Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The second-hand housing market is under increasing pressure, with Beijing's second-hand housing transaction area at 266,900 square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 1.14%, nearing levels seen in May 2024. Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction area is 366,500 square meters, close to levels in October 2024 [5][10] - The targeted easing of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing is expected to help reduce inventory in that area, signaling a positive outlook. Continuous monitoring of policy developments in Shanghai and Shenzhen is advised [5] - In the new housing market, developers are expected to increase supply towards the end of August to prepare for the "Golden September." High-quality products in core areas are likely to see stable sales, benefiting brands like China Resources Land, Binjiang Group, and Jianfa International Group [5] - The real estate sector outperformed the market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.11%, the CSI 300 Index by 1.23%, and the real estate sector by 2.16%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 0.05 percentage points and the CSI 300 by 0.93 percentage points [10] Market Performance - The report highlights that the real estate sector has shown resilience, with key A-share real estate stocks such as Heimu Dan, *ST Rongkong, and Yatong shares leading in gains [10] - In the Hong Kong market, companies like Huayin International Holdings, Shun Tak Holdings, and Hongyang Real Estate also showed significant gains [10] - The report notes that the transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities decreased week-on-week, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.71% [5][39] Policy Changes - Beijing's adjustment to purchase restrictions allows eligible families to buy an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, which includes both new and second-hand homes [5] Sales Trends - The report indicates that new home sales in 30 major cities have decreased, with a total sales area of 1.2645 million square meters last week, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.71%. First-tier cities saw a slight increase in sales, while second-tier cities experienced a more significant decline [5][39] Company Valuations and ETF Performance - The report provides a detailed valuation of key real estate companies, highlighting their market capitalization and expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to 2027 [85] - It also reviews the performance of real estate ETFs, noting weekly returns and net inflows for various funds [88]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the ETF market liquidity dynamics from August 4th to August 10th, 2025, including market trends, ETF market overview, and the inflow and outflow of funds in different types of ETFs [1][2]. Summary by Directory Market Overall Situation - China's 10 - year treasury bond yield remained basically flat at 1.69% last week, while the US 10 - year treasury bond yield rose slightly to 4.27% [1][9]. - The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1672.6 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous week. The margin trading balance reached a new high of about 1995.3 billion yuan [1][10]. - Last week, the A - share market issued 5 new stock - type ETFs, with a total issuance scale of about 1.559 billion shares [10]. - Stock - type ETFs had a net redemption inflow of about - 4.814 billion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index (+2.11%), and other major indices showed different degrees of increase. The defense and military industry (+5.93%), non - ferrous metals (+5.78%), and machinery and equipment (+5.37%) led the rise, while the pharmaceutical and biological (-0.84%) and computer (-0.41%) industries had negative returns [11]. - The defense and military industry had a congestion warning [11]. Hong Kong - related Concept ETFs - The overall ETF market had a net subscription inflow of about 14.6 billion yuan. Bond - type ETFs had an inflow of about 9 billion yuan, and cross - border ETFs had an inflow of about 11.8 billion yuan. Stock - type ETFs had a net inflow of about - 4.8 billion yuan, mainly due to the net outflow of broad - based ETFs of about - 9.7 billion yuan. The turnover rate of stock - type ETFs generally decreased [25]. - Brokerage ETFs had a net subscription inflow, while gold ETFs had a net outflow [25]. Gold ETFs and Game ETFs - Last week, ETF subscription and redemption funds flowed into bond - type ETFs and some Hong Kong - related industry ETFs, while game ETFs, gold ETFs, and stock broad - based ETFs had net outflows [35]. Newly - listed and Proposed - to - be - listed ETFs - Last week, 7 ETF funds were listed for trading, with a total share of about 3.6 billion. There were 10 ETFs that had completed fundraising and were waiting to be listed, with a total share of about 3.4 billion [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and notes that the industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% [3][23] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, as well as the oil and gas extraction industry, have shown a downward trend in fixed asset investment completion year-on-year since 2025 [21][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of the newly implemented energy-saving review and carbon emission evaluation measures, which aim to prevent disorderly capacity expansion and "involution" competition in the industry [22] Market Performance Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index experienced a decline of 0.54% during the period from July 28 to August 8, 2025 [3][11] - The top-performing industry indices during this period included SSH Gold Stocks (4.88%) and Subdivided Nonferrous Metals (0.83%) [3][10] - The report notes significant capital inflows into the infrastructure engineering sector, while the rare metals and nonferrous metals sectors saw substantial capital outflows [11] Key Industry Dynamics - In the chemical sector, the report indicates that major raw material purchase price indices reached a new high of 51.5% in July, reflecting a 2.1 percentage point increase from June [23] - The coal sector is under scrutiny, with the National Energy Administration planning to conduct production inspections in key coal-producing provinces to ensure stable supply [3][28] - The report suggests monitoring the Chemical ETF (159870.SZ) and Coal ETF (515220.SH) for potential investment opportunities [3][12] Company Updates - Wanhua Chemical announced the resumption of production at its Fujian Industrial Park, which had been under maintenance since June 5, 2025 [25] - Salt Lake Co. disclosed plans for share buybacks to enhance investor confidence, with a recent increase in shareholding by its controlling shareholder [26] - Juhua Co. projected a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with an expected growth of 146% to 166% year-on-year [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The current overcapacity is mainly concentrated in the mid - and downstream sectors. In July, the rise in commodity futures prices did not significantly boost inflation, and the PPI remained at a low level. After the implementation of new US tariffs, the "rush to export" phenomenon subsided, putting pressure on external demand. Domestic demand took over from external demand, reversing the trend of the trade balance, and the trade surplus narrowed in July. The policy hedging in areas such as preschool education is still insufficient. Meanwhile, the "anti - involution" concept cannot be falsified in the short term, and the pricing of major asset classes is unlikely to return to the "deflation" narrative of the second quarter due to the total demand shock. If the yield decline is too large, consider taking profits gradually [1]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond slightly declined to 1.69%, and the interest rate structure became steeper. On August 8, the central bank announced a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, indicating a loosening of liquidity. Although the interest rate has reached a peak in the short term, the decline of long - term interest rates is not smooth due to the disturbances in the stock market and commodity prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market News - **Diplomatic Response**: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to questions about secondary oil tariffs. China conducts normal economic and energy cooperation with countries including Russia, which is legitimate [8]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank carried out a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on August 8, 2025, with a term of 3 months. China's gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces in July, marking the 9th consecutive month of increase [8]. - **Industrial and Financial Policies**: The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free preschool education, exempting the tuition fees of children in the first year of public kindergartens from the 2025 autumn semester. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will guide the reduction of about 1 million breeding sows. Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new - type industrialization. The National Development and Reform Commission will accelerate the approval of new - type policy - based financial instruments, and government bond issuance is expected to speed up, which is expected to drive the recovery of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [8][9]. - **Economic Data**: In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, up from a 0.1% decline in the previous month, and was flat year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. China's trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, down from $114.75 billion in the previous month [10]. - **Off - shore Market**: The RWA registration platform was officially launched in Hong Kong, and three Web3.0 standards were established [10]. Overseas Key Data and Events - **Interest Rate Expectations**: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman expects three interest rate cuts this year [11]. - **Tariff Policies**: The US may impose additional tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the US for 6 months [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a bifurcation driven by dual forces of policy and technology, with a focus on capturing the benefits of leading companies through the Hong Kong automotive ETF [1][4]. - The market shows a preference for battery-related ETFs over traditional automotive stocks, indicating a shift towards electric and smart vehicles [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive ETF showed mixed performance, with the new energy vehicle ETF rising by 3.17% and the traditional automotive ETF declining by 0.86% [2][11]. - The automotive sector's performance lagged behind the broader market, with a growth of only 1.16% compared to the 3.92% increase in the CSI 300 index [2][23]. Industry Dynamics - Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles increased by 9% and 17% year-on-year, respectively, for July, maintaining an upward trend for the year [3][39]. - The new energy vehicle market saw retail sales of 789,000 units in July, a 15% increase year-on-year, despite a 17% decline month-on-month [42][46]. Industry Trend Outlook - The report predicts that the dual drivers of policy support and technological advancements will continue to enhance growth momentum in the automotive sector [3][53]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 50%, supported by ongoing subsidies and advancements in autonomous driving technology [4][55]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests an overweight position in the smart electric passenger vehicle segment, highlighting the potential for growth driven by policy support and technological advancements [4][55]. - The Hong Kong automotive ETF (520600.OF) is recommended for its concentrated exposure to leading new energy vehicle companies, which may benefit from performance recovery expectations [4][55].

Group 1: ETF Market Overview - The ETF market in China has shown significant growth in both scale and number, reaching a total market size of 42,236.60 billion yuan with 1,194 products as of July 15, 2025 [1][9][24] - Stock ETFs dominate the market, accounting for 72.45% of the total market size, with a scale of 30,602.16 billion yuan, while thematic ETFs lead in product quantity with 459 products [1][10][25] - The average management fee for ETFs is 0.28%, and the average custody fee is 0.07%, which are lower than those of open-end stock and bond funds [1][14][15] Group 2: Development Stages of the ETF Market - The development of the ETF market in China can be divided into three stages: initial development (2004-2008), continuous expansion (2009-2017), and rapid growth (2018-present) [2][22] - The market size surged from 18,423.26 billion yuan in 2023 to 35,613.43 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 93.31% increase, primarily driven by the central financial account's increased holdings in large-scale ETFs [2][27][31] Group 3: Comparison with International Markets - Compared to Japan and the United States, China's ETF market still has room for improvement, with Japan's central bank's long-term purchasing strategy serving as a potential model for China's central financial account [2][34][42] - The U.S. ETF market is the largest globally, with a total asset size of approximately 10.98 trillion USD and 3,913 products, showcasing a more mature market structure [42][44] Group 4: Innovation Directions in the ETF Market - The current innovation in China's ETF market includes the introduction of index-enhanced ETFs, margin trading ETFs, Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs, and technology innovation bond ETFs [3][47][56] - Future innovation directions may focus on incorporating ESG risk considerations in index compilation, expanding underlying assets to multi-asset ETFs, and increasing the coverage of T+0 trading mechanisms [3][58][62]

Group 1 - The report focuses on factor allocation research based on ETFs in the A-share market, providing effective strategies for investors to utilize ETFs for style allocation [2][4] - Style factors significantly influence the returns of A-share strategies, with notable style trends observed over the past decade, such as small-cap value and large-cap growth, leading to substantial excess returns when aligned with main style trends [2][10] - There are currently 107 factor strategy ETFs in China, with a total net asset value of approximately 127.06 billion, representing about 4.09% of the total net asset value of equity ETFs, but these products face challenges in style coverage and liquidity [2][14][17] Group 2 - The report proposes a stock-based ETF factor allocation scheme starting from holding styles, exemplified by the construction of a dividend low-volatility ETF combination that aligns closely with the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Total Return Index [2][26] - The use of ETF style scoring for factor allocation offers significant advantages, allowing for broader coverage of style factors and providing more liquid solutions when the scale of related factor strategy ETFs is small [2][36] - A multi-factor strategy is constructed based on the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on high-quality growth and high-margin safety combinations, with backtesting showing strong performance for both strategies [2][38][51] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of using a comprehensive ETF selection process to address the limitations of existing factor strategy ETFs, particularly in terms of style coverage and liquidity [2][18][36] - The methodology for constructing the dividend low-volatility ETF combination involves detailed indicator breakdowns and ETF product sorting based on style characteristics [2][26][30] - The performance analysis of the constructed multi-factor strategies indicates a strong correlation with benchmark indices, showcasing the effectiveness of the proposed ETF combinations [2][32][51]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from government bonds starting August 8, which may increase issuance pressure on government bonds[1] - The attractiveness of interest rate bonds is expected to decrease, potentially driving institutional funds towards risk assets[1] - Short-term interest rates may decline due to the increased value of existing bonds, while medium to long-term rates will depend on economic fundamentals and policy direction[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points[2] - The manufacturing PMI for July fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[2] - The weighted average interest rate for new commercial loans in Q2 was reported at 3.09%[2] Group 3: International Trade and Tariffs - The US has implemented a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products effective August 1, impacting market dynamics[2] - The US GDP annualized growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%[2] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are approximately 45%[2] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected tightening of liquidity and changes in monetary policy that could affect investment behavior[3]

Strategy Overview - The report focuses on constructing a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, utilizing quantitative analysis from previous strategy reports [2]. Strategy Update - For the week of August 4, 2025, the model recommends increasing allocations to sectors such as electricity, joint-stock banks, and liquor, while continuing to hold real estate and agriculture ETFs [2]. - New additions include Green Power ETF, Bank ETF, and Liquor ETF, with ongoing holdings in Real Estate ETF and Agriculture ETF [2]. - As of the last weekend, some ETFs and index trading timing signals provided daily or weekly risk alerts [2]. Performance Tracking - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the strategy recorded a cumulative net return of approximately -2.19%, with an excess return of about -0.53% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [2]. - Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative return of the strategy outside the sample period is approximately 4.34%, with an excess return of about -2.17% relative to the CSI 300 ETF [2].

证券分析师：张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn ETF周度市场行情跟踪 说明：本篇不涉及投资建议，仅针对市场数据整理 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn （20250721-20250725） 本周市场行情 | | | | | 境内员 = 指数 | | | | | | | 境外式具 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 本周涨跌幅% | 上周涨跌幅% | 5.0 | | | | 代码 | 简称 | 本周涨跌幅% | 上周涨跌幅% | | SH | 沪深300 | 1.69 | 1.09 | 4.0 | | | | HSI . HK | 恒生指数 | 2.27 | 2. 84 | | SH | 上证50 | 1.12 | 0. 28 | | | | | HSTECH. HK | 恒生科技 | 2. 51 | 5.53 | | SH | ...