证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 12 日 投资要点： 证券分析师 A 股财报画像的推演：杠铃策略延续 电力：区域火电公司业绩兑现度高 136 号文利好存量绿电资产 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 从 2024 年年报来看，A 股市场强预期、弱现实背景并未改变，从 2021 年下半年开始（也正 是沪深 300 阶段性见顶回落的时间点），A 股市场预期与现实的落差即开始加剧，最近两年 愈发突出。回顾历年所在时点对当年归母净利润的 wind 一致预期全 A 样本加总数据，年初高 开与逐季下修形成鲜明反差，而最终业绩又低于已然下修后的预期。 2024 年 A 股实际归母净利润达到年初预期的 79%，较 2023 年的 77%略有好转，但是仍处于 历史低位。换言之，对于个股而言，只要最终业绩达到年初预期的八成就算超预期了。我们 认为这是近年来红利资产持续上涨的根本原因，业绩稳定性权重胜过业绩向上弹性。 从金融学理论看红利行情的本质：对宏观经济本身无谓多空，而是对波动性的重新定价，从而 享受了折现率收窄的利好，而折现率下降不完全来自于无风险利率下降。红利 ...

ル ゲーリ 九 1 × 0 北交所定期报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 股份(+12.37%)、天宏锂电(+12.36%)涨跌幅居前。 印巴冲突背景下国防建设地位凸显,关注北交所军工&航空产业企业 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC: S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万泉 SAC: S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 北交所科技成长产业跟踪第二十五期(20250511) 投资要点: 2025 年我国国防支出为 17847 亿元（yoy+7.2%）。根据新华社消息，印度军方于 2025 年 5 月 7 日凌晨对巴基斯坦境内及巴控克什米尔地区多处目标发动军事打击,巴方随即反击并称击落了多架印军 战机。2024年我国国防支出是 16652.08 亿元,2025年我国国防支出为 17846.65 亿元,同比增长 7.2%, 预算增幅连续三年持平,2016年至 2025年,我国国防预算已经连续 10年实现个位数增长。本章节我们 对国产大飞机产业进行重点分析。机体制造作为飞机的基础架构部分,其价值量占比约 30%-35%;发动 机价值 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, China's defense expenditure is projected to be 1,784.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [4][8][10] - The Indian military conducted strikes against multiple targets in Pakistan, escalating regional tensions [4][8] - The domestic aircraft industry, particularly the C919, has a backlog of orders exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with a significant portion of its structure designed and manufactured by Chinese companies [4][28][27] Group 2 - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange's technology growth stocks increased by 5.69% from May 6 to May 9, 2025, with 91% of companies experiencing price increases [4][35][37] - The median P/E ratio for the new energy sector rose by 7.72% to 37.6X, indicating a positive trend in valuations [41][62][64] - The median P/E ratio for the electronic equipment sector increased from 55.1X to 56.0X, with a total market capitalization rising from 1,314.2 billion yuan to 1,398.0 billion yuan [41][43][44] Group 3 - The mechanical equipment sector's median P/E ratio rose from 55.8X to 58.7X, with total market capitalization increasing from 958.0 billion yuan to 1,022.8 billion yuan [48][49][50] - The information technology sector's median P/E ratio increased from 81.7X to 86.4X, with total market capitalization rising from 861.8 billion yuan to 890.0 billion yuan [53][54][56] - The automotive sector's median P/E ratio increased from 31.0X to 32.9X, with total market capitalization rising from 539.5 billion yuan to 557.2 billion yuan [58][61] Group 4 - The North Exchange's aerospace and military industry chain includes 15 companies, highlighting the growth potential in this sector amid geopolitical tensions [4][32][33] - The C919 aircraft is positioned to compete with Boeing's 737 series and Airbus's A320 series, indicating a strategic move towards enhancing domestic capabilities in the aviation market [4][27][28]

计算机 | 软件开发 美股|公司点评报告 证券研究报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 12 日 证券分析师 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 郑冰倩 SAC：S1350525040002 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 5 月 9 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（美元） | | | | | 9.30 | | 一年内最高/最低（美元） | | | | 17.4/4.92 | | | 总市值（亿美元） | | | | | 40 | | 总股本（亿股） | | | | 4.34 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 132.32% | | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | | | Rumble(RUM.O) 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——选举后用户留存逆势提升，加密生态布局打开商业空间 投资要点： | 盈利预测与估值（美元） | | | | | | | --- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by power shortages and asset impairments, but it is expected to see a significant increase in copper production in 2025 [5][7] - The company reported a revenue of 145.53 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.81 billion yuan, up 4.05% year-on-year [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.90 billion, 3.39 billion, and 4.08 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14X, 12X, and 10X [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 137.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.81% [6] - The company plans to produce 194,900 tons of copper concentrate in 2025, a 26% increase year-on-year, and 1,896,000 tons of cathode copper, a 7% increase [7] - The company's gross profit for copper products is expected to be 5.39 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year, while sulfuric acid gross profit is projected to increase by 205% to 1.14 billion yuan [7] Key Financial Metrics - The company's total market capitalization is 40.56 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 33.37 billion yuan [3] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 49.48%, and the net asset value per share is 2.71 yuan [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.23 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.97% [6][8]

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 12 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 生猪一季度业绩高增，持续推荐低估 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250506-20250509） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价短期维持震荡，4 月第三方产能震荡略增。 联系人 板块表现： 短期猪价震荡，关注二育入场情况。本周涌益数据最新猪价为 14.79 元/kg，出栏均 重为 129.71kg，15Kg 仔猪报价 647 元/头，175kg 标肥价差降至 0.38 元/kg。近期 猪价表现强于市场预期，但二育群体进场成本也随之上升，压制补栏情绪，短期猪 价或维持震荡；中长期看全年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势较为确定。产能方面，3 月统 计局全国能繁母猪存栏 ...

证券研究报告 建筑材料 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 12 日 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 朱芸 SAC：S1350524070001 zhuyun@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 房地产政策表述聚焦久期，顺周期依然为盾 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 内容目录 | 1. 板块跟踪 | | --- | | 1.1. 板块跟踪 | | 1.2. 行业动态 | | 2. 数据跟踪. | | 2.1. 水泥：仍然跌多涨少，下周或将延续跌势 . | | 2.2. 浮法玻璃：价格跌多涨少，交投不温不火. | | 2.3. 光伏玻璃：交投欠佳，库存缓增…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

Investment Insights - The report highlights the significant growth of the U.S. mutual fund market, which reached a total size of $28.5 trillion by the end of 2024, with equity funds accounting for 53%, fixed income funds for 42%, and mixed funds for 6% [7][8] - The development of U.S. fixed income funds has gone through three phases, influenced by interest rates and risk preferences of residents, with a notable trend towards indexation and ETF adoption [8][9] - The report suggests that China should follow the trends of indexation and ETF development in its bond fund market, focusing on innovative pension fund products and specialized investment strategies [9][10] Fixed Income Market Analysis - In the primary market, the issuance of credit bonds has decreased, with significant fluctuations in the issuance rates of various bond types, particularly AA and AA+ city investment bonds [12][14] - The secondary market saw an increase in credit bond trading volume, with varying yield movements across different ratings and maturities [12][14] - The report recommends a defensive strategy focusing on high-rated short-duration industrial bonds and emphasizes the importance of liquidity in bank capital bonds [14][18] Metal and New Materials Sector - The aluminum market is experiencing a rebound in alumina prices due to supply-side constraints, while copper prices are stabilizing amid fluctuating demand and inventory levels [19][20] - The report indicates that the lithium market is facing downward pressure on prices due to increased supply and concerns over demand, suggesting a focus on companies with growth potential in the lithium sector [22] Transportation Industry Overview - The logistics sector has shown robust growth, with record-breaking express delivery volumes during the recent holiday period, indicating a strong consumer market [24][25] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with increasing passenger demand and improved supply-demand dynamics [32][28] - The shipping industry is facing a tightening supply situation due to limited new orders for oil tankers, which may enhance market conditions in the coming years [34][29] North Exchange Market Insights - The North Exchange is set to welcome its fourth company, Tian Gong Co., which has seen significant interest from institutional investors, indicating a healthy market environment [35][36] - The company specializes in titanium and titanium alloy products, transitioning from rough processing to precision and deep processing, targeting emerging markets [36]

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 12 日 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 SAC：S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 慢性心衰大品种 JK07 潜力，继续重点推荐信立泰 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/5/6-25/5/9） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 本周医药市场表现分析：5 月 6 日至 5 月 9 日，医药指数上涨 1.01%，相对沪深 300 指数超 额收益为-1.00%。本周医药股价深度调整的和主题性个股表现较好，如长春高新、三友医疗、 怡和嘉业等。业绩进入真空期，主题性板块和股价深度调整的个股值得重点关注。建议关注： 1）创新药拥有确定性较高的产业趋势，近期盘整较为充分，继续重点推荐 A 股信立泰、科伦 药业、热景生物、一品红、科兴制药、恒瑞医药；港股三生制药、科伦博泰、康方生物、中 国生物制药；2）业绩落地、估值水平较低的个股，建议关注长春高新（创新药） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media internet industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The recent update from Apple allowing third-party payment options in the App Store is expected to enhance profit margins for app developers in the U.S. market, particularly benefiting companies with significant revenue from content apps [5]. - The integration of AI in gaming is highlighted as a potential growth area, with recommendations to focus on companies exploring AI+gameplay innovations [6]. - The upcoming release of key films and the performance of major cinema chains are areas of interest, especially with the summer box office approaching [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications and the potential for value reassessment in leading internet companies as they adapt to new technologies [8]. Summary by Sections Media Industry Performance - From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.29%. The media sector ranked 24th among all industries with a gain of 1.4% [14][17]. Key Developments - The App Store's new guidelines allow developers to direct users to third-party payment channels, breaking the "Apple Tax" [5]. - AI and entertainment integration is being pursued through strategic partnerships, indicating a trend towards deeper industry collaboration [22]. - The report notes the upcoming 520 online release event by NetEase Games, showcasing new game titles [23]. Company Announcements - AppLovin reported better-than-expected earnings for Q1, with revenue of $1.48 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.01 billion, indicating strong performance in the advertising sector [24]. AI Investment Trends - Six AI-related financing events occurred in the week of May 5 to May 9, with significant investments in companies focusing on AI models and intelligent platforms [28]. Gaming Sector Insights - The iOS gaming chart shows "Honor of Kings" maintaining its top position, with "Peacekeeper Elite" and "Endless Winter" following closely [30]. Film and Television Performance - The total box office for the week reached approximately 225.44 million yuan, with "Dumpling Queen" leading the charts [36]. - The drama "A Good Life" achieved a viewership of 214 million, securing a 15.33% market share [38]. Variety Show Performance - "Riding the Wind 2025" topped the variety show rankings with a 14.12% market share, showcasing strong competition among streaming platforms [40].