投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.13 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao025053@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 黄汝南(分析师) | | | 010-83939779 | | | huangrunan@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523080001 | | | 韩朝辉(分析师) | | | 021-38038433 | | | hanchaohui@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523110001 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 宏 观 研 究 通胀降温或为暂时，仍需警惕"滞胀交易" [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) ——2025 年 2 月美国 CPI 通胀数据点评 本报告导读： 美国 2 月通胀数据超预期降温，但我们认为关税等效应尚未完全体现，预计二季度 通胀仍有上行风险。当前服务业与就业负反馈、特朗普"放任"与鲍威尔"鹰派"、 股市财富效应冲击三重因素导致"衰退交易"持续，警惕二季度转向 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the environmental sector, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The national carbon market is accelerating its development with the first batch of CCER (Certified Emission Reduction) registrations initiated, indicating a growing demand for carbon credits [8][11]. - The report highlights a significant drop in weekly trading volumes for carbon emissions allowances, with CEA (Carbon Emission Allowance) transactions at 210,300 tons, down 66% from the previous week, and an average price of 87.66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% [6][17]. - The CCER methodology has expanded its coverage, with new methodologies introduced for coal mine low-concentration gas utilization and energy-saving in highway tunnel lighting systems [10][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Investment Perspective - The existing CCER has expired, and the methodology has broadened, with the first batch of methodologies now open for CCER registration. Investment opportunities are recommended in the recycling resources and carbon monitoring sectors [8][9]. - CCER can be used to offset carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market, with a cap of 5% on offsets [9][10]. Environmental Sector Performance - The environmental sector saw a weekly increase of 2.29%, while other sectors like gas and water utilities experienced slight declines [14]. - Top-performing stocks included SanDe Technology (+36.67%) and NingShui Group (+31.87%), while the worst performers were WeiPaiGe (-14.56%) and AnChe Detection (-6.04%) [6][17]. Carbon Neutrality Tracking - The report notes that by 2027, a voluntary disclosure policy for corporate greenhouse gas emissions will be established, with a complete framework expected by 2030 [21]. - The national carbon market is set to expand beyond the power sector to include industries such as cement and steel, with a projected increase in annual greenhouse gas emissions coverage from 4.5 billion tons to 7.5 billion tons [9][10]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential benefits from the evolving carbon market, including: - Snowy Dragon for online monitoring of pollution sources - SanFeng Environment and HanLan Environment for waste incineration - High Energy Environment for recycled metals [12][13].

国泰君安晨报 2025 年 03 月 13 日 国泰君安证券股份有限公司 研究所 [周津宇 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38674924 邮箱：zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.com 登记编号：S0880516080007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 新股研究-IPO 专题：《科技企业 IPO 支持力度再强化，当周 新股上市恢复》2025-03-11 王政之（分析师）021-38674944、施怡昀（分析师）021-38032690、王思琪（分析师）021-38038671 两会经济主题记者会提及上市制度，科技企业 IPO 支持力度凸显。3 月 6 日，证监会主席 吴清在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上表示，加快健全专门针对科技企业的支持机制。聚 焦科技创新活跃、体现新质生产力方向的领域，用好"绿色通道"、未盈利企业上市等制度，稳妥实 施科创板第五套上市标准，更精准支持优质科技企业发行上市。监管表态释放 IPO 积极信号，凸显了 对于科技创新企业上市的支持力度，未来预计科创企业将成为 A 股上市的主力军。 3 月第 1 周，次新板块随市场上行，新 ...

转基因玉米种销量增长快，盈利能力提升显著 丰乐种业(000713) | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 9.50 | | | 上次预测: | 9.50 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 7.27 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间（元） | 5.12-8.33 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | 4,464 | | 总股本/流通A股（百万股） | 614/614 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万股） | 0/0 | 丰乐种业 2024 年报点评 | [table_Authors] 林逸丹(分析师) | 王艳君(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38038436 | 021-38674633 | | linyidan030085@gtjas.com | wangyanjun022998@gtjas.com | 本报告导读： 转基因玉米种子推动公司种业收入较快增 ...

原料药短期承压，CDMO 发展向好 普洛药业(000739) ——普洛药业 2024 年年报点评 | [table_Authors] 丁丹(分析师) | 吴晗(分析师) | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976735 | 010-83939773 | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 19.55 | | dingdan@gtjas.com | wuhan024878@gtjas.com | | 上次预测: | 19.55 | | 登记编号 S0880514030001 | S0880523080005 | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 15.27 | 本报告导读： 原料药阶段性承压，CDMO 项目数及客户数持续扩容，一体化增长可期 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 11,474 | ...

Group 1: Policy and Meeting Dynamics - The report highlights the issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Voluntary Disclosure of Corporate Greenhouse Gas Information" by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which aims to establish a policy system and technical standards for voluntary disclosure by 2027, with a focus on key industries and pilot regions [7][5][1] - The report emphasizes the importance of voluntary disclosure as a beneficial supplement to mandatory environmental information disclosure, encouraging companies to autonomously reduce emissions and supporting the "dual carbon" strategy [7][5] - The State Council's guidance on providing high-quality financial support for the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development is also noted, aiming to enhance the green finance system and support low-carbon transitions [7][5] Group 2: ESG Bonds and Funds - As of March 9, there are 6,101 ESG (green) bonds, with a total balance of 13.0 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.02% from the previous week [8][9] - The report details the composition of various types of bonds, including green bonds, social bonds, and sustainable development bonds, with specific changes in quantity and balance noted [8] - The Wind ESG investment funds total 648, with a combined scale of 815.46 billion yuan, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.64% [9] Group 3: Carbon Market Dynamics - The report indicates that from March 3 to March 6, the cumulative trading volume in the carbon market was 211,000 tons, a decrease of 66.4% compared to the previous week, with a total transaction amount of 18.434 million yuan, also down by 66.8% [18][21] - The average transaction price on March 6 was 86.5 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.3% from February 28 [18][19] Group 4: Renewable Energy and New Energy Vehicles - In December 2024, the production of new energy vehicles reached 1.647 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 4.64% and a year-on-year increase of 44.35% [11] - The report states that the total production for the year 2024 was 13.168 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.45% [11] - The renewable energy generation in December 2024 was 248.74 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [12][17]

| | 国泰君安证券 | | --- | --- | | | GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告回放（2025-03-11 09:00——2025-03-12 15:00） 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：基础化工《重点化工品价格每日跟踪数据库》2025-03-12 | 2 | |  | 行业更新：家用电器业《平台费率正优化，小家电利润率有望改善》2025-03-12 | 2 | |  | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：石油《石化行业数据跟踪 20250311》2025-03-12 | 3 | |  | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：有色金属《有色金属周度数据库》2025-03-12 | 3 | |  | 行业更新：白酒制造《白酒：重视绝对价值机会》2025-03-12 | 4 | |  | 行业事件快评：军工《需求目标指引明确，装备建设有望加速》2025-03-11 | 4 | |  | 行业事件快评：机器人《智元发布首个通用具身基座大模型 GO-1》2025-03-11 | 5 | |  ...

——爱婴室首次覆盖报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.12 深耕母婴零售，拓展高达基地 爱婴室(603214) 公 司 首 | | | | [Table_Invest] | 首次覆盖 | | --- | --- | | 评级 | 增持 | | 目标价格 | 28.00 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | 19.10 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间（元） | 9.95-24.96 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | 2,646 | | 总股本/流通A股（百万股） | 139/139 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万股） | 0/0 | [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) | 股东权益（百万元） | 1,097 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.92 | | 市净率（现价） | 2.4 | | 净负债率 | -2.88% | [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 -19% 6% 31% 55% 80% 105% 2024-03 2024-07 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [15][16]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield dropping from approximately 4.8% at the beginning of the year to around 4.3% [9][11]. - The "Trump trade" is experiencing a cooling off, similar to the trend observed in 2017, driven by slow implementation of tariff policies and weakening economic indicators in the U.S. [9][12]. - Positive carry is highlighted as a significant factor driving the strength of long-term bonds, providing a protective cushion in a volatile market environment [11][13]. Summary by Sections U.S. Treasury Yields - The report notes a rapid decline in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, which has decreased significantly despite rising inflation indicators [9][11]. - The market's focus on purchasing long-term U.S. Treasuries is emphasized as a safe trading strategy [11]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe suggests that the dollar's strength may not have reached its peak yet [12][14]. - The report also mentions that the market's reaction to clear directional signals often results in lower trading value, while positive carry trades can accumulate small victories into larger gains [13]. Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - The report suggests that the narrowing of the U.S.-Euro interest rate differential may lead to a stronger euro, indicating ongoing dynamics in the forex market [12][14]. - It is noted that the market's expectations for the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have remained stable despite the changes in U.S. rates [12].

[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 2025年3月5日 詹春立 张潇子骄 +852 2509 7745 +852 2509 5317 james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk hunter.zhang@gtjas.com.hk [Table_Summary] FICC 策略：倒挂再现，衰退几何？ 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 3个月 1年 2年 3年 5年 7年 10年 % 4/3/2025 3/2/2025 美债收益率曲线逐步变平至倒挂 资料来源： iFind ，国泰君安国际。 海 外 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 5 美债二次筑顶已经结束。十年期美债从 1 月中旬接近 4.8%的高位大幅回落至近期 4.2% 左右，完成了特朗普自选举成功后的"二次筑顶"。这印证了我们此前在一月初的判 断，彼时市场"再通胀交易"蔚然成风，加之 1 月经济基本面数据不弱，所以美债利率 水平持续走高。但我们当时认为更可能的情景是，关税力度大致符合或略强于预期，但 美联储政策受到掣肘，降息幅度并不像 ...