Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and notes that the industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% [3][23] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, as well as the oil and gas extraction industry, have shown a downward trend in fixed asset investment completion year-on-year since 2025 [21][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of the newly implemented energy-saving review and carbon emission evaluation measures, which aim to prevent disorderly capacity expansion and "involution" competition in the industry [22] Market Performance Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index experienced a decline of 0.54% during the period from July 28 to August 8, 2025 [3][11] - The top-performing industry indices during this period included SSH Gold Stocks (4.88%) and Subdivided Nonferrous Metals (0.83%) [3][10] - The report notes significant capital inflows into the infrastructure engineering sector, while the rare metals and nonferrous metals sectors saw substantial capital outflows [11] Key Industry Dynamics - In the chemical sector, the report indicates that major raw material purchase price indices reached a new high of 51.5% in July, reflecting a 2.1 percentage point increase from June [23] - The coal sector is under scrutiny, with the National Energy Administration planning to conduct production inspections in key coal-producing provinces to ensure stable supply [3][28] - The report suggests monitoring the Chemical ETF (159870.SZ) and Coal ETF (515220.SH) for potential investment opportunities [3][12] Company Updates - Wanhua Chemical announced the resumption of production at its Fujian Industrial Park, which had been under maintenance since June 5, 2025 [25] - Salt Lake Co. disclosed plans for share buybacks to enhance investor confidence, with a recent increase in shareholding by its controlling shareholder [26] - Juhua Co. projected a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with an expected growth of 146% to 166% year-on-year [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The current overcapacity is mainly concentrated in the mid - and downstream sectors. In July, the rise in commodity futures prices did not significantly boost inflation, and the PPI remained at a low level. After the implementation of new US tariffs, the "rush to export" phenomenon subsided, putting pressure on external demand. Domestic demand took over from external demand, reversing the trend of the trade balance, and the trade surplus narrowed in July. The policy hedging in areas such as preschool education is still insufficient. Meanwhile, the "anti - involution" concept cannot be falsified in the short term, and the pricing of major asset classes is unlikely to return to the "deflation" narrative of the second quarter due to the total demand shock. If the yield decline is too large, consider taking profits gradually [1]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond slightly declined to 1.69%, and the interest rate structure became steeper. On August 8, the central bank announced a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, indicating a loosening of liquidity. Although the interest rate has reached a peak in the short term, the decline of long - term interest rates is not smooth due to the disturbances in the stock market and commodity prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market News - **Diplomatic Response**: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to questions about secondary oil tariffs. China conducts normal economic and energy cooperation with countries including Russia, which is legitimate [8]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank carried out a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on August 8, 2025, with a term of 3 months. China's gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces in July, marking the 9th consecutive month of increase [8]. - **Industrial and Financial Policies**: The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free preschool education, exempting the tuition fees of children in the first year of public kindergartens from the 2025 autumn semester. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will guide the reduction of about 1 million breeding sows. Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new - type industrialization. The National Development and Reform Commission will accelerate the approval of new - type policy - based financial instruments, and government bond issuance is expected to speed up, which is expected to drive the recovery of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [8][9]. - **Economic Data**: In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, up from a 0.1% decline in the previous month, and was flat year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. China's trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, down from $114.75 billion in the previous month [10]. - **Off - shore Market**: The RWA registration platform was officially launched in Hong Kong, and three Web3.0 standards were established [10]. Overseas Key Data and Events - **Interest Rate Expectations**: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman expects three interest rate cuts this year [11]. - **Tariff Policies**: The US may impose additional tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the US for 6 months [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a bifurcation driven by dual forces of policy and technology, with a focus on capturing the benefits of leading companies through the Hong Kong automotive ETF [1][4]. - The market shows a preference for battery-related ETFs over traditional automotive stocks, indicating a shift towards electric and smart vehicles [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive ETF showed mixed performance, with the new energy vehicle ETF rising by 3.17% and the traditional automotive ETF declining by 0.86% [2][11]. - The automotive sector's performance lagged behind the broader market, with a growth of only 1.16% compared to the 3.92% increase in the CSI 300 index [2][23]. Industry Dynamics - Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles increased by 9% and 17% year-on-year, respectively, for July, maintaining an upward trend for the year [3][39]. - The new energy vehicle market saw retail sales of 789,000 units in July, a 15% increase year-on-year, despite a 17% decline month-on-month [42][46]. Industry Trend Outlook - The report predicts that the dual drivers of policy support and technological advancements will continue to enhance growth momentum in the automotive sector [3][53]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 50%, supported by ongoing subsidies and advancements in autonomous driving technology [4][55]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests an overweight position in the smart electric passenger vehicle segment, highlighting the potential for growth driven by policy support and technological advancements [4][55]. - The Hong Kong automotive ETF (520600.OF) is recommended for its concentrated exposure to leading new energy vehicle companies, which may benefit from performance recovery expectations [4][55].

Group 1: ETF Market Overview - The ETF market in China has shown significant growth in both scale and number, reaching a total market size of 42,236.60 billion yuan with 1,194 products as of July 15, 2025 [1][9][24] - Stock ETFs dominate the market, accounting for 72.45% of the total market size, with a scale of 30,602.16 billion yuan, while thematic ETFs lead in product quantity with 459 products [1][10][25] - The average management fee for ETFs is 0.28%, and the average custody fee is 0.07%, which are lower than those of open-end stock and bond funds [1][14][15] Group 2: Development Stages of the ETF Market - The development of the ETF market in China can be divided into three stages: initial development (2004-2008), continuous expansion (2009-2017), and rapid growth (2018-present) [2][22] - The market size surged from 18,423.26 billion yuan in 2023 to 35,613.43 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 93.31% increase, primarily driven by the central financial account's increased holdings in large-scale ETFs [2][27][31] Group 3: Comparison with International Markets - Compared to Japan and the United States, China's ETF market still has room for improvement, with Japan's central bank's long-term purchasing strategy serving as a potential model for China's central financial account [2][34][42] - The U.S. ETF market is the largest globally, with a total asset size of approximately 10.98 trillion USD and 3,913 products, showcasing a more mature market structure [42][44] Group 4: Innovation Directions in the ETF Market - The current innovation in China's ETF market includes the introduction of index-enhanced ETFs, margin trading ETFs, Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs, and technology innovation bond ETFs [3][47][56] - Future innovation directions may focus on incorporating ESG risk considerations in index compilation, expanding underlying assets to multi-asset ETFs, and increasing the coverage of T+0 trading mechanisms [3][58][62]

Group 1 - The report focuses on factor allocation research based on ETFs in the A-share market, providing effective strategies for investors to utilize ETFs for style allocation [2][4] - Style factors significantly influence the returns of A-share strategies, with notable style trends observed over the past decade, such as small-cap value and large-cap growth, leading to substantial excess returns when aligned with main style trends [2][10] - There are currently 107 factor strategy ETFs in China, with a total net asset value of approximately 127.06 billion, representing about 4.09% of the total net asset value of equity ETFs, but these products face challenges in style coverage and liquidity [2][14][17] Group 2 - The report proposes a stock-based ETF factor allocation scheme starting from holding styles, exemplified by the construction of a dividend low-volatility ETF combination that aligns closely with the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Total Return Index [2][26] - The use of ETF style scoring for factor allocation offers significant advantages, allowing for broader coverage of style factors and providing more liquid solutions when the scale of related factor strategy ETFs is small [2][36] - A multi-factor strategy is constructed based on the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on high-quality growth and high-margin safety combinations, with backtesting showing strong performance for both strategies [2][38][51] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of using a comprehensive ETF selection process to address the limitations of existing factor strategy ETFs, particularly in terms of style coverage and liquidity [2][18][36] - The methodology for constructing the dividend low-volatility ETF combination involves detailed indicator breakdowns and ETF product sorting based on style characteristics [2][26][30] - The performance analysis of the constructed multi-factor strategies indicates a strong correlation with benchmark indices, showcasing the effectiveness of the proposed ETF combinations [2][32][51]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from government bonds starting August 8, which may increase issuance pressure on government bonds[1] - The attractiveness of interest rate bonds is expected to decrease, potentially driving institutional funds towards risk assets[1] - Short-term interest rates may decline due to the increased value of existing bonds, while medium to long-term rates will depend on economic fundamentals and policy direction[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points[2] - The manufacturing PMI for July fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[2] - The weighted average interest rate for new commercial loans in Q2 was reported at 3.09%[2] Group 3: International Trade and Tariffs - The US has implemented a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products effective August 1, impacting market dynamics[2] - The US GDP annualized growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%[2] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are approximately 45%[2] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected tightening of liquidity and changes in monetary policy that could affect investment behavior[3]

Strategy Overview - The report focuses on constructing a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, utilizing quantitative analysis from previous strategy reports [2]. Strategy Update - For the week of August 4, 2025, the model recommends increasing allocations to sectors such as electricity, joint-stock banks, and liquor, while continuing to hold real estate and agriculture ETFs [2]. - New additions include Green Power ETF, Bank ETF, and Liquor ETF, with ongoing holdings in Real Estate ETF and Agriculture ETF [2]. - As of the last weekend, some ETFs and index trading timing signals provided daily or weekly risk alerts [2]. Performance Tracking - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the strategy recorded a cumulative net return of approximately -2.19%, with an excess return of about -0.53% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [2]. - Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative return of the strategy outside the sample period is approximately 4.34%, with an excess return of about -2.17% relative to the CSI 300 ETF [2].

证券分析师：张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn ETF周度市场行情跟踪 说明：本篇不涉及投资建议，仅针对市场数据整理 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn （20250721-20250725） 本周市场行情 | | | | | 境内员 = 指数 | | | | | | | 境外式具 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 本周涨跌幅% | 上周涨跌幅% | 5.0 | | | | 代码 | 简称 | 本周涨跌幅% | 上周涨跌幅% | | SH | 沪深300 | 1.69 | 1.09 | 4.0 | | | | HSI . HK | 恒生指数 | 2.27 | 2. 84 | | SH | 上证50 | 1.12 | 0. 28 | | | | | HSTECH. HK | 恒生科技 | 2. 51 | 5.53 | | SH | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing continuous growth, driven by the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) and the upcoming releases of GPT-5 and DeepSeek-R2 models. Key breakthroughs are expected in edge computing and agent applications, enhancing the performance of related ETFs [3][11] - The report recommends focusing on AI ETFs, highlighting their strong growth potential and favorable valuation relative to their growth prospects. The report suggests specific ETFs such as Huafu CSI Artificial Intelligence Industry ETF (515980) and E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence ETF (159819) [3][11] Summary by Sections Market Review - Recent performance shows that cloud computing ETFs and AI ETFs have led the sector, with notable increases: cloud computing ETF (517390) up 11.43%, AI ETF (515980) up 9.63%, while gaming ETFs have seen declines [11][23] - The market is experiencing a significant divergence in performance, with AI and cloud computing benefiting from recent events, while gaming and fintech sectors are under pressure due to profit-taking and market preference shifts [11][23] Industry Dynamics - In July, 134 games were approved for release, with the game "Kingshot" achieving significant revenue growth, indicating a robust gaming market [2][23] - The summer box office has surpassed 5.2 billion, with the film "Nanjing Photo Studio" achieving both critical and commercial success, reflecting a strong performance in the film industry [2][23] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of AI ETFs, citing the accelerating application deployment and technological advancements as key drivers for growth. The report lists several recommended ETFs for investment [3][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the A - share market and ETF market from July 21 to July 27, 2025. The A - share market showed an upward trend in indexes, with building materials, coal, and steel leading the gains. The overall ETF market had a net inflow of about 1.9 billion yuan, but stock - type ETFs had a net outflow, especially broad - based ETFs. Gold ETFs also had a net outflow, while 30 - year treasury bond ETFs had a net inflow [1][2][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overall Situation: Index Upward, Building Materials, Coal, and Steel Leading the Gains - China's ten - year treasury bond yield slightly increased to 1.73% last week, in a long - term downward trend in sync with the copper - gold ratio. The US ten - year treasury bond yield slightly decreased to 4.40%, and the correlation with the copper - gold ratio became unclear since the US last interest - rate hike cycle in 2022 [9]. - The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1817.6 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week. The margin trading balance reached about 19338 billion yuan on Friday, hitting a high for the year [1][9]. - Last week, 10 stock - type ETFs were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of about 4.22 billion shares [9]. - The stock - type ETFs had a net redemption inflow of about - 5.453 billion yuan [10]. - Indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rose. Among the Shenwan primary industries, building materials, coal, and steel had large increases, while the banking and communication industries had negative returns. The steel and building materials industries had over - speculation warnings [10]. 3.2 A - share Broad - based ETFs and Gold ETFs with Net Redemption Outflows 3.2.1 Net Redemption Outflow of CSI A500ETF, Net Redemption Inflow of 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF - The overall ETF market had a net redemption inflow of about 1.9 billion yuan. Bond - type ETFs had an inflow of about 9.2 billion yuan, cross - border ETFs had an inflow of about 10.3 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had an inflow of about - 5.5 billion yuan. The broad - based ETFs had an inflow of about - 16 billion yuan, the main direction of the net outflow of stock - type ETFs. The turnover rate of stock (industry) ETFs increased significantly compared with the previous week [24]. - Among industry - themed ETFs, the chip and brokerage industries had net redemption outflows. Gold ETFs had a net outflow, while 30 - year treasury bond ETFs had a net inflow [24]. 3.2.2 Net Outflow of Gold ETFs and Money - type ETFs Last Week - The redemption funds of ETFs flowed into bond - type ETFs and some Hong Kong - stock industry ETFs, while money - type ETFs and gold ETFs had net outflows [33]. 3.2.3 Overview of Newly - listed and To - be - listed ETFs - Last week, 8 ETF funds were listed for trading, with a total share of about 4.3 billion. There were 14 ETFs that had completed fundraising and were waiting to be listed, with a total share of about 5.6 billion, mainly stock (theme) ETFs [2][38].