2025年 04月 11日 证券研究报告·宏观定期报告 宏观周报(4.7-4.11) "国家队"相继出手,海外市场风波不断 摘要 ● 一周大事记 国内:加快建设农业强国,"国家队"出手力托市场。4月7日,中共中央、 国务院印发《加快建设农业强国规划(2024-2035年)》,明确了农业强国 的战略定位、分阶段目标及实施路径,规划或将重构农业产业链并进一步释放 经济动能;8日,受中央汇金公司再次增持 ETF 及多部委密集表态提振,A股 主要股指全线收涨,若后续在政策加持下经济数据持续向好、企业盈利逐步改 善,A股有望迎来估值修复的阶段;同日,财政部与住建部联合发布《关于开 展 2025年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动的通知》,明确将通过财政补助、 机制建设等方式,支持不超过 20个大城市推进城市更新,随着政策和制度逐 步完善,城市更新将向更广领域、更高层次推进,助力新型城镇化提质增效, 同时也对国内基建投资起到支撑作用:9日,国务院新闻办公室发布《关于中 美经贸关系若干问题的中方立场》白皮书,系统阐述了中方对中美经贸摩擦的 核心立场、历史成就、履约实践以及对美方单边主义的批判,为未来谈判没定 "平等对话"与"互 ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 04 月 11 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（4.7-4.11） [Table_Author] 分析师：叶凡 执业证号：S1250520060001 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：yefan@swsc.com.cn 分析师：刘彦宏 执业证号：S1250523030002 电话：010-55758502 邮箱：liuyanhong@swsc.com.cn "国家队"相继出手，海外市场风波不断 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：加快建设农业强国，"国家队"出手力托市场。4月 7日，中共中央、 国务院印发《加快建设农业强国规划（2024－2035 年）》，明确了农业强国 的战略定位、分阶段目标及实施路径，规划或将重构农业产业链并进一步释放 经济动能；8日，受中央汇金公司再次增持 ETF及多部委密集表态提振，A 股 主要股指全线收涨，若后续在政策加持下经济数据持续向好、企业盈利逐步改 善，A 股有望迎来估值修复的阶段；同日，财政部与住建部联合发布《关于开 展 2025年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动的通知》，明确将通过 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 04 月 11 日 证券研究报告•市场投资策略 2. 交运行业观点 胡光怿 S1250522070002 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 近期美国关税政策反复无常，"对等关税"政策落地且对中国关税进一步升级，美国针对中 国的总关税税率目前已达 145%，但对多数国家实施 90天的关税暂缓。面对挑战，我国展现 出强大战略定力与系统性应对能力，迅速且果断地公布了一系列反制措施，以中央汇金为代 表的国家队也大幅增持 ETF，出手托底股市。当前形势虽存挑战，但我国政策储备充足、经 济底盘稳固。央行或将择机降准降息，财政政策同步发力，护航实体经济稳健复苏。 风险提示：关税对国内经济冲击超预期，美国后续关税加码超预期。 中央周边工作会议 4月 8日至 9日在北京举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席 习近平出席会议并发表重要讲话。会议指出，当前我国同周边关系处于近代以来最好的时期， 同时也进入周边格局和世界变局深度联动的重要阶段。要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会 主义思想为指导，紧紧围绕党和国家中心任务，统筹国内国际两个大局、发展安全两件大事， 高举人类命运共 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange suspended trading of the Yin Hua New Economy ETF (QDII) due to the un - receding premium in secondary - market trading prices on March 31, 2025 [2][14]. - As of the end of 2024, Central Huijin's holdings of ETFs reached 317.3 billion shares, with a market value of 1.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 81.6 billion shares and 462.4 billion yuan in market value compared to June 2024. Huijin covered the A - share market through three broad - based products [2][14]. Summary by Directory 1 ETF and Index Product Focus - On March 31, 2025, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange suspended the trading of the Silver Hua Industrial Bank Southern Dongying S&P China New Economy Industry ETF (QDII) from 11:12 until the market closed due to the un - receding premium in secondary - market trading prices [2][14]. - By the end of 2024, Central Huijin's ETF holdings reached 317.3 billion shares, worth 1.05 trillion yuan, with significant increases in holdings of CSI 300, CSI 1000, and STAR Market - related ETFs [2][14]. 2 Last Week's Market Performance Review 2.1 Main Asset Index Performance - Last week, domestic equity broad - based indices all declined, with the ChiNext Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR 50, and SSE 50 down 2.95%, 1.37%, 1.19%, 1.11%, and 0.65% respectively. Major bond indices all rose, and overseas equity and commodity indices all fell [3][15]. 2.2 Shenwan Primary Industry Performance - Most Shenwan primary industries declined last week. Utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors led the gains, while the automobile, power equipment, and household appliance sectors led the losses [19]. 3 Valuation - Last week, most valuation quantiles of major equity broad - based indices declined. Only the Wind All - A and CSI 500 valuations rose by 0.29% and 0.04% respectively. Most Shenwan primary industry valuation quantiles also declined [22][29]. 4 ETF Scale Changes and Trading Volume 4.1 ETF Scale Changes - Last week, non - monetary ETF scale decreased by 6.476 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 37.013 billion yuan. Commodity, bond, and cross - border non - Hong Kong stock ETFs saw scale increases, while cross - border Hong Kong stock and equity ETFs saw scale decreases [34]. - Among equity broad - based ETFs, the Guozheng 2000 theme ETF had the largest scale increase, and the CSI 300 theme ETF had the largest scale decrease. The CSI 300 theme ETF had the largest net inflow, and the CSI 500 theme ETF had the largest net outflow [34]. 4.2 ETF Trading Volume - Compared with the week before last, the daily average trading volume of some ETFs increased significantly, including the GF CSI Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF in cross - border non - Hong Kong stock ETFs, etc. [48]. 5 ETF Performance - Last week, the Southern Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF in cross - border non - Hong Kong stock ETFs, the Invesco Great Wall CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF in cross - border Hong Kong stock ETFs, etc., performed best in their respective categories [7][51]. 6 ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - This week, the total margin buying amount was 48.535 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.578 billion yuan from last week. The total margin selling volume was 171 million shares, a decrease of 70 million shares from last week [54]. 7 Current ETF Market Scale - As of last Thursday (April 3, 2025), there were 1,111 listed ETFs in the market, with a total scale of 3.804346 trillion yuan. Among equity ETFs, scale - based index ETFs had the largest scale [55]. 8 ETF Listing and Issuance - Last week, 4 ETFs were listed for trading, and 11 new ETFs were established, mostly passive index funds. Since April, 4 ETFs have been issued, with a total issuance scale of 30.35 billion yuan [8][67][68].

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 04 月 04 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（3.31-4.4） 科技金融加快部署，美国关税大棒挥舞 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：高标准农田建设有望提速，科技金融全面部署。3 月 30 日，中共中央 办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《逐步把永久基本农田建成高标准农田实施方案》， 推动我国耕地质量从"量"到"质"全面提升，为农业可持续发展和乡村振兴 提供坚实支撑；31 日，国务院国资委党委发布《全面贯彻落实党的二十届三 中全会精神 在推进国资国企治理现代化上取得实质性突破》，为国企发展提 供清晰的路径框架，推动经济结构升级与新质生产力培育；4月 1日，国家金 融监督管理总局、科技部、国家发改委联合发布《银行业保险业科技金融高质 量发展实施方案》，全面部署科技金融支持体系建设，未来，科技金融有望成 为撬动创新链、产业链和资金链深度融合的关键支点，加快新质生产力的培育 与释放；4月 2日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅发布《关于完善价格治理 机制的意见》，推进市场化定价深化、监管体系优化与重点领域改革，助力我 国经济向高质量发展 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 04 月 06 日 证券研究报告•市场投资策略 美国对等关税落地政策解读 当地时间 4月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫宣布对贸易伙伴征收所谓的"对等关税"措施。 美国对中国实施 34%的对等关税（叠加今年以来已经征收的 20%芬太尼关税，今年美国对中 国征收 54%的关税），对欧盟实施 20%的对等关税，对韩国实施 25%的对等关税，对日本 实施 24%的对等关税。此次"对等关税"计算方式采取的是简单粗暴的综合税率=（美方出 口额-美方进口额）/美方进口额，力度明显超出市场此前预期，全球资产价格走势也反映了由 关税冲击带来的衰退预期。美国股市剧烈震荡，连续 2 日暴跌，欧股和亚太股市也出现较大 幅度下跌，债市迎来大量避险资金，市场对美联储年内降息预期上调至 100BP。 中国在上一轮贸易战之后，不断增大对第三国转口贸易，以及出海设厂投资。而此次"对等 关税"计划不仅针对中国，还对全球几乎所有与美国存在贸易逆差的国家征收不同幅度的关 税，其中包括中国企业出海以及转口贸易较多的越南、泰国、柬埔寨等，征收的对等关税税 率分别为 46%、36%、49%：从对美顺差占 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 04 月 02 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 保利物业（6049.HK）房地产 目标价：——港元 买入 （维持） 当前价：31.95 港元 管理规模稳健增长，分红比例提升 数据来源：聚源数据 -4% 8% 20% 31% 43% 55% 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 25/3 保利物业 恒生指数 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 52 周区间(港元) | 24.75-39.85 | | 3 个月平均成交量(百万) | 1.12 | | 流通股数(亿) | 5.53 | | 市值(亿) | 176.79 | 相关研究 [Table_Report] 1. 保利物业（6049.HK）：业绩稳健增长， 外拓量质同步提升 (2024-08-21) 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 风险提示：增值服务不及预期、管理规模拓展不及预期等风险。 | 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 04 月 02 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 保利物业（6049.HK）房地产 目标价：——港元 买入 （维持） 当前价：31.95 港元 管理规模稳健增长，分红比例提升 风险提示：增值服务不及预期、管理规模拓展不及预期等风险。 | 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 16342 | 17843 | 19454 | 20982 | | 增长率 | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 1474 | 1590 | 1741 | 1863 | | 增长率 | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.0% | | 每股收益 EPS | 2.66 | 2.87 | 3.15 | 3.37 | | 净资产收益率 | 15.19% | 14.87% | 14.84% | 14.56% | | PE | 10.66 | 10.39 | 9.49 | 8.87 | 数据来源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 97.92 CNY over the next six months, while the current price is 81.05 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 25.8% in 2024, but excluding the impact of a large order from the previous year, there was a 7.4% year-on-year growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 58.2% [7]. - The small molecule CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business is steadily growing, with a revenue of 45.7 billion CNY in 2024, showing an 8.9% increase when excluding large orders. The company has a robust order reserve for commercialized projects [7]. - Emerging businesses, particularly in chemical and biological macromolecules, are accelerating growth, with a 13.3% increase in revenue for the chemical macromolecule segment in 2024. The company expects significant growth in this area in 2025 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 58.0 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 66.7 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 14.9%. The net profit is expected to rise to 11.1 billion CNY, marking a 16.4% increase [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.06 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26, 23, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12][10]. Business Segments - The small molecule CDMO segment is expected to see revenue growth of 10.7% in 2025, with a gross margin of 48.5%. The emerging business segment is projected to grow by 31.4% in 2025, with a gross margin of 26.7% [8][10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its capabilities in the production of GLP-1 peptide projects, with significant increases in production capacity expected in 2025 [7]. Valuation - The report compares the company to peers such as WuXi AppTec and Kanglong Chemical, noting that the average PE for comparable companies is 23, slightly lower than the company's valuation. The company is considered a leader in the small molecule CDMO space, justifying a premium valuation [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Communication Technology Co., Ltd. (688009) with a target price of 7.20 CNY over the next six months, while the current price is 5.58 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 326.44 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 11.98% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 34.95 billion CNY, reflecting a slight increase of 0.50% [7]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed better-than-expected performance with a revenue of 117.0 billion CNY, down 5.6% year-on-year, but a net profit of 11.4 billion CNY, up 24.7% year-on-year [7]. - The company is optimizing its business structure, leading to improved profitability, with a gross margin of 29.2% in 2024, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 326.44 billion CNY, with projections of 352.37 billion CNY for 2025, 377.09 billion CNY for 2026, and 401.71 billion CNY for 2027, indicating a recovery with growth rates of 7.94%, 7.02%, and 6.53% respectively [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 34.95 billion CNY in 2024 to 38.60 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 10% over the next three years [10]. Business Segments - The rail transit control system business generated 295.5 billion CNY in revenue for 2024, with a growth of 1.0% year-on-year. The equipment manufacturing segment saw an 8.0% increase, while the system delivery service segment experienced a decline of 6.4% [7]. - The overseas business segment achieved significant growth, with revenue of 24.4 billion CNY, up 64.2% year-on-year, driven by projects in North America and Southeast Asia [7]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the rail transit control system sector and is expected to benefit from the ongoing equipment replacement cycle in the railway sector, aligning with national policies for large-scale equipment updates [7]. - The company is also expanding into the low-altitude economy, leveraging its technological advantages in rail transit control to develop drone manufacturing and service operations, with successful applications already demonstrated in several cities [7].