证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 热点追踪周报 由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第 224 期） 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 3.45%、4.26%、3.78%、5.03%、4.16%、 2.16%、6.08%、14.98%。中信一级行业指数中轻工制造、有色金属、通 信、国防军工、消费者服务行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、 综合金融、房地产、医药、建筑行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指 数中，十大军工集团、卫星导航、家居用品、卫星互联网、金属非金属、 航天军工、林木等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，共 620 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是机械、电子、基础化工行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是国防军工、有 色金属、轻工制造行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、科技板块创新高股 票数量最多；按 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 热点追踪周报 由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第 224 期） 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 3.45%、4.26%、3.78%、5.03%、4.16%、 2.16%、6.08%、14.98%。中信一级行业指数中轻工制造、有色金属、通 信、国防军工、消费者服务行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、 综合金融、房地产、医药、建筑行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指 数中，十大军工集团、卫星导航、家居用品、卫星互联网、金属非金属、 航天军工、林木等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，共 620 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是机械、电子、基础化工行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是国防军工、有 色金属、轻工制造行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、科技板块创新高股 票数量最多；按 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 美国 11 月 CPI 点评 通胀回落，指引失真 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 12 月 18 日，美国劳工统计局公布 11 月 CPI 通胀数据：同比来看，整体 CPI 录得 2.7%，较 9 月 下行 0.3 个百分点，核心 CPI 录得 2.6%，较 9 月回落 0.4 个百分点。环比数据因联邦政府停摆导致价格采 集受限，相关读数未能正常披露。 评论： 图1：11 月 CPI 通胀数据总览 | 行业类别 | | 11月CPI分项 ...

| 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 12 月 18 日，美国劳工统计局公布 11 月 CPI 通胀数据：同比来看，整体 CPI 录得 2.7%，较 9 月 下行 0.3 个百分点，核心 CPI 录得 2.6%，较 9 月回落 0.4 个百分点。环比数据因联邦政府停摆导致价格采 集受限，相关读数未能正常披露。 评论： 图1：11 月 CPI 通胀数据总览 | 行业类别 | | 11月CPI分项同比 | | | | 11月CPI分项环比 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6] Core Viewpoints - The MDI product market is experiencing a recovery, with price increases observed globally due to production cuts in both domestic and overseas facilities. As of December 15, the market price for polymer MDI has risen to 15,050 RMB/ton, an increase of 100 RMB/ton from the previous week and 500 RMB/ton from the previous month [3][7] - The company is expected to benefit from the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to stimulate demand in the U.S. housing market, thereby increasing the demand for MDI [4][19] - Wanhua Chemical is completing a technical upgrade of its 1 million tons/year ethylene plant, which is expected to significantly reduce production costs by switching to lower-cost ethane as a feedstock [20] - The company is actively developing lithium battery materials, with a focus on lithium iron phosphate and continuous graphite anode businesses, aiming for a production capacity of 1 million tons of lithium iron phosphate by 2027 [21][25] - Wanhua Chemical is a leader in the polyurethane industry, and due to the recent price increases in polyurethane, the company's net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to 15.87 billion RMB and 17.62 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.05 RMB and 5.61 RMB [5][26] Summary by Sections MDI Market Dynamics - Global polyurethane companies have raised MDI and TDI prices, with Wanhua Chemical increasing prices in various regions by 200-300 USD/ton [2] - The polymer MDI market price has shown a significant increase due to production cuts, with a forecasted increase in capacity from Wanhua's projects [3][7] Economic Factors - The U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to enhance housing demand and subsequently increase MDI demand [4][19] Production Cost Reduction - The completion of the technical upgrade of the ethylene plant is projected to lower production costs significantly, enhancing profitability [20] Growth in Lithium Battery Materials - The company is focusing on lithium battery materials as a second growth curve, with significant production milestones expected by 2027 [21][25] Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, reflecting the positive outlook from rising polyurethane prices [5][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The seasonal increase in cross - year funding demand is expected to drive up market interest rates in December [4][6][9][15][69] 3. Summary of Each Section Overseas Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and short - term US Treasury yields declined. The 3 - month US Treasury yield dropped to around 3.6%, and since November, the US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have remained stable [10] - The benchmark interest rates of Japan, the Eurozone, and the US are 0.5%, 2.15%, and 3.50 - 3.75% respectively [12] Domestic Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking Price Indicator Overview - In November, the central bank maintained a balanced and slightly loose funding environment. The average repurchase rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets fluctuated slightly. R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly averages changed by 4BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 1BP respectively [4][20] - Most short - term bond yields declined. The 1 - year Treasury bond, 1 - year CDB bond, 1 - year AAA commercial paper, 1 - year AA commercial paper, 1 - year AA - commercial paper, 1 - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit, and 1 - year AA+ inter - bank certificate of deposit changed by - 2BP, - 1BP, - 2BP, - 7BP, - 5BP, - 3BP, and - 2BP respectively [20] - In November, the average DR001 and DR007 increased slightly, with the 1 - day and 7 - day spreads changing by 1BP and - 1BP compared to the previous month [26] - The average exchange repurchase rates mostly declined. The 1 - day and 7 - day spreads between inter - bank and exchange rates changed by - 4BP and - 1BP compared to the previous month [31] - The average inter - bank certificate of deposit rates declined slightly. The spread between the 1 - year high - grade inter - bank certificate of deposit rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate widened slightly [37] - The balance of Yu'E Bao's 7 - day annualized return rate was 1.02%, and the average return of the top ten money funds continued to decline [47] Quantity Indicator Overview - In November, the overnight trading volume and proportion in the exchange market decreased compared to the previous month, while those in the inter - bank market increased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market was 7.45 trillion, accounting for 88.5%, and that of GC001 in the exchange market was 2.00 trillion, accounting for 87.5% [51] - In November, M0 increased seasonally, and the excess deposit reserve ratio declined slightly. The central bank made a net investment through open - market operations, and the estimated excess deposit reserve ratio in November was 1.1% [55] - The year - on - year monthly average of the bond balance to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased. The year - on - year increase in the inter - bank bond balance to be repurchased was 0.4%, and that in the exchange market was 2% [59] - The volatility index of repurchase rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased compared to the previous month [64] Funding Outlook Five - Channel Forecast - M0: In November, M0 increased seasonally by 189.1 billion, and it is estimated to increase by 350 billion in December [71] - Required deposit reserves: In November, RMB deposits of financial institutions increased seasonally by 1.41 trillion, less than the same period last year. It is expected that deposits will decrease by 1 trillion in December, resulting in a decrease of 62 billion in required deposit reserves [75] - Fiscal deposits: In November, fiscal deposits decreased by 46.6 billion. It is expected that fiscal deposits will decrease by 600 billion in December [78] - Foreign exchange funds: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. It is expected that foreign exchange funds will decrease by 50 billion in December [83] - Open - market operations: The central bank is expected to continue net investment to maintain a stable funding environment. It is estimated that the excess deposit reserve ratio in December will be 1.6% [91] Main Conclusion - The seasonal demand for year - end funds is expected to drive up market interest rates in December. The central bank has carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, the economic work conference has confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, and the large maturity volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit in December will cause seasonal pressure on the funding side [98]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 万华化学（600309.SH） MDI 产品景气回暖，锂电材料、新材料加速放量 |  公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 基础化工·化学制品 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 薛聪 | 010-88005107 | xuecong@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120001 | 事项： 事件：11 月下旬以来，全球主要聚氨酯企业相继上调 MDI 和 TDI 产品价格，覆盖多个区域市场。公司 12 月初以来分别上调拉丁美洲、中东、非洲、土耳其、东南亚、南亚地区 MDI 或 TDI 价格 200-300 美元/吨， 匈牙利 BC 也宣布对所有 MDI 产品涨价 300 欧元/吨。 国信化工观点： 1）受海外、国内多装置减产影响，MDI 价格上行：截至 12 月 15 日，聚合 MDI 市场价格上涨至 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas currency market: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and short - term US Treasury yields declined [4][10]. - Domestic currency market in November: Repo rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets had small fluctuations, with R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly averages changing by 4BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 1BP respectively; most 1 - year short - bond yields declined; exchange overnight trading volume and proportion decreased, while inter - bank trading volume and proportion increased; the year - on - year monthly average of bond balances to be repurchased in both markets increased; estimated excess deposit reserve ratios for November and December were 1.1% and 1.6% respectively [4]. - Outlook for December: Seasonal increase in year - end fund demand is expected to drive up market interest rates [4][6][9][15][69]. Summary by Directory Overseas Key Currency Market Indicator Changes Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, and the 3 - month US Treasury yield dropped to around 3.6%. Since November, the US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have remained stable [10]. Domestic Key Currency Market Indicator Changes Tracking Price Indicators - The central bank maintained a balanced and loose fund environment in November. Repo rate averages in the inter - bank and exchange markets had small fluctuations. R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly averages changed by 4BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 1BP respectively, reaching 1.43%, 1.42%, 1.50%, and 1.50%. Most 1 - year short - bond yields declined [20]. - In the inter - bank market, the R001 monthly average rose, and the R007 fluctuation range narrowed. The money market weighted average rate fluctuated around the 7 - day reverse repo rate [21]. - DR001 and DR007 monthly averages rose slightly, with 1 - day and 7 - day spreads changing by 1BP and - 1BP respectively [26]. - Exchange repo rate averages mostly declined, and the 1 - day and 7 - day spreads between inter - bank and exchange rates changed by - 4BP and - 1BP respectively [31]. - The 1 - year high - grade inter - bank certificate of deposit (ICD) rate dropped by 3BP, and the low - grade ICD rate dropped by 2BP. The spread between the 1 - year high - grade ICD rate and the 7 - day reverse repo rate widened slightly [37]. - Most 1 - year short - bond interest rate monthly averages declined, and the spread between the 1 - year AAA short - term financing bill and Treasury bond interest rates remained unchanged [42]. - The Yu'E Bao yield was 1.02% in November, and the average return of the top ten money funds continued to decline. The 7 - day average annualized yields of Yu'E Bao and the top ten money funds changed by - 3BP and - 1BP respectively [47]. Quantity Indicators - In November, the exchange overnight trading volume and proportion decreased, while the inter - bank trading volume and proportion increased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market was 7.45 trillion, accounting for 88.5%, and the trading volume and proportion of GC001 in the exchange market were 2.00 trillion and 87.5% respectively [51]. - M0 increased seasonally in November, and the excess deposit reserve ratio declined slightly. After comprehensive consideration of five channels, the estimated excess deposit reserve ratio for November was 1.1% [55]. - The year - on - year monthly average of bond balances to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased. The inter - bank and exchange repo rate volatility indices rose [59][64]. Fund Outlook Five - Channel Forecast - M0: It increased by 189.1 billion in November, and is expected to increase by 350 billion in December [71]. - Required deposit reserves: Financial institution RMB deposits increased seasonally by 1.41 trillion in November, less than the same period last year. With the Spring Festival in February next year, deposits are expected to decrease by 1 trillion in December, leading to a 62 - billion decrease in required deposit reserves [75]. - Fiscal deposits: Fiscal deposits decreased by 46.6 billion in November due to increased year - end government spending and large net government bond financing. They are expected to decrease by 60 billion in December [78]. - Foreign exchange funds: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, causing the RMB to appreciate against the US dollar. Foreign exchange funds are expected to decrease by 5 billion in December [83]. - Open market operations: The central bank maintained a balanced and loose fund environment in November through open market operations,买断式逆回购, and Treasury bond trading. As of now in December, it has conducted 1.6 trillion in买断式逆回购 operations, achieving a net injection of 200 billion, and is expected to have a net injection of 50 billion for the whole month. After comprehensive consideration of the five - channel changes, the estimated excess deposit reserve ratio for December is 1.6% [91]. Main Conclusion - Due to the seasonal increase in year - end fund demand, market interest rates are expected to rise in December. The central bank has continued to increase the volume of reverse repo operations. The economic work conference in December confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy for next year. With a large amount of ICDs maturing in December and seasonal behavior of institutions at the end of the year, there is seasonal pressure on the fund market [98].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - November fiscal data shows a decline in fiscal strength, with general public budget revenue turning negative at -0.02% year-on-year, down from 3.2% [8][9] - Tax revenue decreased by 2.8%, with corporate income tax down by 5.2%, indicating continued pressure on corporate profitability [8][9] - Government fund budget revenue also saw a narrowing decline, with land transfer income down by 26.8%, while government fund expenditure turned positive at 2.8% year-on-year [8][9] Group 2: Wind Power Industry Investment Strategy - The wind power industry is expected to experience a boom in 2026, with domestic onshore wind installations projected to reach 120 GW, a 10% increase year-on-year [10][11] - The offshore wind market is anticipated to see new installations between 11-15 GW in 2026, with significant projects commencing in regions like Jiangsu and Guangdong [10][11] - Key players to watch include Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Sany Heavy Energy in the onshore segment, and Daikin Heavy Industries and Oriental Cable in the offshore segment [11] Group 3: Huazhu Group Insights - The hotel industry is undergoing a structural adjustment, with a focus on balancing supply and demand, as leisure travel grows steadily while business travel remains low [13][14] - Huazhu's business model emphasizes a strong product lineup and digital management, with a membership base exceeding 300 million, leading to a competitive edge in revenue management [14][15] - The company aims to expand its mid-range and high-end hotel offerings significantly by 2030, with a projected increase in the number of hotels to 18,000 [15] Group 4: Weiteou Company Analysis - Weiteou reported a 24% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters, reaching 1.06 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.84% [16][17] - The company is focusing on domestic market penetration in microelectronics soldering materials, with a market share of approximately 7% in solder paste [18] - Weiteou's dual-platform strategy aims to enhance its product matrix and expand into new materials, with expectations of revenue growth to 1.54 billion yuan by 2027 [19] Group 5: Tencent Holdings Overview - Tencent's overseas cloud and gaming businesses are expected to drive growth, with cloud revenue projected to reach 757 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for 32% of total gaming revenue [20][21] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance game development efficiency and user experience, with significant improvements noted in production processes [21][22] - Tencent's strategic investments in overseas gaming studios are beginning to yield results, with a strong focus on replicating successful domestic models in international markets [21]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月18日 一般公共预算收入由正转负，支出降幅收窄。11 月财政收入当月同比-0.02%，前值 3.2%，由正转负。税 收收入 2.8%，较前值下行；非税收入-10.8%，降幅在高基数下显著收窄，可能是地方加大盘活资产力度。 2025 年 11 月财政数据快评 财政力度继续下滑 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 1-11 月，全国一般公共预算收入 200516 亿元，同比增长 0.8%；其中，全国税收收入 164814 亿元，同比 增长 1.8%；非税收入 35702 亿元，同比下降 ...