Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the borrowing volume of 30Y government bonds over the past 30 trading days, with a year-on-year growth of 133% to 278% for active and secondary active bonds, indicating a strong demand for long-term bonds as a hedging and position adjustment tool in a volatile market [7][8][10] - The borrowing volume of 10Y government bonds showed a pattern of "year-end increase, early-year decline," with a year-on-year increase of 135.34% in December, followed by a decline of 22.54% in January, suggesting a cooling demand for mid-term bonds [10][12] Group 2 - In the funding market, there is a trend of expanding borrowing and contracting lending, with an overall decrease in leverage ratios across institutions, while overnight trading ratios have increased [14][15] - The primary market for government and policy financial bonds has shown mixed performance, with variations in bidding multiples and spreads between primary and secondary markets [19][20] Group 3 - The secondary market has seen active trading, particularly in 30Y government bonds, with a notable increase in turnover rates, while trading behaviors among different types of institutions have diverged [25][26] - Large banks have shifted to net buying in the interbank certificate of deposit market, while securities companies have significantly increased net selling [27][29]

新股精要—国内领先的精准 PCI 医疗器 械生产商北芯生命 ——IPO 专题 本报告导读： 北芯生命（688712.SH）是国内精准 PCI 领域领先的医疗器械生产商，核心产品打 破国际厂商垄断，有望受益于精准 PCI 渗透率提升和国产化替代进程。2024 年公司 实现营收/归母净利润 3.12/-0.44 亿元。截至 2026 年 1 月 19 日，可比公司对应 2024/2025/2026 年平均 PS 为 19.31/15.94/12.46 倍。 投资要点： 新股研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.20 | [Table_Authors] | 王政之(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38674944 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | | | 施怡昀(分析师) | | | 021-38032690 | | | shiyiyun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060002 | | | 王思琪(分析师) | | | 021-38038671 | | | wangsiq ...

——2026 年"春运"系列报告之（一） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | | | | 本报告导读： 过去三年中国民航因私需求保持旺盛，预计 2026 年春运需求将继续旺盛，且近日预 售已开始启动。预计春运航空整体加班将较为有限，客流高峰将助力航司收益管理。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 航空《预计元旦假期出游旺盛，12 月量价将好于 | | --- | | 预期》2025.12.30 | | 航空《2025 年或行业扭亏，2026 年迎盈利上行》 | | 2025.12.30 | | 航空《预计 10 月行业性盈利，国际航线票价大 | | 涨》2025.11.21 | | 航空《换季后量价保持双升，国际线票价同比大 | | 涨》 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the commercial aerospace industry Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant advancements, with successful launches and developments in various projects, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [3][4][5][9][14][19] Industry Developments - The successful launch of the Lihong-1 suborbital vehicle on January 12, 2026, marked a significant milestone, demonstrating capabilities for microgravity scientific experiments and in-situ exploration [5][6] - The successful launch of the Vesta-1 rocket on January 16, 2026, which deployed four satellites into low Earth orbit, highlights the growing capabilities of China's commercial space sector [9][10] - The completion of the static fire test for the Long March 12B rocket on January 16, 2026, confirms the reliability and feasibility of this new generation reusable rocket [14] - The Beijing Rocket Street project, the first common testing and research production base for commercial aerospace in China, has been completed and is set to enhance the industry ecosystem [16][17] - Zhongke Aerospace has completed its IPO guidance work, indicating a positive trend for capital market participation in the commercial aerospace sector [19] Financing Progress - Sade Satellite completed a B-round financing on January 14, 2026, which will accelerate its development in the commercial satellite manufacturing sector [20][21] Capital Market Performance - The Wind Commercial Aerospace Index experienced a weekly decline of 4.39% during the week of January 12-16, 2026, with a trading volume decrease of 2.64% [25][28] - Among the listed companies in the commercial aerospace sector, 25.40% saw their stock prices increase during the same week, indicating some resilience in the market despite the overall decline [25][28] Industry Conference Preview - Upcoming conferences include the Third Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Conference from January 23-25, 2026, and the Second Commercial Aerospace Industry Development Conference in March 2026 [32][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 116.10 CNY [5][18]. Core Insights - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China business is expected to significantly enhance the company's premium capability and international influence in the global luxury goods sector, positioning it as a competitive player in tourism retail [2][3]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.947 billion CNY, 5.328 billion CNY, and 6.126 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.91 CNY, 2.58 CNY, and 2.96 CNY [3][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 67.54 billion CNY, with a decrease to 56.47 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a gradual recovery to 68.96 billion CNY in 2026 and 87.76 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 28.7% and 27.3% respectively [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to 4.267 billion CNY in 2024, before increasing to 5.328 billion CNY in 2026 and 6.126 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a recovery trend [4][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 7.0% in 2025 to 9.8% in 2027 [4][12]. Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire DFS's Greater China tourism retail business for up to 395 million USD, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and key assets in Hong Kong [3][12]. - The acquisition is fully funded by the company's own capital, ensuring that existing operations remain unaffected [3][12]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH, aiming for deep collaboration in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [3][12].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that the company Lin Qingxuan has been deeply engaged in the oil-based skincare sector for many years, establishing itself as a pioneer in this field with significant growth potential driven by product expansion and channel development [1][2] - The main brand Lin Qingxuan, founded in 2003, initially focused on natural skincare products and later launched the Camellia Oil Essence in 2014, which has become a leading product in the oil-based skincare category [2][3] - The company has experienced remarkable growth, with revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 reaching 1.05 billion and 180 million RMB, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 98% and 110% [2] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - The oil-based skincare market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 5.3 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42% from 2019 to 2024 [2][3] - Lin Qingxuan holds a leading market share of 12.4% in the facial oil category, significantly ahead of other brands, thanks to its long-term market education and the popularity of its Camellia Oil Essence [2][3] Group 3: Sales Channels and Performance - The company's star product, the Camellia Oil Essence, has seen rapid sales growth, with revenue from this category increasing by 176% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, accounting for 46% of total revenue [3] - Online sales have surged, with a 137% year-on-year increase in online revenue, which now represents 65% of total sales, driven by the popularity of platforms like Douyin [3] - The company has expanded its offline presence, with over 554 stores as of the first half of 2025, indicating significant potential for further growth in physical retail [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Taiping [7] Core Views - China Taiping is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected to grow by 215%-225% year-on-year, primarily driven by improved investment income and favorable tax policies [2][11] - The target price has been raised to HKD 28.60 per share, corresponding to a 2025 P/EV of 0.55 times [11] Financial Summary - Insurance service revenue is projected to increase from HKD 107,489 million in 2023 to HKD 117,071 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [5] - Net profit is expected to rise from HKD 6,190 million in 2023 to HKD 26,982 million in 2025, representing a substantial growth of 220.0% [5] - The PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.63 in 2023 to 3.04 in 2025, indicating a significant improvement in valuation metrics [5] Investment Drivers - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a recovery in the equity market are identified as key catalysts for the company's performance [3] - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise by 18.4% in 2025, which, combined with the company's proactive stock allocation, will enhance investment service performance [11] - The anticipated tax policy changes are expected to positively impact the company's net profit, particularly as the tax rate is projected to decrease from 42.2% in 2024 to a more competitive level [11][13] Business Outlook - The report forecasts a robust growth in the new business value (NBV) of life insurance, expected to increase by 20% in 2025, supported by strong customer demand for insurance savings products [11] - The shift towards dividend insurance products is expected to improve the cost of liabilities, further solidifying the profitability of policies [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the rental yield in major cities has shifted from a negative outlook to a neutral stance due to the CPI turning positive and the continuous decline in risk-free rates. This indicates potential stabilization in asset prices in key cities [2]. - The rental yield in first-tier cities has increased from 1.6% in 2020 to 1.9% in 2025, although it remains below the mortgage loan rates and slightly above the risk-free rates. The "rental yield + CPI" metric is expected to improve as the CPI in some first-tier cities turns positive [4]. - Second-tier cities are showing signs of price stabilization, with the "rental yield + CPI" metric improving from 2.3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 and maintaining that level in 2025. Cities like Hefei and Xi'an are expected to see further improvements in their rental yields [4]. Summary by Sections Rental Yield Analysis - The historical rental yield was 1.5%, but when adjusted for CPI, it is not considered low. The report emphasizes the need to differentiate between actual and nominal yields [4]. - The nominal rental yield is adjusted to account for potential inflation, making it a more comparable metric. The report suggests that the high inflation period has made the first-tier cities' rental yield of 1.5% equivalent to an international nominal yield of 3.5% [4]. Market Trends - The report notes that the rental yield plus CPI in first-tier cities is around 2.5%, which is now higher than the risk-free rate. This indicates a potential shift in market dynamics [5]. - The report also points out that the proportion of declining listing prices has increased, indicating a weakening in the second-hand housing market, with about 19% of listings showing price declines [4][18]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that as the CPI continues to rise and the risk-free rate declines, asset prices in key cities may transition from a negative outlook to a neutral one. This is particularly relevant for second-tier cities, which are expected to have a stronger rental yield plus CPI metric [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Taiping [7] Core Views - China Taiping is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected to grow by 215%-225% year-on-year, primarily driven by improved investment income and favorable tax policies [2][11] - The report anticipates a stable recovery in investment returns and a positive impact from tax policy changes, which will enhance the company's profitability [11] Financial Summary - **Insurance Service Revenue**: Expected to increase from 107,489 million HKD in 2023 to 117,071 million HKD in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [5] - **Net Profit**: Projected to rise from 6,190 million HKD in 2023 to 26,982 million HKD in 2025, representing a staggering growth of 220.0% [5] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: Expected to decrease from 10.63 in 2023 to 3.04 in 2025, indicating a significant improvement in valuation [5] - **Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio**: Anticipated to remain stable around 0.76 for 2025 [5] Key Catalysts - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a recovery in the equity market are identified as key catalysts for the company's performance [3]

- The report focuses on the performance of Smart beta portfolios, specifically Value, Growth, and Small-cap styles, constructed based on high beta elasticity and long-term stable excess returns objectives[6][7][9] - Value Smart beta portfolios include Value 50 and Value Balanced 50 portfolios, with weekly returns of -1.15% and 0.38%, respectively, and annual returns of -1.47% and 3.52%[4][7][9] - Growth Smart beta portfolios include Growth 50 and Growth Balanced 50 portfolios, with weekly returns of 2.02% and 2.28%, respectively, and annual returns of 5.52% and 6.00%[4][7][16] - Small-cap Smart beta portfolios include Small-cap 50 and Small-cap Balanced 50 portfolios, with weekly returns of 3.24% and 1.70%, respectively, and annual returns of 7.58% and 8.26%[4][7][22] - The report highlights the relative performance of these portfolios against their respective benchmarks, such as the CSI Value Index, CSI Growth Index, and CSI 2000 Index, showcasing excess returns and maximum relative drawdowns[7][9][16]