Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 604.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.9% from the current price of HKD 521.00 [1][39]. Core Insights - The first quarter performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue growing 13% year-on-year to RMB 180 billion, surpassing market expectations by 4% [2][6]. - The growth was driven by strong performance in domestic games, social networking, and marketing services, with notable contributions from AI investments and cost optimizations in payment and cloud services [6][7]. - The report highlights that the integration of AI across Tencent's business ecosystem is expected to enhance platform traffic and advertising revenue stability [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show a steady increase, with expected revenues of RMB 609 billion in 2023, RMB 660 billion in 2024, and RMB 723 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.6% [3][42]. - Net profit is projected to grow from RMB 157.7 billion in 2023 to RMB 250.2 billion in 2025, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 16.33 to RMB 27.23 over the same period [3][42]. - The report notes an improvement in gross margin, with a projected gross margin of 54.5% for Q2 2025, up from 53.5% in the previous quarter [37]. Segment Performance - Domestic game revenue is expected to continue its rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 24% in Q1 2025, supported by a low base from the previous year and the success of new game launches [6][7]. - Social networking revenue grew by 7% year-on-year, driven by increased music subscription services and mobile game in-app purchases [6][7]. - Marketing services revenue saw a significant boost, with video account revenue increasing by over 60% [6][7]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Capital expenditures reached RMB 27.5 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 91% year-on-year increase, primarily due to ongoing investments in AI and cloud service infrastructure [6][7]. - The report emphasizes that some of these investments have already started to yield revenue contributions, particularly in advertising optimization and content recommendation algorithms [6][7].

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The impact of U.S. drug price reforms is manageable but still requires observation, with a continued recommendation for innovation and valuation recovery logic [1] - The report highlights that the recent U.S. executive order aims to significantly reduce drug prices, potentially by 59% to 90%, and emphasizes the need for further details on implementation [7] - The optimization of China's centralized procurement policy is seen as more flexible, providing hospitals and companies with greater autonomy, which could benefit leading prescription drug companies [4][6] Summary by Sections Investment Ratings - The report provides a detailed valuation summary for various companies, with most rated as "Buy" and a few as "Neutral" or "Sell" [3][31] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 4.2% during the week, while the healthcare index increased by only 0.2%, indicating underperformance relative to the broader market [4][12] - Sub-sectors such as life sciences tools and services (+4.1%) and healthcare technology (+3.9%) performed well, while pharmaceuticals (-1.2%) and healthcare equipment and supplies (-2.6%) lagged [4][12] Company Updates - Several companies reported significant developments, such as: - **百济神州** achieved a quarterly profit with revenue of 8.048 billion RMB, a 50.2% increase year-on-year [9] - **康方生物** released promising Phase III clinical data for its drug, showing a 55% reduction in disease progression risk for advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients [9] - **信达生物** announced a 25% price reduction for its drug, confirming participation in national medical insurance negotiations [9] - **荣昌生物** received approval for a new indication for its HER2 ADC drug targeting metastatic breast cancer [9] Policy Changes - The report discusses key changes in China's centralized procurement policy, emphasizing operational feasibility and flexibility, which could accelerate industry consolidation and benefit quality leading prescription drug companies [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comprehensive valuation overview, indicating that the pharmaceutical sector has a TTM P/E ratio of 14.5, while other sectors like life sciences tools and services have lower ratios [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 604.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.9% from the current price of HKD 521.00 [1][39]. Core Insights - The first quarter performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue growing by 13% year-on-year to RMB 180 billion, surpassing market expectations by 4% [2][6]. - The growth was driven by strong performance in domestic games, social networks, and marketing services, with notable increases in revenue from video accounts and search services [6][7]. - The integration of AI into Tencent's business ecosystem is expected to enhance platform traffic and advertising revenue, contributing to sustained growth [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 609,015 million in 2023, RMB 660,257 million in 2024, and RMB 723,532 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.6% [3][42]. - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 157,688 million in 2023 to RMB 250,235 million in 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 44.1% in 2024 [3][42]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from RMB 16.33 in 2023 to RMB 27.23 in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3][42]. Segment Performance - Domestic game revenue grew by 24% year-on-year, supported by a low base from the previous year and the success of new game launches [6][7]. - Social network revenue increased by 7%, driven by growth in paid music subscriptions and mobile game in-app purchases [6][7]. - Marketing services revenue saw a 20% increase, primarily due to strong demand for advertising on video accounts and search services [6][7]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Capital expenditures reached RMB 27.5 billion, a 91% increase year-on-year, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and cloud service infrastructure [6][7]. - The report highlights that some of these investments have already started to yield revenue contributions, particularly in advertising optimization and content recommendation algorithms [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the real estate sector, including New World Development, China Resources Land, and Yuexiu Property, among others, with target prices indicating potential upside from current market prices [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a continued adjustment, with a significant decline in sales volume and prices, but government policies are increasingly supportive, aiming to stabilize the market [2][12]. - The report highlights that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are outperforming private companies in sales, with SOEs holding a market share of 73.1% in the top 50 developers [11][12]. - The report anticipates that as purchasing barriers are lowered and mortgage affordability improves, demand in the secondary market will continue to recover, while the primary real estate market remains stable [2][12]. Summary by Sections Stock Market Performance - The stock prices of mainland Chinese developers have generally outperformed the Chinese corporate index over the past month, with the industry’s net asset value discount expanding to 87.3% [3][6]. Developer Sales Performance - In April 2025, the total sales of the top 100 developers decreased by 10.4% month-on-month to 308.9 billion RMB, with a notable decline in sales area and average selling price [10][11]. - Among the 22 tracked major listed developers, sales fell by 19.5% month-on-month, primarily due to a 16.7% decrease in sales area and a 2.2% drop in average selling price [11][12]. Market Conditions - The new housing transaction volume in 10 cities fell by 24.99% month-on-month in April 2025, while supply increased by 20.8%, leading to an inventory digestion period of approximately 18.04 months [19][20]. - The report notes that the price index for new residential properties in 70 major cities showed a year-on-year decline of 5.0% in March 2025, indicating a slight improvement in the rate of decline compared to previous months [29][30]. Policy Review and Company Updates - The central government continues to implement policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to support troubled developers and promote high-quality housing supply [34][36]. - In April 2025, over 37 cities introduced real estate easing policies, focusing on increasing housing fund support and providing financial incentives for home purchases [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the covered companies in the banking sector, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - The growth rate of social financing (社融) has shown a month-on-month increase, with M2 growth significantly rising from a low base [1][4]. - In April 2025, new RMB loans decreased by 4,500 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the timing of credit issuance and debt replacement [1]. - The increase in social financing in April 2025 was mainly driven by government bond issuance, which reached 9,729 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10,666 million yuan [2][1]. - The M1 growth rate remained stable at 1.5%, while M2 growth rose to 8.0%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.0 percentage points [4][7]. - New RMB deposits decreased by 4,400 million yuan in April 2025, with a significant year-on-year reduction of 34,800 million yuan [2][1]. Summary by Sections New RMB Loans - In April 2025, new RMB loans totaled 2,800 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4,500 million yuan [2]. - Short-term loans and bill financing saw a decrease of 478 million yuan, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 1,165 million yuan [2]. Social Financing - New social financing in April 2025 amounted to 11,591 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12,249 million yuan [2]. - The increase in social financing was primarily attributed to government bond issuance, which accelerated during this period [1]. Deposits - New RMB deposits in April 2025 decreased by 4,400 million yuan, with a year-on-year reduction of 34,800 million yuan [2]. - Both household and corporate deposits saw significant year-on-year declines, with household deposits down by 13,900 million yuan and corporate deposits down by 13,297 million yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Legend Biotech (LEGN US) with a target price of $65.00, indicating a potential upside of 100.7% from the current price of $32.38 [1][8]. Core Insights - Carvykti is experiencing steady growth, with a 10% quarter-over-quarter increase in 1Q25 sales, driven by new production capacity, new indications, and market expansion. The report suggests that the current market concerns regarding competition and drug pricing reforms are overstated, supporting the "Buy" rating [2][4]. - The revenue forecasts for Legend Biotech have been adjusted downward for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting a 9.5%, 5.4%, and 1.8% decrease respectively. The projected revenues are $960 million, $1.4 billion, and $1.797 billion for those years [3][9]. Financial Projections - The updated financial model predicts the following for Legend Biotech: - 2025E Revenue: $960 million - 2026E Revenue: $1.4 billion - 2027E Revenue: $1.797 billion - 2025E Gross Profit: $596 million with a gross margin of 62.1% [3][9]. - The net loss for 1Q25 was reported at $101 million, but adjusted net loss excluding non-operating items was significantly reduced to $27 million compared to a net loss of $85 million in 1Q24 [4][9]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of -0.49%, with a 52-week high of $59.88 and a market capitalization of approximately $5.95 billion [2][9]. - The report highlights that the market is currently undervaluing the stock, as it trades at 1.7 times the peak revenue multiple, indicating significant investment value [4][5].

交银国际研究 | | | 三个月 | 年初至 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 今升跌 | | 布兰特 | 66.64 | -10.80 | -10.65% | | 期金 | 3,240.30 | 12.37 | 23.24 | | 期银 | 32.98 | -0.38 | 14.10 | | 期铜 | 9,534.00 | -2.83 | 9.51 | | 日圆 | 146.32 | 3.99 | 7.41 | | 英镑 | 1.33 | 5.45 | 6.25 | | 欧元 | 1.12 | 6.71 | 8.29 | | 基点变动 | | 三个月 六个月 | | | 基点变动 | | 三个月 六个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HIBOR | 4.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 美国10年债息 yield | 4.53 | 1.19 | 2.03 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | | | | 恒指技术走势 | | | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 23,640.65 | | 50 天 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tencent Music (TME US) with a target price of $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of $14.69 [1][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on high-quality membership growth and the release of operational and profit potential. It anticipates that the increase in Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) will have a greater impact than the growth in membership numbers. The report emphasizes the importance of member benefits, fan economy, and long audio content in driving SVIP growth [1][5]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased by 3% to 8.9 billion RMB, with a maintained SOTP target price of $17.00 (66 HKD) [1][16]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 31.177 billion RMB, reflecting a 1% increase from previous estimates. The online music segment is expected to generate 25.417 billion RMB, with subscription revenue anticipated to reach 17.729 billion RMB, a 1% increase [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 8.905 billion RMB, representing a 3% increase from prior estimates, with an adjusted net profit margin of 28.6% [2][10]. - The report projects a steady growth in ARPPU, expecting it to rise to 12.2 RMB by the end of 2025, driven by high-quality membership growth [5][10]. Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, Tencent Music reported revenues of 7.356 billion RMB, with online music revenue at 5.804 billion RMB, and a net profit of 4.388 billion RMB, which was 25% higher year-on-year [9][10]. - The number of paying music subscribers reached approximately 122.9 million, with a monthly ARPPU of 11.4 RMB, showing an 8% year-on-year increase [5][9]. Market Position - Tencent Music's market capitalization is approximately 20.062 billion USD, with a year-to-date stock price change of 29.43% [4][10]. - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned within the online music industry, with expectations for continued growth in subscription and advertising revenues [1][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME US) with a target price of $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of $14.69 [1][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on high-quality membership growth and the release of operational and profit potential, with an adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 increased by 3% to RMB 8.9 billion [1][5]. - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) target price is derived from music at $14, social at $1, and cash at $2, based on respective price-to-earnings ratios [1][5]. - The report anticipates steady growth in online music, driven by an increase in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) that is expected to outpace membership growth [1][5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 31.177 billion, reflecting a 1% increase from previous estimates [2]. - Online music revenue is expected to reach RMB 25.417 billion in 2025, with subscription revenue projected at RMB 17.729 billion, both showing slight increases [2]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 8.905 billion, a 3% increase from prior estimates [2]. Quarterly Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, Tencent Music reported revenues of RMB 7.356 billion, with music subscription revenue growing by 16.6% year-over-year [5][8]. - The number of paying music members reached approximately 122.9 million, with a monthly ARPPU of RMB 11.4, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase [5][8]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 2.226 billion, a 25% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding market expectations [5][8]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, total revenue is projected to be RMB 7.987 billion, with online music revenue expected to grow by 19% year-over-year [10]. - The report anticipates a continued focus on high-quality membership growth, with a forecasted increase in monthly ARPPU to RMB 11.6 [10]. - Non-subscription revenue is expected to grow by 25% year-over-year, driven by advertising and fan economy growth [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for JD US, with a target price adjusted from $62 to $50, indicating a potential upside of 34.2% from the current price of $37.25 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - JD US's retail business revenue and profit growth exceeded expectations in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 16% to RMB 301.1 billion. The growth was driven by a 17% increase in electronic products revenue and a 15% increase in daily necessities revenue [2][8]. - The company is experiencing healthy growth in active users, with a year-on-year increase of over 20%. The introduction of the food delivery service is still in a dynamic adjustment phase, but it is expected to partially offset the pressure from new business investments [2][7]. - The report highlights that the food delivery service has begun to enhance platform traffic, increasing user shopping frequency and cross-category consumption, which is anticipated to create long-term synergistic value within the platform ecosystem [2][8]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, JD US reported a gross profit margin increase of 0.6 percentage points, with adjusted net profit rising by 43% due to supply chain capabilities and economies of scale. The adjusted operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [2][8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been updated, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 1,313.16 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 13.3% [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 46.21 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.5% [6][9]. Stock Performance - JD US's stock has shown a year-to-date change of 7.44%, with a 52-week high of $47.08 and a low of $24.95 [5][8]. - The report indicates that the stock's performance is expected to align positively with the broader market trends, as indicated by the "Buy" rating [3][10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued double-digit growth in both revenue and profit for the retail business in Q2 2025 and throughout the year, supported by a healthy trend in user growth and engagement [2][8]. - The financial model updates suggest a stable outlook for JD US, with a focus on leveraging its supply chain and expanding its service offerings to enhance profitability [6][9].