- The report defines a market timing system using the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) of the Wind All A Index to distinguish the overall market environment[2][8][13] - The distance between the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average has narrowed from -2.80% to -1.33%, indicating the market is in a volatile state[2][8][13] - The industry allocation model recommends sectors such as Hang Seng Medical, Hong Kong automotive, and new consumption industries from a mid-term perspective[2][3][9] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on information innovation and communication[2][3][9] - The Wind All A Index's overall PE is around the 60th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is around the 10th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[3][9] - The position management model suggests an absolute return product with Wind All A as the main stock allocation should have a 50% position[3][9] - The market is expected to continue to decline in trading volume, with a potential rebound when the volume shrinks to around 900 billion[2][3][9] Model Backtest Results - The distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages is -1.33%[2][8][13] - The Wind All A Index's PE is at the 60th percentile[3][9] - The Wind All A Index's PB is at the 10th percentile[3][9] - The recommended position for absolute return products is 50%[3][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price yet to be specified [3][11]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's release of its first self-developed mobile SoC, "Xuanjie O1," marks a significant milestone, positioning the company among the top global mobile hardware manufacturers [1]. - The self-developed chip is expected to enhance Xiaomi's competitiveness in the high-end smartphone market, which remains a critical area for growth [2]. - The synergy between Xiaomi's mobile, OS, and chip development is anticipated to drive innovation and improve user experience across its product lines [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi has invested in chip development since 2014, culminating in the launch of its first SoC in May 2025, making it one of the two domestic manufacturers with self-developed chip capabilities [1]. Market Positioning - The self-developed SoC is seen as a strategic move to break into the high-end smartphone segment, which is crucial for Xiaomi's growth [2]. - The report suggests that the self-developed chip will provide Xiaomi with a competitive edge through improved user experience and scale effects [2]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Xiaomi's total revenue to reach 471.8 billion CNY in 2025 and 679.7 billion CNY in 2026, with net profit estimates of 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY respectively [3].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The strategic importance of the central region has been further emphasized, particularly regarding the infrastructure boom in the Midwest, especially in Sichuan province. The central economic work conference at the end of 2023 highlighted the need to optimize major productivity layouts and strengthen the construction of national strategic hinterlands [2][13]. - The issuance of special bonds in the Midwest has significantly accelerated, with a total of 1.19 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 65%. This indicates a clear recovery in fixed asset investment sentiment in the region [3][14]. - The construction sector is expected to see a rebound in physical work volume, with cement shipment rates and asphalt plant operating rates showing positive trends. The cement shipment rate reached 49%, up 0.93 percentage points week-on-week, indicating optimism for Q2 [18]. Summary by Sections Strategic Importance of the Central Region - The central region's development opportunities, particularly in Sichuan, have been recognized at the highest levels of government, with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing regional development and optimizing economic layouts [2][13][17]. Special Bond Issuance - The issuance of special bonds in the Midwest has accelerated, with Sichuan province alone issuing 800.17 billion yuan in new special bonds, a 162% increase year-on-year. This trend is expected to support infrastructure investment and economic recovery in the region [3][14]. Market Performance - The construction index rose by 1.10% during the week of May 12-16, 2025, with significant gains in the housing and construction decoration sectors. Notable stocks included Dongzhu Ecology (+22%) and Zhengzhong Design (+20%) [4][22]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on cyclical opportunities arising from improved infrastructure work volumes, particularly in water conservancy, railways, and aviation sectors. Recommended stocks include Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Communications, and major state-owned enterprises like China Communications Construction [28][29]. - Emphasis on the transformation of the construction sector and emerging business directions, such as AI-driven computing power facilities and cleanroom technology, with recommendations for companies like Hainan Huatie and Baicheng Co [30][31].

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, selling them once growth is realized and PE increases, achieving a multiplier effect on returns, specifically targeting both earnings per share (EPS) and PE for a "double-click" effect [1][8] - Historical backtesting from 2010 to 2017 showed an annualized return of 26.45%, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08%, with consistent excess returns over 11% in each of the seven complete years [9] - Year-to-date, the strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 15.08%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 15.25%, and has exceeded the index by 2.36% in the past week [1][9] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises, and "discontinuity" indicates a significant upward price gap on the first trading day following earnings announcements, reflecting market recognition of the earnings report [2][12] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 28.78%, with an annualized excess return of 27.18%, and a cumulative absolute return of 17.67% this year, outperforming the benchmark by 17.85% [2][16] - The strategy has also shown a weekly excess return of 2.68% [2][16] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences categorized as GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth-oriented, and value-oriented, aiming to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and stable growth potential [3][18] - Historical backtesting indicates stable excess returns for this strategy, with a year-to-date excess return of 7.41% relative to the CSI 300 index, and a weekly excess return of 0.13% [3][18] - The strategy utilizes PBROE and PEG factors to identify stocks with low valuations and strong earnings capabilities, as well as those with reliable growth potential [3][18]

Group 1 - The report highlights the issuance of REITs as a key strategy to attract social capital for urban renewal projects, as outlined in the recent policy document from the Central Committee and the State Council [2][8]. - The total issuance scale of listed REITs has reached 173 billion, with 65 REITs issued as of May 16, 2025 [9]. - The report indicates that the C-REITs have entered a normalized issuance phase, with an acceleration expected in 2024 after a slowdown in 2023 [15]. Group 2 - The REITs market showed positive performance during the week of May 12-16, 2025, with the CSI REITs total index rising by 1.92%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.81 percentage points [3][16]. - The top-performing REITs included Huaxia Nanjing Expressway REIT (+9.13%), with significant gains also seen in Jia Shi Wumei Consumption REIT (+7.09%) and Zhongjin Xiamen Anju REIT (+6.04%) [3][16]. - The report notes that the overall trading activity in the REITs market increased, with a total trading volume of 488 million, reflecting a 6.4% week-on-week rise [4][36]. Group 3 - The report provides insights into the liquidity of the REITs market, indicating that the average trading volume for REITs was 1.12 billion shares, up 5.0% from the previous week [36]. - Specific categories of REITs, such as transportation infrastructure, accounted for 21.7% of the total trading volume, highlighting their significance in the market [4][36]. - The report also details the trading volumes for various REIT categories, with park infrastructure leading at 29.2% of total trading volume [36]. Group 4 - The report discusses the valuation metrics for various REITs, including the bond yield and price-to-NAV ratios, providing a comprehensive overview of the market's valuation landscape [42]. - For instance, the Dongwu Su Garden Industrial REIT has a bond yield of 5.66% and a P/NAV of 0.97, indicating its relative valuation position [43]. - The report emphasizes the importance of these metrics in assessing the attractiveness of different REITs for potential investors [42][43].

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 05 月 18 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 韩乾 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110522100001 hanqian@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报：小市值、资产周转率因子表现较好 -20250516》 2025-05-17 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业进 入高估区域？——估值与基金重仓股配 置监控 2025-05-17》 2025-05-17 3 《金融工程：金融工程-基金持仓与 基准偏离视角下的行业潜在冲击研究》 2025-05-14 金融工程 证券研究报告 基金风格配置监控周报： 权益基金连续两周下调大盘股票仓位 公募基金风格监控 基金季报中披露有基金前十大重仓股，同时企业季度报告中披露有企业的 前十大股东信息（主要使用上市公司 1、3 季度十大股东信息），结合这两 部分信息我们可以得到基金持仓更加详细的重仓股信息。因此模拟全部股 票持仓只需要估计基金剩余的非重仓持股明细。 基金季报（T 期）披露有股票持仓的证监会行业配置 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" with a target price set at 131.8 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [7]. Core Insights - JD Group reported a revenue of 301.1 billion CNY for Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations with a year-on-year growth of 15.8%. Product revenue was 242.3 billion CNY, up 16.2%, while service revenue reached 58.8 billion CNY, growing by 14.0% [1]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,295.1 billion CNY, 1,392.6 billion CNY, and 1,478.1 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a growth of 11.8%, 10.0%, and 5.6% year-on-year [6]. - JD's logistics segment saw a revenue of 46.9 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, although operating profit decreased by 35.3% [3]. - The launch of JD's food delivery service in February 2025 has rapidly expanded, covering 126 cities and achieving nearly 20 million orders [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, JD Group's Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 12.8 billion CNY, marking a 43.8% increase year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 4.2% [1]. - The retail segment achieved a revenue of 263.8 billion CNY, a 16.3% increase, with operating profit of 12.8 billion CNY, up 37.8% [2]. Business Expansion - JD's logistics has expanded internationally, opening new routes and warehouses to enhance supply chain services for both Chinese and European businesses [3]. - The company is actively pursuing a 200 billion CNY plan to convert exports to domestic sales, aiming to create a new supply of affordable goods [2]. Shareholder Returns - JD Group has initiated a share repurchase program with a maximum of 5 billion USD, having repurchased approximately 8.07 million A shares in Q1 2025, totaling around 1.5 billion USD [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" with a target price set at 131.8 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [7]. Core Insights - JD Group reported a revenue of 301.1 billion CNY in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations with a year-on-year growth of 15.8%. Product revenue was 242.3 billion CNY, up 16.2%, while service revenue reached 58.8 billion CNY, growing by 14.0% [1]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,295.1 billion CNY, 1,392.6 billion CNY, and 1,478.1 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a growth of 11.8%, 10.0%, and 5.6% year-on-year [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was 12.8 billion CNY, marking a significant increase of 43.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [1]. Summary by Sections JD Retail - JD Retail achieved a revenue of 263.8 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, with operating profit reaching 12.8 billion CNY, up 37.8% [2]. - The electronics and home appliances category generated 144.3 billion CNY, growing 17.1% due to the "trade-in" policy [2]. - The daily necessities category saw revenue of 98.0 billion CNY, increasing by 14.9% [2]. JD Logistics - JD Logistics reported revenue of 46.9 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, although operating profit decreased by 35.3% to 1.45 billion CNY [3]. - The company has expanded its international logistics capabilities, including new routes and warehouses in Thailand and Poland [3]. JD Delivery - JD launched its food delivery service in February 2025, quickly expanding to cover 126 cities and achieving nearly 20 million orders [4]. Shareholder Returns - JD Group has initiated a share buyback program of up to 5 billion USD, with approximately 80.7 million shares repurchased in Q1 2025, totaling around 1.5 billion USD [5].

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Small Market Capitalization - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the size effect, where smaller market capitalization stocks tend to outperform larger ones over time [8][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the logarithm of the market capitalization of a stock [15] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed well in the recent week, month, and year, indicating its robustness in capturing the size premium [8][10] Factor Name: 90-Day Analyst Coverage - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the level of analyst attention a stock receives, with higher coverage potentially indicating better information availability [8][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the number of analysts covering the stock over the past 90 days [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor showed strong performance in the recent week and month, though its annual performance was weaker [8][10] Factor Name: Turnover Rate Volatility (1-Month) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the stability of trading activity, with higher volatility potentially indicating speculative behavior [8][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the standard deviation of daily turnover rates over the past 20 trading days [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed poorly in the recent week and month but showed strong performance over the past year [8][10] Factor Name: Fama-French 3-Factor 1-Month Residual Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the idiosyncratic risk of a stock after accounting for market, size, and value factors [8][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the standard deviation of residuals from a regression of daily returns on the Fama-French 3 factors over the past 20 trading days [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor exhibited weak performance in the recent week and month but performed well over the past year [8][10] Factor Name: 1-Month Reversal - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the short-term mean-reversion effect, where stocks with recent underperformance tend to rebound [8][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the cumulative return over the past 20 trading days [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed well in the recent month but showed weaker performance in the recent week and year [8][10] Factor Name: Quarterly Asset Turnover - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the efficiency of a company in utilizing its assets to generate revenue [10][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as quarterly revenue divided by total assets [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor showed strong performance in the recent week, month, and year, indicating its effectiveness in capturing operational efficiency [10][14] Factor Name: Quarterly ROE YoY Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the growth in return on equity (ROE) compared to the same quarter in the previous year, reflecting profitability improvement [10][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the year-over-year growth rate of quarterly ROE [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed well across all time horizons, showcasing its robustness in identifying growth opportunities [10][14] --- Factor Backtesting Results Small Market Capitalization - Weekly Excess Return: 1.03% - Monthly Excess Return: 3.94% - Annual Excess Return: 13.73% [11] 90-Day Analyst Coverage - Weekly Excess Return: 0.19% - Monthly Excess Return: -0.01% - Annual Excess Return: -3.00% [11] Turnover Rate Volatility (1-Month) - Weekly Excess Return: -0.51% - Monthly Excess Return: 1.19% - Annual Excess Return: 10.21% [11] Fama-French 3-Factor 1-Month Residual Volatility - Weekly Excess Return: -0.27% - Monthly Excess Return: 0.59% - Annual Excess Return: 7.33% [11] 1-Month Reversal - Weekly Excess Return: -0.28% - Monthly Excess Return: 1.90% - Annual Excess Return: 1.41% [11] Quarterly Asset Turnover - Weekly Excess Return: 0.55% - Monthly Excess Return: 1.39% - Annual Excess Return: 2.78% [11] Quarterly ROE YoY Growth - Weekly Excess Return: 0.36% - Monthly Excess Return: 0.95% - Annual Excess Return: 3.98% [11]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Insights - The AI industry is transitioning from large models and computing power to the practical application of Agents, with the underlying large model capabilities still determining the potential of Agents. The need for AI software to evolve from basic models and simple AI Chatbot applications to Agent products that solve real problems and enhance industrial efficiency is urgent. The ultimate goal for various foundational model manufacturers remains AGI [2][3]. - The domestic foundational model landscape has become clear, with six leading companies in China: Alibaba, DeepSeek, ByteDance, Tencent, Jiyue Xingchen, and Zhipu AI, representing the highest comprehensive strength in foundational models. The U.S. market is similarly dominated by five major players: OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, X.ai, and Meta [2][3]. Summary by Sections AI Agent Development - The third quarter of 2025 is expected to enter a period of intensive Agent deployment. Key players in the C-end market include Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, leveraging their traffic advantages. The focus will be on forming super entry points on mobile platforms through collaborations with phone manufacturers to create lifestyle assistants. Alibaba is viewed as having significant potential [3][4]. - For C-end vertical scenarios, companies like Kingsoft Office, Hehe Information, iFlytek, and Tonghuashun are expected to perform well due to their sticky and high-frequency applications. B-end Agents are categorized into two levels: 1. Head clients requiring high fine-tuning, typically choosing foundational models with cloud capabilities (e.g., Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent), with delivery often handled by recommended core partners [3]. 2. Small and medium clients adopting standard products from companies like Kingdee International, Beisen Holdings, Dingjie Zhizhi, and others due to cost considerations [3]. Recommended Focus Areas - Foundational Model Leaders: Alibaba, DeepSeek, ByteDance, Tencent, Jiyue Xingchen, Zhipu AI [4]. - C-end Agents: Kingsoft Office, Hehe Information, Tonghuashun, iFlytek [4]. - Agent Fine-tuning Delivery: Aisino Technology, Hand Information, Softcom Power, Xinyada, and others [4]. - Standard Products for Agents: Kingdee International, Beisen Holdings, Dingjie Zhizhi, Tax Friend, Top Point Software, Fanwei Network, Yonyou Network, Zhiyuan Interconnection [4].