行业报告 | 行业研究周报 金属与材料 证券研究报告 宏观情绪回暖，看好基本金属向上修复 基本金属：关税政策缓和，宏观情绪回暖，铜铝价格向上修复。1）铜：本周铜价震荡，沪铜收于 77670 元/吨。宏观层面，中美贸易摩擦缓和，叠加美国通胀降温，4月 CPI 同比上涨2.3%，加大美联储降息概率， 整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，提振铜价上行。基本面上，铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落，再度创历史新低，但下 跌速度放缓，本周随着铜价上行，国内再生铜供应紧张局面缓和，成交量有明显改善，但再生铜进口端仍 呈现下滑趋势。整体来看，5月部分铜材加工率环比4 月有所下滑，但好于去年同期，当前库存水平较低， 但需求已有走弱迹象，进人 5 月中下旬需求转为淡季，库存将由去库转为累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱， 当前宏微观共振支撑短期铜价保持高位震荡运行。2）铝：本周铝价回升，沪铝收于 20190 元/吨，重新站 上 2 万大关。国内外宏观情绪大幅好转叠加中国铝锭社会库存持续降库，以及氧化铝价格上涨，现货铝价 上行。供应方面：本周山东地区电解铝企业继续向云南地区转移产能，广西地区电解铝企业有所复产。综 合来说，本周电解铝行业理论开工产能较上周 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.794 billion and a net profit of 370 million for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.95% and 16.02% respectively [1][3] - The yeast business continues to show strong growth, contributing significantly to revenue, while the sugar business is undergoing adjustments [1] - Domestic revenue slightly decreased by 0.3% to 2.099 billion, while international revenue increased by 23% to 1.684 billion, indicating robust overseas performance [1] - The company has increased its distributor count by 1,399 to 24,211, with domestic and international distributors growing by 753 and 646 respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - The gross margin improved by 1.31 percentage points to 25.97%, and the net margin increased by 0.72 percentage points to 10.20% [2] - The sales expense ratio rose by 0.74 percentage points to 5.58%, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.20 percentage points to 3.49% [2] - The company expects revenue growth of 13%, 11%, and 8% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 19%, 15%, and 13% [2][8]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - Carbon Fiber: The T300 large tow is currently at a stage of bottoming out, but there is a possibility of continued price competition due to rapid capacity release by some companies. However, the number of companies in the precursor segment is limited, making significant price drops unlikely. It is recommended to focus on Jilin Carbon Valley and other companies in this sector [3]. - Electronic Materials: The demand for foldable smartphones remains high despite a downturn in consumer electronics. The continuous decline in industry price bands is expected to further stimulate downstream demand, creating a positive cycle. The report remains optimistic about the penetration of foldable smartphones over the next 3-5 years and highlights the potential for domestic substitution in upstream materials like photoresists and high-frequency high-speed CCL. Key recommendations include Shiming Technology and Kaisheng Technology [3]. - New Energy Materials: In the photovoltaic sector, downstream demand continues to grow rapidly, but the expansion of various segments in the supply chain suggests a need for market clearing. In wind energy, offshore wind power is overcoming obstacles and expanding, with a high concentration in the wind turbine blade segment. The report recommends focusing on Times New Materials [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The new materials index increased by 0.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.5 percentage points. Notable performances include the carbon fiber index up by 2.9% and the coating ink index up by 3.1% [11]. - Among the new materials sector, 49% of stocks achieved positive returns, with standout performers including Yuzhong Sanxia A (+50.6%) and Jilin Chemical Fiber (+24.5%) [11]. Key Focus Areas - Price Increase: On May 13, Jilin Chemical Fiber announced a price increase of 10,000 yuan per ton for its wet 3K carbon fiber products, driven by demand from the low-altitude economy and drones [8]. - Upcoming Events: Huawei's new Harmony OS computer is set to be released on May 19, 2025 [8]. Key Tracking Targets - The report tracks key companies in the carbon fiber and electronic materials sectors, providing insights into their market performance and future prospects [10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company focuses on innovative therapies for cancer and metabolic diseases, with a strong emphasis on addressing unmet medical needs in obesity and tumor treatment [1][11]. - LAE102, a globally pioneering ActRIIA monoclonal antibody, aims to mitigate muscle loss associated with GLP-1 receptor agonist weight loss therapies, showing promising results in early clinical trials [2][38]. - Afuresertib (LAE002), a broad-spectrum AKT kinase inhibitor, is currently in late-stage clinical trials for HR+/HER2- breast cancer, demonstrating significant potential as a new treatment option for resistant cases [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Laekna Therapeutics, established in 2016 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in June 2023, is a biotechnology company dedicated to developing innovative therapies for cancer, metabolic diseases, and liver fibrosis [1][11]. LAE102 Development - LAE102 targets the ActRIIA receptor to counteract muscle loss caused by GLP-1 receptor agonists, with preclinical studies confirming its efficacy in promoting muscle growth and reducing fat accumulation [2]. - The drug has shown excellent safety and tolerability in Phase I trials, with no serious adverse events reported [38]. Afuresertib (LAE002) Development - Afuresertib is an oral, reversible, ATP-competitive AKT inhibitor that effectively suppresses tumor cell growth and metastasis by inhibiting the PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling pathway [3]. - The drug is currently in Phase III clinical trials for HR+/HER2- breast cancer, with promising results in earlier phases indicating its potential as a new treatment for resistant breast cancer [3]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates revenues of 44 million, 50 million, and 76 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with projected net losses of 271 million, 298 million, and 254 million yuan for the same years [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the REITs industry, particularly following the recent government initiatives to promote the issuance of infrastructure REITs and other asset-backed securities [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent government policy aimed at enhancing market-oriented financing models to attract private capital for urban renewal projects, which includes the promotion of REITs [2][8]. - The REITs market has shown strong performance, with the total REITs index rising by 1.92% during the week of May 12 to May 16, 2025, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 and the China Bond Index [3][16]. - The liquidity in the REITs market has improved, with a total trading volume of 488 million yuan, reflecting a 6.4% increase from the previous week [4][36]. Industry Dynamics - The Central Committee and the State Council have issued opinions to continuously promote urban renewal actions, emphasizing the need for market-oriented investment and financing models [2][8]. Primary Market - As of May 16, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 173 billion yuan, with 65 products issued [9][15]. Market Performance - The report notes that the China REITs total return index increased by 1.39%, with specific REITs such as Huaxia Nanjing Expressway REIT leading the gains at 9.13% [3][16]. - The report provides comparative performance data, showing that the REITs total index outperformed the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index by 0.81 percentage points [3][26]. Liquidity - The report indicates an increase in trading activity, with the average trading volume for REITs rising to 1.12 billion shares, a 5.0% increase from the previous week [4][36]. Valuation - The report includes valuation metrics for various REITs, indicating a range of bond yield rates and price-to-NAV ratios, which provide insights into the relative valuation of different asset types within the REITs sector [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price yet to be specified [3][11]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's release of its first self-developed mobile SoC, the Xuanjie O1, marks a significant milestone, positioning the company among the top global smartphone hardware manufacturers [1]. - The self-developed chip is expected to enhance Xiaomi's competitiveness in the high-end smartphone market, which remains a critical area for growth [2]. - The synergy between Xiaomi's self-developed chips, operating systems, and automotive business is anticipated to drive revenue growth and improve user experience [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi has invested in chip development since 2014, culminating in the launch of the Xuanjie O1 in May 2025, making it one of the two domestic manufacturers with self-developed chip capabilities [1]. Market Position - The self-developed SoC is seen as a strategic move to break into the high-end market segment (priced above 6000 RMB) and to establish a competitive edge through enhanced user experience and scale effects [2]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Xiaomi's total revenue to reach 471.8 billion RMB in 2025 and 679.7 billion RMB in 2026, with net profits adjusted for shareholders expected to be 42.9 billion RMB and 85.5 billion RMB respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at 12.25 CNY and an expected relative return of 10%-20% over the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the wind power casting and injection molding market, benefiting from high growth in wind power installations and significant increases in shipment volumes. The report anticipates a turning point in profitability driven by scale effects [4][2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.70 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.87%, and a net profit of 623.81 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 29.55% compared to the previous year [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.30 billion CNY, marking an impressive year-on-year growth of 86.41%, with a net profit of 121 million CNY, up 39.14% [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 17.34%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 13.11%, an increase of 2.83 percentage points [3]. - The total operating costs for 2024 were 4.29 billion CNY, up 2.44% from the previous year, primarily due to increased production and depreciation costs [3]. Capacity Expansion and Industry Outlook - As of December 31, 2024, the company has established an annual production capacity exceeding 700,000 tons, positioning itself as a major supplier in the global wind power casting market [2]. - The wind power industry is entering a new growth phase, driven by the implementation of large-scale and lightweight technology, with cumulative bidding volumes reaching new highs [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 505 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.5%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 56 million yuan, up 91.2% [1] - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of forged main shafts for wind power, benefiting from the high growth in wind power installations and increased shipment volumes [2][4] - The company has implemented cost control and technological innovations to enhance customer satisfaction and expand market share in the industrial casting and forging sector [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total operating income of 505 million yuan, a 97.5% increase year-on-year, and a total profit of 63 million yuan, up 95.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, reflecting a 91.2% increase, while the non-recurring net profit was 53 million yuan, up 127.2% [1] Business Development - The company is leveraging its expertise in forging to capture a larger market share in the wind power sector, with a focus on large megawatt products [2] - The casting business has seen rapid growth, with a 120% year-on-year increase in delivery volume for casting products, and sales revenue for wind power casting products reached 277 million yuan, a 71% increase [2] Employee Incentives - The company announced an employee stock ownership plan in April 2025, involving up to 2.805 million shares, which is expected to enhance operational vitality [4] Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 380 million yuan, 570 million yuan, and 720 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 11, and 9 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at 12.25 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 2024 revenue of 4.70 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.87%, and a net profit of 623.81 million CNY, up 29.55% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the wind power casting and injection molding market, benefiting from the high growth in wind power installations [2]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, achieving a gross margin of 17.34% in 2024, despite a slight decrease from the previous year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.30 billion CNY, a remarkable increase of 86.41% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.21 billion CNY, up 39.14% [1]. - The total operating costs for 2024 were 4.29 billion CNY, reflecting a 2.44% increase from the previous year, primarily due to increased production and depreciation [3]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.04 billion CNY, 1.11 billion CNY, and 1.22 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 10 [4]. Industry Outlook - The wind power industry is entering a new growth phase, driven by the adoption of large-scale and lightweight technologies, which has opened up new market opportunities [2]. - The company has expanded its production capacity to over 700,000 tons annually, positioning itself to meet the increasing demand in the wind power sector [2].

策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 宽信用与弱预期的裂口 市场思考： 如何理解近期 M2 与社融的强势表现？ 1）M2 与社融是一体两面。近期 M2、社融增速均出现回升向好态势，然而 后续仍然需要进一步观察。其一是社融的增长依赖政府债，信贷表现不佳， 其二 M2 在 4 月的上行一定程度也有低基数的影响——2024 年上半年对金 融总量数据产生"挤水分"，M2 加速下行。2）从 2015 年以来，社融与 M2 的节奏表现整体是一致的，但每一轮的表征不同。在几轮周期中，M2 底部回升幅度更加明显，但顶部方面，15-21 年期间，M2 顶部往往是领先 于社融，表明社融的上升持续性更强。而 2022 年的 M2 回升却强于社融， 期间政府债券在同期明显上行。我们认为，居民中长贷反映出的地产周期的 作用非常关键。3）因此，M2 的持续回升是社融回升的基础。展望未来， 一方面基数压力仍然不大，去年 9 月份开始 M2 增速才开始探底回升，另一 方面，宽货币基调强化。24Q4 货政报告指出" 注重盘活存量金融资源 "、 " 防范资金沉淀空转 "，而在 25Q1 报告中则是" 灵活把握政策实施的力度 和 ...