Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Coal Energy [1] Core Views - The company's performance demonstrates resilience as increased volume and cost reductions offset the impact of price declines [7] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 189.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, and a net profit of 19.32 billion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year [4][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.92 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for 2024 [4] Financial Summary - The total coal sales volume in 2024 was 28.483 million tons, a slight decrease of 11,000 tons year-on-year, with total revenue from coal business at 160.712 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year [7] - The company's self-produced coal sales volume increased by 2.5% and 2.8% year-on-year, with unit sales price at 562 yuan/ton, down 6.6% [7] - The coal chemical business revenue was 20.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, with a gross margin of 15.2% [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 184.696 billion yuan, 189.190 billion yuan, and 194.618 billion yuan respectively, with expected net profits of 18.514 billion yuan, 19.616 billion yuan, and 20.224 billion yuan [6][9] - The report anticipates a continued decline in coal prices, with a projected PE ratio of 7.5 for 2025, 7.0 for 2026, and 6.8 for 2027 [8][9] Dividend Policy - The overall cash dividend rate increased from 30% in 2023 to 40.65% in 2024, with projected dividend yields of 5.7% for A shares and 7.7% for H shares based on the closing price on March 24, 2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a current stock price of 24.75 CNY [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 91.03 billion CNY, down 35.5% year-on-year, and net profit at 7.70 billion CNY, down 26.2% year-on-year. A cash dividend of 0.71 CNY per share is proposed [3][4]. - The fourth quarter shows signs of profit improvement, with a notable increase in gross margin to 28.1%, up 15.7 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a net profit of 2.50 billion CNY [6][9]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout of at least 50% of net profit for the next three years, with a total cash dividend and share buyback amounting to 50.78% of net profit for 2024 [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 9.31 billion CNY and 10.34 billion CNY respectively, while the 2027 forecast is set at 11.10 billion CNY [9][10]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 24.7% by 2027, with net profit margins also expected to rise [11][12]. - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 is planned at 15.62 billion CNY, slightly higher than the previous year, focusing on expanding aggregate and ready-mixed concrete production capacity [6][7]. Industry Outlook - The cement industry is expected to recover gradually, with price increases anticipated in March 2025, driven by supply-side reforms and production adjustments among leading companies [6][9]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the cement industry, with strong cost control and attractive valuation metrics, despite the downward adjustment in profit forecasts [9][10].

观 报 y安证券 海外宏观 2025年3月25日 宏观深度报告 估算关税对美国通胀的影响: 三个框架 证券分析师 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG934@pingan.com.cr 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAl146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点: 观 深度 . . . . . . . . 分别拉动 CPI、PCE 通胀率 1.2、1.3 个百分点。 葡萄 的抬升在 0.9-1.2 个百分点,"行业关税"影响 0.5-0.8 个百分点,"地区+行 业"关税影响 1.0-1.4 个百分点。最后,可以初步思考通胀制约下,各类关税 政策的落地难度,美国对华加征 20%关税制约较小,对加拿大、墨西哥加征 25%关税制约上升,追加欧盟乃至全球关税的制约更大;汽车关税的制约较 大，药品、钢铝、木纸、芯片等关税的制约较小。 ■ 风险提示:对于关税向美国通胀传导路径的理解不到位;美国进口商品类别 与 CPI、PP ...

策略配置 2025 年 3 月 25 日 策略深度报告 历史视角看 A 股传统消费板块的行情特征 证券分析师 | 魏伟 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060513060001 | | | BOT313 | | | WEIWEI170@pingan.com.cn | | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060516070001 | | | CHENXIAO397@pingan.com.cn | | 张亚婕 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060517110001 | | | ZHANGYAJIE976@pingan.com.cn | | 郝思婧 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060521070001 | 研究助理 靳旭媛 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124070018 JINXUYUAN745@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 策 略 报 告 策 略 深 度 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 HAOSIJING374@pingan.com.cn 长期视角看，传统消费行情的启动往往源于大规模经济刺激或地产周期回 升提振需求预期，以及科技创新与消 ...

2025 年 3 月 25 日 2025 年 1-2 月财政数据点评 中央财政领衔发力 证券分析师 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 事项： 2025 年 1-2 月，公共财政收入累计同比-1.6%，公共财政支出同比 3.4%，全国 政府性基金收入同比-10.7%，政府性基金支出同比 1.2%。 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 从 1-2 月财政数据来看，财政收入增长尽管受到春节错位等因素扰动，但 总体上仍受制于名义经济增长，土地收入继续减少产生持续拖累。财政支 出的亮点在于中央政府支出、以及民生领域支出有力增长。年初以来政府 债券发行以置换债和一般国债为主，地方项目专项债和超长期特别国债有 较大的提速空间，预计年内财政发力的连续性有望得到保障。随着外贸领 域冲击不确定性抬升，财政预计将提供较为有力的对冲，而货 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1][12][16] Core Views - BYD achieved a significant revenue increase in 2024, with total revenue reaching 777.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 29.02%, and a net profit of 40.25 billion yuan, up 34.00% year-on-year [5][11] - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 54.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [11][12] - New technology platforms launched in 2025, such as the "Tianshen Eye" intelligent driving system and the "Super e" platform, are expected to support sales growth [12][11] Financial Summary - In 2024, BYD's total sales volume reached 4.272 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, with overseas sales of passenger cars growing by 71.9% [11] - The company's revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 959.58 billion yuan, 1,126.16 billion yuan, and 1,266.28 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 51.09 billion yuan, 64.06 billion yuan, and 73.87 billion yuan [7][15] - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 19.4%, with a net margin of 5.2% [7][15] Sales and Production Insights - BYD's high-end brand Tengshi saw a slight decline in sales, with 126,000 units sold in 2024, down 1.4% year-on-year [12] - The company launched the Tengshi N9 SUV in March 2025, targeting competition with other high-end brands [12] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the new technology platforms and ongoing globalization strategies will further enhance BYD's profitability and market position [12][11] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 51.1 billion yuan and 64.1 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 73.9 billion yuan [12][15]

2025 年 3 月 25 日 2025 年 1-2 月财政数据点评 中央财政领衔发力 证券分析师 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 事项： 2025 年 1-2 月，公共财政收入累计同比-1.6%，公共财政支出同比 3.4%，全国 政府性基金收入同比-10.7%，政府性基金支出同比 1.2%。 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 从 1-2 月财政数据来看，财政收入增长尽管受到春节错位等因素扰动，但 总体上仍受制于名义经济增长，土地收入继续减少产生持续拖累。财政支 出的亮点在于中央政府支出、以及民生领域支出有力增长。年初以来政府 债券发行以置换债和一般国债为主，地方项目专项债和超长期特别国债有 较大的提速空间，预计年内财政发力的连续性有望得到保障。随着外贸领 域冲击不确定性抬升，财政预计将提供较为有力的对冲，而货币政策的加 力配合有待落地。 公共财政收入增长放缓。其中， 税收收入对公共 ...

非银行金融 2025 年 03 月 25 日 行业点评 资负双驱，太平 2024 业绩亮眼 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 相关研究报告 中国太平发布 2024 年业绩，全年归母净利润 84.3 亿港元（YoY+36.2%），董 事会建议派发末期股息每股 0.35 港元。 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 报 告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 行 【平安证券】行业动态跟踪报告-非银行金融-险资 投资黄金试点开启，优化资产配置、分散投资风险- 强于大市 20250211 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-资负双驱，友 邦 2024 业绩增长强劲-强于大市 20250314 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-24H2 公募基金 保有量点评：股指型与债基表现亮眼，券商及第三 方市占率提升-强于大市 20250318 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-投资趋势性回 暖，众安 2024 承保盈利能力承压-强于大市 20250320 证券分析师 | 王维逸 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S10605 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - BYD achieved a revenue of 777.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.02%, with a net profit of 40.25 billion yuan, up 34.00% year-on-year [4] - The company maintains high R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 54.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [7] - The company is focusing on high-end vehicle development, with the Tengshi brand as a key area for growth, despite facing challenges in the high-end market [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 959.58 billion yuan and 1,126.16 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 23.5% and 17.4% [6] - Net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 51.09 billion yuan and 64.06 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.9% and 25.4% [6] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 19.4%, with a net margin of 5.2% [6] Sales Performance - BYD's total vehicle sales reached 4.272 million units in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 41.3% [7] - The company reported a quarterly sales volume of 1.52 million units in Q4 2024, with a revenue of 274.9 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.7% [7] R&D and Technological Advancements - BYD is set to launch new technologies in 2025, including the "Tianshen Eye" intelligent driving system and the "Super e" platform, which are expected to enhance product competitiveness [8] - The company is focusing on maintaining a strong presence in the economy car market while also pushing for advancements in high-end vehicle technology [8]

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The proposed tariffs include regional tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada, and 20% on China, affecting a total of $468.9 billion, equivalent to a 14.3% increase on all goods[3] - The basic framework estimates that these tariffs could raise the US CPI and PCE inflation rates by 2.7 and 2.9 percentage points, respectively[3] - The advanced framework predicts a CPI inflation increase of 1.24 percentage points from regional tariffs, with direct contributions from consumer goods and indirect contributions from intermediate goods[3] Group 2: Dynamic Equilibrium Model - The dynamic equilibrium model estimates a lower inflation impact of 0.49 percentage points for the 25% tariffs on Mexico and 10% on China, which is less than the advanced framework's estimate of 0.78 percentage points[3] - If trade partners retaliate, the inflation impact could double compared to scenarios without retaliation[3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Tariff Effects - Tariffs on five specific categories (automobiles, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and wood products) are expected to raise CPI and PCE inflation rates by 1.2 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively[3] - The effective tariff rate for these five categories is estimated at 6.3%, impacting 25.4% of total imports[20] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include misunderstandings of the tariff transmission path to US inflation and potential errors in mapping imported goods to CPI and PPI categories[3] - The uncertainty surrounding the implementation of Trump's tariff policies poses additional risks to inflation estimates[3]