 0.13%, 2025 YTD return 2.50%, annualized volatility 1.48%, maximum drawdown 1.20%[20][21] - Macro Factor-based Model: Weekly return 0.04%, September return 0.26%, 2025 YTD return 3.29%, annualized volatility 1.32%, maximum drawdown 0.64%[26][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [6]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, and the inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry [3][6]. - The report highlights that the supply-side adjustments are beginning to take effect, with a significant portion of steel companies still operating at a loss, which may lead to a market-clearing process [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 8.7406 million tons, an increase of 237,300 tons week-on-week; construction materials consumption was 3.0445 million tons, up by 99,800 tons; and sheet metal consumption was 5.6961 million tons, up by 137,500 tons [6]. - Total steel inventory decreased to 15.1061 million tons, down by 91,300 tons week-on-week, maintaining a low level [6]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points week-on-week [6]. 2. Profitability and Production - The average gross profit for rebar was 216.2 CNY/ton, down by 18.1 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 172.2 CNY/ton, up by 18.4 CNY/ton [6]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week-on-week [6]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates that the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand will weaken, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is expected to grow steadily [6]. - The recent policy document on the steel industry emphasizes continued production cuts and the exit of inefficient capacity, supporting the expectation of supply-side contraction [6]. 4. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their competitive advantages and market positioning, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and CITIC Special Steel, among others [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 7.74 CNY [2][3]. Core Insights - The company significantly reduced its non-recurring losses in Q2 2025, and despite unexpected reductions in public and business demand during the summer travel season, it is expected to achieve year-on-year profit growth [3][11]. - The company's network optimization and active cost reduction strategies are anticipated to lead to an upward shift in its profit center in the future [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 159.93 billion CNY in 2023 to 207.00 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.6% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn from a loss of 4.21 billion CNY in 2023 to a profit of 9.39 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a significant recovery [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -0.23 CNY in 2023 to 0.52 CNY in 2027 [5]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 107.82 billion CNY, with a current stock price of 5.95 CNY [6][11]. - The stock has traded within a range of 5.43 to 7.27 CNY over the past 52 weeks [6]. Operational Highlights - The company has seen a 5.5% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) year-on-year, driven by a 4% growth in its fleet and increased international flight rotations [11]. - The average domestic aviation fuel price decreased by 13% year-on-year, with a 17% drop in Q2, allowing the company to retain most of the cost savings [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, driven by a gradual recovery in public and business demand, alongside ongoing cost reduction efforts [11]. - The construction of dual hubs in Guangzhou and Beijing is a significant strategic move that is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, being the first among major airlines to turn a profit in Q2 2025. The overall demand fluctuations do not alter the long-term growth logic of the aviation industry, and an optimistic upward trend in profitability is anticipated over the next two years [3][11] - The company has maintained a target price of 13.52 CNY for 2027, based on a projected PE ratio of 16 times [11] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 141.1 billion CNY in 2023 to 204.739 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.3% [5][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to shift from a loss of 1.046 billion CNY in 2023 to a profit of 15.07 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [5][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -0.06 CNY in 2023 to 0.86 CNY in 2027 [5][12] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from -2.8% in 2023 to 22.6% in 2027, showcasing a strong recovery in profitability [5][12] Strategic Developments - The company is set to maintain its controlling stake in Shenzhen Airlines, which is undergoing a capital increase of 16 billion CNY. This move is expected to alleviate debt burdens and enhance profitability [11] - The company’s network and customer quality are continuously improving, positioning it as a leading player in the aviation sector [11] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 135.4 billion CNY, with a current stock price of 7.76 CNY [6][12] - The company’s stock has shown resilience, with a 52-week price range of 6.85 to 8.89 CNY [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The embodied intelligence industry is primarily represented by embodied robots and smart vehicles, which are mutually reinforcing in their development [7] - Recent advancements include the unveiling of Fourier's third-generation humanoid robot GR-3C and the establishment of the largest humanoid robot training center in China [10][11] - Significant investment activities have been observed in the embodied intelligence sector, with multiple companies securing funding to enhance their technological capabilities and market presence [24] Summary by Sections 1. Embodied Robot and Smart Vehicle Dynamics - Fourier's third-generation humanoid robot GR-3C was showcased at the Industrial Expo, featuring 55 degrees of freedom and advanced interaction capabilities [10] - A new humanoid robot training center in Beijing can produce over 6 million data points annually, enhancing the practical application of humanoid robots [11] - Cross-dimensional intelligence released an upgraded video learning framework that allows rapid task adaptation across different robot bodies [12] - DeepMind introduced the Gemini Robotics 1.5 series, enhancing robots' capabilities in visual and language processing [13] - A strategic partnership between Lingyi Robotics and AIRS aims to integrate hardware and algorithms for humanoid robot development [15] - Kepler has initiated mass production of the world's first commercially available hybrid humanoid robot, K2 "Bumblebee," with significant pre-orders [16] 2. Smart Vehicle Dynamics - The sales ranking for new energy vehicles in the third week of September shows Leap Motor leading with 12,900 units sold, followed by Xiaomi and Aion [17][18] - A new autonomous driving test base was established in Jinan by Lingong Heavy Machinery and Huawei, focusing on comprehensive testing of autonomous mining vehicles [19] - ZF signed an investment agreement to expand its smart chassis localization efforts in Zhangjiagang [20] - NineSight signed a strategic agreement with Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority to launch an autonomous driving demonstration zone [21] - New Stone Technology delivered its 10,000th unmanned vehicle, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of unmanned delivery [23] 3. Investment and Financing Events - A total of 9 financing events related to embodied intelligence were recorded from September 22 to 28, 2025, with notable investments in companies like LeXiang Technology and LuoBo Intelligent [24][34] - LeXiang Technology completed a 200 million RMB angel round led by Zhongding Capital, focusing on core component development and product scaling [24] - LuoBo Intelligent raised several million RMB in a round led by Sequoia China, targeting AI emotional companionship hardware [25] - Other companies like HeShan Technology and ShouZhi Innovation also secured funding to advance their respective technologies in humanoid robots and core components [26][27]

Content: --------- <doc id='1'>大额买入与资金流向跟踪（20250922-20250926） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 本报告导读： 参考团队前期发布的专题报告选股因子系列研究（五十六、五十七），本报告旨在通 过交易明细数据构建相关指标，跟踪大额买入和净主动买入。</doc> <doc id='2'>投资要点：</doc> <doc id='3'>| | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 张耿宇(分析师) | | | 021-23183109 | | | zhanggengyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040078 |</doc> <doc id='4'>[Table_Report] 相关报告 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20250928） 2025.09.28 高频选股因子周报（20250922-20250926） 2025.09.28 低频选股因子周报（2025.09.19-2025.09.26） 2025.09.27 国内权益资产震荡，资产配置策略整体回调 2025.09.26 绝对收益产品及策略周报（250915-250919） 2025.09.24 金 融 工 程 金 融 工 程 周 报 金融工程 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.30 [Table_Summary] 个股大额买入跟踪与净主动买入跟踪。近 5 个交易日大额买入排名 前 5 的个股为：华泰股份、美凯龙、联美控股、启迪环境、酒钢宏 兴；近 5 个交易日净主动买入排名前 5 的个股为：鄂尔多斯、中信 特钢、桂冠电力、南钢股份、京泉华。（本周报中，近 5 个交易日特 指 20250922 至 20250926。） 行业大额买入与净主动买入跟踪。近 5 个交易日大额买入排名前 5 的中信一级行业为：银行、石油石化、非银行金融、钢铁、房地产； 近 5 个交易日净主动买入排名前 5 的中信一级行业为：银行、石油 石化、农林牧渔、房地产、电力及公用事业。 ETF 大额买入跟踪与 ETF 净主动买入跟踪。近 5 个交易日大额买 入排名前 5 的 ETF 为：嘉实中证 500ETF、南方标普中国 A 股大盘 红利低波 50ETF、易方达中证红利 ETF、嘉实中证稀土产业 ETF、 易方达沪深 300ETF；近 5 个交易日净主动买入排名前 5 的 ETF 为： 富国创业板 ETF、嘉实中证新能源 ETF、华夏中证内地低碳经济主 题 ETF、广发创业板 ETF、鹏华中证国防 ETF。 风险提示。因子失效风险，模型误设风险，市场系统性风险。</doc> <doc id='6'>| 1. | 跟踪指标计算说明 3 | | --- | --- | | 2. | 个股大额买入与资金流向跟踪 3 | | 3. | 宽基指数大额买入与资金流向跟踪 3 | | 4. | 行业大额买入与资金流向跟踪 4 | | 5. | ETF 大额买入与资金流向跟踪 5 | | 6. | 风险提示 5 |</doc> <doc id='7'>1. 跟踪指标计算说明 本文使用大买单成交金额占比和净主动买入金额占比，跟踪个股、宽 基指数、行业和 ETF 的大额买入与资金流向。 大买单成交金额占比刻画了大资金的买入行为。根据逐笔成交数据中 的叫买和叫卖序号，可将逐笔成交数据还原为买卖单数据，并按照每单的 成交量筛选得到大单，计算其中大买单的成交金额占当日总成交金额的比 例。 净主动买入金额占比刻画了投资者的主动买入行为。根据逐笔成交数 据中的买卖标志，可界定每笔成交属于主动买入还是主动卖出。将两者的 成交金额相减，可得净主动买入金额，并计算占当日总成交金额的比例。</doc> <doc id='8'>2. 个股大额买入与资金流向跟踪 下表为全市场大买单成交金额占比过去 5 日均值排名前 10 的股票。</doc> <doc id='9'>| | 表 1 大买单成交金额占比前 10 股票列表（20250922-20250926） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排序 | WIND 代码 | 股票名称 | 指标值 | 时序分位数 | | 1 | 600308.SH | 华泰股份 | 89.1% | 100.0% | | 2 | 601828.SH | 美凯龙 | 88.9% | 99.2% | | 3 | 600167.SH | 联美控股 | 88.7% | 98.8% | | 4 | 000826.SZ | 启迪环境 | 88.6% | 99.6% | | 5 | 600307.SH | 酒钢宏兴 | 87.9% | 95.9% | | 6 | 601996.SH | 丰林集团 | 87.7% | 98.0% | | 7 | 601366.SH | 利群股份 | 87.7% | 99.2% | | 8 | 002453.SZ | 华软科技 | 87.7% | 99.6% | | 9 | 600935.SH | 华塑股份 | 87.5% | 97.6% | | 10 | 600606.SH | 绿地控股 | 87.3% | 99.2% | 资料来源: Wind，国泰海通证券研究 下表为部分全市场净主动买入金额占比过去 5 日均值排名前 10 的股票。</doc> <doc id='10'>| | 表 2 净主动买入金额占比前 10 股票列表（20250922-20250926） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排序 | WIND 代码 | 股票名称 | 指标值 | 时序分位数 | | 1 | 600295.SH | 鄂尔多斯 | 17.9% | 98.4% | | 2 | 000708.SZ | 中信特钢 | 17.4% | 100.0% | | 3 | 600236.SH | 桂冠电力 | 15.2% | 98.4% | | 4 | 600282.SH | 南钢股份 | 12.7% | 95.1% | | 5 | 002885.SZ | 京泉华 | 11.6% | 100.0% | | 6 | 600323.SH | 瀚蓝环境 | 11.5% | 95.1% | | 7 | 600176.SH | 中国巨石 | 11.5% | 99.2% | | 9 | 603037.SH | 凯众股份 | 11.0% | 100.0% | | 10 | 603091.SH | 众鑫股份 | 10.9% | 99.2% | 资料来源: Wind，国泰海通证券研究</doc> <doc id='11'>3. 宽基指数大额买入与资金流向跟踪 本文使用整体法计算主要宽基指数的大买单成交金额占比和净主动买 入金额占比，列于下表。</doc> <doc id='12'>表 3 宽基指数大额买入与资金流向（20250922-20250926） | | | 大买单成交金额占比 | | 净主动买入金额占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 5 日均值 | 5 日均值分位数 | 5 日均值 | 5 日均值分位数 | | 上证指数 | 72.3% | 2.9% | -3.6% | 21.6% | | 上证 50 | 70.2% | 7.3% | 1.1% | 18.4%

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][6][13] Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 performance showed a decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, but the PVP application range is extensive, and the medical sector is showing signs of recovery [2][13] - The report projects a decrease in EPS for 2025 and 2026 to 0.70 and 0.82 CNY respectively, with a new EPS estimate for 2027 at 1.02 CNY [13] - The target price is set at 23.10 CNY based on a 33x PE valuation for 2025 [13] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,583 million CNY, with a slight increase to 1,606 million CNY in 2024, followed by a decrease to 1,520 million CNY in 2025 [4][14] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 493 million CNY in 2023 to 350 million CNY in 2024, and further to 342 million CNY in 2025 [4][14] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for Q2 2025 were reported at 41.86% and 18.2% respectively, showing a decline from Q1 2025 [13] Market Data - The company's current price is 17.89 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 11.95 to 19.87 CNY [6][7] - The total market capitalization is approximately 8,695 million CNY [7] Industry Insights - PVP is widely used across various sectors including pharmaceuticals, food industry, and electronics, with applications enhancing battery performance and electronic skin sensitivity [13] - The report indicates a stabilization in PVP prices after a significant drop in H1 2025, which had previously impacted revenue and margins [13]

Group 1 - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the automotive industry, emphasizing the potential of humanoid robots to create demand and suggesting a focus on high-cost performance technology routes similar to lithium iron phosphate cathodes in new energy vehicles [2][8] - Recommended companies include Dechang Motor Holdings, which leads in automotive motors, and Haoneng Co., which is advancing into reducers [8] - The domestic heavy truck market has shown significant growth due to the old-for-new replacement policy initiated in May, with recommendations for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, and Weichai Power [8] Group 2 - The report highlights the competitive pressure in the domestic passenger car market as the old-for-new replacement effects diminish, recommending differentiated competitors such as Great Wall Motors, SAIC Motor, and Jianghuai Automobile [8] - The report notes that the retail sales of passenger cars in China from September 1-21 reached 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 15.955 million units, up 9% [3][9] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 58.5%, with retail sales of 697,000 units during the same period, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [3][9] Group 3 - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid iteration, with companies like Xinuo Future showing strong capabilities in core component manufacturing, including a complete production line for motors and control systems [4][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation and cost advantages in the humanoid robot sector, particularly for companies like Dechang Motor Holdings [4][10]