证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 关税进入拉锯阶段，关注政策后手应对 HWABAO SECURITIES 2025年4月3日 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 分析师： 刘 芳（执业证书编号：S0890524100002） ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 宏观主线梳理 宏观主线梳理 关税政策不确定性未来仍将高企 经济开门红，后续外部关税扰动上升，关注政策对冲强度 ——2025年4月资产配置报告 Ø 一季度经济开门红，二季度修复或有所放缓 Ø 关注后续政策发力强度 Ø 未来关税政策不确定性仍将高企 海外宏观 u 4月2日美国公布的对华关税政策超出市场预期，考虑到后续行业性关税可能持续加码，以及各国报复性关税政策将陆续推出，市 场风险偏好仍受到压制。 u 4月2日关税政策仅是阶段性工具，新一轮关税的不确定性仍然高企，后续仍存税率反复变化以及上修和实施范围扩大的风险。 u 美国关税政策中长期仍面临两大风险：1、特朗普政府可能高估了关税威胁作为施压工具的有效性，加剧国际经贸体系的对立。2、 未来不排除出现"加征-豁免-再调整"的政策震荡。这种高频度的关税政策调整可能使部分国家及行 ...

| 新股发行及今日交易提示 | 2025/4/3 | 星期四 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/3 | 内地市场权益提示 | 类别 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 权益日期 | 最新公告链接 | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600777&announcementId=1222992722&orgI | 600777 | ST新潮 | 要约申报期：2025年4月8日至2025年5月7日 | d=gssh0600777&announcementTime=2025 | -04-03 | 要约收购 | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=688739&announcementId=1222921245&orgI | 688739 | 成大生物 | 要约申报期：2025年3月5日至2025年4月3日 | d=gfbj0831550&announcementTi ...

New Stock Listings - 首航新能 (Stock Code: 301658) listed at an issue price of 11.80 on April 2, 2025[1] Tender Offers - 成大生物 (Stock Code: 688739) has a tender offer period from March 5, 2025, to April 3, 2025[1] Abnormal Fluctuations - 回盛生物 (Stock Code: 300871) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on March 28, 2025[1] - 中科海讯 (Stock Code: 300810) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on March 28, 2025[1] - 亿利达 (Stock Code: 002686) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on March 21, 2025[1] - 四环生物 (Stock Code: 000518) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on April 2, 2025[1] - 立新能源 (Stock Code: 001258) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on April 2, 2025[1] - 兰石重装 (Stock Code: 603169) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on April 2, 2025[1] - 跨境通 (Stock Code: 002640) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on April 2, 2025[1] - 中毅达 (Stock Code: 600610) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on April 2, 2025[1] - 哈空调 (Stock Code: 600202) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on April 2, 2025[1] - 楚环科技 (Stock Code: 001336) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on April 2, 2025[1]

| 新股发行及今日交易提示 | 2025/4/1 | 星期二 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/1 | 内地市场权益提示 | 类别 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 权益日期 | 最新公告链接 | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=688739&announcementId=1222921245&orgI | 要约收购 | 688739 | 成大生物 | 要约申报期：2025年3月5日至2025年4月3日 | d=gfbj0831550&announcementTime=2025 | -03-28 | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600610&announcementId=1222927113&orgI | 600610 | 中毅达 | d=gssh0600610&announcementTime=2025 | -03-28 | | | | http ...

2025 年 04 月 01 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 常青低波策略逆市获正收益，海外避险情绪或近尾声 公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟踪周报（2025.03.30） 分析师：程秉哲 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 分析师：黄浩 分析师登记编码：S0890524110001 电话：021-20321391 邮箱：huanghao@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 1 、《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 — 2025/3/31》2025-03-31 2、《常青低波策略占优，海外权益企稳 反弹—公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟 踪周报（2025.03.23）》2025-03-25 3 、《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 — 2025/3/21》2025-03-24 4、《ETF 策略指数跟踪周报—2025/3/》 2025-03-18 5、《市场关注消费提振新闻发布会，再 次点燃 A 股热情—公募基金量化遴选类 投资要点 本周 A 股市场在上周从高位回 ...

2025/4/1 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 2025 年 04 月 01 日 证券研究报告 | 财富生态周报 ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 2025/3/25》2025-03-25 2、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/3/18》2025-03-18 3、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/3/11》2025-03-11 4、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/3/4》2025-03-04 5、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/2/26》2025-02-26 投资要点 分析师：程秉哲 ◆网格交易策略概述：简单来说，"网格交易"本质上是一种高抛低吸的交易 策略。但与依赖判断长期走势的趋势交易不同，网格交易是一种基于价格波动 的策略，它不预测市场的具体走势，而是利用价格在一 ...

New Stock Issuance - New stock issuance includes 泰禾股份 at an issuance price of 10.27 and 信凯科技 at 12.80[1] - The total number of new stocks issued is not specified, but the focus is on the pricing of these stocks[1] Market Alerts - 成大生物 is undergoing a tender offer from March 5 to April 3, 2025[1] - 神开股份 has reported severe abnormal fluctuations in its stock price[1] - Multiple companies, including 中毅达 and 回盛生物, have recent announcements regarding their stock activities[1] Abnormal Fluctuations - A list of companies experiencing abnormal fluctuations includes *ST工智 and 河化股份, with announcements dated March 31, 2025[1] - The report highlights the need for investors to monitor these fluctuations closely due to potential impacts on stock performance[2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents several ETF strategy indices constructed with the help of ETFs, which can transform quantitative models or subjective views into practical investment strategies. The performance and positions of these indices are tracked on a weekly basis [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. ETF Strategy Index Tracking - **Overall Performance**: The table shows the performance of various ETF strategy indices last week. For example, the Huabao Research Size Rotation ETF Strategy Index had a last - week index return of 0.01%, a benchmark return of - 0.24%, and an excess return of 0.25%. The data is as of 2025/3/28, and the last - week return calculation period is from 2025/3/21 to 2025/3/28 [12]. 1.1. Huabao Research Size Rotation ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses multi - dimensional technical indicator factors and a machine - learning model to predict the return difference between the Shenwan Large - Cap Index and the Shenwan Small - Cap Index. The model outputs signals weekly to predict the strength of the indices in the next week and determines positions accordingly to obtain excess returns relative to the market [13]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/3/28, the excess return since 2024 was 16.29%, the excess return in the past month was - 0.07%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.25%. The position was 100% in the CSI 300 ETF [13][16]. 1.2. Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses price - volume indicators to time self - built Barra factors and maps timing signals to ETFs based on the exposure of ETFs to 9 major Barra factors to achieve returns exceeding the market. The selected ETFs cover mainstream broad - based index ETFs and some style and strategy ETFs [16]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/3/28, the excess return since 2024 was 14.75%, the excess return in the past month was 0.59%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.93%. The positions were 73.37% in the Dividend Low - Volatility ETF and 26.63% in the Value 100 ETF [16][21]. 1.3. Huabao Research Quantitative Windmill ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It starts from a multi - factor perspective, including the grasp of medium - and long - term fundamental dimensions, the tracking of short - term market trends, and the analysis of the behaviors of various market participants. It uses valuation and crowding signals to indicate industry risks and multi - dimensionally explores potential sectors to obtain excess returns relative to the market [20]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/3/28, the excess return since 2024 was - 0.11%, the excess return in the past month was - 1.33%, and the excess return in the past week was - 0.68%. The positions included the Bank ETF, Auto ETF, Media ETF, etc. [20][23]. 1.4. Huabao Research Quantitative Balance ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses a multi - factor system including economic fundamentals, liquidity, technical aspects, and investor behavior factors to build a quantitative timing system for trend analysis of the equity market. It also establishes a prediction model for the market's large - and small - cap styles to adjust the position distribution in the equity market and obtains excess returns through comprehensive timing and rotation [23]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/3/28, the excess return since 2024 was - 0.50%, the excess return in the past month was - 0.30%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.03%. The positions included the 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF, CSI 1000 ETF, etc. [23][27]. 1.5. Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It tracks and mines hot - spot index target products in a timely manner based on strategies such as market sentiment analysis, tracking of major industry events, investor sentiment and professional opinions, policy and regulatory changes, and historical deduction. It constructs an ETF portfolio that can capture market hot - spots in a timely manner to provide investors with references for short - term market trends and help them make more informed investment decisions [27]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/3/28, the excess return in the past month was 0.25%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.45%. The positions included the Real Estate ETF, Hong Kong Consumption ETF, etc. [27][30]. 1.6. Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses bond market liquidity indicators and price - volume indicators to screen effective timing factors and predicts bond yields through machine - learning methods. When the expected yield is below a certain threshold, it reduces the position of long - duration bonds in the bond investment portfolio to improve the long - term return and drawdown control ability of the portfolio [31]. - **Performance**: As of 2025/3/28, the excess return in the past month was 0.43%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.00%. The positions included the Short - Term Financing ETF, 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF, etc. [31][32].

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the bond market, driven by the central bank's unexpected MLF operations, but notes that a long-term trend requires further monetary policy easing or changes in economic fundamentals [1][12]. - In the stock market, the report suggests focusing on undervalued sectors such as steel, oil and petrochemicals, and coal, while waiting for further policy initiatives or clarity on U.S. tariff policies before making aggressive investments [2][12]. - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a notable shift of funds from high-valuation sectors to defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and food and beverage [10][20]. Group 2 - The report mentions that the U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest level in over two years, influenced by tariff impacts, while long-term inflation expectations have reached a 32-year high [9][10]. - It notes that the core PCE price index in the U.S. increased by 2.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since December 2024, which has raised concerns about stagflation [10][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming U.S. tariff policy announcement on April 2, as better-than-expected outcomes could lead to a short-term recovery in U.S. stocks [13].

| 新股发行及今日交易提示 | 2025/3/28 | 星期五 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/3/28 | 新股发行 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 发行价格 | | | | 732210 | 泰鸿万立 | 8.60 | 2025/3/28 | 新股上市 | | | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 发行价格 | 920029 | 开发科技 | 30.38 | | | 2025/3/28 | 内地市场权益提示 | 类别 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 权益日期 | 最新公告链接 | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=688739&announcementId=1222921245&orgI | 要约收购 | 688739 | 成大生物 | 要约申报期：2025年3月5日至2025年4月3日 | d=gfbj0831550&announcementTime=2025 | -03-28 | | http://www.cninfo.com.cn ...