固定收益研究 证券研究报告 地方债月报 2025 年 4 月 1 日 全年隐债置换进度逾三分之二 ——地方政府债券月报 第一，截至 2025 年 3 月，地方政府债共发行 463 只，总规模 2.84 万亿元。 截至 3 月 31 日，2025 年地方政府债共发行 463 只，总规模 2.84 万亿元。具体来看，山东、福建、湖北、广 东、北京发行数量最多，分别发行 39、33、28、27、27 只地方政府债；从发行规模来看，江苏、广东、山东、四 川发行债券规模位列前位，分别为 4047.94 亿元、2068.85 亿元、2052.68 亿元和 1638.27 亿元。 图2 地方债发行进度（发行量：亿元） 图3 地方债发行进度（净融资额：亿元） 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/112/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 金融工程研究 证券研究报告 金融工程月报 2025 年 04 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《风格及行业观点月报（2025.03）》 2025.03.03 《大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.03）》 2025.03.03 《大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.02）》 2025.02.10 大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.04） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 风险提示：模型失效风险、因子失效风险、海外市场波动风险。 分析师:郑雅斌 Tel:(021)23219395 Email:zhengyb@haitong.com 证书:S0850511040004 联系人:曹君豪 Tel:(021)23185657 Email:cjh13945@haitong.com 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_AuthorInfo] 大类资产 2 季度配臵信号。根据 2025 年 3 月底的最新数据，信用利差和期限利 差均发出收窄信号，Q2 宏观环境预测结果为 Inflation。 宏观动量模型配臵信 ...

- Model Name: Macro + Price-Volume Dual-Drive Large-Cap Rotation Strategy - Model Construction Idea: Integrate effective factors from macroeconomic and micro price-volume dimensions to drive large-cap style rotation[6] - Model Construction Process: - Combine signals from various factors such as monetary flow, PMI quarterly average, social financing weighted year-on-year, China-US interest rate spread, macro adjustment momentum, narrow style crowding, and broad large-cap crowding[7] - Assign signal values: 1 for large-cap signal, -1 for small-cap signal, 0 for no effective signal[7] - Formula: $ \text{Comprehensive Score} = \sum \text{Factor Signals} $ - Allocation: - If comprehensive score > 0, allocate fully to CSI 300 Index - If comprehensive score < 0, allocate fully to CSI 1000 Index - If comprehensive score = 0, equally allocate to CSI 300 and CSI 1000 Index[7] - Model Evaluation: The backtest win rate for Q1 2025 is 82.22%[6] - Model Name: Macro Price-Volume Dual-Drive Value-Growth Rotation Strategy - Model Construction Idea: Integrate effective factors from macroeconomic and micro price-volume dimensions to drive value-growth style rotation[11] - Model Construction Process: - Combine signals from various factors such as PMI new orders weighted month-on-month, PPI-CPI quarterly average difference, 1Y government bond quarterly average difference, 3M US bond level, macro adjustment momentum, style crowding, and market sentiment[12] - Assign signal values: 1 for value signal, -1 for growth signal, 0 for no effective signal[12] - Formula: $ \text{Comprehensive Score} = \sum \text{Factor Signals} $ - Allocation: - If comprehensive score > 0, allocate fully to CSI Value Index - If comprehensive score < 0, allocate fully to CSI Growth Index - If comprehensive score = 0, equally allocate to CSI Value and CSI Growth Index[12] - Model Evaluation: The backtest win rate for Q1 2025 is 77.78%[11] - Factor Name: Composite Factor Strategy - Factor Construction Idea: Integrate factors from historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, price-volume technicals, and macroeconomic dimensions to score industries[2] - Factor Construction Process: - Select 5 industries from 30 primary industries in CITIC, construct an equal-weighted long portfolio[17] - Evaluate performance based on absolute and excess returns[20] - Factor Evaluation: Composite factor strategy's excess return for March is 1.45%[2] - Factor Name: Single Factor Multi-Strategy - Factor Construction Idea: Use individual factors from historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, price-volume technicals, and macroeconomic dimensions to score industries[2] - Factor Construction Process: - Select 5 industries from 30 primary industries in CITIC, construct an equal-weighted long portfolio[17] - Evaluate performance based on absolute and excess returns[20] - Factor Evaluation: Single factor multi-strategy's excess return for March is 2.52%[2] Model Backtest Results - Macro + Price-Volume Dual-Drive Large-Cap Rotation Strategy - Interval Return: -1.21%[9] - Annualized Return: -4.92%[10] - Annualized Volatility: 14.80%[10] - Maximum Drawdown: 5.40%[10] - Sharpe Ratio: -0.33[10] - Calmar Ratio: -0.91[10] - Macro Price-Volume Dual-Drive Value-Growth Rotation Strategy - Interval Return: 0.46%[15] - Annualized Return: 1.94%[16] - Annualized Volatility: 17.51%[16] - Maximum Drawdown: 5.23%[16] - Sharpe Ratio: 0.11[16] - Calmar Ratio: 0.37[16] Factor Backtest Results - Composite Factor Strategy - Last Month Absolute Return: 1.34%[20] - Last Month Excess Return: 1.45%[20] - 2025 Absolute Return: 6.37%[20] - 2025 Excess Return: 5.94%[20] - Single Factor Multi-Strategy - Last Month Absolute Return: 2.41%[20] - Last Month Excess Return: 2.52%[20] - 2025 Absolute Return: 4.29%[20] - 2025 Excess Return: 4.05%[20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][8] Core Views - The company is transitioning to a full-color LED chip supplier, expanding from GaN-based blue-green LED epitaxial wafers and chips to GaAs-based red-yellow LED epitaxial wafers and chips [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.76 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.23%, and a net profit of 196 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 61.44% [8] - The LED market is expected to reach a value of 13.003 billion USD in 2025, despite challenges such as increased costs due to tariffs and suppressed consumer demand [8] - The company maintains industry-leading profitability due to refined management and advantages from late-stage equipment procurement [8] - Future revenue growth is anticipated from the completion of the annual production of 2.4 million red-yellow LED epitaxial wafers and chips [9] Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.332 billion yuan, 3.882 billion yuan, and 4.543 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.41 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.62 yuan [7][10] - The gross margin is expected to improve, with projections of 15.71%, 17.04%, and 17.22% for 2025-2027 [9][10] - The company’s net profit is forecasted to grow significantly, with estimates of 276 million yuan in 2025, 343 million yuan in 2026, and 417 million yuan in 2027 [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [3][4] - The overall gross margin increased by 0.21 percentage points to 32.03% in 2024, despite the revenue decline [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.5 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 56.5 billion yuan, a decline of 16.38% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [3][4] - The diluted EPS for 2024 was 2.1 yuan, and the return on equity was 7.88% [3] - The operating cash flow for the year was 7.94 billion yuan [3] Revenue Breakdown - Sales of duty-free goods and taxable goods decreased by 12.58% and 23.49% respectively, with gross margins of 39.50% and 13.45% [5] - Revenue from Hainan and Shanghai regions was 28.89 billion yuan and 16.03 billion yuan, down 27.13% and 10.02% year-on-year, with gross margins of 23.73% and 25.80% respectively [5] Expense Analysis - The total selling expenses for 2024 were 9.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%, with a selling expense ratio of 16.0%, up 2.1 percentage points [6] - Management expenses were 1.99 billion yuan, with a management expense ratio of 3.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points [6] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate a revenue of 60.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 7.4%, with a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% [6][8] - The projected PE ratio for 2025 is between 30-35 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 69.6 to 81.2 yuan [6]

股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 31日收盘价（元）] 26.51 | | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） 19.87-30.05 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） 2214/2214 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 58692/58692 | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《2024 年销量稳居第一，出口持续发力》 | | 2025.01.11 | | 《2024Q3 业绩累计同比显著提升，客车销量 | | 继续增长》2024.10.30 | | 《业绩优秀，布局自动驾驶》2024.07.25 | | 市场表现 | [Table_QuoteInfo] -14.08% -3.08% 7.92% 18.92% 29.92% 40.92% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 宇通客车 海通综指 | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅（%） | 0.6 | -7.0 | 4.5 | | 相对涨幅（%） | 0.7 | -8.8 | 6.9 | ...

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 0[4Table_StockInfo 月 01日收盘价（元）] | 28.56 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 17.70-36.42 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 1778/1419 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 50785/40538 | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《康龙化成 2023 年报点评：全年收入利润保 持增长态势，看好一体化 CXO 龙头长期稳健 发展》2024.04.01 市场表现 [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/医药与健康护理/医疗保健提供商与服务 证券研究报告 康龙化成（300759）公司年报点评 2025 年 04 月 01 日 [Table_QuoteInfo] -16.76% 2.24% 21.24% 40.24% 59.24% 78.24% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 康龙化成 海通综指 | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance has been impacted by the real estate sector, while the exhibition and commercial income segments have shown growth [8] - The company has a dual operational model of "exhibition + real estate," which is expected to enhance resource integration and industry interaction [8] - The report projects that the company's EPS and BPS for 2025 will be 0.04 yuan and 2.91 yuan respectively, with a dynamic PB of 0.6-0.7 times, leading to a reasonable value range of 1.75 yuan to 2.04 yuan [8] Financial Data and Forecast - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve operating revenue of 71.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54.6%, primarily due to reduced income from the real estate development segment [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -28.27 billion yuan, a decline of 54.71% year-on-year [8] - The exhibition and commercial property segment is anticipated to generate revenue of 29.61 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an increase of 11.77% year-on-year [8] - The real estate development segment is expected to report revenue of 40.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 68.92% year-on-year [8] - The company has managed to host 2,243 events in its self-owned venues and hotels, marking a 1.9% increase year-on-year, with significant events attracting 5.8625 million attendees, a 20.6% increase [8] - The company’s contract sales amount and area for 2024 are projected to be 44.26 billion yuan and 339,500 square meters respectively [8] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 1.73 yuan on March 31, with a 52-week price fluctuation between 1.25 and 2.47 yuan [2] - The total market capitalization is 58.25 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 46.02 billion yuan [2] - The report indicates a relative performance against the market index, with absolute returns of -5.5% over 1 month, 1.8% over 2 months, and -11.7% over 3 months [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Lululemon's FY24 performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue growth of 12.7% and net profit growth of 11.8% in Q4, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates [5] - The report anticipates a challenging FY25 for Lululemon due to increased investments, tariffs, and currency headwinds, projecting a revenue guidance of $11.15-11.3 billion, which is slightly below consensus expectations [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in consumer confidence and retail performance, particularly in the context of the ongoing recovery in the sports and outdoor sectors [5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector saw a decline of 2.38% in the last week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.39 percentage points [8] - The current PE valuation for the textile and apparel sector is 18.64 times, which is below the historical average of 25.69 times [8][15] Company Performance - Lululemon's Q4 revenue and net profit growth were driven by strong holiday season sales and new product launches, with same-store sales increasing by 3% [5] - The company plans to accelerate store openings in FY25, with a target of 40-45 new stores and a 10% increase in total store area [5] Consumer Trends - Retail sales data for January-February 2025 shows a 4.00% year-on-year increase in total retail sales, with clothing retail sales increasing by 2.60% [18] - The report notes a significant increase in textile and apparel exports, amounting to approximately $28.069 billion in January-February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.07% [20] Material Prices - Cotton prices have shown a slight decline, with the China 328 cotton price index down by 0.32% [22] - The report tracks various material prices, indicating fluctuations in polyester and nylon prices, which could impact manufacturing costs [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Weichai Power, indicating an expected stock performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [2][56]. Core Insights - Weichai Power is positioned as one of China's strongest automotive and equipment manufacturing groups, with growth driven by the rapid development of the AIDC diesel generator market, collaboration with KION in Europe, and a cyclical recovery in heavy-duty trucks and natural gas trucks [2][4]. - The projected net profits for Weichai Power are estimated at 12.6 billion, 15.2 billion, and 17 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][56]. Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 235.52 billion, 254.64 billion, and 273.33 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 8.1%, and 7.3% [3][55]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit estimates for the same years are 12.645 billion, 15.241 billion, and 16.979 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.9%, 20.5%, and 11.4% [3][56]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to be 1.45, 1.75, and 1.95 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][56]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 22.4% in 2024 to 23.0% in 2027 [3][55]. Business Segments - Weichai Power's business is divided into clear segments, including diesel engines and other products, with significant contributions from heavy-duty trucks and smart logistics [5][15]. - The smart logistics segment is projected to generate revenues of 93.16 billion CNY by 2025, with a gross margin of 27.3% [55]. Market Opportunities - The AIDC diesel generator market is anticipated to grow significantly, with a potential market size reaching approximately 500 billion CNY by 2030 [30][31]. - The heavy-duty truck market is showing signs of recovery, with a 36% year-on-year increase in domestic heavy-duty truck sales in February 2025 [50][53]. KION Group Performance - KION Group, a key subsidiary of Weichai Power, reported a revenue of 11.5 billion euros in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1% [41][42]. - The KION Group's EBIT for 2024 was 917 million euros, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year [41][42]. Conclusion - The report highlights Weichai Power's strong market position and growth potential, supported by robust financial forecasts and strategic initiatives in both domestic and international markets [2][56].