Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price for both the Hong Kong and A-share listings to HKD 27.0 and RMB 39.0 respectively [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.342 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9%, aligning closely with previous profit forecasts [1]. - The overall new order growth for the first half of 2025 continued at a rate of over 10% year-on-year, with the company maintaining its full-year revenue growth guidance of 10%-15% [4]. - The top 20 pharmaceutical companies showed strong revenue growth of 48% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with expectations for continued growth in the second half [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 406 million, up 15.6% year-on-year and 16.3% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below expectations due to higher-than-expected losses from non-operating items [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 33.7%, remaining stable year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while the adjusted net profit margin was 11.7%, showing a slight increase [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Laboratory services revenue grew by 15.2% year-on-year and 9.6% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong growth in biological science services [3]. - CMC services revenue increased by 17.4% year-on-year and 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to growth from top 20 pharmaceutical clients [3]. - Clinical research services revenue rose by 8.9% year-on-year and 10.0% quarter-on-quarter, although margins declined due to competitive pricing in the domestic market [3]. Market Outlook - The company expects continued revenue growth in the second half of 2025, although year-on-year growth may moderate due to a high base in the second half of 2024 [4]. - The report highlights that laboratory services and CMC will remain the main drivers of revenue growth, with profit margins expected to improve in the latter half of the year [4].

浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 月度美国宏观洞察：关税大致尘 埃落定，9 月剑指重启降息？ 特朗普关税政策更新——"新关税框架"已浮现，仍需关注行业关税和 中美谈判。虽然印度、瑞士、加拿大和墨西哥尚未与美国达成协议，但 是随着美国接连和日本和欧盟两大贸易伙伴达成协议，以及新关税税率 的公布，关税政策的不确定性显著下降。然而，我们并不认为关税风险 已经完全化解。接下来行业关税和中美贸易谈判将会是美国关税政策不 确定性的重点所在：首先，自特朗普今年上任以来，美国商务部启动的 "232 调查"数量显著增加。短期来说，芯片和药品的调查结果和潜在 关税加征的影响不容小觑。中期来看，我们不能排除有更多行业被卷入 "232 调查"的可能性，这将继续牵动市场对关税问题的担忧，尽管整 体风险或已显著小于此前对"对等关税"全部实施的担忧。其次，中美 关税谈判或仍存在变数。中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明的公布过程 较为曲折。 美国经济数据回顾——7 月通胀略微回升但符合预期；实体经济数据喜 忧参半。美国核心 CPI 通胀率 7 月微升。关税对商品价格的影响正在逐 渐显露，不过相对 6 月数据并未显著增强。7 月数据最为惹眼的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 525, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HKD 456 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company's 1H25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of RMB 950 million and a narrowed net loss of RMB 145 million, which is a 146.8% year-over-year improvement [4]. - The sales of SKB264 reached RMB 302 million in the first half of the year, and the company maintains its first-year sales guidance of RMB 800-1,000 million [4]. - The company has successfully commercialized SKB264 in two indications and has a sales team of over 350 people, with sales established in over 1,000 hospitals across 29 provinces [4]. - The report highlights the upcoming ESMO conference where important data for SKB264 will be presented, which could further boost market confidence [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1H25, product revenue was RMB 310 million, with licensing revenue at RMB 630 million, slightly better than consensus estimates [4]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents reached RMB 3.1 billion as of June 30, 2025, significantly up from RMB 1.34 billion at the end of 2024 [4]. - The report projects revenue growth with total revenue expected to reach RMB 2.286 billion in 2025, reflecting an 18.3% year-over-year increase [6]. Sales and Product Development - SKB264 has received preliminary approval for basic medical insurance and is expected to enter the insurance negotiations in the second half of the year [4]. - The company anticipates further approvals for additional indications of SKB264 in 2H25, which could enhance its market position [4]. - Other approved products, A167 and A140, are expected to contribute limited sales this year but may see significant growth once included in the insurance directory [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the 2025E net loss forecast to RMB 260 million and projects a net profit of RMB 220 million in 2026 [4]. - The target price of HKD 525 is derived from a DCF valuation model with a WACC of 8.7% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (291.HK) with a target price of HKD 34.3, indicating a potential upside of 21.3% from the current price of HKD 28.3 [1][3]. Core Insights - China Resources Beer reported a 23% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 1H25, reaching RMB 5.79 billion. The core operating profit, adjusted for one-time items, grew by 11.3% to RMB 7.1 billion, surpassing market expectations due to a significant reduction in unit costs and improved gross margins [1][5]. - The company is one of the few in the beer industry that achieved positive growth in average selling prices during a weak consumption environment, with a 0.4% increase in 1H25 [1][5]. - The new management's clear business development plans and positive outlook are expected to enhance market confidence in the company's future performance, potentially leading to better stock performance compared to peers [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Sales Volume and Pricing**: In 1H25, beer sales volume increased by 2.2%, outperforming major competitors like Budweiser APAC, which saw an 8.2% decline. The average selling price rose by 0.4% due to a shift towards higher-end products, with premium and above products seeing over 10% growth [5][10]. - **Cost Management**: The unit cost decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 2.5 percentage point expansion in gross margin. The company's "Three Precision" strategy led to an 11% reduction in overall sales expenses [5][10]. - **White Spirit Business**: Despite a 34% drop in revenue from the white spirit segment due to regulatory challenges, the impact on overall performance is limited as this segment contributes a small portion to total revenue [5][10]. Financial Projections - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 39.13 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 6.09 billion, reflecting a 28.5% increase [7][10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 14.0 for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 19.1% [7][10]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned to capture market share from competitors in the high-end segment, with significant growth opportunities in regions where its premium products are currently underrepresented [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 146 / USD 38, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price [3][5][24]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 reached RMB 356.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, surpassing market expectations by 6.5%. This growth was primarily driven by strong performance in the electronics category, benefiting from national trade-in policies [1][2]. - Service revenue grew by 29.1%, with advertising and logistics revenues increasing by 21.7% and 34.3%, respectively, largely due to the rapid growth of the food delivery business [1][2]. - Despite the strong revenue growth, adjusted net profit fell by 50% year-on-year to RMB 7.39 billion, attributed to a significant increase in marketing expenses, which rose by 128% to RMB 27 billion [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was RMB 356.7 billion, up 22.4% year-on-year, with product revenue increasing by 20.7% and service revenue by 29.1% [1][2]. - The core category of electronics saw a 23.4% increase, driven by trade-in policies, while daily necessities grew by 16.4% [1]. Profitability Analysis - Gross margin for Q2 was 15.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. However, adjusted net profit dropped by 50% to RMB 7.39 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 2.1% compared to 5.0% in the previous year [2][3]. - The increase in sales expenses, particularly due to food delivery subsidies, led to a sales expense ratio increase from 4.1% to 7.6% [2]. Financial Forecasts - The report slightly raises the FY25E revenue forecast by 3.3%, projecting revenues of RMB 1,324.5 billion for FY25E [3][4]. - Adjusted net profit for FY25E is forecasted at RMB 25.63 billion, with a target P/E ratio of 15.5x [4][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 83.0, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 68.15 [2][4]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's sales and net profit guidance for the year exceed expectations, with a target of 580,000 to 650,000 vehicles for 2025. The company anticipates significant growth in both domestic and overseas markets, supported by new model launches and partnerships [8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve, with a forecasted annual gross margin of 14%-15% for the year, driven by increased sales volume and better product mix [8]. - The valuation methodology used is a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6x for 2025 sales, leading to the target price of HKD 83.0 [8]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For Q2 2025, Leap Motor reported revenue of RMB 14.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 166% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42%. The gross margin was 13.6%, up 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 163 million in Q2 2025, marking a return to profitability after a loss in the previous quarter [12]. - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show significant growth, with expected revenues of RMB 16.75 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 108.44 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][9]. Valuation and Market Position - The current market capitalization of Leap Motor is approximately HKD 91.11 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 472.2 million over the past three months [4]. - The report highlights that Leap Motor's current price-to-sales ratio is 1.1x, suggesting potential for revaluation as the company continues to grow [8]. - The financial forecasts indicate a steady improvement in profitability, with net losses expected to turn into profits by 2025, projecting a net profit of RMB 634 million [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 9.1, indicating a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HKD 7.91 [5][6]. Core Insights - In 1H25, the adjusted net profit significantly exceeded expectations, primarily benefiting from a doubling of dividend income from Sinovac. The total revenue for 1H25 was approximately RMB 17.57 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.3% [2][3]. - The company reiterated its guidance for double-digit revenue and adjusted net profit growth for the full year, with the oncology segment showing the fastest growth rate among all segments at 24.9% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 1H25, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 17.57 billion, with adjusted net profit reaching RMB 3.09 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 101.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 60.7%. The profit margin improved, with gross margin at 82.5% and adjusted net profit margin at 17.6% [2][3]. - The revenue from innovative products accounted for 44.4% of total revenue, with expectations to increase to 50% by the end of the year. The innovative product revenue reached RMB 7.8 billion, growing 27.2% year-on-year [3][4]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is expected to finalize its first overseas licensing deal soon, with several research pipelines anticipated to yield data releases shortly. Key products include TQC3721 and TQB2102, among others, which are expected to show promising results in upcoming clinical trials [4][5]. - The management has indicated that the innovative drugs are projected to achieve over 30% revenue growth, supported by new product launches in 2023-2024 [3][4]. Valuation and Forecast - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to RMB 5.3 billion, RMB 5.8 billion, and RMB 6.5 billion, respectively, due to the inclusion of sustainable BD income and slight adjustments in innovative drug revenue growth [5][6]. - The DCF valuation model, with a WACC of 8.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, supports the new target price of HKD 9.1 [5][6].

Economic Performance - In July, China's retail sales growth declined to 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June and below the market expectation of 4.6%[2] - Fixed asset investment growth fell significantly by 1.2 percentage points to 1.6%, much lower than the expected 2.7%[3] - Industrial production growth decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.7%, also below the market expectation of 6.0%[5] Sector-Specific Insights - Real estate development investment fell by 12.0% year-on-year in July, worsening from a decline of 11.2% in June[3] - Retail sales of automobiles dropped by 1.5% in July, contrasting with a growth of 4.6% in June[2] - The manufacturing investment growth rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%[7] Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to introduce additional fiscal support of 0.5-1 trillion yuan by the end of September to bolster economic recovery[1] - Recent policies include a nationwide childcare subsidy starting in 2025, which is projected to directly aid consumption[10] - The central bank may implement a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10-20 basis point interest rate cut by the end of September[14]

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. rose slightly in July to 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from June, while the overall CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Month-on-month, the core CPI increased from 0.23% in June to 0.32% in July, aligning with market expectations[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month growth rate decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.20% in July[1] Labor Market Insights - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 104,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% in June to 4.248% in July[1] - Average hourly wage growth showed an increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, despite the overall labor market data weakening[1] Price Trends - Core goods prices saw a slight month-on-month increase to 0.21% in July, with notable declines in clothing and furniture prices[2] - Transportation goods inflation turned positive in July at 0.22%, reversing a decline of -0.38% in June[2] - Super core service prices rose by 0.19 percentage points to 0.55%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel[2] Tariff Impact - Current tariff policies are estimated to raise the U.S. inflation rate by 0.8% to 1.6%[5] - The average tariff rate is projected to be around 20%, higher than the previous 17% during the 90-day suspension period[5] - The new tariff framework categorizes countries into three groups, affecting their respective tariff rates significantly[4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts starting in September, with two 25 basis point cuts anticipated this year[6] - The July inflation data and the downward revision of employment figures from May and June provide sufficient rationale for potential rate cuts[6] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium may offer further insights into the Fed's future monetary policy direction[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 15.6, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of HKD 13.06 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to sustain its growth momentum in the second half of 2025, driven by significant growth in its IoT camera module business, propelled by consumer drone clients, and expansion in mobile and automotive camera segments [10][30]. - The company has revised its revenue forecasts upward for 2025, anticipating a 60% year-on-year increase in non-mobile IoT and automotive module sales, and a 30% increase in fingerprint recognition module sales [10][30]. - The financial performance for the first half of 2025 shows a strong revenue growth of 15% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 168% compared to the same period last year [14][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 12,531 million in 2023 to RMB 21,683 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% [2][11]. - The net profit is expected to rise significantly from RMB 82 million in 2023 to RMB 1,510 million in 2026, reflecting a substantial increase in profitability [2][11]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 4.1% in 2023 to 7.8% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2][11]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.0x for mobile camera modules, 27.0x for other camera modules, and 22.0x for fingerprint recognition modules, leading to a target price of HKD 15.6 [10][19]. - The current P/E ratio of the company is noted to be 20.5x, which is considered attractive for potential investors [10].