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科士达(002518):新行业、新市场加速开拓,看好公司迎来业绩拐点
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-16 13:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to face a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 due to a slowdown in demand for household energy storage in Europe and increased impairment losses related to photovoltaic power plants [1]. - The company is actively expanding into new industries such as data centers and new markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, which are anticipated to offset the impacts of inventory digestion from downstream customers [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 4.16 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 23.54%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, down 53.38% year-over-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show a revenue of 943 million yuan, an increase of 13.51% year-over-year, but a decline in net profit by 10.44% year-over-year [1]. - The breakdown of revenue for 2024 includes: - Smart power and data center products: 2.60 billion yuan, up 3.51% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 35.29% [2]. - Energy storage and charging products: 1.36 billion yuan, down 49.43% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 16.63% [2]. - New energy revenue: 18 million yuan, down 53.78% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 21.95% [2]. - Supporting products: 145 million yuan, down 10.50% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 32.27% [2]. Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to recover in the following years, with estimates of 5.78 billion yuan in 2025, 7.40 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.32 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 39.10%, 27.86%, and 26.00% respectively [4]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 552 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 40.06% [4]. - The company’s valuation metrics are projected to improve, with price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 17, and 14 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].
建筑转型系列:中能建拟携手城地香江打造算力中心“国家队”,AI基建高景气业绩释放在即
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-16 12:14
建筑装饰 证券研究报告 建筑转型系列——中能建拟携手城地香江打造算力中 心"国家队",AI 基建高景气业绩释放在即 建筑转型系列:中能建拟携手城地香江,打造算力中心"国家队" 城地香江已由传统地基工程主业转型为华东区域域领先的综合算力中心整 体解决方案服务商,2024 年公司发布定增预案,拟向中能智算募集资金不 超过 6.97 亿元,用于补充流动资金及偿还债务,定增完成后中能智算将持 股 23.08%并成为公司控股股东,中国能建实现间接控股,国资委将成为公 司实控人。中国能建深度参与全国"东数西算"八大节点区域算力枢纽中心 建设,在甘肃庆阳、宁夏中卫、安徽芜湖、广东韶关、山西大同、北京经开 区等多个枢纽节点投资或布局了数据中心项目。我们认为通过本次发行,中 国能建集团将完成对华东区域优质数据中心资产的整合,推动上市公司成为 中国能建集团构建"全国一体化算力网络"的承载主体,强强联合的并购重 组或有望迎来估值重塑。 AI 基建需求有望实现高速增长,多个大单落地支撑业绩释放 智能算力需求增长,带动了数据中心资产投资景气度提升,2023 年数据中 心的投资规模达 879 亿元,同比增长超 90%;截至 2024 年 ...
拓普集团(601689):24年业绩高速增长,人形机器人布局稳步推进
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-16 11:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 26.6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.02%, and a net profit of 3 billion yuan, up 39.52% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 5.77 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.4% year-on-year, but a decline in net profit by 12.39% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively expanding its humanoid robot business and accelerating the growth of its automotive electronics segment [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 19.42%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 11.29%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points [1]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 includes: - Shock Absorption Systems: 4.402 billion yuan (YOY +2.4%), gross margin 21.10% (YOY -2.98pct) - Interior Functional Parts: 8.434 billion yuan (YOY +28.24%), gross margin 18.12% (YOY -1.79pct) - Chassis Systems: 8.203 billion yuan (YOY +33.98%), gross margin 20.42% (YOY -2.62pct) - Automotive Electronics: 1.82 billion yuan (YOY +907.63%), gross margin 19.42% (YOY -2.20pct) - Thermal Management Systems: 2.14 billion yuan (YOY +38.24%), gross margin 17.11% (YOY -1.61pct) - Electric Drive Systems: 0.13 billion yuan (YOY +624.11%), gross margin 50.90% (YOY -30.35pct) [2]. Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is leveraging its technology in online control brake systems to establish a humanoid robot actuator division, focusing on products like linear actuators and sensors [3]. - The automotive electronics business is experiencing significant growth, with rapid production release of closed-loop air suspension systems and increasing orders for line-controlled braking and steering projects [3]. - The acquisition of 100% equity in Wuhu Changpeng enhances the company's market share in interior products and deepens collaboration with leading automotive manufacturers like BYD [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 3.659 billion yuan, 4.337 billion yuan, and 5.350 billion yuan respectively, with the current market capitalization corresponding to P/E ratios of 24, 21, and 17 times for 2025-2027 [4].
法拉电子:新能源驱动核心业务增长,成长性看出海及下游延展-20250516
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-16 10:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" based on expected profit growth and current valuation levels [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing growth driven by the new energy sector, with a focus on expanding into overseas markets and downstream applications [2]. - In 2024, the revenue from new energy vehicle products is expected to account for approximately 55% of total revenue, with solar energy (including storage) contributing about 23% and industrial control about 15% [2]. - The company has achieved significant growth in net profit for Q1 2025, indicating a trend of profit recovery [2]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in Hungary aims to tap into the overseas new energy market, with projected overseas revenue of 1.005 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.09% year-on-year increase [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the full year of 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 4.772 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.99%, and a net profit of 1.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.48% [1][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.78%, and a net profit of 264 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.61% [1][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to decrease to 33.37%, down 5.18 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is projected at 21.84%, down 4.65 percentage points year-on-year [1][5]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.33 billion yuan and 1.6 billion yuan, respectively, with an expected net profit of 1.91 billion yuan in 2027 [3]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 22.92% for 2025, 15.40% for 2026, and 16.26% for 2027 [5][11].
天赐材料:电解液格局有望出清,新品类加大投入-20250516
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-16 10:25
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" with a downgrade from previous ratings [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.52 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 18.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 480 million yuan, down 74.4% year-over-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 41.64%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 30.8% year-over-year [1]. - The electrolyte business remains highly competitive, with expectations of continued market clearing in the next one to two years, leading to a reduction in backward production capacity [1]. - The company is focusing on developing high-performance electrolyte products, showcasing significant R&D advantages and strong ties with leading downstream customers, which is expected to enhance competitiveness post-industry consolidation [1][2]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to recover to 15.02 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 20% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 849 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 75.46% [5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.44 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40.34 [5][11]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 26.64 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 48.31% [11].
4月金融数据点评:信贷“小月更小”
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-16 10:14
行业报告 | 行业专题研究 银行 证券研究报告 4 月金融数据点评:信贷"小月更小" 事件:2025 年 5 月 14 日,央行公布 2025 年 4 月金融统计数据。 (1)4 月人民币贷款新增 2800 亿,同比少增 4500 亿。 (2)4 月新增社融 1.16 万亿,同比少减 1.22 万亿,社融存量同比增速较 2025 年 3 月末提升 0.3pct 至 8.7%。 (3)4 月 M2 同比增长 8.0%,环比提升 1pct;新口径 M1 同比增长 1.5%, 环比下滑 0.1pct;M2-M1 增速剪刀差环比扩张 1.1pct 至 6.5%。 点评: 1.三重因素影响下,信贷"小月更小" 作为传统信贷小月,4 月增量回落本是正常现象。但今年 4 月信贷大幅同比 少增,与 3 月信贷超预期同比多增,形成鲜明对比。对于这一现象,我们 认为有以下三点原因: 其一,信贷前置发力导致储备项目透支严重。4 月对公中长贷新增 2500 亿, 远低于 2020-2024 年同期的均值 5115 亿,同比少增 1600 亿。 其二,季末信贷冲量后,季初月份集中到期压力较大。4 月对公短贷新增 -4800 亿,创历史 ...
天赐材料(002709):电解液格局有望出清,新品类加大投入
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-16 09:12
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" with a downgrade from previous ratings [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 12.52 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 18.74%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 480 million yuan, down 74.4% year-over-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 41.64%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 30.8% year-over-year [1]. - The electrolyte business remains highly competitive, with expectations of continued market clearing in the next one to two years, leading to an increase in industry concentration and competitiveness for the company [1]. - The company is actively investing in new product categories, including solid-state electrolytes, which are currently in the pilot testing phase, indicating potential for future growth [2]. Financial Data Summary - The company is projected to have a revenue of 15.02 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 20% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover to 849.08 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 75.46% [5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.44 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40.34 [5].
2024年及2025年第一季度传媒行业回顾
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-16 09:11
证券研究报告 2025年05月16日 行业报告: 行业专题研究 传媒 2024年及2025年第一季度传媒行业回顾 作者: 1 行业评级: 上次评级: 强于大市 强于大市 维持 ( 评级) 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 分析师 孔蓉 SAC执业证书编号:S1110521020002 分析师 曹睿 SAC执业证书编号:S1110523020003 摘要 传媒行业 2025年传媒行业以景气度回升为核心趋势,一季度已见报表层面明显得到改善,估值层面传媒整体估值处在中枢水平,部分龙头公司估值仍 具优势,未来在政策改善、内容常态化供给、以及AI带来的产业变革下,我们坚定看好传媒行业25年投资机会。 游戏 2025年1-3月国内游戏市场收入同比增长18%,环比-1.2%;国内移动游戏收入同比增长20.3%,环比-2.2%;端游市场收入同比增长6.8%,环比 +3.6%;自研游戏海外收入同比增长17.9%,环比-0.6%。 影视院线 供给影响大盘复苏,行业承压。2024年影视院线板块公司实现总营收357.33亿元,yoy-14.3%;实现归母净利润-25.13亿元,yoy-348.6%。 25Q1影视院线板块公司实 ...
法拉电子(600563):新能源驱动核心业务增长,成长性看出海及下游延展
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-16 08:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" based on expected profit growth and current valuation levels [3][7]. Core Views - The company is experiencing growth driven by the new energy sector, with a focus on expanding into overseas markets and downstream applications [2]. - In 2024, the revenue from new energy vehicle products is expected to account for approximately 55% of total revenue, with solar energy (including storage) contributing about 23% and industrial control around 15% [2]. - The company has achieved significant growth in net profit for Q1 2025, indicating a trend of profit recovery [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the full year of 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 4.772 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 22.99%, and a net profit of 1.039 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.48% [1][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.204 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 22.78%, and a net profit of 264 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 22.61% [1][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to decrease to 33.37%, down 5.18 percentage points year-over-year, while the net margin is projected at 21.84%, down 4.65 percentage points year-over-year [1][5]. Future Projections - The company’s net profit is forecasted to reach 1.33 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.6 billion yuan in 2026, with a further increase to 1.91 billion yuan by 2027 [3][5]. - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit in the coming years are 22.92% and 27.66% for 2025, and 15.40% and 20.63% for 2026, respectively [5][11]. Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its presence in the overseas new energy market, with plans to establish a subsidiary in Hungary in 2024, targeting an overseas revenue of 1.005 billion yuan, which represents an 8.09% year-over-year growth [2].
天风证券晨会集萃-20250516
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-15 23:41
证券研究报告 | 2025 年 05 月 16 日 $$\overline{{{\prod_{\mathrm{DE}}}}}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup\mathrm{bd}}{\bigtriangleup}$$ 制作:产品中心 重点推荐 | 简称 | 调入时间 | | --- | --- | | 锦波生物 | 20240630 | | 百济神州-U | 20240731 | | 工业富联 | 20250127 | | 智微智能 | 20250228 | | 益方生物-U | 20250228 | | 亨通光电 | 20250331 | | 顶点软件 | 20250331 | | 内蒙一机 | 20250331 | | 圣农发展 | 20250331 | | 泽璟制药-U | 20250331 | | 布鲁可 | 20250331 | | 三维化学 | 20250331 | | 紫金矿业 | 20250331 | | 中国海外发展 | 20250331 ...