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行业轮动ETF策略周报(20250818-20250824)-20250825
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-25 07:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The strategy based on industry and theme ETFs constructed by Hengtai Securities Research Institute has achieved certain results. From August 18 - 22, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 6.08%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.79%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 15.90%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 0.76% [3]. - For the week of August 25 - 29, 2025, the model recommends allocating sectors such as communication equipment, industrial metals, and batteries. The strategy will newly hold products like Battery ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF, and Industrial Mother Machine ETF, and continue to hold products such as Communication Equipment ETF, Industrial Non - ferrous Metals ETF, and Satellite ETF [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Portfolio Construction - Hengtai Securities Research Institute constructed a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs according to the strategy reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2]. 3.2 ETF Portfolio Information | Fund Code | ETF Name | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Holding Status | Heavy - held Shenwan Industry and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159583 | Communication Equipment ETF | 2.68 | Continue to hold | Communication equipment (73.61%) | 1 | 1 | | 560860 | Industrial Non - ferrous Metals ETF | 18.08 | Continue to hold | Industrial metals (54.97%) | 1 | 1 | | 159755 | Battery ETF | 48.90 | Add to portfolio | Battery (60.37%) | 1 | 1 | | 588170 | Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF | 4.09 | Add to portfolio | Semiconductor (87.1%) | 1 | 1 | | 159667 | Industrial Mother Machine ETF | 6.53 | Add to portfolio | Automation equipment (45.3%) | - 1 | 1 | | 159206 | Satellite ETF | 2.05 | Continue to hold | Military electronics (34.22%) | 1 | 1 | | 516150 | Rare Earth ETF Harvest | 58.89 | Add to portfolio | Minor metals (34.67%) | 1 | 1 | | 560170 | Central State - owned Enterprises Science and Technology ETF | 14.17 | Add to portfolio | Aviation equipment (22.35%) | 1 | 1 | | 588830 | Science and Technology Innovation New Energy ETF | 5.73 | Add to portfolio | Photovoltaic equipment (47.93%) | 1 | 1 | | 159698 | Grain ETF | 2.06 | Add to portfolio | Planting industry (48.33%) | 1 | 1 | [3] 3.3 Performance Tracking - From August 18 - 22, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 6.08%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.79%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 15.90%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 0.76% [3]. 3.4 Portfolio Adjustment - In the week of August 25, 2025, products such as Battery ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF, and Industrial Mother Machine ETF will be newly held, while products like Gold Stock ETF, Game ETF, and Innovation Drug ETF will be removed from the portfolio [3][12].
高端制造行业ETF双周报(20250804-20250815):新藏铁路公司成立,2025世界机器人大会举办-20250818
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-18 10:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.11% over the past two weeks. The machinery equipment sector index increased by 8.79%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [10][17] - The humanoid robot index has seen a remarkable increase of 8.61% in the last two weeks, with a year-to-date rise of 46.54% and a 52-week increase of 123.29% [31] Market Performance Summary 1. Industry ETF Market Review - The A-share market has been strong, with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.11%. The military industry index showed noticeable differentiation, with the automation equipment indices, represented by robots and industrial mother machines, outperforming the CSI 300 index significantly [10][17] - The humanoid robot index and related ETFs have all seen increases exceeding 8% [10] 2. Overall Industry Performance - The machinery equipment sector index rose by 8.79%, ranking 2nd out of 31 sectors, while the national defense and military sector index increased by 4.53%, ranking 15th out of 31 sectors [17][18] - All five sub-sectors of machinery equipment saw increases, with general and specialized equipment sub-sectors rising over 10% [18] 3. Company Dynamics - *ST Chengchang reported a turnaround with a net profit of 56.63 million, driven by increased demand and order volume [39] - Huari Precision's net profit grew by 18.8%, focusing on aerospace and robotics-related tool development [39] - Aerospace Hanyu achieved a 52% increase in net profit, completing multiple tooling designs for aircraft [40] - Jili Rigging's net profit surged by 137.21%, emphasizing deep-sea mooring system R&D [41] 4. Industry News - The establishment of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway Company marks a significant step in infrastructure development [45] - The 2025 World Robot Conference was held in Beijing, showcasing advancements in robotics [47] 5. Recommended ETFs - Suggested ETFs include Guotai Zhongzheng Military ETF (512660.SH), Huaxia National Aerospace ETF (159227.SZ), Huaxia Zhongzheng Robot ETF (562500.SH), and Guotai Zhongzheng Machine Tool ETF (159667.SZ) [48]
信用债ETF双周报(20250804-20250815):科创债ETF增速放缓,可转债ETF资金持续净流入-20250818
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-18 10:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond index led the market, while the sci - tech innovation bond index and the benchmark market - making credit bond index declined this period, with negative stage returns. Convertible bond - related ETFs led the gains, sci - tech innovation bond ETFs/benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had negative current - period yields, and short - term financing ETFs had positive current - period returns [1]. - The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) exceeded 5 billion yuan, and the scale growth rate of sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs slowed down. The benchmark market - making credit bond ETF still ranked first in terms of scale [1]. - The primary - market issuance of bond index sample bonds was differentiated. Short - term financing had the largest issuance volume and scale, and the coupon rates of bond index sample bonds were relatively low, with concentrated issuance terms [1]. - In the secondary market, convertible bond - related index component bonds had the largest trading volume, and the component bonds of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index were traded at a discount. The credit spreads of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index and the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index were relatively high but less than 40bp [1]. - In the past two weeks, the cancellation of bond issuance amounted to 1.745 billion yuan, and the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on the VAT policy for the interest income of bonds such as treasury bonds [1]. - It is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and China Securities Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Bond Index Market Conditions**: The convertible bond index led the market. The Shanghai Investment - Grade Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index had significant gains in the past two weeks, outperforming most pure - bond indexes. Affected by the bond market fluctuations and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the sci - tech innovation bond index and the benchmark market - making credit bond index declined. The China Securities Financial Bond Index and the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index had the largest declines, while the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index, the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index, and the 0 - 4 - year Local Government Bond Index had positive stage returns due to their short durations [6]. - **Bond ETF Market Conditions**: Convertible bond - related ETFs led the gains, sci - tech innovation bond ETFs/benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had negative current - period yields, and short - term financing ETFs had positive current - period returns [8]. - **Bond ETF Unit Net Value**: The unit net value performance of bond ETFs was differentiated. Convertible bond - related ETFs showed an upward - fluctuating trend in 2025, breaking through 13 yuan in the past two weeks. Sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs had a downward - fluctuating net value after listing, with all net values falling below 100 yuan as of August 15, 2025. The short - term financing ETFs had a stable and rising unit net value, exceeding 112.2 yuan as of August 15, 2025 [12]. - **Bond ETF Fund Flows**: Convertible bond - related ETFs/short - term financing ETFs had continuous net inflows of funds, and local government bond - related ETFs were actively traded. The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) increased by a total of 7.759 billion yuan in the past two weeks. The short - term financing ETF (511360.SH) had a subscription scale of 5.802 billion yuan in the past two weeks [25]. Credit Bond ETF Overview The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) exceeded 5 billion yuan, and the scale growth rate of sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs slowed down. The benchmark market - making credit bond ETF still ranked first in terms of scale. The annualized yields of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) were 26.57% and 19.25% respectively. Among pure - bond ETFs, Credit Bond ETF Dacheng (159395.SZ) had the highest annualized yield of 2.25%. Nine sci - tech innovation bond - related ETF products had negative annualized yields after listing in July [30]. Primary Market - **Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds**: The primary - market issuance of bond index sample bonds was differentiated. Short - term financing had the largest issuance volume and scale, convertible bond - related indexes had the smallest issuance scale, and the coupon rates of bond index sample bonds were relatively low. The issuance terms of bond index sample bonds were concentrated, with the weighted issuance term of China Securities Short - Term Financing sample bonds being 0.61 years and that of the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index sample bonds being 9.18 years [33]. - **Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds Since This Year**: The issuance of sci - tech innovation bond - related indexes and the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index sample bonds accelerated in June and July. In early August, the issuance rates of most sample bonds increased, and the issuance terms of sci - tech innovation bond - related index sample bonds shortened [35]. Secondary Market - **Trading of Important Bond Index Component Bonds**: Convertible bond - related index component bonds had the largest trading volume, and the component bonds of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index were traded at a discount. The trading volumes of the 0 - 4 - year Local Government Bond, Shanghai 5 - year Local Government Bond, and 5 - year Local Government Bond were less than 200 million yuan, with poor liquidity [40]. - **Spreads of Important Credit Bond Indexes**: The credit spreads of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index and the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index were relatively high but less than 40bp. The yields of the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, Shenzhen AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index, China Securities Short - Term Financing Index, and Shanghai Market - Making Corporate Bond Index all increased in the past two weeks [43]. Credit Events and Market News - **Deferred/Cancelled Bond Issuance**: The cancelled issuance amount in the past two weeks was 1.745 billion yuan. Due to large market interest - rate fluctuations in the past two weeks, 15 bonds were cancelled for issuance, with a planned issuance amount of 1.745 billion yuan [48]. - **Market News**: Since August 8, 2025, the VAT on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds (including those issued after August 8, 2025) has been restored. The interest income of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds issued before this date (including the part issued after August 8, 2025) will continue to be exempt from VAT until the bonds mature [50]. Investment Recommendations The sentiment in the bond market was weak. Although the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, the fundamentals still favored the bond market. The central bank's open - market operations maintained a net withdrawal in the past two weeks, the capital market was slightly tight, and bond valuation yields increased. It is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and China Securities Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [51].
宏观利率周报:央行重提防空转“弱现实”和“强预期”仍待收敛-20250818
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-18 10:31
Economic Data - July economic data showed significant decline, with fixed asset investment down 0.63% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year, totaling 288,229 billion RMB[12] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.0% year-on-year, amounting to 53,580 billion RMB, with residential investment down 10.9%[12] - Social retail sales in July reached 38,780 billion RMB, growing 3.7% year-on-year, while retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 4.3%[12] Financial Trends - Non-bank financial institutions saw a deposit increase of 2.14 trillion RMB in July, reflecting a trend of residents moving deposits towards financial products[13] - Total deposits increased by 500 billion RMB in July, with household deposits decreasing by 1.1 trillion RMB[13] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasized the need to prevent fund diversion, indicating potential delays in interest rate cuts[1] Market Outlook - The central bank's recent actions, including a buyout-style reverse repo, led to a rapid rise in ten-year government bond yields to 1.75%, indicating a steepening yield curve[1] - The report suggests maintaining a cautious stance until the "weak reality" and "strong expectations" converge[1] - The upcoming fiscal policies include personal consumption loan subsidies, which may enhance consumer spending and support economic recovery[10]
食品饮料行业:茅台业绩平稳落地,重视业绩期景气度验证
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-18 10:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The liquor sector is currently in a bottom consolidation phase due to policy and demand recovery pressures, but there are opportunities for bottom-fishing as performance concerns have eased [1][3] - The beverage sector is experiencing good sales momentum, driven by health and functional demand, indicating a potential continuation of industry prosperity [1][3] - The report recommends focusing on ETFs such as the CSI Consumer ETF and the Hang Seng Consumer ETF, which are seen as scarce new consumption targets in the A-share market [1][3] Industry ETF Market Review - During the week of August 11-15, 2025, major food and beverage ETFs saw an overall increase, with the liquor ETF (512690.SH) and consumer ETF (159928.SZ) rising by +1.40% and +0.98% respectively [2][10] - The liquor ETF had a trading volume of 5.736 billion, marking it as the highest in the observed ETFs [2][11] - The total inflow for food and beverage-related ETFs was 1.101 billion, with the liquor ETF experiencing a net inflow of 658 million [11] Industry Sector Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% while the food and beverage sector only increased by 0.48%, underperforming both the Shanghai Composite and the CSI 300 Index [19] - The liquor sub-sector showed a slight increase of +0.93%, while soft drinks experienced the largest decline at -3.12% [21] - Year-to-date, the food and beverage sector has decreased by 6.11%, significantly underperforming the broader market indices [19][23] Industry News - Market demand remains weak, with prices continuing to decline, reaching new lows for the year [3][26] - Moutai's half-year revenue for 2025 was reported at 91.094 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, aligning with expectations [3][26] - New packaging specifications for Moutai have been introduced to meet market demand, including adjustments to box sizes and materials [3][60]
ETF市场流动性动态报告:通信、电子领涨,资金继续涌入港股概念ETF
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-18 10:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Last week, Chinese and US ten - year treasury bond yields rose slightly. The A - share market showed an upward trend, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Communication, electronics, and non - bank finance sectors led the rise, while the bank and steel sectors had negative returns. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased significantly, and the margin trading balance reached a new high this year. The overall ETF market had a net redemption inflow of about - 5.8 billion yuan, with bond - type and cross - border ETFs having net inflows, and stock - type ETFs having net outflows. Hong Kong - related concept ETFs had net capital inflows, while science - innovation, chip, and semiconductor ETFs had net outflows. Five ETF funds were listed last week, and 11 were waiting to be listed [2][10][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overall Situation - The copper - gold ratio can be regarded as a leading indicator of China's bond yields. Last week, China's ten - year treasury bond yield was 1.75%, and the US ten - year treasury bond yield was 4.33%, both rising slightly from the previous week and in low - level consolidation [10]. - The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0763 trillion yuan, a significant increase from the previous week. The margin trading balance reached about 2.0488 trillion yuan, a new high this year [10]. - Six stock - type ETFs were newly issued last week, with a total issuance scale of about 3.436 billion shares. Stock - type ETFs had a net redemption inflow of about - 24.3 billion yuan [10][11]. - The A - share market indices showed an upward trend, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.58%. Communication, electronics, and non - bank finance sectors led the rise, while the bank and steel sectors had negative returns. The industry congestion was relatively balanced [11]. 2. Hong Kong - related Concept ETFs' Net Capital Inflows Continued (1) Stock (Theme) ETFs' Net Redemption Outflows - The overall ETF market had a net redemption inflow of about - 5.8 billion yuan. Bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of about 12.6 billion yuan, cross - border ETFs had a net inflow of about 16.7 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of about 24.3 billion yuan. Stock (theme) ETFs had a net outflow of about 15.6 billion yuan, the main direction of stock - type ETFs' net outflows. The turnover rate of stock - type ETFs generally increased [25]. - Among broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF had a net redemption outflow. Among industry - themed ETFs, chip, semiconductor, and brokerage ETFs had net outflows, while Hong Kong - related concept ETFs had net inflows [25]. (2) Science - innovation, Chip, and Semiconductor ETFs' Net Capital Outflows Last Week - ETF redemption funds flowed into bond - type ETFs and some Hong Kong - related industry ETFs, while science - innovation, chip, and semiconductor ETFs had net outflows [35]. (3) Overview of Newly - listed and To - be - listed ETFs - Five ETF funds were listed last week, with a total share of about 1.9 billion. Eleven ETFs had completed fundraising and were waiting to be listed, with a total share of about 5 billion [3][40].
策略周报:行业轮动ETF策略周报(20250811-20250817)-20250818
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-18 06:10
Strategy Overview - Hengtai Securities has developed an ETF strategy based on industry rotation and thematic investments, referencing previous reports from October 2024[2] - The strategy includes a combination of industry and thematic ETFs to optimize investment performance[2] ETF Holdings and Performance - The total value of the ETFs held is approximately 144.96 billion CNY, with significant allocations in sectors such as communication equipment (73.61%) and gaming (81.29%)[3] - The strategy achieved a cumulative net return of about 2.04% from August 11 to August 15, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 ETF by 0.64%[3] - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy's cumulative return is approximately 9.26%, with an underperformance of 1.20% relative to the CSI 300 ETF[3] Weekly Recommendations - For the week of August 18 to August 22, 2025, the recommended sectors include communication equipment, precious metals, and gaming[12] - New positions will be added in communication equipment ETF, industrial metals ETF, and innovative pharmaceuticals ETF, while continuing to hold positions in gold stocks, gaming ETF, and satellite ETF[12] Risk Considerations - There is a risk of rapid style shifts within a week, which could impact ETF performance[7] - Some ETFs may experience abnormal increases in discount rates, posing additional risks to investors[7]
电子行业深度报告:电子:半导体延续高景气,看好模拟芯片和国产AI产业链
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-14 10:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the semiconductor and AI industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing high growth, with global sales expected to reach a record high of $700.9 billion in 2025, driven by logic and memory segments [5][16]. - The price increases from Texas Instruments (TI) are creating opportunities for domestic manufacturers to gain market share, particularly in high-margin segments like industrial and automotive electronics [5][24]. - The consumer electronics sector is seeing stable smartphone shipments with an expected 1.6% growth in 2025, alongside innovations in AI glasses that are anticipated to expand market size significantly [5][30][37]. - The PCB market is projected to grow due to high demand from AI data centers and other applications, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% expected from 2024 to 2029 [55][60]. Semiconductor Industry - Global semiconductor sales reached $59.91 billion in June, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, while China's sales were $17.24 billion, growing 13.1% [10][11]. - The growth in the semiconductor market is primarily driven by logic and memory segments, with projections for 2025 indicating a continued upward trend [16][18]. - The demand for DDR4 memory is expected to remain high due to ongoing production plans by Samsung, despite a shift towards newer technologies [18]. Consumer Electronics - Global smartphone shipments totaled 295 million units in Q2 2025, reflecting a 1% year-on-year increase, with brands like Samsung and Xiaomi showing notable performance [30][34]. - The introduction of new AI glasses is expected to enhance market acceptance and drive growth, with significant increases in shipment volumes projected for 2025 [37][39]. PCB Market - The global PCB market is anticipated to reach $73.57 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.8% driven by demand from AI and consumer electronics sectors [55][60]. - AI data centers are identified as a key growth area for PCB applications, necessitating advancements in high-performance and high-density designs [60][62].
人工智能行业专题报告:AIAgent应用加速落地,推荐人工智能ETF把握全产业链成长红利
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-13 11:34
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the AI industry, particularly focusing on AI Agent applications and related ETFs, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The AI sector has shown strong performance, with the AI index outperforming major indices in July, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [2][11]. - The AI Agent market is projected to reach a scale of 1.473 trillion yuan by 2024 and is expected to exceed 3.3 trillion yuan by 2028, driven by policy support and technological advancements [2][25]. - The launch of GPT-5 is seen as a pivotal moment for the AI Agent industry, marking 2025 as a potential breakout year for the sector [3][36]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In July, the AI sector outperformed the broader market, with the AI index rising by 5.37%, compared to 3.74% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 3.54% for the CSI 300 [11][12]. - Year-to-date, the AI index has increased by 21.11%, significantly higher than other indices [11]. AI Agent Application Acceleration - The AI Agent market is expected to benefit from a combination of policy support and technological breakthroughs, with a potential market size of 1 trillion yuan [25]. - The Chinese government has prioritized AI development, integrating it into key economic strategies and policies [25][26]. - The AI Agent is characterized by its ability to autonomously perceive environments and execute tasks, leveraging large language models [28]. Technology - The release of GPT-5 is anticipated to revolutionize the AI Agent landscape, enabling more complex task execution and automation [3][36]. - The technology framework for AI Agents is evolving, with significant investments from leading firms to enhance foundational model capabilities [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several AI-themed ETFs, including E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence ETF (159819) and Huaxia CSI Artificial Intelligence ETF (515070), which align closely with the AI Agent industry [4].
策略周报:行业轮动ETF策略周报-20250811
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-11 14:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy is based on the research reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) to construct a strategy portfolio of industry and theme ETFs [2] - In the week of 20250811, the model recommends allocating sectors such as joint - stock banks, games, and semiconductors. In the next week, the strategy will newly hold products like Game ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF, and Satellite ETF, and continue to hold products like Bank ETF, Financial Real Estate ETF, and Gold Stock ETF [2] - As of last weekend, some ETFs and the trading timing signals of the underlying indexes gave daily or weekly risk warnings [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Performance Tracking - During the period from 20250804 to 20250808, the cumulative net return of the strategy was about 2.62%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.41% [3] - From October 14, 2024, to the present, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 7.08%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.79% [3] Future 1 - Week Recommended ETFs (20250811 - 20250815) | Fund Code | ETF Name | Holding Status | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Heavy - Positioned Shenwan II Industry and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512800 | Bank ETF | Continue to hold | 151.38 | Joint - stock banks (44.73%) | 1 | - 1 | | 159869 | Game ETF | Transfer in | 73.17 | Games (81.29%) | 1 | 1 | | 588780 | Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF | Transfer in | 2.77 | Semiconductors (95.73%) | 1 | 1 | | 159940 | Financial Real Estate ETF | Continue to hold | 7.99 | Securities (29.12%) | 1 | - 1 | | 517520 | Gold Stock ETF | Continue to hold | 46.34 | Precious metals (41.51%) | 1 | 1 | | 510000 | Central Enterprise ETF | Continue to hold | 1.21 | State - owned large - scale banks (18.11%) | 1 | 1 | | 512690 | Wine ETF | Continue to hold | 152.39 | Baijiu (85.37%) | - 1 | - 1 | | 159206 | ZETF | Transfer in | 1.33 | Military electronics II (34.22%) | 1 | 1 | | 159786 | VRETF | Transfer in | 1.32 | Optoelectronics (26.64%) | 1 | 1 | | 159652 | Non - ferrous 50 ETF | Transfer in | 5.21 | Industrial metals (49.34%) | 1 | 1 | [9] Near 1 - Week ETF Holdings and Performance (20250804 - 20250808) | Fund Code | Current Holding Status | ETF Name | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Near 1 - Week Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 562550 | - | Green Power ETF | 1.21 | 1.50 | | 512800 | Continue to hold | Bank ETF | 151.38 | 1.99 | | 512690 | Continue to hold | Wine ETF | 152.39 | 1.06 | | 159768 | - | Real Estate ETF | 6.13 | 2.14 | | 159940 | Continue to hold | Financial Real Estate ETF | 7.99 | 1.41 | | 515220 | Transfer out | Coal ETF | 80.20 | 3.78 | | 159996 | Transfer out | Home Appliance ETF | 12.72 | 2.55 | | 510060 | Continue to hold | Central Enterprise ETF | 1.21 | 1.42 | | 516550 | Transfer out | Agricultural ETF | 1.87 | 1.76 | | 517520 | Continue to hold | Gold Stock ETF | 46.34 | 8.91 | | - | ETF Portfolio Average Return | - | - | 2.62 | | 510300 | - | CSI 300 ETF | 3819.72 | 1.21 | | - | ETF Portfolio Excess Return | - | - | 1.41 | [10]