Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a bifurcation driven by dual forces of policy and technology, with a focus on capturing the benefits of leading companies through the Hong Kong automotive ETF [1][4]. - The market shows a preference for battery-related ETFs over traditional automotive stocks, indicating a shift towards electric and smart vehicles [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive ETF showed mixed performance, with the new energy vehicle ETF rising by 3.17% and the traditional automotive ETF declining by 0.86% [2][11]. - The automotive sector's performance lagged behind the broader market, with a growth of only 1.16% compared to the 3.92% increase in the CSI 300 index [2][23]. Industry Dynamics - Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles increased by 9% and 17% year-on-year, respectively, for July, maintaining an upward trend for the year [3][39]. - The new energy vehicle market saw retail sales of 789,000 units in July, a 15% increase year-on-year, despite a 17% decline month-on-month [42][46]. Industry Trend Outlook - The report predicts that the dual drivers of policy support and technological advancements will continue to enhance growth momentum in the automotive sector [3][53]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 50%, supported by ongoing subsidies and advancements in autonomous driving technology [4][55]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests an overweight position in the smart electric passenger vehicle segment, highlighting the potential for growth driven by policy support and technological advancements [4][55]. - The Hong Kong automotive ETF (520600.OF) is recommended for its concentrated exposure to leading new energy vehicle companies, which may benefit from performance recovery expectations [4][55].

Group 1: ETF Market Overview - The ETF market in China has shown significant growth in both scale and number, reaching a total market size of 42,236.60 billion yuan with 1,194 products as of July 15, 2025 [1][9][24] - Stock ETFs dominate the market, accounting for 72.45% of the total market size, with a scale of 30,602.16 billion yuan, while thematic ETFs lead in product quantity with 459 products [1][10][25] - The average management fee for ETFs is 0.28%, and the average custody fee is 0.07%, which are lower than those of open-end stock and bond funds [1][14][15] Group 2: Development Stages of the ETF Market - The development of the ETF market in China can be divided into three stages: initial development (2004-2008), continuous expansion (2009-2017), and rapid growth (2018-present) [2][22] - The market size surged from 18,423.26 billion yuan in 2023 to 35,613.43 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 93.31% increase, primarily driven by the central financial account's increased holdings in large-scale ETFs [2][27][31] Group 3: Comparison with International Markets - Compared to Japan and the United States, China's ETF market still has room for improvement, with Japan's central bank's long-term purchasing strategy serving as a potential model for China's central financial account [2][34][42] - The U.S. ETF market is the largest globally, with a total asset size of approximately 10.98 trillion USD and 3,913 products, showcasing a more mature market structure [42][44] Group 4: Innovation Directions in the ETF Market - The current innovation in China's ETF market includes the introduction of index-enhanced ETFs, margin trading ETFs, Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs, and technology innovation bond ETFs [3][47][56] - Future innovation directions may focus on incorporating ESG risk considerations in index compilation, expanding underlying assets to multi-asset ETFs, and increasing the coverage of T+0 trading mechanisms [3][58][62]

Group 1 - The report focuses on factor allocation research based on ETFs in the A-share market, providing effective strategies for investors to utilize ETFs for style allocation [2][4] - Style factors significantly influence the returns of A-share strategies, with notable style trends observed over the past decade, such as small-cap value and large-cap growth, leading to substantial excess returns when aligned with main style trends [2][10] - There are currently 107 factor strategy ETFs in China, with a total net asset value of approximately 127.06 billion, representing about 4.09% of the total net asset value of equity ETFs, but these products face challenges in style coverage and liquidity [2][14][17] Group 2 - The report proposes a stock-based ETF factor allocation scheme starting from holding styles, exemplified by the construction of a dividend low-volatility ETF combination that aligns closely with the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Total Return Index [2][26] - The use of ETF style scoring for factor allocation offers significant advantages, allowing for broader coverage of style factors and providing more liquid solutions when the scale of related factor strategy ETFs is small [2][36] - A multi-factor strategy is constructed based on the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on high-quality growth and high-margin safety combinations, with backtesting showing strong performance for both strategies [2][38][51] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of using a comprehensive ETF selection process to address the limitations of existing factor strategy ETFs, particularly in terms of style coverage and liquidity [2][18][36] - The methodology for constructing the dividend low-volatility ETF combination involves detailed indicator breakdowns and ETF product sorting based on style characteristics [2][26][30] - The performance analysis of the constructed multi-factor strategies indicates a strong correlation with benchmark indices, showcasing the effectiveness of the proposed ETF combinations [2][32][51]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from government bonds starting August 8, which may increase issuance pressure on government bonds[1] - The attractiveness of interest rate bonds is expected to decrease, potentially driving institutional funds towards risk assets[1] - Short-term interest rates may decline due to the increased value of existing bonds, while medium to long-term rates will depend on economic fundamentals and policy direction[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points[2] - The manufacturing PMI for July fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[2] - The weighted average interest rate for new commercial loans in Q2 was reported at 3.09%[2] Group 3: International Trade and Tariffs - The US has implemented a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products effective August 1, impacting market dynamics[2] - The US GDP annualized growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%[2] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are approximately 45%[2] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected tightening of liquidity and changes in monetary policy that could affect investment behavior[3]

Strategy Overview - The report focuses on constructing a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, utilizing quantitative analysis from previous strategy reports [2]. Strategy Update - For the week of August 4, 2025, the model recommends increasing allocations to sectors such as electricity, joint-stock banks, and liquor, while continuing to hold real estate and agriculture ETFs [2]. - New additions include Green Power ETF, Bank ETF, and Liquor ETF, with ongoing holdings in Real Estate ETF and Agriculture ETF [2]. - As of the last weekend, some ETFs and index trading timing signals provided daily or weekly risk alerts [2]. Performance Tracking - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the strategy recorded a cumulative net return of approximately -2.19%, with an excess return of about -0.53% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [2]. - Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative return of the strategy outside the sample period is approximately 4.34%, with an excess return of about -2.17% relative to the CSI 300 ETF [2].

证券分析师：张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn ETF周度市场行情跟踪 说明：本篇不涉及投资建议，仅针对市场数据整理 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn （20250721-20250725） 本周市场行情 | | | | | 境内员 = 指数 | | | | | | | 境外式具 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 本周涨跌幅% | 上周涨跌幅% | 5.0 | | | | 代码 | 简称 | 本周涨跌幅% | 上周涨跌幅% | | SH | 沪深300 | 1.69 | 1.09 | 4.0 | | | | HSI . HK | 恒生指数 | 2.27 | 2. 84 | | SH | 上证50 | 1.12 | 0. 28 | | | | | HSTECH. HK | 恒生科技 | 2. 51 | 5.53 | | SH | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing continuous growth, driven by the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) and the upcoming releases of GPT-5 and DeepSeek-R2 models. Key breakthroughs are expected in edge computing and agent applications, enhancing the performance of related ETFs [3][11] - The report recommends focusing on AI ETFs, highlighting their strong growth potential and favorable valuation relative to their growth prospects. The report suggests specific ETFs such as Huafu CSI Artificial Intelligence Industry ETF (515980) and E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence ETF (159819) [3][11] Summary by Sections Market Review - Recent performance shows that cloud computing ETFs and AI ETFs have led the sector, with notable increases: cloud computing ETF (517390) up 11.43%, AI ETF (515980) up 9.63%, while gaming ETFs have seen declines [11][23] - The market is experiencing a significant divergence in performance, with AI and cloud computing benefiting from recent events, while gaming and fintech sectors are under pressure due to profit-taking and market preference shifts [11][23] Industry Dynamics - In July, 134 games were approved for release, with the game "Kingshot" achieving significant revenue growth, indicating a robust gaming market [2][23] - The summer box office has surpassed 5.2 billion, with the film "Nanjing Photo Studio" achieving both critical and commercial success, reflecting a strong performance in the film industry [2][23] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of AI ETFs, citing the accelerating application deployment and technological advancements as key drivers for growth. The report lists several recommended ETFs for investment [3][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the A - share market and ETF market from July 21 to July 27, 2025. The A - share market showed an upward trend in indexes, with building materials, coal, and steel leading the gains. The overall ETF market had a net inflow of about 1.9 billion yuan, but stock - type ETFs had a net outflow, especially broad - based ETFs. Gold ETFs also had a net outflow, while 30 - year treasury bond ETFs had a net inflow [1][2][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overall Situation: Index Upward, Building Materials, Coal, and Steel Leading the Gains - China's ten - year treasury bond yield slightly increased to 1.73% last week, in a long - term downward trend in sync with the copper - gold ratio. The US ten - year treasury bond yield slightly decreased to 4.40%, and the correlation with the copper - gold ratio became unclear since the US last interest - rate hike cycle in 2022 [9]. - The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1817.6 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week. The margin trading balance reached about 19338 billion yuan on Friday, hitting a high for the year [1][9]. - Last week, 10 stock - type ETFs were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of about 4.22 billion shares [9]. - The stock - type ETFs had a net redemption inflow of about - 5.453 billion yuan [10]. - Indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rose. Among the Shenwan primary industries, building materials, coal, and steel had large increases, while the banking and communication industries had negative returns. The steel and building materials industries had over - speculation warnings [10]. 3.2 A - share Broad - based ETFs and Gold ETFs with Net Redemption Outflows 3.2.1 Net Redemption Outflow of CSI A500ETF, Net Redemption Inflow of 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF - The overall ETF market had a net redemption inflow of about 1.9 billion yuan. Bond - type ETFs had an inflow of about 9.2 billion yuan, cross - border ETFs had an inflow of about 10.3 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had an inflow of about - 5.5 billion yuan. The broad - based ETFs had an inflow of about - 16 billion yuan, the main direction of the net outflow of stock - type ETFs. The turnover rate of stock (industry) ETFs increased significantly compared with the previous week [24]. - Among industry - themed ETFs, the chip and brokerage industries had net redemption outflows. Gold ETFs had a net outflow, while 30 - year treasury bond ETFs had a net inflow [24]. 3.2.2 Net Outflow of Gold ETFs and Money - type ETFs Last Week - The redemption funds of ETFs flowed into bond - type ETFs and some Hong Kong - stock industry ETFs, while money - type ETFs and gold ETFs had net outflows [33]. 3.2.3 Overview of Newly - listed and To - be - listed ETFs - Last week, 8 ETF funds were listed for trading, with a total share of about 4.3 billion. There were 14 ETFs that had completed fundraising and were waiting to be listed, with a total share of about 5.6 billion, mainly stock (theme) ETFs [2][38].

宏观利率研究 证券研究报告 / 宏观利率研究 2025 年 07 月 28 日 股债"跷跷板"分流资金 关注重要会议及中美谈判 宏观利率周报（20250721-0725） 研报摘要 ⚫ 核心观点：7 月全球 PMI 不及预期，关税压制环境中下半年出口增量有限。 叠加限产趋势，预计制造业景气或依然偏弱。上半年经济增长基础稳固，完成全 年目标三季度压力不大，下一轮稳增长或在四季度出现，长周期看货币政策无需 过早收紧。与此同时，反内卷预期短期难以证伪，权益市场放量加速行情仍在演 化，股市 "跷跷板"效应将继续分流债市资金，阶段性压力仍在。上周，各大商品 交易所连发风险提示，周五商品期货全线下跌，或有助利率平稳运行。本周建议 关注重要会议以及中美谈判结果。 ⚫ 行情回顾：雅江水电站亮相，股市赚钱效应显现，上证行情一度突破 3600 点，"跷跷板"效应分流债市资金。叠加反内卷政策陆续推出、资金面偏紧，收 益率全线大幅调整，期限结构陡峭化。 ⚫ 市场要闻：（1）贸易摩擦。商务部就欧盟第 18 轮对俄制裁列单中国企业和 金融机构事答记者问。（2）国债发行落实。第三批国债支持以旧换新资金下达。 置换债已发行全年额度的 90% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy support for science - innovation bonds has led to significant growth in issuance and trading activity. The bonds have unique characteristics compared to overall credit bonds, and specific types of science - innovation bonds show investment value [2]. - It is recommended to focus on inter - bank science - innovation bonds (medium - term notes and general short - term financing) and target bonds excluding science - innovation bond ETF index component bonds [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Policy Support for Science - Innovation Bonds - **Issuance and Listing Review Rules**: In December 27, 2024, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges issued rules for the issuance and listing review of special - variety corporate bonds, including science - innovation bonds. Four types of issuers (science - innovation enterprises, science - innovation upgrade, science - innovation investment, and science - innovation incubation) can issue such bonds under certain conditions, with specific requirements for the proportion of funds invested in the science - innovation field and supporting mechanisms [7]. - **Support for Issuance and Construction of a Multi - tiered Bond Market**: On May 7, 2025, the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued an announcement to support the issuance of science - innovation bonds, aiming to enrich the product system, build a multi - tiered bond market, and improve supporting mechanisms. The issuance subject scope was expanded to financial institutions, technology - based enterprises, private equity investment institutions, and venture capital institutions [10]. 3.2 Overview of Outstanding Science - Innovation Bonds - **Distribution of Different Bond Types**: Medium - term notes and corporate bonds are the core issuance types of science - innovation bonds. Exchange - issued science - innovation bonds are more active than those issued in the inter - bank market. In terms of issuance quantity and bond balance, exchange - issued bonds account for 57.93% and 66.28% respectively, while inter - bank issued bonds account for 42.07% and 33.72% [14]. - **Remaining Maturity Characteristics**: The remaining maturity of outstanding science - innovation bonds is mainly short - to medium - term, concentrated below 5 years. In terms of bond quantity, those with a remaining maturity below 5 years account for 89.44%, and in terms of bond balance, they account for 88.80% [16]. - **Comparison of Basic Elements with Overall Credit Bonds**: Outstanding science - innovation bonds are concentrated in high - credit - rated bonds. The proportion of AAA - rated bonds is 77.45%, 30.68% higher than that of overall credit bonds. They have a longer issuance term and a lower coupon rate compared to overall credit bonds [17][19]. 3.3 Overview of the Primary Market for Science - Innovation Bonds - **Issuance Volume**: With strong policy support, the issuance volume of science - innovation bonds has increased significantly. In May 2025, the issuance volume increased by 120.51% year - on - year, and from May to July 18, 2025, the issuance volume reached 7668.48 billion yuan, accounting for 22.32% of the total issuance volume [25]. - **Rating Distribution**: Science - innovation bonds are concentrated in the AAA high - credit - rating category. The issuance volume and quantity of AAA - rated bonds account for 84.55% and 71.38% respectively, indicating high overall credit quality [29]. - **Industry Distribution**: Compared to overall credit bonds, the industry distribution of science - innovation bonds is more balanced. Although the issuance scale in the banking, non - banking, comprehensive, and building decoration industries is high, the issuance scale in industries such as coal, steel, and electronics is significantly higher than that of overall credit bonds. Science - innovation bonds have certain interest - rate advantages in most industries, with the lowest rate in the national defense and military industry at 0.89% [30][35]. - **Regional Distribution**: Science - innovation bonds in economically developed regions have a large issuance scale and a low issuance rate. Beijing has the largest issuance scale, accounting for 27.85% of the total, followed by Shanghai at 9.29% [36]. - **Issuance Industries after the New Policy**: With policy support, the issuance scale of science - innovation bonds in the financial industry has increased significantly. After the new policy, the issuance quantity of science - innovation bonds in the banking and non - banking financial industries accounted for 5.81% and 15.83% respectively [41]. 3.4 Overview of the Secondary Market for Science - Innovation Bonds - **Trading Volume**: After the new policy, the trading activity of science - innovation bonds has increased significantly. In May 2025, the trading volume was 196.097 billion yuan, a 71.01% month - on - month increase. After the issuance subject was expanded to financial institutions, the trading activity of bank - issued science - innovation bonds ranked first [45][49]. - **Monthly Average Volatility**: Before the new policy, the monthly average volatility of science - innovation bonds remained above 2% for six consecutive months, while after the new policy, it was below 2%, indicating a significant reduction [50]. - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rate of science - innovation bonds has been rising, increasing from 6.25% in April to 9.16% in June 2025, which has improved the liquidity and pricing efficiency of the secondary market [53]. - **Price Fluctuations**: After the new policy, the quantile curves of price fluctuations of science - innovation bonds have converged, and the trading volatility has narrowed [54]. - **Credit Spread Curve**: Among different types of science - innovation bonds, inter - bank medium - term notes and general short - term financing bonds have certain cost - effectiveness. Non - AAA science - innovation bond index component bonds have relative value [59][71]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - Recommend focusing on inter - bank science - innovation bonds (medium - term notes and general short - term financing) and target bonds excluding science - innovation bond ETF index component bonds [79].