美债策略周报 2025.3.10-2025.3.16 分析师： 曹潮 中央编号： BVH841 联系电话： 852-96581360 邮箱： caochao@cnzsqh.hk 1 3 2 2月CPI和PPI数据均超预期回落，但市场对关税担忧仍存，导致长端美债利率居高不下，10Y美债周内 累计上行1.1个bps。 美债市场基本面、货币政策和资金面： 基本面与货币政策：2月CPI同比回落至2.8%，低于预期2.9%和前值3%，说明1月的偏高读数主要源于 季节性残留，进而导致部分商品和服务价格上涨幅度被高估；但2月通胀数据并没有反应特朗普关税落地 后的影响，市场对此担忧仍存；货币政策方面，由于下周召开FOMC会议，美联储官员处于"静默期"。 流动性和供需：准备金回升至3.4万亿美元，财政部一般账户延续回落态势。鉴于债务上限解决的时点前 后，商业银行准备金规模或将面临较大波动，进而对美债市场流动性带来潜在不利影响，为防止类似 2019年的流动性危机重演，美联储可能最早会在5月结束缩表，并在3月会议中释放结束缩表信号。 美债市场展望及策略：经济"类滞胀"+财政部影子"QE"重现，长端美债迎来重要做多窗口期 2月CPI ...

l 港股市场回购周统计数据 l 上市公司回购的意义与作用 港股市场回购周统计数据 3 港股市场回购统计周报 2025.3.10-2025.3.16 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 港股市场回购周统计数据（2025.3.10-2025.3.16） l 周回购数据总汇 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 期间回购金额 | 期间回购数量 | 回购数量占 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万港元) | (万股) | 总股本比例 | | 3323.HK | 中国建材 | 339,224.97 | 84,174.93 | 11.09% | | 0005.HK | 汇丰控股 | 102,101.96 | 1,186.80 | 0.07% | | 0019.HK | 太古股份公司A | 7,707.88 | 111.50 | 0.08% | | 1972.HK | 太古地产 | 4,326.10 | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the valuation levels of the Hong Kong stock market, focusing on key indices and industry sectors [4][18]. - It highlights the current price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios across various industries, indicating which sectors are undervalued or overvalued [20][24]. Valuation of Key Indices - The report provides valuation insights for major indices such as the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) and the Hang Seng Index (HSI), but specific numerical data is not included in the provided text [6][10]. Industry Valuation Levels - The report identifies industries with low PE ratios, specifically noting that daily consumer goods and utilities are undervalued, with PE valuation percentiles below 20% [20]. - Other sectors with PE ratios below 40% include energy, discretionary consumption, and utilities [20]. - Industries with relatively high PE valuations (above 50%) include materials, healthcare, information technology, and telecommunications [20]. - For PB valuations, utilities are noted as being undervalued with percentiles below 10%, while materials, daily consumer goods, healthcare, and real estate are below 30% [24]. - Energy, discretionary consumption, and telecommunications are highlighted as having PB valuations above 50% [24]. AH Share Premium/Discount Levels - The report discusses the premium/discount levels of AH shares, but specific details or numerical data are not provided in the text [26].

港股市场估值周报 2025.2.17-2025.2.23 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 1 目录 2 l 港股市场重要指数估值 l 港股市场各行业估值水平 l AH股溢价/折价水平 港股市场 重要指数估值 3 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 4 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 5 资料来源：Wind 6 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 资料来源：Wind 7 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 资料来源：Wind 8 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 资料来源：Wind 9 资料来源：Wind，浙商国际 数据选取2018年初至今的估值水平。 13 港股市场 各行业估值水平 10 港股市场各行业估值水平 资料来源：Wind，浙商国际 11 l 港股市场各行业PE估值水平 n 我们选取了2 ...

港股市场策略周报 2025.2.17-2025.2.23 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： 2 n 本周市场情绪持续发酵，成交量进一步放大，市场继续强势上攻，市场焦点仍聚焦在科技板块。本周恒生综指/恒生 指数/恒生科技分别+4.06%/+3.79%/+6.03%。本周市场恒生一级行业板块互有涨跌，科技相关行业继续表现强 势。本周资讯科技业涨幅最大，周涨幅超10%；医疗保健行业在低估值和AI应用炒作的带动下涨幅近9%；电讯业 则受益于云计算和AI应用概念的助推，涨幅超6%。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点上升至64.3%左右，估值已接近5年均值的水平。 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：当前处于经济数据真空期，政策端继续在各领域持续发力，民营经济座谈会助推当下科技行情进一步发酵。 n 资金面：美国通胀预期高企，经济数据明显走弱，滞胀风险预期明显升温；科技牛市继续 ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 黄金跨市场价差多维透视 ──短期窗口再度收窄，政策方向仍为关键 商 品 期 货 报告导读 — 专 题 报 告 由于标准差异、时间因素以及成本变化等各种因素共同影响下，不同市场 间黄金往往存在一定的价差。当前中美与欧美价差均出现波动扩大的现 象，特别是欧美价差，在美国加关税预期的影响下，一度大幅走低，但进 入 2 月下旬以来再度回到一到两个标准差之间的水平。在这一价差水平下 进行跨市场套利并不能确保足够的收益，所以当前跨市场套利的机会仍然 较小。未来可以继续关注美国关税预期，与汇率变化可能带来的操作机会。 投资要点 黄金市场介绍 全球各地的黄金交易市场为黄金提供了全天候的交 易服务。其中美洲、欧洲和亚洲的黄金交易市场成交 最为活跃，对全球黄金定价拥有极大的影响力。 黄金价差走势 全球黄金市场交易的黄金内在本质实际上并无明显 差别。理论上黄金在全球各大交易所价格应该保持一 致。但由于各种因素，会使得不同市场间金价往往存 在一定价差。 形成原因分析 从实际情况出发可以发现，中、美、欧三大黄金市场 金价经常出现不一致的波动，会出 ...

Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. has intensified sanctions against Iran and Russia, raising concerns about their oil exports, but current data shows no significant impact on their maritime exports[3] - Future U.S. sanctions on Iran may escalate to "extreme sanctions" which could further affect oil supply dynamics[3] Economic Indicators - Major economies like China and the Eurozone saw a rebound in January CPI, while U.S. manufacturing PMI remains above the threshold, indicating mixed economic signals[3] - Key indicators such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates need to be monitored for future economic trends[3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ has extended its production cut of 3.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2026, with voluntary cuts from 8 countries delayed until April 2025[3] - Non-OPEC+ countries, including the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, are expected to gradually increase production, potentially covering the global demand increase in 2025[3] Price Forecast - The Brent crude oil price is expected to fluctuate between $70 and $85 per barrel, reflecting a supply surplus in the medium to long term[4] - The overall market sentiment suggests a strategy of short-selling on price spikes due to geopolitical tensions[5] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic improvements, escalation of geopolitical tensions, and lower-than-expected U.S. production increases[6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Chinese bond market experienced upward pressure on long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond rising by 3 basis points and the 30-year bond by 4 basis points, while the 1-year bond increased by 16 basis points, leading to an inversion in the yield curve between 3-year and 1-year bonds [2][9][12] - The January credit data showed a significant increase in new loans, with a total of 5.2 trillion yuan, which is 379.3 billion yuan more than the previous year, indicating a recovery in medium to long-term loans for enterprises, particularly in the construction and manufacturing sectors [5][37] - The report suggests that the current tightening of liquidity in the market is leading to a bear flattening of the yield curve, but there remains value in long-term bonds after overcoming the pressure from liquidity [5][47] Group 2 - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with indications of increased easing measures to support economic growth, particularly in light of weak demand [5][45][47] - The issuance of bonds in the primary market was robust, with government bonds totaling 3.536 billion yuan and local government bonds at 1.615 billion yuan, reflecting a strong supply side in the bond market [17][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-frequency data related to credit, consumption, and real estate to gauge the effectiveness of policy measures and the overall economic recovery [47][47]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic high-frequency data indicates a mixed performance across various sectors, with production rates showing divergence compared to the same period last year [11]. - Consumer spending has seen a significant boost during the Spring Festival, with box office revenues reaching new highs and passenger car sales remaining at elevated levels [17]. - The real estate market is experiencing a post-holiday recovery, with increased transaction volumes in both new and second-hand housing [21][22]. - Recent data shows a decline in domestic and international shipping rates, indicating a weakening trend in import and export activities [27]. - Price indices for agricultural products and pork continue to decline, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures in these sectors [31]. Summary by Sections Production - The production sector shows varied performance, with the operating rates for different industries fluctuating significantly compared to last year [11]. Consumption - The film box office revenue for the week reached 646 million yuan, down from 710.5 million yuan, indicating a decrease of 64.5 million yuan [7]. - Daily average sales of passenger cars (retail) were reported at 75,966.2 units, down from 77,605.85 units, a decrease of 1,639.65 units [7]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 115.41 million square meters, up 49.7% from the previous week [7]. - The transaction area for second-hand housing in major cities increased significantly, indicating a resurgence in market activity [21]. Import and Export - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased to 1,758.82, down 137.83 from the previous value [8]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 792, a decrease of 23 from the previous week [8]. Price Inflation - The wholesale price index for agricultural products dropped to 121.94, down 2.62 from the previous week [8]. - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 21.78 yuan per kilogram, down 1.03 yuan [8]. Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing increased to 784.63 million, up 200.28 million from the previous week [8]. - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) decreased to 14,019.71, down 581.14 from the previous week [8].

报告导读 研 究 — 期 货 研 究 报 告 2024 年 12 月以来金价表现亮眼，伦敦金现价格较 12 月 2600 美元/盎司的低 点升至 2869 美元/盎司，累计涨幅超过 10%。与此同时，纽约 COMEX 黄金期货 活跃合约价与伦敦金现价的价差持续走高，1 月期间两者的价差一度达到 60 美元/盎司，升水率一度超过 2%；黄金期现价格大幅走高的背后，一是源于特 朗普关税政策担忧，市场认为黄金进出口或将受到贸易战的波及；二是市场的 套利需求增加，2024 年 11 月以来，机构投资者便开始加大黄金现货的囤货力 度，央行的买盘力量对黄金期货溢价也有一定提振。短期来看，鉴于贸易战存 在进一步升级可能，黄金交易商囤货和央行买盘力量的双重支撑下，黄金期现 溢价仍将处于高位，这将使得外盘黄金的跨市场套利机会仍存，值得持续关注； 另外，鉴于当前黄金仍处在"正向市场"，主力合约和远期合约存在约 20 美 元/盎司的价差，因此还可以留意黄金期货主力连续合约在跨月时可能存在的 "向上跳空"行情。 | 投资要点 | | --- | 特朗普关税政策担忧和套利需求推动金价走高 2 月 1 日，特朗普政府签署行政令，对来自加 ...