Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the money market faced multiple disturbances. The overnight funding rate reached a relatively high level since June, with large - bank lending first decreasing and then increasing, and non - bank lending willingness increasing. The second half of the week saw relatively stable certificate of deposit (CD) prices. Considering the 200 billion yuan MLF withdrawal on July 25, the medium - to - long - term liquidity supply in the second half of the month may rely more on MLF operations [1][20]. - Next week, the money market will still face certain pressure due to factors such as MLF withdrawal, large - scale reverse repurchase maturities, over 1 trillion yuan of CD maturities, and approaching the end of the month. However, the overall situation is controllable. The central bank's response to these disturbances is the key to the movement of funding prices. Although there are still many disturbances next week, the end of the "tax period" and the possible acceleration of fiscal expenditures at the end of the month may ease the pressure on inter - bank liquidity compared to this week. Funding prices may show a slow downward trend, but the decline may be limited due to the approaching end - of - month point [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overnight Funding: Has It Reached the Peak? - This week, the money market faced multiple disturbances. In the first half of the week, the money market tightened marginally, and in the second half, there were signs of easing. The overnight funding rate reached a relatively high level since June. From July 14 - 18, the weekly averages of DR001 and R001 increased by 14.62BP and 13.37BP respectively compared to the previous week, and the weekly averages of DR007 and R007 increased by 5.82BP and 3.25BP respectively [11]. - In the first half of the week, factors such as tax payments, special treasury bond issuance, MLF withdrawal, and large - scale CD maturities led to a marginal tightening of the money market. The central bank continuously increased liquidity injections. On July 15, it conducted a 1.4 trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation to inject medium - to - long - term liquidity. Both funding and CD issuance prices increased to varying degrees [11]. - From July 17 - 18, as tax payments neared completion and the central bank continued to increase liquidity injections, there were signs of easing in the money market, but the process of easing may have fallen short of market expectations. Large - bank lending increased moderately, and the weighted CD issuance price fluctuated downward, indicating some relief of money - market pressure. However, funding prices remained at relatively high levels since June, with overnight funding above 1.45% [12]. - Next week, multiple factors such as MLF withdrawal, large - scale reverse repurchase maturities, over 1 trillion yuan of CD maturities, and approaching the end of the month will put pressure on the money market, but the overall situation is controllable. The central bank's response to these disturbances is crucial for the movement of funding prices [23]. 2. Open Market: Over 2 Trillion Yuan to Mature Next Week - From July 14 - 18, the open market had a net injection of 260.11 billion yuan, including 172.68 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase issuance, 42.57 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities, 140 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase issuance, and 10 billion yuan of MLF withdrawal [27]. - From July 21 - 25, the open market will have 204.68 billion yuan of maturities, including 172.68 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities, 20 billion yuan of MLF withdrawal, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities [3][27]. 3. Government Bonds: Nearly 700 Billion Yuan to Be Issued Next Week - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 42.88 billion yuan, with 243.3 billion yuan of treasury bond issuance, 251.2 billion yuan of local government bond issuance, 185.2 billion yuan of treasury bond maturities, and 87.8 billion yuan of local government bond maturities [38]. - Next week, government bonds are planned to be issued worth 679.1 billion yuan, including 375 billion yuan of treasury bond issuance, 304.1 billion yuan of local government bond issuance, 395.3 billion yuan of treasury bond maturities, and 114.6 billion yuan of local government bond maturities. The net payment of treasury bonds is - 2.03 billion yuan, and the net payment of local government bonds is 26.02 billion yuan [4][38]. 4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in July 2025 will be approximately 0.97%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.31 percentage points (the forecast for the end of June was 1.28%) and a year - on - year decrease of 0.52 percentage points (1.49% in the same period last year) [44]. - From July 14 - 18, the open market had a net injection of 260.11 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 42.88 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure gap was 5.49 billion yuan, the reserve requirement was - 3.04 billion yuan, and tax payments were 169.46 billion yuan [45]. 5. Money Market: Large - Bank Lending First Decreases and Then Increases - Overnight funding rates increased significantly. As of July 18, compared to July 11, DR001 increased by 11.39BP to 1.46%, DR007 increased by 3.49BP to 1.51%, R001 increased by 8.43BP to 1.49%, and R007 decreased by 0.14BP to 1.51% [5][47]. - DR001 exceeded 1.4%. As of July 18, compared to July 11, "DR001 - OMO" increased to 5.66BP, "DR007 - OMO" increased to 10.67BP, "R001 - OMO" increased to 8.81BP, "R007 - OMO" decreased to 10.72BP, "R001 - DR001" decreased to 3.15BP, and "R007 - DR007" decreased to 0.05BP [47]. - SHIBOR rates: The weekly averages of overnight and 7 - day rates changed by 15.1BP and 4.74BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.32% and 1.47% [52]. - CNH HIBOR rates: The weekly averages of overnight and 7 - day rates changed by 8.43BP and 2.47BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.51% and 1.61% [52]. - Interest rate swap closing rates: The weekly averages of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y rates changed by 0.07BP and 3.11BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.53% and 1.53% [55]. - Bill rates: The weekly averages of six - month national - share transfer discount rates and six - month city - commercial transfer discount rates changed by - 0.1 percentage points to 0.84% and 0.95% respectively [55]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.2446 trillion yuan, a decrease of 966 billion yuan compared to July 7 - 11. Among them, the average daily trading volume of R001 was 6.4144 trillion yuan, with an average share of 88.5%; the average daily trading volume of R007 was 746.1 billion yuan, with an average share of 10.3% [57]. - The average daily trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange new - style pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2.1314 trillion yuan, a decrease of 230 million yuan compared to July 7 - 11. Among them, the average daily trading volume of GC001 was 1.8606 trillion yuan, with an average share of 87.3%; the average daily trading volume of GC007 was 199.1 billion yuan, with an average share of 9.3% [57]. - From July 14 - 18, the average net lending of the banking system was 3 trillion yuan, a change of - 83.4 billion yuan compared to last week. Among them, the average net lending of state - owned large banks was 3.62 trillion yuan, a change of - 86.84 billion yuan compared to last week, with an overnight share of 97%, a change of - 0.26 percentage points compared to last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.61 trillion yuan, a change of 3.44 billion yuan compared to last week [62]. 6. Certificates of Deposit 6.1 Primary Market: Maturity Volume to Increase Next Week - From July 14 - 18, the total issuance of CDs was 945 billion yuan, with a net financing of 18.36 billion yuan. Compared to last week's total issuance of 425.9 billion yuan and net financing of - 9.54 billion yuan, the issuance scale and net financing increased [70]. - By issuer, state - owned banks had the highest CD issuance scale and net financing. State - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks issued 344.7 billion yuan, 215.3 billion yuan, 305 billion yuan, and 74.2 billion yuan respectively, with net financing of 64.8 billion yuan, 49.5 billion yuan, 62 billion yuan, and 14.4 billion yuan respectively [70]. - By maturity, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 6 - month CDs had the highest net financing. The issuance scales of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs were 102.5 billion yuan, 118.7 billion yuan, 186.7 billion yuan, 62.8 billion yuan, and 474.3 billion yuan respectively, with net financing of 81.1 billion yuan, - 80.5 billion yuan, 81.3 billion yuan, 47.6 billion yuan, and 54.1 billion yuan respectively [70]. - Next week (July 21 - 27), the maturity volume of CDs will be 1.0699 trillion yuan, an increase of 308.5 billion yuan compared to this week (July 14 - 20). The maturity volume is mainly concentrated in national - share banks and city - commercial banks, and the maturities are mainly concentrated in 1 - year and 3 - month terms [80][81]. 6.2 Secondary Market: Yields Fluctuate Narrowly - This week, CD secondary market yields fluctuated narrowly and decreased slightly compared to last week. The yields of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year AAA - rated CDs decreased by 0BP, - 2BP, - 2BP, - 2BP, and - 1BP respectively to 1.51%, 1.54%, 1.58%, 1.61%, and 1.62% [94]. - The yields of most CD grades decreased. The yields of 1 - year AAA, AAA -, AA +, AA, and AA - rated CDs changed by - 1BP, - 1BP, 0BP, 1BP, and 0BP respectively to 1.62%, 1.62%, 1.65%, 1.7%, and 1.86% [94].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Viewpoints - The overseas computing power industry chain remains highly prosperous and has not been impacted by DeepSeek and trade frictions, with stronger fundamental resonance in the related industry chain. The AI industry is viewed as the main investment theme for the year, with expectations for continued high prosperity in the AI sector and the AIDC industry chain. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for domestic AI infrastructure competition and application development [4][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of "AI + overseas expansion + satellite" core investment opportunities, highlighting areas such as optical modules, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power lines. The report also notes the recovery of the offshore wind industry and the promising developments in the satellite internet sector [5][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations include: - Optical modules & optical devices: Focus on companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology [6]. - Switch server PCB: Key recommendations include Huadian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [6]. - Low valuation, high dividend, and cloud computing IDC resource reassessment: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [6]. - AIDC & cooling: Key recommendations include Yingweike, Runze Technology, and Guanghuan New Network [6]. - AIGC applications / edge computing: Key recommendations include Yiyuan Communication, Guanghetong, and Meige Intelligent [6]. 2. Offshore Wind and Submarine Cables & Intelligent Driving - Offshore wind and submarine cables: Key recommendations include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [7]. - Recovery of overseas expansion & concentration on leading companies: Key recommendations include Huace Navigation, Weisheng Information, and Tuobang Co. [7]. - Intelligent driving: Suggested focus on modules & terminals, sensors, connectors, and structural components [7]. 3. Satellite Internet & Low Altitude Economy - Accelerated development of low-orbit satellites and low-altitude economy: Key recommendations include Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [8]. - Suggested focus on companies like Chengchang Technology, Zhenlei Technology, and Shenglu Communication [8]. 4. Market Performance Review - The communication sector rose by 7.02% during the week of July 14-18, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.93 percentage points. The communication equipment manufacturing sector increased by 9.80% [29][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate market shows weak supply and demand, and policies are expected to be more aggressive in the second half of the year. Steel prices are rising due to policy and cost factors. Industrial production is stable, and infrastructure construction starts are relatively strong. There are mixed trends in consumption, trade, prices, and the issuance of interest - rate bonds is progressing steadily [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Demand - New home sales decreased both on a week - on - week and year - on - year basis. As of the week of July 18, the transaction area of 20 - city commercial housing was 1.471 million square meters, down 22% week - on - week and 25% year - on - year. Second - hand home sales also declined. Automobile consumption improved marginally, with the average daily retail sales of passenger cars up 19.9% week - on - week and 9.7% year - on - year [12][38] 3.2 Production - In the mid - upstream, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan increased to 80.4%, while the rebar operating rate decreased to 43.0%. The PTA operating rate rose to 80.8%, and the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased to 92.9%. In the downstream, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in the automotive industry continued to improve, with the semi - steel tire operating rate at a seasonal high [44] 3.3 Investment - The apparent consumption of rebar declined, but its price increased by 1.0% week - on - week to 3,293 yuan/ton. The asphalt price rose by 0.8% to 3,630.8 yuan/ton. The cement price decreased by 1.7% to 108.0 points, while the cement shipping rate increased and the cement inventory ratio decreased [60] 3.4 Trade - In exports, port container throughput decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, and the CCFI composite index dropped by 0.8%. In imports, the CICFI composite index rose by 0.3% week - on - week [71] 3.5 Prices - The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased by 0.2% week - on - week, with pork prices rising by 0.2%. International crude oil prices generally declined, with Brent crude oil spot prices down 1.2% week - on - week. Gold prices rose slightly [77][82] 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking - From July 21 to 25, the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 786.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 56.2 billion yuan. As of July 18, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds exceeded 90%, reaching 91.8%. The cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds was 61.8%, and that of new special bonds was 54.3% [93][95] 3.7 Policy Week Observation - The central bank conducted a 1.4 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The central city work conference set seven key tasks for urban work. The State Council studied measures to strengthen the domestic cycle. The central bank solicited opinions on canceling the freezing of collateral for bond repurchases. Local policies included allowing the use of housing provident funds for down payments in Shenzhen and implementing "trade - in" housing subsidies in Changsha [103][106][108]

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT reported a public subscription of 28.616 billion shares with a final confirmation ratio of 0.3145% and a subscription coverage multiple of 317.95 times [2][8] - The Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT had approximately 40,300 public investors with an effective subscription of 32.914 billion shares, a confirmation ratio of 0.2198%, and a coverage multiple of 455.03 times [2][8] Group 2: Primary Market - As of July 18, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 177.1 billion yuan, with 68 REITs issued [9] Group 3: Market Performance - During the week of July 14-18, 2025, the CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.06%, while the total REITs index rose by 0.01% [3][18] - The total REITs index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.08 percentage points and the CSI All Bond index by 0.09 percentage points [3][18] - The top-performing REITs included the China Merchants Science and Technology REIT (+3.05%), Huaxia Jinmao Commercial REIT (+2.24%), and Zhongjin Hubei Keti Guanggu REIT (+2.08%) [3][18] Group 4: Liquidity - The total trading volume of REITs decreased, with a total turnover of 496 million yuan, down 9.9% from the previous week [4][38] - The largest category by trading volume was park infrastructure REITs, accounting for 22.8% of the total [4][38] Group 5: Correlation - The correlation coefficients between the CSI REITs index and various indices over the past 20 days showed a negative correlation with the CSI 1000 index (-0.623) and a positive correlation with the CSI All Bond index (0.715) [31] - The internal correlation among different REIT categories indicated strong relationships, particularly between park infrastructure and warehouse logistics REITs [32]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained) [9] Core Insights - The FDA has approved five e-cigarette products from Juul Labs, marking a significant step in the compliance process for the U.S. market, with the total number of approved products increasing from 34 to 39 [1] - The U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee has passed a bill to combat illegal e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches, emphasizing the need for increased enforcement and product review [2][3] - In the UK, a ban on disposable e-cigarettes has effectively reduced youth usage rates, with current usage among 18-year-olds dropping from 20% to 15% over three years [4] Summary by Sections FDA Approvals - Juul Labs has regained market authorization for five products, including JUUL devices and Virginia tobacco-flavored JUULpods, after being banned in 2022 [1] - The FDA's approval of Juul's products is expected to have a profound impact on the U.S. e-cigarette market landscape [1] U.S. Policy Developments - The Senate Appropriations Committee approved a bill providing $27.1 billion in discretionary funding, with a focus on combating unauthorized e-cigarettes [2] - The committee expressed concerns over the 1.63 million youth using e-cigarettes and mandated the FDA to allocate at least $200 million for enforcement against illegal products [3] UK Youth Usage Trends - The ASH report indicates a decline in e-cigarette usage among 18-year-olds from 20% to 15% and among 16-17-year-olds from 15% to 12% [4] - The Independent British Vape Trade Association (IBVTA) anticipates further declines in youth usage due to the recent ban on disposable e-cigarettes [4] Misconceptions and Trends - There is a growing misconception among youth regarding the dangers of e-cigarettes, with 63% of 11-17-year-olds believing that cigarettes are not more dangerous than e-cigarettes [5] - The number of youths trying smoking has reached a record high, with 21% of 11-17-year-olds having tried smoking, indicating a potential increase in future smoking rates [6] Industry Perspectives - The IBVTA's CEO highlighted the impact of negative media on public perception, stressing the need for age verification to ensure e-cigarettes are sold only to adult smokers [7] - Suggested companies for investment consideration include Smoore International, Jinjing Pharmaceutical, and others involved in the vaping supply chain [7]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the acceleration of marine defense equipment construction and the potential for marine resource exploration and development, driven by national policies aimed at high-quality marine economic development [2] - Deep-sea operations are becoming a global focus, with underwater equipment driving the construction of the industrial chain, as countries enhance their military presence in deep-sea areas [3] - The report anticipates that China's underwater defense system construction will accelerate, with ongoing advancements in underwater communication networks and unmanned submersibles, benefiting from defense system development demands [4] - The urgency of deep-sea resource development is highlighted, with various metal minerals and oil and gas resources at the ocean floor, necessitating enhanced capabilities for marine resource acquisition [5] Summary by Sections Marine Defense Equipment - The central government is pushing for high-quality development of the marine economy, which includes strengthening marine technology innovation and enhancing marine strategic capabilities [2] - The U.S. military is significantly investing in deep-sea capabilities, developing systematic and unmanned intelligent deep-sea combat equipment [3] Deep-Sea Resource Development - The report notes that China faces a severe situation regarding key mineral resource security, with high dependence on imports for nickel, cobalt, and lithium [5] - The report suggests that through policy support and technological advancements, China is poised to enhance its deep-sea resource exploration and development capabilities [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the entire deep-sea technology industrial chain, particularly in marine security and resource sectors, with specific attention to defense equipment, deep-sea oil and gas, offshore wind power, and deep-sea mining [6] - Suggested companies for investment include China Marine Defense, Western Materials, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, among others [6]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - The report identifies the "连板空间" (limit-up space) as a key indicator of short-term market sentiment, categorizing it into four phases: emotional freezing period (2-3 limit-ups), chaotic rotation period (4-6 limit-ups), main upward period (7-9 limit-ups), and market climax period (10 limit-ups and above) [2][8][12] - During the market climax period, theme investment shows superior short-term win rates and odds, followed by the chaotic rotation period. However, for mid-term performance (20 trading days), the main upward period outperforms the chaotic rotation period [2][8][12] Group 2: Key Themes - AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) is experiencing high demand due to policy support, with expectations for performance to exceed forecasts. The market for intelligent computing centers is projected to grow at an annual rate of over 25%, reaching a market size of over 280 billion yuan by 2028 [34][39] - Urban renewal has been highlighted as a significant focus, with the recent Central Urban Work Conference emphasizing the need for high-quality urban development and structural optimization [42][45] - The stablecoin sector is gaining attention as global regulatory frameworks are being established, with recent legislative actions in the U.S. and Hong Kong promoting the internationalization of the renminbi [47][48] Group 3: Policy Dynamics - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is pushing for state capital to concentrate on forward-looking strategic emerging industries, emphasizing technology innovation and industrial integration [55][56] - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced plans to promote the construction of over 100,000 high-power charging facilities by the end of 2027, focusing on the integration of charging networks with existing infrastructure [58][59] - The recent "Action Plan for Measurement Support for New Quality Productivity Development (2025-2030)" aims to address key measurement technology needs across ten priority industries, including AI and new energy [63]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: BP (Book-to-Price Ratio) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the valuation of a stock by comparing its book value to its market value [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ BP = \frac{\text{Current Net Asset}}{\text{Current Total Market Value}} $ [13] 2. Factor Name: BP Three-Year Percentile - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the relative valuation of a stock over the past three years [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{BP Three-Year Percentile} = \text{Percentile of Current BP in the Last Three Years} $ [13] 3. Factor Name: Quarterly EP (Earnings-to-Price Ratio) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures profitability relative to market value on a quarterly basis [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly EP} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Net Profit}}{\text{Net Asset}} $ [13] 4. Factor Name: Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the relative profitability of a stock over the past year [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile} = \text{Percentile of Current Quarterly EP in the Last Year} $ [13] 5. Factor Name: Quarterly SP (Sales-to-Price Ratio) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures revenue generation relative to market value on a quarterly basis [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly SP} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Operating Revenue}}{\text{Net Asset}} $ [13] 6. Factor Name: Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the relative revenue generation of a stock over the past year [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile} = \text{Percentile of Current Quarterly SP in the Last Year} $ [13] 7. Factor Name: Quarterly Gross Margin - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures profitability efficiency by comparing gross profit to sales revenue [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly Gross Margin} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Gross Profit}}{\text{Quarterly Sales Revenue}} $ [13] 8. Factor Name: Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies earnings surprises relative to historical growth trends [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Current Quarterly Net Profit} - (\text{Last Year Same Quarter Net Profit} + \text{Average Growth of Last 8 Quarters})}{\text{Standard Deviation of Growth in Last 8 Quarters}} $ [13] 9. Factor Name: Standardized Unexpected Revenue (SUR) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies revenue surprises relative to historical growth trends [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{SUR} = \frac{\text{Current Quarterly Revenue} - (\text{Last Year Same Quarter Revenue} + \text{Average Growth of Last 8 Quarters})}{\text{Standard Deviation of Growth in Last 8 Quarters}} $ [13] 10. Factor Name: 1-Month Turnover Rate and Price Correlation - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relationship between turnover rate and price over the past month [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Correlation} = \text{Correlation Coefficient of Turnover Rate and Price over the Last 20 Trading Days} $ [13] --- Factor Backtesting Results IC Performance - **BP**: Weekly IC: -7.07%, Monthly IC: 0.84%, Yearly IC: 1.37%, Historical IC: 2.35% [9] - **BP Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC: -4.35%, Monthly IC: -0.95%, Yearly IC: 2.26%, Historical IC: 1.73% [9] - **Quarterly EP**: Weekly IC: 4.35%, Monthly IC: 0.50%, Yearly IC: -0.03%, Historical IC: 1.07% [9] - **Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC: -0.91%, Monthly IC: 2.98%, Yearly IC: 1.21%, Historical IC: 1.72% [9] - **Quarterly SP**: Weekly IC: -1.33%, Monthly IC: 0.50%, Yearly IC: 0.45%, Historical IC: 0.70% [9] - **Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC: 1.57%, Monthly IC: 1.02%, Yearly IC: 2.99%, Historical IC: 1.87% [9] - **Quarterly Gross Margin**: Weekly IC: 7.04%, Monthly IC: 0.06%, Yearly IC: 0.49%, Historical IC: 0.50% [9] - **SUE**: Weekly IC: 4.59%, Monthly IC: 4.44%, Yearly IC: 0.87%, Historical IC: 0.97% [9] - **SUR**: Weekly IC: 3.53%, Monthly IC: 2.05%, Yearly IC: 0.98%, Historical IC: 0.86% [9] - **1-Month Turnover Rate and Price Correlation**: Weekly IC: 10.17%, Monthly IC: 2.65%, Yearly IC: 2.75%, Historical IC: 1.69% [9] Excess Return of Long-Only Portfolios - **BP**: Weekly: -0.90%, Monthly: 0.06%, Yearly: -0.30%, Historical: 33.52% [11] - **BP Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly: -0.60%, Monthly: -2.29%, Yearly: -0.76%, Historical: -1.67% [11] - **Quarterly EP**: Weekly: -0.16%, Monthly: 0.58%, Yearly: 2.84%, Historical: 29.38% [11] - **Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly: -0.61%, Monthly: 0.55%, Yearly: 3.45%, Historical: 31.87% [11] - **Quarterly SP**: Weekly: -0.39%, Monthly: 0.15%, Yearly: 0.93%, Historical: -3.80% [11] - **Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly: -0.30%, Monthly: -0.19%, Yearly: 10.46%, Historical: -0.86% [11] - **Quarterly Gross Margin**: Weekly: -0.09%, Monthly: -0.15%, Yearly: 5.26%, Historical: 15.26% [11] - **SUE**: Weekly: 0.92%, Monthly: 2.09%, Yearly: -0.37%, Historical: 6.59% [11] - **SUR**: Weekly: 0.83%, Monthly: 1.29%, Yearly: 1.23%, Historical: 13.76% [11] - **1-Month Turnover Rate and Price Correlation**: Weekly: 0.13%, Monthly: 1.11%, Yearly: 7.31%, Historical: 20.14% [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 5.2 CNY, based on a current price of 4.49 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a strong player in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with high profitability elasticity and increased shareholder returns expected to lead to a revaluation of its value [2]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a restructuring phase to a growth phase, significantly improving its operational status and financial health [1][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1993, has developed a synergistic operating model focusing on aluminum and deep processing, supported by coal mining, thermal power generation, and carbon products [1]. - The current production capacity includes 690,000 tons of deep-processed aluminum, 750,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, 150,000 tons of carbon products, and 90,000 kW of electricity [1]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a significant recovery post-restructuring, with a projected net profit of 1.83 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 159.7% [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 227.61 billion CNY in 2024 to 235.40 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.42% [5]. Industry Analysis - The electrolytic aluminum industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand dynamic, with domestic production capacity nearing its ceiling at approximately 45 million tons [3]. - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is primarily driven by sectors such as construction, transportation, and renewable energy, with significant growth expected from photovoltaic and new energy vehicles [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company has enhanced its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 750,000 tons per year, benefiting from cost reductions in alumina and electricity, which are expected to improve profit margins in 2025 [2][4]. - The average electricity price in the Guangyuan region is projected to decrease significantly in 2025, further enhancing profitability [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company has initiated a robust employee stock ownership plan, aiming to raise up to 1.25 billion CNY, and has committed to distributing at least 60% of its distributable profits as dividends over the next three years [2][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company's manufacturing business has shown resilience, with a revenue of $660 million in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. The manufacturing segment grew by 9.4%, while the retail segment is awaiting recovery [1]. - The U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement has been established, imposing a 20% tariff on goods exported from Vietnam to the U.S., which enhances the stability of export orders for the company, as the U.S. is its second-largest market [2]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its manufacturing capacity by investing in Indonesia and India, aiming to enhance operational agility and flexibility in response to global supply chain fluctuations [3]. - The retail subsidiary, Bao Sheng, is expanding its omnichannel retail strategy, enhancing product offerings and operational efficiency to improve profitability and shareholder returns [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at $8.4 billion, $8.9 billion, and $9.5 billion, with net profits of $400 million, $430 million, and $480 million respectively, indicating a stable growth trajectory [5]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative revenue reached $4.06 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. The manufacturing segment contributed a 6.2% growth, while Bao Sheng's revenue declined by 8.3% [1]. Trade Agreements - The trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is expected to provide more certainty regarding tariff burdens for apparel brands and manufacturers, benefiting the company's operations in Vietnam [2]. Manufacturing Strategy - The company is accelerating its long-term capacity layout strategy, focusing on regions with abundant labor supply and sustainable growth potential, while also enhancing digital transformation to improve operational performance [3]. Retail Strategy - Bao Sheng is committed to refining its retail strategy by dynamically managing inventory and expanding partnerships to strengthen profit margins [4]. Financial Projections - The report maintains its earnings forecasts, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.25, $0.27, and $0.30 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a stable outlook for the company's financial health [5].